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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#416145

Postby odysseus2000 » May 29th, 2021, 11:18 pm

Lanark wrote:Elon Musk’s recent large-scale transactions in proof-of-work-based Bitcoin released more carbon into the atmosphere in just a few days than the amount saved, in principle, by all the Teslas ever sold
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssil-fuels


Interesting, thanks for posting!

There is often a belief that artists don't care about money & live in garrets with no rent.

In practice artists care more about money than their art & NFT maybe a way they can more easily get the financial credit for their work that they think they deserve.

As things are I still see all of this as Musk setting the necessary parameters to defend the introduce his own cyber & to develop NFT with it in some ecologically friendly way.

If one thinks back to the early computers they were massive power hungry monsters & yet now most carry smart phones that are far more powerful than the early machines & use very tiny amounts of power.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416150

Postby Lanark » May 30th, 2021, 12:16 am

odysseus2000 wrote: ...to develop NFT with it in some ecologically friendly way.

If one thinks back to the early computers they were massive power hungry monsters & yet now most carry smart phones that are far more powerful than the early machines & use very tiny amounts of power.

That already exists, Stellar Lumens don't require proof of work and so don't burn huge quantities of energy, of course they don't offer much of a speculative gamble so they don't get the press which bitcoin attracts.
On the plus side they are backed by Stripe and given time will probably put Western Union out of business.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#416197

Postby odysseus2000 » May 30th, 2021, 11:01 am

Lanark wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote: ...to develop NFT with it in some ecologically friendly way.

If one thinks back to the early computers they were massive power hungry monsters & yet now most carry smart phones that are far more powerful than the early machines & use very tiny amounts of power.

That already exists, Stellar Lumens don't require proof of work and so don't burn huge quantities of energy, of course they don't offer much of a speculative gamble so they don't get the press which bitcoin attracts.
On the plus side they are backed by Stripe and given time will probably put Western Union out of business.


Super interesting and, as you say, a huge threat to Western Union with transaction costs of less than a penny.

Maybe open source like this will defeat closed source profitable ventures. The potential impact on the current financial system is huge.

Thank you for drawing my attention to this.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416297

Postby odysseus2000 » May 30th, 2021, 10:54 pm

Ocean Space Port Deimos under construction for launch next year:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/139 ... 99305?s=20

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416408

Postby odysseus2000 » May 31st, 2021, 6:06 pm

This is an amazing testament to the strength and build quality of the model (no snake oil here!) :

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ocks-video

The brief video is terrifying.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416516

Postby odysseus2000 » June 1st, 2021, 9:21 am

Tesla Shanghai expected to deliver over 100k cars in q2:

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmani ... in-q2-2021

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416656

Postby Howard » June 1st, 2021, 7:08 pm

Pressure on margins at Tesla?

Leaving bits off cars and charging more.

And affected by parts shortages?

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/06/01/elon-mus ... ng-prices/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416775

Postby odysseus2000 » June 2nd, 2021, 10:54 am

Accidents per 10,000 models in the UK:

Worst is Vauxhall Zafira at 511, Tesla is very low at 28:

https://www.rivervaleleasing.co.uk/blog ... -accidents

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416784

Postby Howard » June 2nd, 2021, 11:20 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Accidents per 10,000 models in the UK:

Worst is Vauxhall Zafira at 511, Tesla is very low at 28:

https://www.rivervaleleasing.co.uk/blog ... -accidents

Regards,


If you read your article the accident statistics are from 2015 to 2019.

There were 3.2 million Vauxhalls on UK roads and a handful of Teslas. Probably not even 10,000 in 2015.

According to the article, Ferraris are incredibly safe.

So more accidents in Vauxhalls. What a surprise!

Confirmation bias?

Worth a guffaw or two?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416803

Postby BobbyD » June 2nd, 2021, 12:08 pm

The Securities and Exchange Commission believes Elon Musk has violated his 2018 settlement agreement twice, according to correspondence obtained by The Wall Street Journal between the SEC and Tesla. The agreement requires a lawyer to approve his tweets about the company.

Tesla lawyers didn’t review Musk’s May 2020 tweet about how Tesla’s stock price was “too high imo” before he published it. The company’s lawyers also didn’t approve a July 2019 tweet about Musk’s goal to make 1,000 of Tesla’s solar roofs per week by the end of that year. The SEC sent the letters to Tesla in 2019 and 2020 shortly after each tweet, but has not taken any apparent enforcement action against Musk or the company.


- https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/1/22463 ... tweets-sec

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416805

Postby odysseus2000 » June 2nd, 2021, 12:09 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Accidents per 10,000 models in the UK:

Worst is Vauxhall Zafira at 511, Tesla is very low at 28:

https://www.rivervaleleasing.co.uk/blog ... -accidents

Regards,


If you read your article the accident statistics are from 2015 to 2019.

There were 3.2 million Vauxhalls on UK roads and a handful of Teslas. Probably not even 10,000 in 2015.

According to the article, Ferraris are incredibly safe.

So more accidents in Vauxhalls. What a surprise!

Confirmation bias?

Worth a guffaw or two?

regards

Howard


The accident rate is per 10,000 vehicles, I.e. Normalised to remove fleet size.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#416824

Postby Howard » June 2nd, 2021, 1:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Accidents per 10,000 models in the UK:

Worst is Vauxhall Zafira at 511, Tesla is very low at 28:

https://www.rivervaleleasing.co.uk/blog ... -accidents

Regards,


If you read your article the accident statistics are from 2015 to 2019.

There were 3.2 million Vauxhalls on UK roads and a handful of Teslas. Probably not even 10,000 in 2015.

According to the article, Ferraris are incredibly safe.

So more accidents in Vauxhalls. What a surprise!

Confirmation bias?

Worth a guffaw or two?

regards

Howard


The accident rate is per 10,000 vehicles, I.e. Normalised to remove fleet size.

Regards,


Yes, that's why I suggested that there weren't 10,000 Teslas on the UK roads in 2015.

But are you really suggesting that you believe driving a Ferrari is hugely safer than driving a Vauxhall?

Some statistics are relatively meaningless. For example: so far from experience to date, it's safer for humans to travel to the moon than to cycle 100 yards from home.

And I'd put your article in that category.

Selecting it to show how safe a Tesla is does demonstrate confirmation bias in my opinion. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416828

Postby BobbyD » June 2nd, 2021, 1:41 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:
If you read your article the accident statistics are from 2015 to 2019.

There were 3.2 million Vauxhalls on UK roads and a handful of Teslas. Probably not even 10,000 in 2015.

According to the article, Ferraris are incredibly safe.

So more accidents in Vauxhalls. What a surprise!

Confirmation bias?

Worth a guffaw or two?

regards

Howard


The accident rate is per 10,000 vehicles, I.e. Normalised to remove fleet size.

Regards,


Yes, that's why I suggested that there weren't 10,000 Teslas on the UK roads in 2015.

But are you really suggesting that you believe driving a Ferrari is hugely safer than driving a Vauxhall?

Some statistics are relatively meaningless. For example: so far from experience to date, it's safer for humans to travel to the moon than to cycle 100 yards from home.

And I'd put your article in that category.

Selecting it to show how safe a Tesla is does demonstrate confirmation bias in my opinion. ;)

regards

Howard


Items with small populations tend to turn up at the top and bottom of lists disproportionately often, but it's also noticeable that while they accounted for volume of vehicles by using accidents per 10,000 vehicles it doesn't appear they accounted for any other pertinent variables, like age, installed safety systems, age of driver...

Despite which Tesla still managed to be in more accidents per 10,000 than Morris and Austin!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416947

Postby odysseus2000 » June 2nd, 2021, 11:59 pm

Yes, that's why I suggested that there weren't 10,000 Teslas on the UK roads in 2015.

But are you really suggesting that you believe driving a Ferrari is hugely safer than driving a Vauxhall?

Some statistics are relatively meaningless. For example: so far from experience to date, it's safer for humans to travel to the moon than to cycle 100 yards from home.

And I'd put your article in that category.

Selecting it to show how safe a Tesla is does demonstrate confirmation bias in my opinion. ;)

regards

Howard


Probably what these stats reflect is a convolution of two things: Quality of the car and quality of the owner. The cars that were the safest were in general the luxury ones who will be bought by the most successful people in society since less successful folk will not have enough money for these models. Within the expensive car list it is notable that Tesla had on average about half the accidents of the other luxury brands and that probably reflects Tesla technology being better. Austin and Morris don't fit into this but as both, as far as I know, are no longer manufactured I suspect that the numbers here are legacy cars run by enthusiasts with very low annual mileage.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416965

Postby TUK020 » June 3rd, 2021, 8:17 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, that's why I suggested that there weren't 10,000 Teslas on the UK roads in 2015.

But are you really suggesting that you believe driving a Ferrari is hugely safer than driving a Vauxhall?

Some statistics are relatively meaningless. For example: so far from experience to date, it's safer for humans to travel to the moon than to cycle 100 yards from home.

And I'd put your article in that category.

Selecting it to show how safe a Tesla is does demonstrate confirmation bias in my opinion. ;)

regards

Howard


Probably what these stats reflect is a convolution of two things: Quality of the car and quality of the owner. The cars that were the safest were in general the luxury ones who will be bought by the most successful people in society since less successful folk will not have enough money for these models. Within the expensive car list it is notable that Tesla had on average about half the accidents of the other luxury brands and that probably reflects Tesla technology being better. Austin and Morris don't fit into this but as both, as far as I know, are no longer manufactured I suspect that the numbers here are legacy cars run by enthusiasts with very low annual mileage.

Regards,

Probably more correlated to the age of the driver.
Both a vintage Austin and a Tesla are less likely to be driven by a 19 year old lad than a Vauxhall Corsa.
This would be reflected in the accident statistics

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Re: Musk endeavours

#416991

Postby Howard » June 3rd, 2021, 10:09 am

TUK020 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, that's why I suggested that there weren't 10,000 Teslas on the UK roads in 2015.

But are you really suggesting that you believe driving a Ferrari is hugely safer than driving a Vauxhall?

Some statistics are relatively meaningless. For example: so far from experience to date, it's safer for humans to travel to the moon than to cycle 100 yards from home.

And I'd put your article in that category.

Selecting it to show how safe a Tesla is does demonstrate confirmation bias in my opinion. ;)

regards

Howard


Probably what these stats reflect is a convolution of two things: Quality of the car and quality of the owner. The cars that were the safest were in general the luxury ones who will be bought by the most successful people in society since less successful folk will not have enough money for these models. Within the expensive car list it is notable that Tesla had on average about half the accidents of the other luxury brands and that probably reflects Tesla technology being better. Austin and Morris don't fit into this but as both, as far as I know, are no longer manufactured I suspect that the numbers here are legacy cars run by enthusiasts with very low annual mileage.

Regards,

Probably more correlated to the age of the driver.
Both a vintage Austin and a Tesla are less likely to be driven by a 19 year old lad than a Vauxhall Corsa.
This would be reflected in the accident statistics


Yes, I believe you are right. A good guide to the safety of cars and their typical drivers is the insurance group in the UK. Insurers know much more about car safety than pretty well any other organisation.

A Tesla Model 3 Long Range is in Group 50 and, for example comparing with a similar saloon a BMW 3 Series MSport ranges from Group 25 - 40 depending on the engine power. And a Vauxhall Astra starts as low as Group 9 and a Zafira from group 11 - 22.

So British insurers consider the chances of an accident and the costs of repairs etc to be very much higher for a Tesla than a 3 Series BMW, and much higher than a typical Vauxhall saloon.

It’s also worth checking how Tesla itself rates its cars safety records in the USA.

To insure a Tesla Model 3 in California with Tesla's own insurance, on average an American owner will have to pay between $2,300 and $7,600 a year. Interestingly Tesla do not offer the cheapest insurance, they rate their cars as more risky than do some of their competitor insurers like AAA and Progressive insurance. See link below.

regards

Howard

https://www.valuepenguin.com/tesla-car-insurance

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Re: Musk endeavours

#417155

Postby odysseus2000 » June 3rd, 2021, 8:02 pm

Tesla China orders apparently fall by half:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2021-06-03

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Re: Musk endeavours

#417162

Postby Howard » June 3rd, 2021, 8:45 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
His figures show the ID pack has a virtually identical energy density to the Tesla packs. It's heavier because it's bigger.


The point is that if the battery pack was 50 kg lighter VW could reduce the battery size and/or have better performance.

The figures for the model 3 were, as far as I know, for the 2170 battery cells. We know that there will be substantial weight reductions from the 4680 cells pushing Tesla's range and/or performance and/or cost advantages further ahead of VW's.

If I was a VW share holder I would be desperate for as much weight reduction as possible in any BEV they make.

Regards,


In the short term, I think VW shareholders are not too worried about Munro’s analyses. We are enjoying VW’s share price performance - up 62% ytd.

In contrast, Tesla’s share price is "weighed down" at the moment it has dropped 21% ytd.

It all may change, but the market is probably expecting lower sales in China and, relative to VW, continuing low demand for Teslas in Germany and other European markets.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#417183

Postby odysseus2000 » June 3rd, 2021, 10:20 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
His figures show the ID pack has a virtually identical energy density to the Tesla packs. It's heavier because it's bigger.


The point is that if the battery pack was 50 kg lighter VW could reduce the battery size and/or have better performance.

The figures for the model 3 were, as far as I know, for the 2170 battery cells. We know that there will be substantial weight reductions from the 4680 cells pushing Tesla's range and/or performance and/or cost advantages further ahead of VW's.

If I was a VW share holder I would be desperate for as much weight reduction as possible in any BEV they make.

Regards,


In the short term, I think VW shareholders are not too worried about Munro’s analyses. We are enjoying VW’s share price performance - up 62% ytd.

In contrast, Tesla’s share price is "weighed down" at the moment it has dropped 21% ytd.

It all may change, but the market is probably expecting lower sales in China and, relative to VW, continuing low demand for Teslas in Germany and other European markets .

regards

Howard


VW's share performance is just in line with the rest of legacy auto, unlike Tesla, that are all having a strong month as the market rotates from tech and into what are seen as more defensive areas such as legacy auto:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/140056 ... 01574?s=20

(Click on charts and zoom to have more easily viewed details.)

Longer term price will matter and having the best engineering allows competitive pricing and good margins and that is the sort of stuff that Munro focus on.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#417210

Postby BobbyD » June 4th, 2021, 12:35 am

Howard wrote:
In the short term, I think VW shareholders are not too worried about Munro’s analyses. We are enjoying VW’s share price performance - up 62% ytd.

In contrast, Tesla’s share price is "weighed down" at the moment it has dropped 21% ytd.


The ords are up from €166 to €309 which is a mere 86% ytd using the Google YTD graph, although I much preferred things in March last year when I made a small prefs top up at €91.52. The only day a high share price is a good thing is the day you sell, and I don't sell...

Munro's video is a joke. The energy density of the three batteries he cites is virtually identical, the proposed solution conveniently is to use the products of the company sponsoring the video, and VW already have the MEB pack's replacement's in hand.

The MEB pack does exactly what VW want of it. It's not going to be redesigned. They are going to push it in volume until it is superseded and then replaced by the unified cell. It was there to see VW through a period of supply uncertainty which is why it allowed for use of pouch or prismatic cells. As their supply of batteries becomes more certain, in no small part due to VW inserting themselves in to their own battery supply chain the standardisation at module level will be replaced by standardisation at cell level and the module will be eliminated as they move to cell to pack.

The really funny thing is that afterall the bluster about big oil conspiracies Ody ends up touting SABIC, a subsidiary of Saudi Aramco and backs using their plastics instead of good clean, and easy to recycle aluminium...


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