Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Price of model Y in US, after ira discount, now close to the $35k advertised price target pre-production:

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1753 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Cathie Wood puts the boot in to Delaware court judgement on Elon’s now scrubbed pay package:

https://x.com/cathiedwood/status/175433 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[Gilgongo]

Interesting exposition on Musk:

https://tslaq.org/elon-musk-101-an-essa ... s-bongrat/

Having carefully pumped Tesla’s stock price to a ridiculous, bloated valuation, Musk finally dumped. In late 2021 and throughout 2022, Musk unloaded approximately $40 billion worth of his shares onto the open market. This was a staggering sum, distinguishing Tesla as the most successful pump and dump scheme, and Musk as the greatest con man, of all time. Musk used the proceeds to pay taxes, repay personal debts, buy land, pay child support, and painfully kill Neuralink monkeys.

But mainly, Musk used the proceeds to buy Twitter. There were several motivations...

[odysseus2000]

Interesting exposition on Musk:

https://tslaq.org/elon-musk-101-an-essa ... s-bongrat/

Having carefully pumped Tesla’s stock price to a ridiculous, bloated valuation, Musk finally dumped. In late 2021 and throughout 2022, Musk unloaded approximately $40 billion worth of his shares onto the open market. This was a staggering sum, distinguishing Tesla as the most successful pump and dump scheme, and Musk as the greatest con man, of all time. Musk used the proceeds to pay taxes, repay personal debts, buy land, pay child support, and painfully kill Neuralink monkeys.

But mainly, Musk used the proceeds to buy Twitter. There were several motivations...

Super ridiculous & written by a machine, thereby making it hard to sue for libel.

The AI fails to understand everything in any cogent & researched way, setting out a series of “facts” & then writing a narrative based upon them to cast the worst interpretation on Musk.

If we consider the claims made of the number of people killed by Tesla robotic cars & compare, over the same time period, those killed by human driven cars it is impossible not to conclude that human driven cars are far bigger killers and that any attempt to reduce these horrendous human driven deaths such as robotic driving needs to be applauded.

In terms of electric cars the AI fails to note that GM made the first mass market electric cars of the late 20th century, then fearing they would become popular used the courts to confiscate them & crush them.

On & on it goes with all alleged issues already heavily investigated.

There have been several previous well funded attempts to take him down & several fund managers have been burned shorting the stock.

So i have just wasted several minutes reading the rubbish & commenting - more fool me.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Rumours of the death of X seem exaggerated. It is now the most down loaded app from the Apple App Store:

https://x.com/teslaconomics/status/1755 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[Watis]

Tesla is currently making about 4x450,000 = 1.8 million cars per year, with neither a pickup or a small car, both these latter cars are coming and the Tesla semi is ramping. VW have no obvious growt: increasing BEV decreases ice sales.

VW is making over 9 million, giving a clear indication that they are still a predominant combustion engine maker despite their increased BEV & PHEV sales.

VW may only be a relatively short distance behind Tesla in BEV car numbers, but of a much larger pie & their cars are much slower, plagued by problems with troubled over the air updates & do not have the cool factor of a Tesla. If they were any good they would be very popular, but they have nothing comparable to the y.

Comparing Tesla to msft is unfair. Sure msft have potential huge sales coming with copilot, but as of yet whether it arrives is unclear. All we know is that they have spent a lot of money with openAI, but they have not raised guidance. Meanwhile Nvidia which many see as the poster child for ai has sold off from a forward pe of 80 ish to around 30 now. AI is an unknown that may be worth trillions or flop, no one knows. I expect trillions, but as of yet AI at the gpt level is not good enough to reach its possible potential, so the big AI players do not have the high multiples that will come if AI does become important.

In terms of China who knows. Chinese bev are apparently selling well, but there are repeated reports of fields of registered bev being left to rust. The economic narrative for China is controlled by their politicians, but the mood music is one of an economy troubled by high debt, much similar to the problems that brought down Japan. Additionally are Chinese cars good enough for Western markets. They are low cost in China so if they start to sell in Western markets the volume makers like VW will get hurt, whereas Tesla has currently no low cost offering that will be hurt by Chinese imports.

All of this analysis sits within macro forces of high interest rates & global conflict in a huge secular trend away from combustion and to electric traction, a technology greatly superior in performance, longevity, efficiency & low pollution.

The company most well positioned to ride these trends is Tesla. Legacy auto is all in serious trouble & so it is not unreasonable to give Tesla a high multiple.

The Tesla multiple has nothing in it for FSD & Optimus as most believe neither will work. Should it become clear that one or both does work then I expect Tesla’s forward multiple to surge.

In the meantime the game is survival as high interest rates & global conflict create head winds. Tesla have cut prices to maintain demand & are doing extraordinarily well given they have no low cost vehicle whereas Toyota are being murdered, Ford & GM are at loggerheads with unions & VW & the rest of German auto are in denial about BEV.

I remain extremely bullish on Tesla.

Regards,

Ody, you claim in your final paragraph that Toyota are being 'murdered'. Do you have anything to justify that assertion or was it merely wishful thinking on your part?

Toyota are in fact doing very well, following their decision to focus on hybrids:

https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/car-ne ... c-vehicles

I drive one of their hybrid cars and an very pleased with it.

Watis

[Watis]

And here's an article from today's Guardian about BYD and their cars:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/ ... oad-in-one

Watis

[odysseus2000]

Tesla is currently making about 4x450,000 = 1.8 million cars per year, with neither a pickup or a small car, both these latter cars are coming and the Tesla semi is ramping. VW have no obvious growt: increasing BEV decreases ice sales.

VW is making over 9 million, giving a clear indication that they are still a predominant combustion engine maker despite their increased BEV & PHEV sales.

VW may only be a relatively short distance behind Tesla in BEV car numbers, but of a much larger pie & their cars are much slower, plagued by problems with troubled over the air updates & do not have the cool factor of a Tesla. If they were any good they would be very popular, but they have nothing comparable to the y.

Comparing Tesla to msft is unfair. Sure msft have potential huge sales coming with copilot, but as of yet whether it arrives is unclear. All we know is that they have spent a lot of money with openAI, but they have not raised guidance. Meanwhile Nvidia which many see as the poster child for ai has sold off from a forward pe of 80 ish to around 30 now. AI is an unknown that may be worth trillions or flop, no one knows. I expect trillions, but as of yet AI at the gpt level is not good enough to reach its possible potential, so the big AI players do not have the high multiples that will come if AI does become important.

In terms of China who knows. Chinese bev are apparently selling well, but there are repeated reports of fields of registered bev being left to rust. The economic narrative for China is controlled by their politicians, but the mood music is one of an economy troubled by high debt, much similar to the problems that brought down Japan. Additionally are Chinese cars good enough for Western markets. They are low cost in China so if they start to sell in Western markets the volume makers like VW will get hurt, whereas Tesla has currently no low cost offering that will be hurt by Chinese imports.

All of this analysis sits within macro forces of high interest rates & global conflict in a huge secular trend away from combustion and to electric traction, a technology greatly superior in performance, longevity, efficiency & low pollution.

The company most well positioned to ride these trends is Tesla. Legacy auto is all in serious trouble & so it is not unreasonable to give Tesla a high multiple.

The Tesla multiple has nothing in it for FSD & Optimus as most believe neither will work. Should it become clear that one or both does work then I expect Tesla’s forward multiple to surge.

In the meantime the game is survival as high interest rates & global conflict create head winds. Tesla have cut prices to maintain demand & are doing extraordinarily well given they have no low cost vehicle whereas Toyota are being murdered, Ford & GM are at loggerheads with unions & VW & the rest of German auto are in denial about BEV.

I remain extremely bullish on Tesla.

Regards,

Ody, you claim in your final paragraph that Toyota are being 'murdered'. Do you have anything to justify that assertion or was it merely wishful thinking on your part?

Toyota are in fact doing very well, following their decision to focus on hybrids:

https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/car-ne ... c-vehicles

I drive one of their hybrid cars and an very pleased with it.

Watis

Sorry for the delay in my reply, just got over loaded with jobs.

Toyota is an interesting case study of a legacy transition to the new era of public transport. They led the process with their Prius, first introduced in Japan in 1997:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius

Prius over a quarter of a century later are still on the roads & are popular with taxi drivers. The latest range of Toyota hybrids remain popular & I know several folk who speak highly of them. From a technical perspective they save on battery weight & cost by adding the weight & cost of an internal combustion engine with associated servicing costs & emissions. So long as batteries were expensive this added up to a financial gain, but as battery costs have fallen & charging infrastructure structure has grown exponentially there will come a point where Toyota can not compete against battery only cars. As is their once flag ship Corolla has been out sold by the Tesla Y even though the Corolla sells in many more markets. Sales in the us have gone from 20-30k per month to 10-20k per month:

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/total-toy ... sa-canada/

The revenue of the company has also remained reasonable, albeit choppy, helped by sales in markets where there is less or no battery competition:

https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/revenue/

& margins have held up:

https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/o ... %209.87%25.

Meanwhile debt after a little dip resumed its long term climb:

https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/total-debt/

There is growing evidence in irregularities in Engine emissions & Toyota is currently under investigation for a dieselgate conspiracy to cheat emissions tests & there could be heavy fines to follow:

https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corpo ... 0to%20TICO.

So are Toyota being murdered? One can argue that if so they are taking a long time to die, but the loss of market share, the focus on hybrids with coming loss of manufacturing margin compared to cheaper batteries, the long saga with hydrogen are all indicative of falling competitive advantage & challenged management that has replaced the seasoned strengths that made Toyota the power house it was. It seems clear that Toyota are now reacting to change, not leading it & that change has been caused by the loss of sales in the affluent western markets to battery electric vehicles that are currently more expensive, but which are likely to become cheaper than even straight internal combustion engines.

Defenders of Toyota argue that Toyota have played a blinder, kept selling old technology, based on their hard won reputation for reliability while letting Tesla & others build out a charging infra structure that they can use to power a new range of Toyota battery vehicles. Indeed many in the motoring press have recently been singing about how wonderful Toyota are. We shall see.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

And here's an article from today's Guardian about BYD and their cars:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/ ... oad-in-one

Watis

BYD are coming in volume, no question about it, unless politicians hobble them as looks likely in Germany, but their effect is most likely going to be most noticed by legacy autos especially as the cost of batteries continues to fall & internal combustion engines can not be made at a low enough cost to compete.

In a straight competition with Tesla, the BYD models are not currently as safe, refined or desirable & byd auto pilot is not close in terms of accident avoidance, especially to pedestrians, but price is often crucial & I expect byd will prosper as did the Japanese when they first came.

As of now it looks like Tesla, byd & other Chinese makers will edge out a lot of legacy makers who will struggle with cost disadvantages going forwards. The air will be cleaner & children will visit museums to see the ugly polluting things their ancestors drove.

Regards,

[Hallucigenia]

If you needed any proof that the Twitter deal was about ego and influence, there's a new book out "Extremely Hardcore: Inside Elon Musk's Twitter" by Zoë Schiffer (ISBN 9780593716601)
https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-ch ... ook-2024-2
over the past week, Elon has grown more frustrated with the engagement counts dropping; last week he fired an engineer over this," the employee said, referring to Yang.

"He's been pushing all engineers to do investigations daily. Meetings are scheduled at 11 p.m. and often last till midnight. The issue we are solving is simple: why are Elon's tweet counts dropping. It's that and only that — not about other accounts."

The article referenced is here :
https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/14/2360 ... es-twitter
Last week, Platformer broke the news that he fired one of two remaining principal engineers at the company after the engineer told him that views on his tweets are declining in part because interest in Musk has declined in general.

His deputies told the rest of the engineering team this weekend that if the engagement issue wasn’t “fixed,” they would all lose their jobs as well.

Late Sunday night, Musk addressed his team in-person. Roughly 80 people were pulled in to work on the project, which had quickly become priority number one at the company. Employees worked through the night investigating various hypotheses about why Musk’s tweets weren’t reaching as many people as he thought they should and testing out possible solutions....The algorithm now artificially boosted Musk’s tweets by a factor of 1,000 – a constant score that ensured his tweets rank higher than anyone else’s in the feed...

“He bought the company, made a point of showcasing what he believed was broken and manipulated under previous management, then turns around and manipulates the platform to force engagement on all users to hear only his voice,” said a current employee. “I think we’re past the point of believing that he actually wants what’s best for everyone here.”

[GoSeigen]

That must have been early last year. Even I was getting his nonsense in my feed.

GS

[odysseus2000]

If you needed any proof that the Twitter deal was about ego and influence, there's a new book out "Extremely Hardcore: Inside Elon Musk's Twitter" by Zoë Schiffer (ISBN 9780593716601)
https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-ch ... ook-2024-2
over the past week, Elon has grown more frustrated with the engagement counts dropping; last week he fired an engineer over this," the employee said, referring to Yang.

"He's been pushing all engineers to do investigations daily. Meetings are scheduled at 11 p.m. and often last till midnight. The issue we are solving is simple: why are Elon's tweet counts dropping. It's that and only that — not about other accounts."

The article referenced is here :
https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/14/2360 ... es-twitter
Last week, Platformer broke the news that he fired one of two remaining principal engineers at the company after the engineer told him that views on his tweets are declining in part because interest in Musk has declined in general.

His deputies told the rest of the engineering team this weekend that if the engagement issue wasn’t “fixed,” they would all lose their jobs as well.

Late Sunday night, Musk addressed his team in-person. Roughly 80 people were pulled in to work on the project, which had quickly become priority number one at the company. Employees worked through the night investigating various hypotheses about why Musk’s tweets weren’t reaching as many people as he thought they should and testing out possible solutions....The algorithm now artificially boosted Musk’s tweets by a factor of 1,000 – a constant score that ensured his tweets rank higher than anyone else’s in the feed...

“He bought the company, made a point of showcasing what he believed was broken and manipulated under previous management, then turns around and manipulates the platform to force engagement on all users to hear only his voice,” said a current employee. “I think we’re past the point of believing that he actually wants what’s best for everyone here.”

All social media are business & all of them were bought by the US to promote the official line & then X got bought by Musk.

So now we get another take on the world such as this 1 hour & 4 minute interview between Carlson & Benz describing how the us, uk, NATO et al use social media:

https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/17 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Is Benz credible or is he a creation to further bolster X?

I have no idea what is going on, but the news, censorship & manipulation of minds is now an interesting subject, whereas the endless attacks on Musk are a bore & the downfall of x so widely predicted has not happened.

The ideas that Orwell presented in 1984 over manipulation by central authorities are polarizing society into those who believe what ever the media tell them & those who don’t. Who is right & how does anyone know?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Hi phi a luxury car brand Chinese manufacturer has suspended production for 6 months & may be bankrupt:

https://carnewschina.com/2024/02/19/hip ... -in-china/

Remarkable as HiPhi is known for producing highly regarded models & has outsold famous legacy brands in China. Clearly the Chinese economy is in trouble following the EverGrande collapse & this may be indicative of trouble for other car makers there.

Meanwhile VW cars have been seized by police over claims they have broken laws regarding the amount of Chinese components included:

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a2024021 ... ate%20th...

If all these reports are true it should be beneficial for the stronger BEV makers in China: Tesla, BYD,… etc.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla being torched:

https://www.teslarati.com/group-claims- ... %20attacks.

Interesting. Wonder what neoluddites will do as AI rolls out.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

More sympathy Swedish strikes against Tesla:

https://x.com/nicklasnilsso14/status/17 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is a good analysis of Tesla & its competitors:

https://x.com/farzyness/status/17607989 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[Gilgongo]

This is a good analysis of Tesla & its competitors:
https://x.com/farzyness/status/17607989 ... DCpgdbFBxg

I don't really understand why people think FSD is some kind of pre-requisite for market dominance. It really seems more about PR than anything actually self-driving.

Early history: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

Apr 2023:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEPIPzbl6KA&t=540s

https://www.threads.net/@tweet_removed/post/C3sYd4VuMZ2

Jul 2023 "later this year": https://www.standard.co.uk/news/tech/el ... 92673.html

[odysseus2000]

Optimus can now walk:

https://x.com/daltybrewer/status/176146 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is a good analysis of Tesla & its competitors:
https://x.com/farzyness/status/17607989 ... DCpgdbFBxg

I don't really understand why people think FSD is some kind of pre-requisite for market dominance. It really seems more about PR than anything actually self-driving.

Early history: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

Apr 2023:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEPIPzbl6KA&t=540s

https://www.threads.net/@tweet_removed/post/C3sYd4VuMZ2

Jul 2023 "later this year": https://www.standard.co.uk/news/tech/el ... 92673.html

Most of the analysts have given up on FSD, so there is almost nothing in the share price for it as all of Musk's predictions have been optimistic.

If FSD now happens the utility of each car improves from being a one person car to a robo taxi, capable of working several hours per day.

As there is currently nothing in the share price for FSD such a development would push the share price up substantially & at the same moment end the need for human drivers of taxi and create a new income stream for Tesla as other manufacturers license the technology or face loss of sales.

Of course FSD may never happen, but the various testers of the latest version are more enthusiastic than in a long time & the neural net seems to have advanced to close to human level, but will need to get better.

Regards,

[Hallucigenia]

As there is currently nothing in the share price for FSD

An assertion without evidence, given that the Tesla market cap is several multiples of other car companies that sell more cars at higher margins with higher rates of growth.

But then you see that Tesla can't even deliver windscreen wipers that work :

https://insideevs.com/features/706288/t ... blem-musk/
As Elon Musk’s Tesla forges ahead with moonshot projects like self-driving technology and artificially intelligent humanoid robots, its customers are stuck struggling with a much more mundane issue: Their windshield wipers suck.

“It’s the single worst thing about the car, honestly,” one Tesla Model 3 owner commented on one of the dozens of Reddit threads on the matter. Other internet users identifying as Tesla drivers have called their wipers “trash,” “absolutely infuriating” and “utterly useless.”

This isn’t a new problem, mind you: Tesla’s wipers have been broken for years, sparking a relentless chorus of complaints that the EV maker has never sufficiently addressed. It’s an embarrassing problem to have for a car company that claims to be so technologically far ahead of its peers.

And all because they are trying to develop a robot system to switch on the wipers when it "sees" rain rather than just using a <$10 sensor like everyone else. And more to the point, they insist on shipping cars that don't work very well and hoping they can improve it with an OTA update rather than installing a sensor that works for customers now, and then replacing it with the vision system in new models as and when they have got it working.

Yes they save the cost of a sensor, but in the meantime their customers get a crappy experience.