Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

This is a technical discussion comparing the electrical systems of the MachE, the ID4 and the Tesla Model 3.

(Specially for Howard about the advantages of over the air updates (OTA))

The Tesla model 3 has no fuses, but has circuit breakers that can be switched from disabled to enabled via OTA commands and in some cases can correct two faults. The advantage is that there is no fuse to replace and if the problem that caused the trip to occur can be fixed via OTA, then there is no need to visit a service station as would be essential for either the Id4 or the Mach E unless the owner has the knowledge and patience to look at a lot of fuses
Watch discussion 15:27 to 20:10 in the video:

https://youtu.be/ZRkm6-bBk4U

Also interesting that Tesla wanted to go for a 48 Volt system, but the suppliers only offer 12 volt. Note a 48 volt system would allow the same power as a 12 volt system but at 1/4 the current, allowing the use of thinner wires with Munro saying copper is $2 per lb. His engineers have to take out 1 g of weight per day of their design and Munro said this has cut out kg of weight.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

An 11 minute video showing how consumer reports did not report facts correctly, saying the Ford no driver detection system was better than Tesla, but independent tests show how easy it is to defeat the Ford driver detection system:

https://youtu.be/vO9Gsyerv8s

Regards,

[BobbyD]

...yup, German factory culture. Teslas working practices are a complete anathema to the German way ...and assuming they are allowed to keep their factory upright just wait until Musk discovers that this IG Metal he has been hearing so much about are not a cool German Death Metal band.

Timing is everything...

Top union sets sights on works council at Tesla’s German gigafactory

Germany’s largest and most powerful union IG Metall has set its sights firmly on setting up a works council at Tesla’s gigafactory near Berlin, which is scheduled to open later this year, its head Joerg Hofmann said.

The U.S. electric carmaker is hiring for the site in Gruenheide, whose opening was pushed back in April due to red tape as well as a decision to include a battery cell manufacturing plant.

Organised labour will be an issue for the group in Germany, not only home to some of the world's biggest and most famous carmakers but also to powerful unions that command significant say over strategic matters.

-https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/top-union-sets-sights-works-council-teslas-german-gigafactory-2021-05-07/

[odysseus2000]

...yup, German factory culture. Teslas working practices are a complete anathema to the German way ...and assuming they are allowed to keep their factory upright just wait until Musk discovers that this IG Metal he has been hearing so much about are not a cool German Death Metal band.

Timing is everything...

Top union sets sights on works council at Tesla’s German gigafactory

Germany’s largest and most powerful union IG Metall has set its sights firmly on setting up a works council at Tesla’s gigafactory near Berlin, which is scheduled to open later this year, its head Joerg Hofmann said.

The U.S. electric carmaker is hiring for the site in Gruenheide, whose opening was pushed back in April due to red tape as well as a decision to include a battery cell manufacturing plant.

Organised labour will be an issue for the group in Germany, not only home to some of the world's biggest and most famous carmakers but also to powerful unions that command significant say over strategic matters.

-https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/top-union-sets-sights-works-council-teslas-german-gigafactory-2021-05-07/

Yes, but IG Metall will have their hands full dealing with redundancies across all legacy auto, last thing they will want to do is hurt a company that is providing new jobs for some of the many who will be fired.

Regards,

[scrumpyjack]

But I think German unions have a history of wanting their companies to thrive unlike British ones. I recall back in the seventies British Leyland had huge problems with Unions and in particular a guy nicknamed 'Red Robbo'. Fiat then had a very successful TV advertising campaign showing their production line with the cars being built by robots. The punch line was 'Built by Robots, not Robbos'.

[BobbyD]

But I think German unions have a history of wanting their companies to thrive unlike British ones. I recall back in the seventies British Leyland had huge problems with Unions and in particular a guy nicknamed 'Red Robbo'. Fiat then had a very successful TV advertising campaign showing their production line with the cars being built by robots. The punch line was 'Built by Robots, not Robbos'.

German Unions know enough to let their industry survive, which is a step up on UK unions, granted. They have far better legal protections and are far more pervasive as a result and the German workplace is a far more controlled environment as a result. Tesla's major problem is that Musk approaches this in a Muskian way, and tries to run it like his American factories then Tesla are going to be spending a lot of time in court... There are advantages to doing business in Germany, and disadvantages and you can't simply steamroller over the bits you don't like something some people might find hard to accept.

Assuming they ever get final planning approval for the factory that is...

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Assuming they ever get final planning approval for the factory that is...

It would take something for a 1st world manufacturing economy to spurn Tesla.

Sure they could do it, but the likely hood is extremely small.

Politicians love to be seen as trend setter, builders of a better future etc.

To wreck Tesla having brought them in would likely destroy which ever politician took that decision.

There may be various dramas but it seems super unlikely that the whole business will be told to clear off.

My expectation is that they will get expedited permission before too long, if necessary going all the way to the top of the German political system with sweeteners to buy off anyone who might have a good legal objection.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

But I think German unions have a history of wanting their companies to thrive unlike British ones. I recall back in the seventies British Leyland had huge problems with Unions and in particular a guy nicknamed 'Red Robbo'. Fiat then had a very successful TV advertising campaign showing their production line with the cars being built by robots. The punch line was 'Built by Robots, not Robbos'.

I recall another spoof ad, saying "Built by robots, driven by Italians", with cars crashing all over the place and driven at high speed.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

But I think German unions have a history of wanting their companies to thrive unlike British ones. I recall back in the seventies British Leyland had huge problems with Unions and in particular a guy nicknamed 'Red Robbo'. Fiat then had a very successful TV advertising campaign showing their production line with the cars being built by robots. The punch line was 'Built by Robots, not Robbos'.

I recall another spoof ad, saying "Built by robots, driven by Italians", with cars crashing all over the place and driven at high speed.

TJH

I seem to recall it was the satirical show: "Not the Nine O'Clock news" and went with a video of a modern production line, to the sound of Mozart Figaro! and a video of sparks and such with the comments:

Designed by Computer!
Built by robots!

then, after showing a crash

Driven by Italians!

Ha, Ha, but not quite right as this video shows:

https://youtu.be/BNPTlT8HXjk

Regards,

[BobbyD]

When Elon Musk Moves In Next Door

Elon Musk's SpaceX has been building out its operations in Boca Chica, Texas and pressuring residents to sell their homes. WSJ's Nancy Keates explains why some residents are pushing back, and a homeowner explains the challenges of living next to a launchpad.

- https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journa ... 5640659B03

[Howard]

This is a technical discussion comparing the electrical systems of the MachE, the ID4 and the Tesla Model 3.

(Specially for Howard about the advantages of over the air updates (OTA))

The Tesla model 3 has no fuses, but has circuit breakers that can be switched from disabled to enabled via OTA commands and in some cases can correct two faults. The advantage is that there is no fuse to replace and if the problem that caused the trip to occur can be fixed via OTA, then there is no need to visit a service station as would be essential for either the Id4 or the Mach E unless the owner has the knowledge and patience to look at a lot of fuses
Watch discussion 15:27 to 20:10 in the video:

https://youtu.be/ZRkm6-bBk4U

Also interesting that Tesla wanted to go for a 48 Volt system, but the suppliers only offer 12 volt. Note a 48 volt system would allow the same power as a 12 volt system but at 1/4 the current, allowing the use of thinner wires with Munro saying copper is $2 per lb. His engineers have to take out 1 g of weight per day of their design and Munro said this has cut out kg of weight.

Regards,

Ody

For world-class quality OTA updates look no further than BMW. I'm sure you'll agree they are the leaders in getting these right. Could Tesla learn from them?

"Since 2014, customers have been able to book and pay for services online directly from the vehicle via the BMW Connected Drive Store. Moreover, since 2018, BMW drivers have been able to keep vehicle connectivity up to date at all times with the help of remote software upgrades, much like they have already become used to doing with their smartphones. By the end of 2021, the BMW Group will already have the world's largest fleet on the road, with around 2.5 million vehicles that can be updated with new and enhanced functions over the air."

And their latest quarterly report shows how to do it with panache.

"BMW Group highly profitable and sustainable" +++ Deliveries of electrified vehicles more than doubled +++ Free cash flow of € 2.5 billion in first quarter +++ Sustainable mobility needs more than just an e-drive +++ Earnings boosted by higher deliveries and better pricing"

"Strong demand for electrified vehicles (plug-in hybrids and fully electric vehicles) contributed substantially to the outstanding sales performance, with deliveries more than doubling compared to the same quarter one year earlier."

A mere 636,606 cars delivered in Q1. Share price only up 63% in the last year.

This probably won't come as a surprise to you. It's uncanny how accurately you have been forecasting BMW's success over the last 5 years plus!

regards

Howard

https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/a ... rengthened

[BobbyD]

ELON MUSK PLUGGED DOGECOIN ON SNL - AND THE PRICE IMMEDIATELY PLUMMETED

- https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 44400.html

[odysseus2000]

For world-class quality OTA updates look no further than BMW. I'm sure you'll agree they are the leaders in getting these right. Could Tesla learn from them?

"Since 2014, customers have been able to book and pay for services online directly from the vehicle via the BMW Connected Drive Store. Moreover, since 2018, BMW drivers have been able to keep vehicle connectivity up to date at all times with the help of remote software upgrades, much like they have already become used to doing with their smartphones. By the end of 2021, the BMW Group will already have the world's largest fleet on the road, with around 2.5 million vehicles that can be updated with new and enhanced functions over the air."

And their latest quarterly report shows how to do it with panache.

"BMW Group highly profitable and sustainable" +++ Deliveries of electrified vehicles more than doubled +++ Free cash flow of € 2.5 billion in first quarter +++ Sustainable mobility needs more than just an e-drive +++ Earnings boosted by higher deliveries and better pricing"

"Strong demand for electrified vehicles (plug-in hybrids and fully electric vehicles) contributed substantially to the outstanding sales performance, with deliveries more than doubling compared to the same quarter one year earlier."

A mere 636,606 cars delivered in Q1. Share price only up 63% in the last year.

This probably won't come as a surprise to you. It's uncanny how accurately you have been forecasting BMW's success over the last 5 years plus!

regards

Howard

Ha Ha. So on the one hand Tesla can reset circuit breakers and fix faults all by ota, on the other BMW can book a service on line, something that all Tesla can also do.

BMW have lost their market leader spot in the model 3 specification level and are still predominantly an ICE and plug in hybrid maker. Myopic investors look at recent results and assume they will continue, just as they did with Blackberry and all the cell phone makers who looked invincible before the iPhone.

BMW are in a terrible mess, when they go down is hard to know, but to argue otherwise is to argue that their balance sheet and model line up are some fantasy and that the reality is very much better. Arguing that BMW is doing great is to completely ignore the great secular changes taking place in the auto industry and to base ones outlook not on this, but on the past.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Myopic investors look at recent results and assume they will continue ...

Myopic investors in growth stocks look at recent results and extrapolate that growth and assume they will continue ...

[ReformedCharacter]

SpaceX launched another 60 Starlink satellites today, bringing the total number launched to 1625. The first stage booster, which landed successfully on a drone ship, was on it's 10th launch, meeting SpaceX's target of 10x launches per first stage booster. The satellite fairing (apparently quite an expensive item) also made it's second visit to space. Given the costs savings of re-use this must place SpaceX in a league of its own. I was surprised that the booster which recently launched the second SpaceX crewed delivery to the ISS was also re-used (previously used for the first manned launch), so NASA must be confident in their safety and reliability.

Predictably both Blue Origin et al. and Dynetics are challenging NASA's decision to make SpaceX the builder of the next generation lunar lander. It appears that the Blue Origin bid was about twice the price of SpaceX's. SpaceX's lunar lander bid looked like a longshot to me given the fact that it's much larger in both size and ambition. But on the other hand they're already learning how to land prototypes on earth at an astonishing rate.

RC

[odysseus2000]

Myopic investors look at recent results and assume they will continue ...

Myopic investors in growth stocks look at recent results and extrapolate that growth and assume they will continue ...

If you are investing in growth stocks what you need is a forward product line and a moat between what the growth stock of interest plans and any potential competitor.

You also want to be sure that the growth stock has access to plenty of capital and little debt and preferably that any competitor has a weak balance sheet and no easy way to raise capital. If the competition are simultaneously trying to compete and at the same time retire existing and currently profitable obsolete tech then one has close to a perfect storm.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Myopic investors look at recent results and assume they will continue ...

Myopic investors in growth stocks look at recent results and extrapolate that growth and assume they will continue ...

If you are investing in growth stocks what you need is a forward product line and a moat between what the growth stock of interest plans and any potential competitor.

You also want to be sure that the growth stock has access to plenty of capital and little debt and preferably that any competitor has a weak balance sheet and no easy way to raise capital. If the competition are simultaneously trying to compete and at the same time retire existing and currently profitable obsolete tech then one has close to a perfect storm.

Regards,

And all of that can be a disaster too as an investor if the market is pricing growth at 20% and the reality is closer to 10%!

And all of that can be a triumph to an investor in the legacy if the market is pricing demise in 10 years and negative growth rates in the teens, but it turns out growth is only slightly negative and legacy continues for longer, and furthermore they manage to transform and capture some of that "secular change" themselves.

You come across as an investor that never considers the price of the asset you are buying or selling as part of the investment/divestment thesis, which is as close to a perfect storm as an investor might wish to weather. But why would that matter on an investment forum when its much better to have arguments about marginal issues surrounding product with a huge dollop of confirmation bias thrown into the mix?

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
And all of that can be a disaster too as an investor if the market is pricing growth at 20% and the reality is closer to 10%!

And all of that can be a triumph to an investor in the legacy if the market is pricing demise in 10 years and negative growth rates in the teens, but it turns out growth is only slightly negative and legacy continues for longer, and furthermore they manage to transform and capture some of that "secular change" themselves.

You come across as an investor that never considers the price of the asset you are buying or selling as part of the investment/divestment thesis, which is as close to a perfect storm as an investor might wish to weather. But why would that matter on an investment forum when its much better to have arguments about marginal issues surrounding product with a huge dollop of confirmation bias thrown into the mix?

Yes, but that is why this is mostly art with a little science.

One can certainly critique my approach but one can also critique the value approach that has put many investors into value traps that never recover.

Nothing is certain: One invests/trades in the art of working with uncertainty.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
And all of that can be a disaster too as an investor if the market is pricing growth at 20% and the reality is closer to 10%!

And all of that can be a triumph to an investor in the legacy if the market is pricing demise in 10 years and negative growth rates in the teens, but it turns out growth is only slightly negative and legacy continues for longer, and furthermore they manage to transform and capture some of that "secular change" themselves.

You come across as an investor that never considers the price of the asset you are buying or selling as part of the investment/divestment thesis, which is as close to a perfect storm as an investor might wish to weather. But why would that matter on an investment forum when its much better to have arguments about marginal issues surrounding product with a huge dollop of confirmation bias thrown into the mix?

Yes, but that is why this is mostly art with a little science.

One can certainly critique my approach but one can also critique the value approach that has put many investors into value traps that never recover.

Nothing is certain: One invests/trades in the art of working with uncertainty.

Regards,

I critique many approaches, and many investors - but admittedly more those that portray biases, particularly confirmation bias. Value investors that don't measure value, or price, would be worthy of criticism.

I disagree "this" (presuming you mean investing) is mostly art with a little science.

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
I disagree "this" (presuming you mean investing) is mostly art with a little science.

If investing was mostly science then anyone who extensively studied the subject ought to be able to become a very successful investor.

In practice I do not see this which makes me think investing is more art than science.

Indeed I have met many who have extensively studied investing and who have not been able to translate that study into wealth, even though in many cases they have been very successful in business where there is clear cause and effect relationship with rules and where emotions and orthogonal events have minimal impact.

Regards,