Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
No Ody, it's heavily skewed by the sale of 13 different BEV models.

VW has staked its future on the ID3 and ID4 platform.

The data shows that these two platforms are not selling well.

The ID.3 and the ID.4 aren't platforms.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
The ID.3 and the ID.4 aren't platforms.

The ID3 and ID4 are based on the MEB platform and are how VW are trying to flog the MEB and as such become essentially platforms themselves.

Regards,

[Howard]

BobbyD
No Ody, it's heavily skewed by the sale of 13 different BEV models.

VW has staked its future on the ID3 and ID4 platform.

The data shows that these two platforms are not selling well. Sure one can hide such failure by citing sales of other obsolete models, likely at heavy discounts but the problem for Diess is the ID3 and ID4 sales.

Regards,

If Wikipedia is quoting VW correctly then the VW MEB platform covers four brands at the moment.

"The Volkswagen Group MEB platform (German: Modularer E-Antriebs-Baukasten; English: modular electric-drive toolkit)[1][2] is a modular car platform for electric cars developed by the Volkswagen Group and its subsidiaries.[3] It is used in models of Audi, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen. The architecture is aimed to "consolidate electronic controls and reduce the number of microprocessors, advance the application of new driver-assistance technology and somewhat alter the way cars are built"[4] by the VW Group."

This platform is for smaller cars and VW also have a Premium Platform for Audi and Porsche.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswage ... B_platform

The VW group are addressing a number of market segments with their BEV programme. In relative terms they have just started competing with Tesla who have been selling BEVs since around 2008.

To assess VW's platform sales, surely one must include all the brands using their two BEV platforms? And recognise that it's still early days in their BEV programme.

Maybe VW are in the nice position that they can't make the cars fast enough yet?

Looking at the UK situation, just after the ID.3 launch I noticed that there were a lot of leasing deals where the cars were available from stock. Now those cars appear to have been sold/leased and current deals are for factory orders. This suggests that the initial production run has sold out and demand exceeds supply.

There are relatively few offers for ID.4 cars from stock. Again this suggests that VW's initial supply to dealers has been pretty well all sold and soon cars will have to be made to order.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
The ID.3 and the ID.4 aren't platforms.

The ID3 and ID4 are based on the MEB platform and are how VW are trying to flog the MEB and as such become essentially platforms themselves.

Regards,

You explicitly called them two platforms, not even 'a platform' which would still have been wrong.

ID.3 and ID.4 are 2 of the 5 MEB models currently available, with the ID.6 set to join the party imminently...

Not sure what you mean by obsolete either side of MEB VW are selling a triplet of models at a price Tesla can't get close to selling a car at and the e-tron which has comprehensively outsold Models S and X to the extent that they've been withdrawn from sale under the guise of a 'makeover' and Taycan/e-tron GT which are doing very nicely...

[BobbyD]

VW has staked its future on the ID3 and ID4 platform.

This is also wrong by the Way. VW is banking on MEB and PEP for this generation, MEB for the mass market, PEP for the more exclusive end. The next generation SSP (Scalable Systems Platform) has already been announced, and is doubtless already in development. That's how you achieve seemless progress without taking half your models out of production for 6 months...

[odysseus2000]

No matter what you call the ID3 and ID4 they are not selling well.

Either punters don't want them or they can't make enough.

Of course it is easy to camouflage such poor sales within all the lines of other obsolete BEV that VW are flogging.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting comment from Top Gear on the ID3:

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/volkswagen/id3

VW’s quest not to try anything too futuristic or scary has resulted in a car that’s not especially memorable

In fewer words: It is boring!

Regards,

[BobbyD]

No matter what you call the ID3 and ID4 they are not selling well.

You should probably look at your figures again, rather than just seeing something you think shows VW in a negative light and reposting it without consideration. Notice a trend? The ID.3 and ID.4 are selling just fine. For a number of reasons including ramp up (still on going) the integration of 2 more models in to production (Enyaq and Q4-etron), vehicles held back for installation of SW update 2.1 January was slow, February a little less so, and March has the ID.3 and ID.4 on par with the model 3 with Enyaqs and Q4 e-trons added to the mix and ramp still incomplete.

Either punters don't want them or they can't make enough.

It's called ramp for a reason... Zwickau passed 1000 cars a day at the end of March, as I'm sure you remember, on it's way to 1,400 a day. Making and selling cars is volume is sort of what VW do... But then they can actually make money doing it.

Of course it is easy to camouflage such poor sales within all the lines of other obsolete BEV that VW are flogging.

This is Gold. They may be out selling Tesla by 80% but their sales don't count because they are selling the wrong sort of cars! The X and the S are obsolete Ody, you can tell that because nobody has bought one in the last 2 years, but all of VW's current BEV's still sell, whether they come with the coveted Ody stamp of relevancy or not.

What next? France stripped of World Cup for scoring the wrong sort of goals? Jeff Bezos demoted from World's richest man because he has the wrong sort of money? Perhaps you want some sort of electoral college where despite not winning the popular vote in the next 20 years Tesla can still conspire to be crowned best selling BEV marque? The wrong sort of sales! Genius!

Interesting comment from Top Gear on the ID3:

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/volkswagen/id3

VW’s quest not to try anything too futuristic or scary has resulted in a car that’s not especially memorable

In fewer words: It is boring!

Regards,

You see it, but you still don't get it.

You'd be surprised how the last thing many people want the 2 ton hunk of metal they chauffeur their kids around in at 70 mph to be, is exciting. How for millions and millions of car buyers the car is a portal from point A to point B with as little excitement as possible. Doubtless they are 'the wrong sort of customer' and their purchases should be wiped from the statistics but their money spends as well as any others and there are an awful lot of them.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
You see it, but you still don't get it.

You'd be surprised how the last thing many people want the 2 ton hunk of metal they chauffeur their kids around in at 70 mph to be, is exciting. How for millions and millions of car buyers the car is a portal from point A to point B with as little excitement as possible. Doubtless they are 'the wrong sort of customer' and their purchases should be wiped from the statistics but their money spends as well as any others and there are an awful lot of them.

Yes, you might think that what most car buyers want is something that goes from point A to point B and if you did a consumer survey that is probably what people say.

Then there are the people who buy the cars and Lo! rather than slow and boring, they want fast and exciting. Over many years I have watched car manufacturers try to flog slow and boring and seen their sales vanish to other vehicles that were fast and exciting.

One of the classics was the Ford transit. For years van makers said customers wanted high torque, good pulling power and didn't care about performance or handling.

Then Ford release the Ford transit noting it could do 80 mph and suddenly all the other makes of van were either upgraded or discontinued.

There was a similar phenomenon with English sports cars, folk didn't really care about speed and handling and then VW launched the Golf GTI and the UK sports car market collapsed.

VW have made classic mistakes with the ID3 and ID4 and then to make matters worse for VW the over the air updates don't work properly and both the ID3 and ID4 have to go back to VW garages for software. Then they have missed the opportunity of the Frunk and have added a load of ICE like controls as if there buyers are too thick to handle a 21st century BEV.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
You see it, but you still don't get it.

You'd be surprised how the last thing many people want the 2 ton hunk of metal they chauffeur their kids around in at 70 mph to be, is exciting. How for millions and millions of car buyers the car is a portal from point A to point B with as little excitement as possible. Doubtless they are 'the wrong sort of customer' and their purchases should be wiped from the statistics but their money spends as well as any others and there are an awful lot of them.

Yes, you might think that what most car buyers want is something that goes from point A to point B and if you did a consumer survey that is probably what people say.

Then there are the people who buy the cars and Lo! rather than slow and boring, they want fast and exciting. Over many years I have watched car manufacturers try to flog slow and boring and seen their sales vanish to other vehicles that were fast and exciting.

One of the classics was the Ford transit. For years van makers said customers wanted high torque, good pulling power and didn't care about performance or handling.

Then Ford release the Ford transit noting it could do 80 mph and suddenly all the other makes of van were either upgraded or discontinued.

There was a similar phenomenon with English sports cars, folk didn't really care about speed and handling and then VW launched the Golf GTI and the UK sports car market collapsed.

VW have made classic mistakes with the ID3 and ID4 and then to make matters worse for VW the over the air updates don't work properly and both the ID3 and ID4 have to go back to VW garages for software. Then they have missed the opportunity of the Frunk and have added a load of ICE like controls as if there buyers are too thick to handle a 21st century BEV.

Regards,

I can't tell you how happy I am to hear this.

Forgive me but I'll take the history of VW in mass production and marketing over the hiostory of the poster who has so far predicted in this thread that the e-tron would bankrupt Audi and that no one would buy the Taycan because model 3!

The day you sincerely predict success for a VW model I'll be seriously considering selling.

[odysseus2000]

Munro drives the Ford Mach E and likes it although charging was an issue:

https://youtu.be/vgqbPrOYVhE

They plan to buy one and tear it down.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
The day you sincerely predict success for a VW model I'll be seriously considering selling.

It doesn't matter what I predict, its whether the ID3 and ID4 sell and for now they don't look to be doing very well.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
The day you sincerely predict success for a VW model I'll be seriously considering selling.

It doesn't matter what I predict, its whether the ID3 and ID4 sell and for now they don't look to be doing very well.

Regards,

So far your opinion has shown a very strong negative predictive power, we would be fools to overlook such a potentially useful indicator.

[scrumpyjack]

BobbyD
The day you sincerely predict success for a VW model I'll be seriously considering selling.

It doesn't matter what I predict, its whether the ID3 and ID4 sell and for now they don't look to be doing very well.

Regards,

So far your opinion has shown a very strong negative predictive power, we would be fools to overlook such a potentially useful indicator.

All I can say is I'm very happy with my new ID4. I suspect most people don't want a 'ludicrous mode' semi sports car where they are watching the kerb as they drive. OK that's overstating it but seriously most people want a practical car that they are comfortable with and couldn't care less whether over the air updates are delayed a bit.

[Howard]

One fact that is often missed on this thread is that Tesla's OTA updates are a bit of a disaster. They are spoiling the enjoyment for a lot of UK Tesla Model 3 customers. Just read the Tesla threads.

OTA updates often seem to add problems for UK drivers and then have to be reversed causing confusion. Is it likely that most Tesla owners will get rid of their cars after three years without benefiting from a single worthwhile update?

And lots of drivers are having to take their cars into Tesla Service Centres to get things fixed. There are a lot of faults reported which need a physical solution.

Obviously if one wants one's car to be a Robotaxi, OTAs might be invaluable but that development hasn't happened yet.

Oh! and FSD might benefit from updates, but again most Tesla drivers will have parted with their cars well before this is operational.

To provide balance (something that this thread is not noted for). My neighbours have had to take their ID.3 into the local dealer for a software update. This isn't ideal, lasted overnight and the dealers were a bit vague about the car but it wasn't too far to drive.

By the way our KIA BEV doesn't require OTA updates as, so far, everything works. I'd be disappointed if, like some Tesla drivers, suddenly the windscreen wipers went mad or the headlights played up after some update occured without warning.

Ody - a challenge! Can you describe three valuable OTA updates that a Tesla Model 3 owner has received since the car was launched in the UK. SatNav updates don't count as lots of ICE cars get these already.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

It doesn't matter what I predict, its whether the ID3 and ID4 sell and for now they don't look to be doing very well.

Regards,

So far your opinion has shown a very strong negative predictive power, we would be fools to overlook such a potentially useful indicator.

All I can say is I'm very happy with my new ID4. I suspect most people don't want a 'ludicrous mode' semi sports car where they are watching the kerb as they drive. OK that's overstating it but seriously most people want a practical car that they are comfortable with and couldn't care less whether over the air updates are delayed a bit.

Glad to hear it. So far the two BEV owners I'm aware of LF seem to be enjoying the experience.

[BobbyD]

Oh! and FSD might benefit from updates, but again most Tesla drivers will have parted with their cars well before this is operational.

There's a serious question about what happens when cars which were purchased with FSD reach the end of life without ever actually getting it though...

[odysseus2000]

There are some very strange comments in this thread that do not match up with how I see the VW situation. So for clarity here is a précis of how I view VW.

VW, along with most heavily indebted legacy auto, is about to face an unprecedented level of competition from China. I expect this to play out as did the UK auto industry when Japan began to export motors here. i.e. the UK auto industry was destroyed. The Chinese invasion has been delayed by the shortage of batteries giving legacy auto an opportunity to prepare.

Of all legacy VW has made the most noise about how it will create an electric future, but this rhetoric has not been matched by deeds. VW have produced a range of Frankenstein cars like the eGolf, the first eTron and various others while at the same time rushing through a program to make ID3, ID4 and various others as well as Porsche making very expensive electric sports cars. There has been no attempt made to bolster the balance sheet by e.g. stopping the dividend.

For VW to have a chance of survival it has got to produce BEV that sell and become cult cars. A classic historical example was the Golf GTI the first of the hot hatches that destroyed the UK sports car industry.

Sure some folk like the ID3 and ID4 cars, but they are not cult and coveted as was the GTI. This is a problem for VW as they need to show their bankers that they can make cult BEV cars and that they deserve to be able to borrow more both for investment in new cars and to cover the extensive redundancy costs as they scale down their ICE operations.

As things are the ID3 & ID4 are failing as cult cars, being described as lacking memorable features, something that was never said about the Golf GTI. At the same time Tesla is out selling them 1.7 to 1 with no European factory and limited model Y,

VW find themselves in a pincer movement with Tesla hurting them from above average spec and the Chinese about to hurt them from below average spec.

The only way I can see for VW to escape is for them to launch some car that is ultra desired and which becomes the poster car for the BEV age as did the GTI for the hot hatch age. For now the market for the ID3 & ID4 looks to be falling off suggesting they have squandered their opportunity.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

There are some very strange comments in this thread that do not match up with how I see the VW situation. So for clarity here is a précis of how I view VW.

VW, along with most heavily indebted legacy auto, is about to face an unprecedented level of competition from China. I expect this to play out as did the UK auto industry when Japan began to export motors here. i.e. the UK auto industry was destroyed. The Chinese invasion has been delayed by the shortage of batteries giving legacy auto an opportunity to prepare.

Of all legacy VW has made the most noise about how it will create an electric future, but this rhetoric has not been matched by deeds. VW have produced a range of Frankenstein cars like the eGolf, the first eTron and various others while at the same time rushing through a program to make ID3, ID4 and various others as well as Porsche making very expensive electric sports cars. There has been no attempt made to bolster the balance sheet by e.g. stopping the dividend.

For VW to have a chance of survival it has got to produce BEV that sell and become cult cars. A classic historical example was the Golf GTI the first of the hot hatches that destroyed the UK sports car industry.

Sure some folk like the ID3 and ID4 cars, but they are not cult and coveted as was the GTI. This is a problem for VW as they need to show their bankers that they can make cult BEV cars and that they deserve to be able to borrow more both for investment in new cars and to cover the extensive redundancy costs as they scale down their ICE operations.

As things are the ID3 & ID4 are failing as cult cars, being described as lacking memorable features, something that was never said about the Golf GTI. At the same time Tesla is out selling them 1.7 to 1 with no European factory and limited model Y,

VW find themselves in a pincer movement with Tesla hurting them from above average spec and the Chinese about to hurt them from below average spec.

The only way I can see for VW to escape is for them to launch some car that is ultra desired and which becomes the poster car for the BEV age as did the GTI for the hot hatch age. For now the market for the ID3 & ID4 looks to be falling off suggesting they have squandered their opportunity.

Regards,

There are indeed some very strange comments in this thread Ody.

There's obviously no point in reposting the explanations which have been explained in depth and detail on many occasions before so I'm going to leave at at this:

VW, along with most heavily indebted legacy auto, is about to face an unprecedented level of competition from China. I expect this to play out as did the UK auto industry when Japan began to export motors here. i.e. the UK auto industry was destroyed. The Chinese invasion has been delayed by the shortage of batteries giving legacy auto an opportunity to prepare.

VW run their own finance arm, in fact they own their own bank. They make money borrowing money and then lending it out at a higher interest rate. It's a good business. It makes much money.

VW manufacture and sell more cars in China than the second and third largest manufacturers combined, and that's without including Audi who are a top 10 Chinese brand in their own right.

As things are the ID3 & ID4 are failing as cult cars, being described as lacking memorable features, something that was never said about the Golf GTI.

VW aren't cultists, they are the orthodoxy.

[murraypaul]

Top two best selling cars in the UK so far in 2021: Vauxhall Corsa, Ford Fiesta [1]
Top two best selling cars in the UK in 2020: Ford Fiesta, Vauxhall Corsa [2]
Top two best selling cars in the UK in 2019: Ford Fiesta, VW Golf [3]
Top two best selling cars in the UK in 2018: Ford Fiesta, VW Golf [4]
Top two best selling cars in the UK in 2017: Ford Fiesta, VW Golf [5]

You get the idea.

Sensible cars that get people from A to B sell well.

In the early EV market, cars need to be exciting and cultish, to sell to a niche market who are prepared to overpay for novelty or ethics.

To become mainstream, EV cars need to be cheap and sensible, to replace the cheap and sensible cars people buy now.

1: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/new-cars ... cars-2021/
2: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business ... cars-2020/
3: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business ... #top10cars
4: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/uks-top- ... cars-2018/
5: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/ ... he-uk-2017

The only way I can see for VW to escape is for them to launch some car that is ultra desired and which becomes the poster car for the BEV age as did the GTI for the hot hatch age.

To be successful, Vauxhall, Ford and VW might consider making EV versions of the Corsa, Fiesta and Golf.