Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Boris in his conference speech today talked of a UK giga-factory.

Does anyone have potential details of this as a practical thing, or was his statement just rhetoric for the delegates?

His assertion of current uk production levels of electric vehicles looked very optimistic unless there is some market that I am ignorant of.

Looking at the renewable & BEV markets it Is clear to me that there is a world wide shortage of batteries, such that giga factory like facilities will be needed in all the major developed nations, but as far as I can tell this needs is not being addressed in any practical way by most nations. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

Regards,

[dspp]

Boris in his conference speech today talked of a UK giga-factory.

Does anyone have potential details of this as a practical thing, or was his statement just rhetoric for the delegates?

His assertion of current uk production levels of electric vehicles looked very optimistic unless there is some market that I am ignorant of.

Looking at the renewable & BEV markets it Is clear to me that there is a world wide shortage of batteries, such that giga factory like facilities will be needed in all the major developed nations, but as far as I can tell this needs is not being addressed in any practical way by most nations. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

Regards,

Osy,
My calcs are that UK can absorb one gigantic factory at least for ev plus stationary. However I see very little prospect of ul attracting one unless it ponies up uneconomic subsidies. Brexit + toxic anti renewables Cons are a very poisonous mix . Just as they were with the wind turbine plants where the UK should have gained 3or 4 but just got the 1 (the hull blade plant). So this looks like another con job to me. Subscale plants are another matter but we know what happens to them .......
Regards
Dspp

[odysseus2000]

Osy,
My calcs are that UK can absorb one gigantic factory at least for ev plus stationary. However I see very little prospect of ul attracting one unless it ponies up uneconomic subsidies. Brexit + toxic anti renewables Cons are a very poisonous mix . Just as they were with the wind turbine plants where the UK should have gained 3or 4 but just got the 1 (the hull blade plant). So this looks like another con job to me. Subscale plants are another matter but we know what happens to them .......
Regards
Dspp

Sadly that is my conclusion too.

I have come across several media articles about various political parties and various regional politicians all saying we need a big battery factory, but I can't find anything of substance. No sites, no one recruiting etc.

Great pity that when we need an entrepreneur to do this we don't seem to have one. I was listening to Lord Adonis plugging on about HS2 and how only government could do it as it wasn't commercial and that was what government should do with growing disbelief and vexation. The level of disconnect between the tax and spenders and sensible projects is so obvious that I want to believe someone will seize the moment and build a fabrication storage infra structure for our times, but all I get is the sort of non-substance cons in Boris's speech.

Even folk who believe Musk is the anti-christ have to admit that he is at least trying to put his money where his mouth is on storage and BEV.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Boris in his conference speech today talked of a UK giga-factory.

Does anyone have potential details of this as a practical thing, or was his statement just rhetoric for the delegates?

His assertion of current uk production levels of electric vehicles looked very optimistic unless there is some market that I am ignorant of.

Looking at the renewable & BEV markets it Is clear to me that there is a world wide shortage of batteries, such that giga factory like facilities will be needed in all the major developed nations, but as far as I can tell this needs is not being addressed in any practical way by most nations. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

Regards,

Osy,
My calcs are that UK can absorb one gigantic factory at least for ev plus stationary. However I see very little prospect of ul attracting one unless it ponies up uneconomic subsidies. Brexit + toxic anti renewables Cons are a very poisonous mix . Just as they were with the wind turbine plants where the UK should have gained 3or 4 but just got the 1 (the hull blade plant). So this looks like another con job to me. Subscale plants are another matter but we know what happens to them .......
Regards
Dspp

On a phone so short and sweet.

Never believe anything until Borus has bought it up in a desperate attempt to create "hope's in the electorate.

If possible you want to build your batteries near your car plant , and the number of those in the uk is falling with no reason to predict a turn around. Plus other aspects and unpredictability of Brexit. The UK isn't the last place I'd build a battery plant, but it's a long way down the list.

[odysseus2000]

For all those who bitch about Tesla build quality, a problem has occurred with fabrication of the Toyota Supra sports car that is made by BMW. Yes, Toyota have subcontracted one of their cars to BMW to make which seems to me about as dumb a move as one can imagine, given how Toyota have always sold their motors on the quality of their own build in their own factories.

Apparently about 7 Toyota made by BMW have been sold with seat belt welds that may fail in an accident. I am finding it difficult to believe that it is 7 and how Toyota/BMW can be sure and they seem to be recalling a lot more than 7 with lots of steps being taken to contact the owners and this with the promise that anyone who has a bad car will be given a new one:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyo ... -seatbelt/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
If possible you want to build your batteries near your car plant , and the number of those in the uk is falling with no reason to predict a turn around. Plus other aspects and unpredictability of Brexit. The UK isn't the last place I'd build a battery plant, but it's a long way down the list.

Ideally the UK would have its own BEV factories, but even without that there is a good case to be made for having a battery fab plant to supply storage which imho is essential for renewable energy grid.

Currently, unless I have numbers wrong, there is a huge mismatch between battery supply and demand.

What ever negative opinion anyone has of the UK and/or UK workers, management, politicians etc there is imho no question that we have everything that is needed to have a state of the art battery factory here in terms of design, skilled workers, supporting infra structure etc and a ready market for product.

This is a huge opportunity that it would be good to take rather than saying it would be good and having the opportunity taken by others.

Regards,

[Howard]

Two interesting Tesla developments:

Tesla Delivers 97,000 Model 3, S & X Globally In Q3

https://insideevs.com/news/374215/tesla ... eliveries/

Insideevs puts a brave face on this shortfall, but this figure is disappointing, especially as it indicates a further decline in sales of more profitable models and is well below the company forecasts.

The FT covers the release of the “summon” facility by Tesla and the numerous twitter stories about the drawbacks of this facility. It makes an interesting point about the possible financial motive:

“Still, despite the negative press it’s generated so far, releasing an undercooked Smart Summon into the wild might have one positive effect for the company: generating revenue.
Tesla, at the end of the second quarter had $883m of deferred revenue on its balance sheet, some of which will be from customers who have paid for Full Self Driving or Enhanced Autopilot.
With the release of Smart Summon it might now be able to book a portion of this revenue through the income statement, boosting its top line.”

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/10/02/ ... meet-wall/

Any help to the top line is going to be welcome as these sales figures suggest cash flow is going to be challenged.

We will have to wait to see what the market makes of the sales figures.

At the moment the Freemont plant production capacity appears to be able to supply global demand. One wonders how Tesla are going to use the production from the Chinese plant next quarter?

regards

Howard

[Howard]

This is a thought-provoking article on road safety. It talks about possible reasons for pedestrian deaths increasing and possible reasons why.

Worth a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... rless-cars

regards

Howard

[redsturgeon]

This is a thought-provoking article on road safety. It talks about possible reasons for pedestrian deaths increasing and possible reasons why.

Worth a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... rless-cars

regards

Howard

I read this article this morning. Fascinating, my own view is that move to SUVs has had a large impact (so to speak). Appalling really though, would be be so accepting of this level of death and injury in any other area of life?

I think that autonomous driving could make a large difference but we need to accept a different approach to moving from A to B.

John

[odysseus2000]

Kind of think part of the problem is the increased attempts by politicians to have more cyclists, walkers etc. Everywhere I visit in the UK has cycle tracks & pedestrian tracks & this encourages folk to use them, but they are not safe, no amount of lines on the floor or small curbs will stop a car from crossing them but their existence makes folk think they are safer so they are not so frightened or risk adverse of roads as they once where.

It would be expensive to put in railings, tall curbs even active safety barriers as on cars etc, but they would save lives.

It would be good if the self driving systems worked & took emotion out of travel, but we have issues now that could be addressed with less advanced tech.

Regards,

[dspp]

Lithium attracts a mobility premium. So during this stage of the adoption cycle it is primarily going into mobile devices and into electric vehicles. Since the uk has neither of these industries, no raw materials, and no cheap energy, then the uk is highly disadvantaged in getting a battery factory.

Except of course in the minds of those who just want to con the electorate about industrial reality. After 70 years of dumbing down on industry I am afraid that these days even the uk politicians (especially the poloticians) and of course the uk media no longer understand these truths.

Dspp

[odysseus2000]

Lithium attracts a mobility premium. So during this stage of the adoption cycle it is primarily going into mobile devices and into electric vehicles. Since the uk has neither of these industries, no raw materials, and no cheap energy, then the uk is highly disadvantaged in getting a battery factory.

Except of course in the minds of those who just want to con the electorate about industrial reality. After 70 years of dumbing down on industry I am afraid that these days even the uk politicians (especially the poloticians) and of course the uk media no longer understand these truths.

Dspp

Yes, but prior to the 1820's there was no history of mass production and the making of industrial goods in the UK or anywhere. Yet an industrial revolution was begun here and it spread across the world.

In the early years of 20th century there was no history of horseless carriages and yet we created many makers of horseless carriages even though we had few raw material for fuels, most had to be imported.

I am pessimistic as to the chances of creating a UK gigafactory and UK BEV manufacturing, but it is imho a huge opportunity that could be exploited to create substantial profits and good quality employment. It is imho not a question of capability or resources but one of will and sadly for now there appears to be no will to exploit this opportunity either by private enterprise or government or a mix. IMHO this is a huge shame on our capitalist heritage made worse by the con games being played by all the political parties suggesting that what should be happening is happening even though it is not.

Regards

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
If possible you want to build your batteries near your car plant , and the number of those in the uk is falling with no reason to predict a turn around. Plus other aspects and unpredictability of Brexit. The UK isn't the last place I'd build a battery plant, but it's a long way down the list.

Ideally the UK would have its own BEV factories, but even without that there is a good case to be made for having a battery fab plant to supply storage which imho is essential for renewable energy grid.

Currently, unless I have numbers wrong, there is a huge mismatch between battery supply and demand.

What ever negative opinion anyone has of the UK and/or UK workers, management, politicians etc there is imho no question that we have everything that is needed to have a state of the art battery factory here in terms of design, skilled workers, supporting infra structure etc and a ready market for product.

This is a huge opportunity that it would be good to take rather than saying it would be good and having the opportunity taken by others.

Regards,

No longer on a train longer version:

Just lost an 80% complete long response because it didn't survive being timed out while I ate supper angry summary of the no longer on a train longer version:

There are a number of things to evaluate when selecting where to put a battery manufactory.

1. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of green energy will massively reduce the environmental impact of building batteries.

2. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of cheap energy will massively reduce the cost of building batteries.

For 1 & 2 see for example Northvolt One in Sweden, built to take advantage of massive Hydro generation by a municipally owned energy company with an obsession about zero emission energy which turns out the cheapest green energy in Europe, by a company aiming to create the world's greenest battery whilst still being market competitive.

The UK has a decent energy mix, but nothing like Skelleftea and it isn't cheap.

3. Build near your inputs. For example again, Northvolt One. There are a number of places in Europe which could make a claim to be conveniently close to the raw materials required for a battery, the UK is not amongst them.

4. Build near your destination. For example Tesla in the states, Northvolt/VW joint venture in Germany. The UK is losing car plants like they are going out of fashion, if you are looking to build batteries for BEV's almost anywhere in Europe would be a better bet.

5. Build your batteries where they can supply numerous potential markets across frictionless borders. Eg. 27 countries not trying to leave the EU.

3, 4 and 5 are more damning for the UK. We don't produce the materials or the end product and we are currently trying to leave the single market of 27 other countries which contains 309 automotive production and assembly plants. If you threw a dart at a map of Europe you'd do well to hit a spot which does worse on these considerations.

At the moment static storage seems to be envisoned as running off ex-BEV batteries given a second life when they no longer have the legs to push your car along, so given the explosion in BEV's you hold as inevitable why would you need to manufacture batteries for static storage? Interestingly another aspect of Northvolt is that they are starting out with a strong emphasis on the entire life cycle of the cell, including recycling in to the production process, so that may change with static and mobile storage solutions diverging in the technology they use as ex-BEV power packs become more valuable as materials for new BEV power packs rather than a waste product incorporated in to static storage to get more years out of the cell.

[BobbyD]

Tesla blames 5-year-old after finger crushed by Model X 'ice breaker'

SAN JOSE, Calif. (KGO) -- Emergency crews struggled for two hours to free a little girl's finger from the door of a Tesla Model X. That incident is at the center of a lawsuit filed in San Jose Federal Court, but Tesla is trying to have the lawsuit dismissed and is blaming the 5-year-old and her parents.

The lawsuit claims the design of the front door on the Model X has a dangerous defect, but the company contends the SUV operated correctly in this case.

- https://abc7news.com/automotive/exclusi ... r/5585817/

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD


There are a number of things to evaluate when selecting where to put a battery manufactory.

1. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of green energy will massively reduce the environmental impact of building batteries.

2. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of cheap energy will massively reduce the cost of building batteries.

For 1 & 2 see for example Northvolt One in Sweden, built to take advantage of massive Hydro generation by a municipally owned energy company with an obsession about zero emission energy which turns out the cheapest green energy in Europe, by a company aiming to create the world's greenest battery whilst still being market competitive.

The UK has a decent energy mix, but nothing like Skelleftea and it isn't cheap.

3. Build near your inputs. For example again, Northvolt One. There are a number of places in Europe which could make a claim to be conveniently close to the raw materials required for a battery, the UK is not amongst them.

4. Build near your destination. For example Tesla in the states, Northvolt/VW joint venture in Germany. The UK is losing car plants like they are going out of fashion, if you are looking to build batteries for BEV's almost anywhere in Europe would be a better bet.

5. Build your batteries where they can supply numerous potential markets across frictionless borders. Eg. 27 countries not trying to leave the EU.

3, 4 and 5 are more damning for the UK. We don't produce the materials or the end product and we are currently trying to leave the single market of 27 other countries which contains 309 automotive production and assembly plants. If you threw a dart at a map of Europe you'd do well to hit a spot which does worse on these considerations.

At the moment static storage seems to be envisoned as running off ex-BEV batteries given a second life when they no longer have the legs to push your car along, so given the explosion in BEV's you hold as inevitable why would you need to manufacture batteries for static storage? Interestingly another aspect of Northvolt is that they are starting out with a strong emphasis on the entire life cycle of the cell, including recycling in to the production process, so that may change with static and mobile storage solutions diverging in the technology they use as ex-BEV power packs become more valuable as materials for new BEV power packs rather than a waste product incorporated in to static storage to get more years out of the cell.

This imho is a surrender thesis.

All we now know is that currently BEV powered by renewables are much better than ICE for many reason including:

No greenhouse or other pollutants in use, better performance, use for off peak power for charging...

A new tech may make them obsolete but for now they are better than all practical alternatives.

Given these facts there is a profit opportunity for business that can make & sell this tech. In the uk we have good university to supply the technical knowledge, good infra structure for movement of parts/supplies, an economy that would benefit from a growth industry & by making our own BEV & renewable energy we decouple ourselves from the reliance on foreign energy.

There is no way that in a prosperous uk that affluent folk will buy second hand cast off batteries for storage. Try flogging second hand stuff of unknown durability to someone like Howard & see how far you go.

One can of course find reasons not to do this, just as after Dunkirk we could have said we can't compete with the Nazi war machine & so we must surrender & many did say that.

There is a huge commercial opportunity here. I fear it will be missed but for now there is a slight hope that some of the rhetoric by many politicians might lead to the opportunity being taken.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

This imho is a surrender thesis.

Come on Boris, don't you have more important things to be working on?

Given these facts there is a profit opportunity for business that can make & sell this tech.

As a part owner of Northvolt I hope you are right, but I wouldn't build a battery manufactory in the UK for the reasons outlined above.

There is no way that in a prosperous uk that affluent folk will buy second hand cast off batteries for storage. Try flogging second hand stuff of unknown durability to someone like Howard & see how far you go.

Howard is perfectly free to pay more for brand new batteries with charge cycle profiles that his home system doesn't need if he wants to, but degradation of BEV batteries which means they are no longer suitable for cars doesn't mean they are no longer suitable for a far gentler career in static storage. Given the increasing number of BEV's we are going to have an increasing number of retired BEV batteries. You can do three things with them, bin them, reuse them or recycle them. In the absence of a concerted effort to recycle the materials back in to the supply chain reusing them reduces demand for scarce cells and cuts the cost of the car part of the battery's career as it retains some value even when no longer fit for it's intended purpose. Even with decent recycling processors extending the lifespan of the battery still leads to a more efficient life cycle and lower costs per cycle.


It's not exactly a controversial idea...

Hyundai announces deal to build energy storage projects with used EV battery packs

- https://electrek.co/2018/06/26/hyundai- ... -projects/

BMW has a couple of initiatives to give a second life to used battery packs from its electric vehicles. Earlier this year, the German automaker announced a wall mounted battery storage system, not unlike the Tesla Powerwall, using BMW i3 22 kWh or 33kWh battery packs.

- https://electrek.co/2016/09/22/bmw-bosc ... tric-cars/

Renault is latest automaker to unveil a Tesla Powerwall competitor with used batteries

- https://electrek.co/2017/06/05/renault- ... ompetitor/

What happens to used lithium-ion battery packs from electric cars?

...One popular solution is to re-use them as power storage for domestic and commercial buildings. Nissan recently launched the largest power storage facility in Europe to use both new and used car batteries; the Johan Cruyff ArenA in Amsterdam uses 63 used EV battery packs and 85 new battery packs, which feed off of 4,200 solar panels on the stadium roof.

...Nissan also offers an off-the-shelf home or commercial energy storage unit called xStorage – a rival to the Tesla Powerwall 2 system – although Nissan’s is different in that you can choose to have used or new EV batteries.

- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/advice ... tric-cars/

VW’s other big announcement is that Group Components will, from next year, start producing fast-charging stations for electric vehicles. The stations will be “based on the principle of a powerbank” and will able to charge up to four cars at once.

Interestingly, the ultimate plan is for the stations to reuse batteries that previously powered Volkswagen’s electric vehicles, but that lost too much capacity to be suited to that purpose.

- https://fortune.com/2019/01/25/volkswag ... e-battery/

Personally I expect Howard would be perfectly happy to accept properly recertified batteries with a reasonable warranty, but he has every right to pay over the odds for performance he is never going to use if he so chooses.

One can of course find reasons not to do this, just as after Dunkirk we could have said we can't compete with the Nazi war machine & so we must surrender & many did say that.

Really?

OThere is a huge commercial opportunity here. I fear it will be missed but for now there is a slight hope that some of the rhetoric by many politicians might lead to the opportunity being taken.

It won't be missed, it just won't be here, just like the rest of the car industry, but more so. Sovrinty innit? I mean look at your beloved Tesla. No existing supply chains in Europe to be influenced by. A completely blank map on which to put in the pin marking their European plant. Did it go in to the UK? Did it hell. Germany. That should probably tell you something.

[odysseus2000]

The statements about re-using old batteries for storage application is pure marketing speak.

In reality old batteries are too unreliable & too prone to warranty recalls for them to be practical commercial products.

Regards,

[vrdiver]

The statements about re-using old batteries for storage application is pure marketing speak.

In reality old batteries are too unreliable & too prone to warranty recalls for them to be practical commercial products.

Regards,

Not so sure about that...

A battery, whipped straight out of a BEV, maybe not, but one that has been QA'd, had defective cells replaced, had its charging software/hardware changed to support the new regime (fast charging not so critical, and different load patterns to consider) and now forms part of a bank of batteries (or is that a battery of batteries?) may well do the job.

Thinking a little further ahead, the car battery may well end up reduced to components and rebuilt. There is no reason to keep it in its car-configuration. The issue of cost will be weighed against the fit-for-purpose aspects (as you allude to above) and if there is a case to be made, I suspect it will be, rather than end up with battery landfill, which would be incredibly damaging to the green credentials of the BEV image.

Howard (our illustrious consumer) may not even be made aware that the battery has had a previous life; he will be aware of the guaranteed performance, presumably making his purchasing judgement based on what it can do (utility) and how it fits his home.

VRD

[odysseus2000]

The statements about re-using old batteries for storage application is pure marketing speak.

In reality old batteries are too unreliable & too prone to warranty recalls for them to be practical commercial products.

Regards,

Not so sure about that...

A battery, whipped straight out of a BEV, maybe not, but one that has been QA'd, had defective cells replaced, had its charging software/hardware changed to support the new regime (fast charging not so critical, and different load patterns to consider) and now forms part of a bank of batteries (or is that a battery of batteries?) may well do the job.

Thinking a little further ahead, the car battery may well end up reduced to components and rebuilt. There is no reason to keep it in its car-configuration. The issue of cost will be weighed against the fit-for-purpose aspects (as you allude to above) and if there is a case to be made, I suspect it will be, rather than end up with battery landfill, which would be incredibly damaging to the green credentials of the BEV image.

Howard (our illustrious consumer) may not even be made aware that the battery has had a previous life; he will be aware of the guaranteed performance, presumably making his purchasing judgement based on what it can do (utility) and how it fits his home.

VRD

All batteries will imho have to be practically 100% recyclable.

Current chemistries for propulsion & storage are diverging with various themes being touted as more suitable for one than the other.

If one starts to cost the breaking down of battery packs, testing to find recoverable cells, recycling the rest, one is adding a lot of overhead compared to full recycle of the entire battery pack.

Imho UK consumers will be sold premium products which will be marketed as insurance approved, while a small band of penny pinching nerds like me will recycle & use older cells and risk the dangers of insurance companies failing to honour insurance if such self made systems burn, one reason I plan to put mine outside & away from my house.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
It won't be missed, it just won't be here, just like the rest of the car industry, but more so. Sovrinty innit? I mean look at your beloved Tesla. No existing supply chains in Europe to be influenced by. A completely blank map on which to put in the pin marking their European plant. Did it go in to the UK? Did it hell. Germany. That should probably tell you something.

I fear that you may be right, but the entire UK political scene may change as a result of Brexit & who knows we might get folk elected who have some sense.

Regards,