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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#160085

Postby odysseus2000 » August 16th, 2018, 11:26 am

PeterGray wrote:I am not sure what to believe about the various utterances.

Agreed, and I'm sure you would include Musk's tweets in there too - or else why not?


So far most of what Musk has tweeted has proved to be right.

His tweet about taking Tesla private was later confirmed by the board.

His tweet about funding has been supported by the Saudi fund.

His tweet about working with Goldman was said to be wrong, but a few days later Goldman say they are working with him.

Ditto Silver Lake.

My analysis is that there are vested interests whose tactic is to take down the Tesla share price at every opportunity by making false claims such
as those with GS and Silver Lake and then likely cover shorts and go long again.

Given my belief, my trading tactics in Tesla have been to maintain a core holding in Tesla, but to sell some shares into spikes and re-buy similar amounts
into downs. I would not consider shorts here given the potential of a $420 or more take out. At some point these tactics will stop working, but so far it
has been profitable to me.

Of course my core could be burned if it transpires that the deal to take Tesla private will not happen, but in that case I would just hold as I
still believe the case for Tesla is very strong.

Regards,

onthemove
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Re: Musk endeavours

#160094

Postby onthemove » August 16th, 2018, 11:56 am

odysseus2000 wrote:His tweet about funding has been supported by the Saudi fund.



Just to recap from what I posted earlier...


"On Monday, lawyers told Reuters Musk’s statement indicated he had good reason to believe he had funding but seemed to have overstated its status by saying it was secured" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1L01LR


So not everyone, including myself, and it seems a number of 'laywers', are convinced (based on Musk's subsequent clarification) that the tweet was an accurate statement of the situation at the time it was tweeted

odysseus2000 wrote:His tweet about taking Tesla private was later confirmed by the board.



I'm not sure what you mean 'confirmed by the board'?

"Tesla has not received a formal proposal from its founder Elon Musk to take the company private, its board of directors has said.
The electric carmaker said it had created a special committee of three directors to evaluate any such proposal." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45186011



In other words, the board has been convened, but as it stands it has nothing to consider.

If Musk has secured funding, then one would reasonably expect that the ball is in Musk's court.

What's he waiting for?

Except of course we now know from his subsequent blog post, that the funding isn't 'secured' - it's still conditional upon further due diligence and process from the Saudi side before they are prepared to make a final commitment.

Until the Suadi's complete their process and make their final decision, the ball isn't in Musk's court - contrary to what many will have believed from Musk's tweet saying that the funding was 'secured'.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160108

Postby odysseus2000 » August 16th, 2018, 12:51 pm

onthemove
In other words, the board has been convened, but as it stands it has nothing to consider.

If Musk has secured funding, then one would reasonably expect that the ball is in Musk's court.

What's he waiting for?

Except of course we now know from his subsequent blog post, that the funding isn't 'secured' - it's still conditional upon further due diligence and process from the Saudi side before they are prepared to make a final commitment.

Until the Suadi's complete their process and make their final decision, the ball isn't in Musk's court - contrary to what many will have believed from Musk's tweet saying that the funding was 'secured'.


Yes, but this is all grey areas.

Deals at this level are made between people by word of mouth, with all the back office stuff to follow. Sure back office stuff can end the deal but the strong assumption is that following such verbal agreements, that everything will go through.

Market always look forwards and by the time the formal offer comes every price will have adjusted to the offer save for the odd nickel and dime arbitrage type of thing. Some folk, like Buffett used to, have made good money out of arbitrage but the big money moving stuff happens long before the arbitrage to the final offer.

One can argue that until things are formal there is nothing certain, but that is not how big deals are done, nor how public markets operate.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160109

Postby PeterGray » August 16th, 2018, 12:53 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:I am not sure what to believe about the various utterances.

Agreed, and I'm sure you would include Musk's tweets in there too - or else why not?


So far most of what Musk has tweeted has proved to be right.

......



So as I understand it you question any comments about the going private tweets issue, except for those made by Musk? Who seems to be treated with a lack of critical attention that you would apply to anyone else who comments.

Peter

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160118

Postby BobbyD » August 16th, 2018, 1:28 pm

PeterGray wrote:So as I understand it you question any comments about the going private tweets issue, except for those made by Musk? Who seems to be treated with a lack of critical attention that you would apply to anyone else who comments.


...I think you are fundamentally wrong in ascribing this behaviour only to the discussion about the tweets about going private. Oddy is far more consistent than that.

Tesla subpoenaed by SEC over Elon Musk tweet


- https://www.ft.com/content/4bab0e5c-a0f ... b7a9ce36e4

- https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Regul ... e&ie=UTF-8

Tesla Is Said to Be Subpoenaed by S.E.C. Over Elon Musk Tweet

Federal securities regulators have served Tesla with a subpoena, according to a person familiar with the investigation, increasing pressure on the electric car company as it deals with the fallout from several recent actions by its chief executive, Elon Musk.

..

It has become clear since then that neither Mr. Musk nor Tesla had actually lined up the necessary financing aside from having preliminary conversations with some investors.

The Twitter post by Mr. Musk, who has considered taking Tesla private in the past, was something of a flip remark, said several people familiar with the matter but not authorized to speak publicly about the episode.


- https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/busi ... ldman.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160126

Postby odysseus2000 » August 16th, 2018, 2:03 pm

PeterGray wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:I am not sure what to believe about the various utterances.

Agreed, and I'm sure you would include Musk's tweets in there too - or else why not?


So far most of what Musk has tweeted has proved to be right.

......



So as I understand it you question any comments about the going private tweets issue, except for those made by Musk? Who seems to be treated with a lack of critical attention that you would apply to anyone else who comments.

Peter


I am looking at things in terms of what is actionable for an investor/trader.

My experience, other may differ, is that what Musk has said has turned out to be correct and assuming this to be the case and placing trades based on Musk likely being eventually shown to be right has been profitable for me.

By contrast placing trades on what other people have said, such as shorting Tesla when "persons familiar with the matter" noted that GS and Silver Lake were not involved has not been good.

Others may disagree and that is fine. There is no certainty that Musk will get his private buy out at $420, but I want to be positioned such that if it happens (as I believe it will) I will get some private shares and/or sell into the offer.

By contrast a lot of folk seem certain this is all a scam and have big short positions.

Every investor/trader has to weigh things up for themselves and likely for most the best tactic is to stay clear of Tesla.

Regards,

PeterGray
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Re: Musk endeavours

#160187

Postby PeterGray » August 16th, 2018, 5:44 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I am looking at things in terms of what is actionable for an investor/trader.



I made clear in an earlier post on the subject that I thought Musk might get away with it, but I made the case that whatever the outcome Musks reputation is significantly damaged, again. If he's successful in taking it private with a big funder like the SA sovereign fund who may be able to put up with him he may be OK, but otherwise he's likely to be in real trouble, regardless of what the SEC.

You've never responded to those points, just kept on about essentially trusting Musk's tweet, but no one else!

Time for me to take a break from this discussion, life isn't long enough!

Peter

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160295

Postby forrado » August 17th, 2018, 12:53 pm

It seems the old curmudgeon Charlie Munger was spot on when asked his opinion of Elon Musk. ‘Possibly one of the smartest men alive on the planet, but he’s too smart and that makes him dangerous.’ That’s the problem for Musk, there’s no strong Charlie Munger type-character alongside him in way the Buffett-Munger relationship works. To use a football club analogy in terms of successful management, what the charismatic Brian Clough and the unassuming Peter Taylor did at the unfashionable Derby County and Nottingham Forrest is legendary in the history of the round-ball game. But Brian Clough, without Peter Taylor, was a walking disaster – and, Musk could well be heading in that direction.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160301

Postby Meatyfool » August 17th, 2018, 1:17 pm

forrado wrote:It seems the old curmudgeon Charlie Munger was spot on when asked his opinion of Elon Musk. ‘Possibly one of the smartest men alive on the planet, but he’s too smart and that makes him dangerous.’ That’s the problem for Musk, there’s no strong Charlie Munger type-character alongside him in way the Buffett-Munger relationship works. To use a football club analogy in terms of successful management, what the charismatic Brian Clough and the unassuming Peter Taylor did at the unfashionable Derby County and Nottingham Forrest is legendary in the history of the round-ball game. But Brian Clough, without Peter Taylor, was a walking disaster – and, Musk could well be heading in that direction.


Elon Musk as Brian Clough?

"Gather round children, gather round. I tell ya, this rocket is going to fly. Why, because I told it to".

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160318

Postby odysseus2000 » August 17th, 2018, 2:15 pm

forrado wrote:It seems the old curmudgeon Charlie Munger was spot on when asked his opinion of Elon Musk. ‘Possibly one of the smartest men alive on the planet, but he’s too smart and that makes him dangerous.’ That’s the problem for Musk, there’s no strong Charlie Munger type-character alongside him in way the Buffett-Munger relationship works. To use a football club analogy in terms of successful management, what the charismatic Brian Clough and the unassuming Peter Taylor did at the unfashionable Derby County and Nottingham Forrest is legendary in the history of the round-ball game. But Brian Clough, without Peter Taylor, was a walking disaster – and, Musk could well be heading in that direction.


It is imho not so much that Musk is a dangerous, but that there are a lot of vested interests with money who want him discredited and are paying folk to seek out any weakness and exploit them to Musk's disadvantage.

Likely Musk understands this and his on his guard, but very few people are that strong and consistent that they can ignore false statements and who can avoid reacting when in a more thoughtful moment they will realise they have been set up.

It is a standard problem for politicians who employ various defence tactics as one sees by studying how e.g. Trump, May, Corbyn, Merkel etc react to this kind of deliberate provocation. There are folk who make a career out of advising Politicians, Celebrities, Royals etc how to react, but its a dangerous and difficult game for if it is overdone the qualities that make the person special can be injured.

Meanwhile you have a vast number of people who will do very little in their lives although nevertheless being in general good citizens with strong family connections who do not like to believe that anyone is special and delight in someone who has been raised up being pulled down and destroyed.

Looking at people in general one is not always left with a feeling of hope and admiration for the common person and yet so far the human race has continued to advance, an interesting paradox.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160324

Postby Itsallaguess » August 17th, 2018, 2:52 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
It is imho not so much that Musk is a dangerous, but that there are a lot of vested interests with money who want him discredited and are paying folk to seek out any weakness and exploit them to Musk's disadvantage.

Likely Musk understands this and his on his guard, but very few people are that strong and consistent that they can ignore false statements and who can avoid reacting when in a more thoughtful moment they will realise they have been set up.


That's putting the cart before the horse.

Musk needs to step away from the limelight, like all the other CEO's manage to do...

His is not the only industry where others want to discredit people, but Musk seems to be good at finding ways to make it easy for others to discredit him.

How many CEO's need to try to spell out to the world that they 'weren't on dope' when they last tweeted some ground-breaking news about their company?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/16/busi ... tesla.html

I'm not sure he's going to last long in his current position, one way or another, if he doesn't quickly step back from all the showbiz....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160330

Postby odysseus2000 » August 17th, 2018, 3:16 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:


I'm not sure he's going to last long in his current position, one way or another, if he doesn't quickly step back from all the showbiz....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Isn't the privatisation deal all about stepping back from the limelight and the hostile fire?

One issue is that Musk's behaviour might spook the Saudi fund and have them pull back.

Continued disbelief in the markets that Tsla will be bought out, but any utterance by the board, Saudi etc can flip sentiment either way, to get another big short squeeze or a big down move if the utterance was negative.

Meanwhile we have the mid August market with very little action either way. Maybe better to be away from the markets doing something different so as to be ready for when the big players come back from the beach.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160351

Postby onthemove » August 17th, 2018, 4:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that Musk's behaviour might spook the Saudi fund and have them pull back.


Doesn't matter though... the funding for the deal is already 'secured', isn't it?

Musk himself said so in a tweet.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160358

Postby odysseus2000 » August 17th, 2018, 6:00 pm

onthemove wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that Musk's behaviour might spook the Saudi fund and have them pull back.


Doesn't matter though... the funding for the deal is already 'secured', isn't it?

Musk himself said so in a tweet.


Market doesn't think so, or is it a buying opportunity?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160362

Postby johnhemming » August 17th, 2018, 6:37 pm

I can understand Musk's problem if the shorting is causing people to cancel orders for the cars. Where it goes from here, however, is another issue. If SA has bought 5% of the company that should be recognised as being significant.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160386

Postby odysseus2000 » August 17th, 2018, 9:00 pm

johnhemming wrote:I can understand Musk's problem if the shorting is causing people to cancel orders for the cars. Where it goes from here, however, is another issue. If SA has bought 5% of the company that should be recognised as being significant.


Another issue is that all Tesla employees (as I understand it) have shares and/or options such that wild swings in share price may be causing some of
his best folk to wonder if they would be better off elsewhere.

Median salaries in the Bay area top $240,000 with some of that being stock options:

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/new ... yptr=yahoo

But another issue is likely ego and Musk not liking that other folk don't see things like he does.

Dunno, but I have taken the opportunity of today's falls in Tesla to add to my holding.

If Musk does follow through on his $420 offer price, todays $304-ish will look good, but of course it might be cheaper still come next week.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160421

Postby odysseus2000 » August 18th, 2018, 9:59 am

This is a good bit of "up-market" trashing of Musk and Tesla, well written, clear and detailed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... 5db21dd9a5

Many of the post article comments are even better.

Perhaps as the Washington post notes via a brokers note to give more power, this is the point when Musk's star begins to wane, but perhaps not.

In a few minutes I will have forgotten all about this and my motivation to read similar articles is not high.

This and most other journalism is the words of the watchers, the folk who only comment and never do anything.

Musk like Ford and Edison will have his mistakes and he could fail completely, but if so it will be because he gets the business stuff wrong. He could be taken out by a bad supplier (as was Lord Sugar with bad disk drives in his computers), or the competitors could make better stuff. But all this media stuff both the heavy stuff like the Washington Post and the goofy Twitter folk are imho transitory noise.

The famous investor Peter Lynch, noted that if you can't turn yourself from a seller to a buyer when your liked stocks are down 30% you won't make money in stocks. Buffett has said the same many times too.

The issue is always about whether the business is robust enough to come out of these storms. For now Tesla looks imho based on the production numbers and the demand for its products to be more secure than it has ever previously been and this has more sway with me than all the media and social media stuff.

That is of course me and I can take the loss if it all goes belly up, although I won't like it. For most folk they are likely best avoiding Tesla and equities in total and sticking to other less difficult ways to make money.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160495

Postby odysseus2000 » August 18th, 2018, 7:54 pm

ap8889 wrote:The Azelia Banks revelations are pretty damning, and correlate with the observed behaviour of Musk of late. He obviously doesn't have the funding else there would be immediate confirmation via a detailed disclosure to the market, he likely tweeted without using his noggin, possibly due to alleged drug use according to Banks, and has a prima facie case to answer that he misled the markets.

I admire the guys achievements but he has a big, big problem now.


This adds a bit of glamour to the story and was a curved ball as I was thinking Azelia was some some large bank rather than an artist.

Whether her story is correct or not she has got a lot of publicity over it and the allegations that Musk was high was tweeting is bound to raise the moral majority.

Do I think it matters?

No, suspect it will all be forgotten in a few days, but of course I could be wrong.

Shorts have pushed the share price to almost fill the gap after earnings, staying short here might be a bit greedy after such a splendidly profitable Friday, but I have been wrong before.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160757

Postby BobbyD » August 20th, 2018, 2:04 pm

Tesla stock plunges more than 7 percent, falling below $290 per share.
The latest drop comes after J.P. Morgan slashed its year-end price target to $190 a share from $308.
The analyst said funding for Musk's proposal to take the company private "appears to not have been secured."


- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/tesla-f ... slide.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#160771

Postby PeterGray » August 20th, 2018, 2:54 pm

Fake news, Bobby, there was a tweet about it - it must be true!


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