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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#280851

Postby BobbyD » January 29th, 2020, 12:49 pm

PeterGray wrote:How long will the congestion charge exemption for low emission vehicles last if EV's start being taken up big time?


Presumably it will be discounted as long as their are comparatively higher emissions vehicles to disincentivise, although I'd imagine it will move down to zero emission only. Since the primary aim of all these tax breaks, subsidies, congestion charge exemptions and emission charging is to encourage the purchase and use of lower emission vehicles moving the bar down as the trend line drops would be eminently sensible. That said anybody expecting logic or consistency in the policy of governments may be disappointed. It is possible that having attained a situation where only zero emission cars are capable of driving in the city the rate would be permanently set at £0 and the charge allowed to tail off in to extinction, but then one is reminded in a timely fashion that income tax was introduced as a temporary measure to fund war with the French.

odysseus2000 wrote:
As things now are, and they could change with robotic driving & political mandates, I feel that the way to look at what will do well as a car is to consider what historically has done well, starting with the model T and progressing through the list of popular models since.


So Beetle, Golf ...id.3!

Welcome to the club.

There are of course a few minor problems with using century old demographics as a guide to tomorrow's purchase patterns, and attributing range as a property of successful cars in a world where all cars successful or unsuccessful had exactly the same effective range might be seen as somewhat contrived, even if the entire exercise doesn't seem completely at odds with your mantra that BEV's represent not an evolutionary step in personal transport but a revolutionary disruption. Surely the entire point of a revolutionary disruption should be that it can't be modelled on past data?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280856

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2020, 1:06 pm

BobbyD

There are of course a few minor problems with using century old demographics as a guide to tomorrow's purchase patterns, and attributing range as a property of successful cars in a world where all cars successful or unsuccessful had exactly the same effective range might be seen as somewhat contrived, even if the entire exercise doesn't seem completely at odds with your mantra that BEV's represent not an evolutionary step in personal transport but a revolutionary disruption. Surely the entire point of a revolutionary disruption should be that it can't be modelled on past data?


No, all revolutionary disruptions are based on, as far as we know, unchanging human nature.

People want new things that are better, cheaper, cleaner, easier, useful, more fashionable... than what was previously available.

The VW beetle was at its time very much in the model T stable, the current VW offerings imho are not model T equivalent due to skimping on battery range & trying to create something that look more like the Mini than the Cortina in a world were there are many Mini types, but few Cortina types.

Regards,

UncleIan
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Re: Musk endeavours

#280869

Postby UncleIan » January 29th, 2020, 1:44 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:One can argue that the mini was a popular car even though it was small and it sold well, but it sold nothing like as well as the Cortina which was an updated version of the model T characteristics.


Around 5 million minis sold in the UK (not including BMW modern era minis) during the life of the model.

Around 3 million Cortinas sold in the UK during the life of the model.

Thank you Wikipedia.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280870

Postby vrdiver » January 29th, 2020, 1:44 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:People want new things that are better, cheaper, cleaner, easier, useful, more fashionable... than what was previously available.

The VW beetle was at its time very much in the model T stable, the current VW offerings imho are not model T equivalent due to skimping on battery range & trying to create something that look more like the Mini than the Cortina in a world were there are many Mini types, but few Cortina types.

Regards,


When implementing software, I learnt that most people want what they know, only better.

I just had a quick look at a VW ID3 review (https://www.parkers.co.uk/volkswagen/id3/review/) and notice they will be offering a 77kWh battery version with a 342 mile range. Along with the two smaller capacity battery options I suspect that puts the ID3 in the frame for quite a few buyers who want to deal with a company they are already familiar with, purchasing a product they feel they already know, but which is a bit better than what they currently have.

Tesla, on the other hand, still feels like a maverick outsider where rumours of quality issues, repair horror stories etc. are frightening the children. If (imho) Tesla are to break into commodity-like sales volumes, then they will have to address that image issue. VW on the other hand appear to have survived Dieselgate and can even use BEV to demonstrate their newfound enthusiasm for proper low emission products.

Incidentally, my first car was a Beetle (1302S), there's a golf sitting on the drive and I'm waiting to see what an ID3 really looks like when they come out. I guess I'm pretty much target market for VW ;)

VRD

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280877

Postby BobbyD » January 29th, 2020, 2:05 pm

UncleIan wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One can argue that the mini was a popular car even though it was small and it sold well, but it sold nothing like as well as the Cortina which was an updated version of the model T characteristics.


Around 5 million minis sold in the UK (not including BMW modern era minis) during the life of the model.

Around 3 million Cortinas sold in the UK during the life of the model.

Thank you Wikipedia.


The car beginning with C it would have been more logical to cite would have been the Corolla, but in reality that is a series of different cars with the same name. A Beetle is pretty much a Beetle though.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280888

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2020, 2:24 pm

UncleIan wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One can argue that the mini was a popular car even though it was small and it sold well, but it sold nothing like as well as the Cortina which was an updated version of the model T characteristics.


Around 5 million minis sold in the UK (not including BMW modern era minis) during the life of the model.

Around 3 million Cortinas sold in the UK during the life of the model.

Thank you Wikipedia.


Thank you for the interesting information. I was basing my numbers on the most popular cars in the UK:

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-cars ... f-all-time

This shows 2.6 million Cortina and 1.6 million mini.

Probably the difference is concerned with the fact that the mini was re-launched in various significantly modified body version, not including the recent ones, which auto express aren't counting whereas the Cortina was made for 20 years in many badge lines and specs but with the same bodies and then replaced with the Sierra.

One can do all kinds of things with statistics. If one wanted to do and apples to apples comparison one would have to specify what is a Mini compact type car and what is a Cortina compact type car and then do the calculation which would be full of interpretation. E.g. which class would the Escort or Cavalier fit into?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280894

Postby UncleIan » January 29th, 2020, 2:49 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Probably the difference is concerned with the fact that the mini was re-launched in various significantly modified body version, not including the recent ones, which auto express aren't counting whereas the Cortina was made for 20 years in many badge lines and specs but with the same bodies and then replaced with the Sierra.

One can do all kinds of things with statistics. If one wanted to do and apples to apples comparison one would have to specify what is a Mini compact type car and what is a Cortina compact type car and then do the calculation which would be full of interpretation. E.g. which class would the Escort or Cavalier fit into?


In the end, the specifics are irrelevant, they're all mass market cars. They all have "model T characteristics". Like Golf, Polo, Fiesta, Focus, Astra, Corsa, Qashqai. The average Joe that buy these by the bucketload, they probably won't even look at Tesla, they won't want a saloon, or have it in their head it's not for the likes of them, or simply haven't heard of them because that aren't really that interested in cars, they'll want another mass market car. It may even be electric if they're feeling bold.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280896

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2020, 2:59 pm

UncleIan wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Probably the difference is concerned with the fact that the mini was re-launched in various significantly modified body version, not including the recent ones, which auto express aren't counting whereas the Cortina was made for 20 years in many badge lines and specs but with the same bodies and then replaced with the Sierra.

One can do all kinds of things with statistics. If one wanted to do and apples to apples comparison one would have to specify what is a Mini compact type car and what is a Cortina compact type car and then do the calculation which would be full of interpretation. E.g. which class would the Escort or Cavalier fit into?


In the end, the specifics are irrelevant, they're all mass market cars. They all have "model T characteristics". Like Golf, Polo, Fiesta, Focus, Astra, Corsa, Qashqai. The average Joe that buy these by the bucketload, they probably won't even look at Tesla, they won't want a saloon, or have it in their head it's not for the likes of them, or simply haven't heard of them because that aren't really that interested in cars, they'll want another mass market car. It may even be electric if they're feeling bold.


This is certainly the good night prayers of all legacy auto as it has been for what ever legacy widget maker was facing a new competitor.

The interesting fact is that almost everyone on the planet as heard of Musk and Tesla and yet they have done no advertising. Stressed and busy Mum and Dad might not take much notice but little Johnny and Jill will likely be chiming in about wanting a Tesla.

It is an interesting dynamic just as when Apple launched the iPod and then the iPhone which many argued were commodity products that no one wanted and yet they did.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280916

Postby BobbyD » January 29th, 2020, 4:00 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting fact is that almost everyone on the planet as heard of Musk and Tesla and yet they have done no advertising.


Which planet?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280923

Postby redsturgeon » January 29th, 2020, 4:41 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
UncleIan wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One can argue that the mini was a popular car even though it was small and it sold well, but it sold nothing like as well as the Cortina which was an updated version of the model T characteristics.


Around 5 million minis sold in the UK (not including BMW modern era minis) during the life of the model.

Around 3 million Cortinas sold in the UK during the life of the model.

Thank you Wikipedia.


Thank you for the interesting information. I was basing my numbers on the most popular cars in the UK:

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-cars ... f-all-time

This shows 2.6 million Cortina and 1.6 million mini.

Probably the difference is concerned with the fact that the mini was re-launched in various significantly modified body version, not including the recent ones, which auto express aren't counting whereas the Cortina was made for 20 years in many badge lines and specs but with the same bodies and then replaced with the Sierra.

One can do all kinds of things with statistics. If one wanted to do and apples to apples comparison one would have to specify what is a Mini compact type car and what is a Cortina compact type car and then do the calculation which would be full of interpretation. E.g. which class would the Escort or Cavalier fit into?

Regards,


Ody, it is difficult to take you seriously when you quote such odd beliefs.

The difference between the Cortina Mark 1 and mark 2 and Mark 3 and mark 4/5 is more dramatic than any differences in the first model Mini and the last of the originals. I can't believe you don't realise that. The Mark 4 Cortina is a totally different car to the Mark 1 and anyone would have no trouble distinguishing between any of the marks except perhaps the 4 and 5 which were quite similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280924

Postby redsturgeon » January 29th, 2020, 4:49 pm

The big issue with the Tesla model 3 for many markets especially the UK is the fact that it is a saloon car, this is a niche market in the UK with only 7% of new car sales vs 14% in 1999. It would be a major factor preventing me from buying one.

The model y may overcome this issue.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280930

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2020, 5:12 pm

Ody, it is difficult to take you seriously when you quote such odd beliefs.

The difference between the Cortina Mark 1 and mark 2 and Mark 3 and mark 4/5 is more dramatic than any differences in the first model Mini and the last of the originals. I can't believe you don't realise that. The Mark 4 Cortina is a totally different car to the Mark 1 and anyone would have no trouble distinguishing between any of the marks except perhaps the 4 and 5 which were quite similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina

John


Excellent points, showing the benefits of a having many inputs to the board.

I would cite around 2:20 of this video as evidence that being wrong doesn't seem to harm careers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8qvAgMH0OU

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280937

Postby redsturgeon » January 29th, 2020, 5:30 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Ody, it is difficult to take you seriously when you quote such odd beliefs.

The difference between the Cortina Mark 1 and mark 2 and Mark 3 and mark 4/5 is more dramatic than any differences in the first model Mini and the last of the originals. I can't believe you don't realise that. The Mark 4 Cortina is a totally different car to the Mark 1 and anyone would have no trouble distinguishing between any of the marks except perhaps the 4 and 5 which were quite similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina

John


Excellent points, showing the benefits of a having many inputs to the board.

I would cite around 2:20 of this video as evidence that being wrong doesn't seem to harm careers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8qvAgMH0OU

Regards,


BTW I love the Ford Cortina, my brother had a mark 1 Lotus Cortina and I had the mark 4 as my first company car and it was fantastic.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#280984

Postby tjh290633 » January 29th, 2020, 7:48 pm

redsturgeon wrote:The difference between the Cortina Mark 1 and mark 2 and Mark 3 and mark 4/5 is more dramatic than any differences in the first model Mini and the last of the originals. I can't believe you don't realise that. The Mark 4 Cortina is a totally different car to the Mark 1 and anyone would have no trouble distinguishing between any of the marks except perhaps the 4 and 5 which were quite similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina

John

Are you taking into account the Wolseley Hornet or the Riley whateveritwas, let alone the Clubman, Mini-pick-up, Minivan, Mini Cooper in its various forms, let alone the Morris MiniMinor and the AustinSe7en?

We had an original with the starter button on the floor and sliding windows, then a later one, and finally a posher one with wind up windows, etc.

The Cortina range probably included the Capri and the Corsair if you look at the fine print.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281006

Postby redsturgeon » January 29th, 2020, 9:33 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:The difference between the Cortina Mark 1 and mark 2 and Mark 3 and mark 4/5 is more dramatic than any differences in the first model Mini and the last of the originals. I can't believe you don't realise that. The Mark 4 Cortina is a totally different car to the Mark 1 and anyone would have no trouble distinguishing between any of the marks except perhaps the 4 and 5 which were quite similar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina

John

Are you taking into account the Wolseley Hornet or the Riley whateveritwas, let alone the Clubman, Mini-pick-up, Minivan, Mini Cooper in its various forms, let alone the Morris MiniMinor and the AustinSe7en?

We had an original with the starter button on the floor and sliding windows, then a later one, and finally a posher one with wind up windows, etc.

The Cortina range probably included the Capri and the Corsair if you look at the fine print.

TJH


Then there was the Ford Pubic

Apparently made out of old Corsairs. :D

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281017

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2020, 10:49 pm

Tesla shares over $600 in post market following earnings beat:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3536031-t ... email_link

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281031

Postby odysseus2000 » January 30th, 2020, 1:12 am

Just listened to the Tesla earnings call, recording soon to be available from their web site, which has many interesting points. In no particular order:

There will be a battery day in April which according to Musk many will find amazing, but the issue for the company is not demand but battery production. The semi is to be made available this year in small quantities partly due to cell shortage and there are no plans for other models as these would only divert batteries between models and not lead to more BEV overall. Musk also commented that making batteries is hard and that there have been many improvements in the chemistry and that now the S is approaching 400 miles per charge although they haven’t updated eps tests. These comments need to be set against the predictions of other legacy makers as to how many BEV they can produce. Unless they have some new way of making batteries they are likely to be battery supply constrained, something that Mercedes have recently conceded.

All main markets: USA, China, Europe have different regulatory requirements so that having one factory in each region that can crank out models to that regions regulatory specs is a big efficiency saver. Whether this makes import of cars from China to the US less likely is uncertain to me, but seems that way. Interesting in the Munroe interview I linked to a few days ago, Munroe stated that the cost advantages of Chinese labour had gone and that the US-China rates were now similar. If this is true the likelihood of more US manufacturing as championed by Trump increases.

Insurance costs are now 1/4 to 1/2 the lease costs of a Tesla and Tesla intends to build on its insurance offerings in California, using auto pilot data to tailor premiums, and extend to other markets. This could be a very significant revenue stream for Tesla.

Solar glass seems to be gaining a little traction in California where new houses are mandated to have solar and Musk believed that given the option between a live solar roof and a dead standard roof many will choose solar glass.

No plans to raise cash as they can’t see any places to spend it, no competitors worth buying, and they are now spending on anything sensible as needed without constraints.

No plans to link in starlink satellites with cars. Could be done and could be useful for rural locations where there is no cellular coverage but Musk said it was not something that he was thinking of. This indicates that robotic driving is still focused on the car doing it with out help from satellites.

No estimates given of when robotic driving could happen but it was Musk’s belief that from home to work with no human intervention is not too far off.

Overall it was a super impressive conference call with the clear message that Tesla are doing very well on multiple fronts and that they are accelerating everywhere not slowing in any aspect.

I have no idea where the share price is going here, but for now the biggest risk as I saw it was that they raised a lot of capital and diluted earnings, but they seemed to be following the Carnegie model of building from cash flow. If the things discussed on the conference call become reality then the current share price looks very inexpensive to me. The biggest danger imho still remains that something bad happens to Musk, from a commercial perspective I do not see anyone who can effectively compete with them. As I have mentioned many times, legacy like VW is imho going to struggle to compete with Tesla as they have an extraordinary job of having to transition from ICE to BEV with all the attendant complications.

Currently I can see no other business that has a fraction of the potential of Tesla. The biggest competitor in the race to dominate BEV looks to me to be VW, but I can not reconcile all the VW claims with available battery production. BYD may turn out to be a big competitor for VW in their small city cars and also there is the Honda offering also aimed at this sector. According to the conference call Tesla have no ability to support a city car that many have given the name 2 due to battery supply constraints. Musk said that battery production will have to increase to levels that many can’t currently comprehend.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281064

Postby Wuffle » January 30th, 2020, 9:15 am

A very quick glance at the bbc story and the numbers that jump out to me are the smallish increase year on year in q1 turnover (albeit to a record) when compared to the proportionately larger vehicle sales number increase.
We are all aware of the age of the expensive models and the appearance of the new Porsche in that market and the push with the cheaper new model so this passes the sniff test for me.
In all probability this would compress margins. There will be economies of scale from the vehicle numbers but all previous experience of car manufacturing indicates that the money is made at the top end.
So is this share price move appropriate, given that Tesla are moving into VW's and Toyota's backyard of slimmer margins without the 10m volume for buying the non electric-unique parts.
What am I missing?

W.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281097

Postby dspp » January 30th, 2020, 11:07 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
There will be a battery day in April which according to Musk many will find amazing, but the issue for the company is not demand but battery production. The semi is to be made available this year in small quantities partly due to cell shortage and there are no plans for other models as these would only divert batteries between models and not lead to more BEV overall. Musk also commented that making batteries is hard and that there have been many improvements in the chemistry and that now the S is approaching 400 miles per charge although they haven’t updated eps tests. These comments need to be set against the predictions of other legacy makers as to how many BEV they can produce. Unless they have some new way of making batteries they are likely to be battery supply constrained, something that Mercedes have recently conceded.

.....

No plans to raise cash as they can’t see any places to spend it, no competitors worth buying, and they are now spending on anything sensible as needed without constraints.

......According to the conference call Tesla have no ability to support a city car that many have given the name 2 due to battery supply constraints. Musk said that battery production will have to increase to levels that many can’t currently comprehend.

Regards,


Agree on all these points. Legacy really have to put down $bn to have an equivalent battery mfg base to compete with the Tesla position. As I see it this earnings call reinforces my earlier comment, with my updated end-2019 positions being this with BYD assumed to be in second place.

Tesla : 30 GWh and 367,375 full-fat BEVs
BYD = ??? **
Nissan : 6.2 GWh and 100,000 full-fat BEVs + Renault * (2.5 GWh & 50,000) = 8.7 GWh/yr & 150,000 BEVs
VW group : 2.9 GWh and 48,000 full-fat BEVs.

It really does show the gulf the competition have to bridge. Some of them are trying harder than others. I fully agree with Musk's comment "battery production will have to increase to levels that many can’t currently comprehend." as all my work points very firmly in the same direction.

Regards,
dspp

* using a WAG of 50k/yr & 50kWh to be generous for the Zoe
** if anyone wants to have a delve into BYD that would be nice :)

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Re: Musk endeavours

#281226

Postby odysseus2000 » January 30th, 2020, 7:05 pm

Here are a few notes on BYD.

Overview (wiki):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Company

BYD’s financials have deteriorated badly:

https://www.google.com/search?client=sa ... P4I7wAQ7:0

2019 revenue was down over 9%, eps down over 88% and margins of 0.38%.

They have invested over $1.49 billion in a battery plant that should come on line shortly with a capacity of 20Gwh:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/25/byd-batt ... tric-cars/

A new battery factory was opened in 2018 with a capacity of 24 Gwh:

https://electrek.co/2018/06/29/byd-new- ... the-world/

Giving them a capacity of 60 GWh then, presumably now something like 80 GWh if the latest factory has done well.

There is not much information on them, they trade I believe in Hong Kong and the US Over the Counter market with a ticker BYDDF and over the last year have traded from $5.99 to $5.32.

My impression of them is off a poorly focused business with a lot of lines in many transportation and other areas but with substantial battery capability.

My impression is that they are not likely to be a threat to Tesla.

The other Chinese play listed in NY (NIO) also looks to be poorly focused and no match for Tesla.

Regards,


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