Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

Elon Musk Verified account @elonmusk

13 Apr 2018

Replying to @TheEconomist

The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it’s just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.

- https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status ... 8461657094

What a difference a year makes...

[dspp]

"Tesla is not allowing range upgrade on new 150 km Model 3 in Canada – DO NOT BUY

We contacted a Tesla spokesperson about the situation and the automaker confirmed that they are not offering any range upgrade through a software update for the base version at $45,000. That’s despite them having cut the range in half and only having reduced the price by $2,000."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-mo ... de-canada/

popcorn moment dspp

[BobbyD]

"Tesla is not allowing range upgrade on new 150 km Model 3 in Canada – DO NOT BUY

We contacted a Tesla spokesperson about the situation and the automaker confirmed that they are not offering any range upgrade through a software update for the base version at $45,000. That’s despite them having cut the range in half and only having reduced the price by $2,000."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-mo ... de-canada/

popcorn moment dspp

The world's most ecologically unfriendly and worst value compliance vehicle?

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:
Politicians in many regions get money from legacy auto & legacy ice fuels & are now doing their best to make sure these supporters make as much money as possible from the change to BEV.


I thought BEV was an existential threat to legacy auto which was going to see it collapse weezing on the road side as Tesla went on to dominate the industry? You must keep your conspiracy theories straight Ody...

No.

The change from ice to battery is a secular change which imho will severely hurt legacy auto.

That this is reality is seen by how the indigenous auto makers in each jurisdiction are having the politicians make things as hard as possible for Tesla and as easy as possible for themselves. This is the reality, it is not a conspiracy theory, it is a fact.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

"Tesla is not allowing range upgrade on new 150 km Model 3 in Canada – DO NOT BUY

We contacted a Tesla spokesperson about the situation and the automaker confirmed that they are not offering any range upgrade through a software update for the base version at $45,000. That’s despite them having cut the range in half and only having reduced the price by $2,000."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-mo ... de-canada/

popcorn moment dspp

Highly likely this is a deliberate fake or incorrect reporting.

imho Tesla will offer unlocks despite what the media print.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

"Tesla is not allowing range upgrade on new 150 km Model 3 in Canada – DO NOT BUY

We contacted a Tesla spokesperson about the situation and the automaker confirmed that they are not offering any range upgrade through a software update for the base version at $45,000. That’s despite them having cut the range in half and only having reduced the price by $2,000."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-mo ... de-canada/

popcorn moment dspp

Highly likely this is a deliberate fake or incorrect reporting.

imho Tesla will offer unlocks despite what the media print.

Regards,

This price restructuring was never about the SR. Tesla doesn't want to sell the SR. You have to phone them up to buy the SR, including this crippled Canadian compliance crock. It's about the SR+ which Tesla do want to sell, which is on Tesla's website, and which now comes within the Canadian subsidy.

Electrek can hardly be accused of anti-Tesla bias. It's possible Tesla's spokesman, or for that matter their CEO, hasn't got or communicated a clear plan regarding Canadian upgrades, but to accuse a journalist of deliberately faking stories just because you don't like the content is unwarranted and unwise. The knee jerk resort to yet another conspiracy theory doesn't really reflect well on your position, especially when you have to ignore the fact that the story is entirely consistent with Tesla's desire to have a cheap model 3 without ever actually having to sell any.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD

This price restructuring was never about the SR. Tesla doesn't want to sell the SR. You have to phone them up to buy the SR, including this crippled Canadian compliance crock. It's about the SR+ which Tesla do want to sell, which is on Tesla's website, and which now comes within the Canadian subsidy.

Electrek can hardly be accused of anti-Tesla bias. It's possible Tesla's spokesman, or for that matter their CEO, hasn't got or communicated a clear plan regarding Canadian upgrades, but to accuse a journalist of deliberately faking stories just because you don't like the content is unwarranted and unwise. The knee jerk resort to yet another conspiracy theory doesn't really reflect well on your position, especially when you have to ignore the fact that the story is entirely consistent with Tesla's desire to have a cheap model 3 without ever actually having to sell any.

My position is based on many years experience watching all these kinds of shenanigans.

What is said, what is written down is not gospel in anything with emotions: business, politics, love...

In these endeavours nothing is absolute or certain. This is not engineering or science.

As an investor or trader one has to read between the lines, to anticipate what is really meant, what will likely happen & to hold both the bear & bull case similtaneously in ones head.

Sure Tesla would like to flog the most expensive car possible, but we all know that everyone has financial constraints, some will want the cheapest model available. If I was buying new I would likely go that route as I am convinced that a SR is better than any other car & for what I would use it for it would suit me. The only problem for me is that new involved one of the quadruplet of very bad D words: Death, Divorce, Debt & Depreciation. My prime directive is to avoid Depreciation.

But I am not typical, most folk want the newest stuff & don't care about depreciation & I believe that enough folk will buy the model 3 to make Tesla some good profits, but clearly that has not happened so far in 2019. Hence I am currently wrong & I may stay wrong, we shall see.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

My position is based on many years experience watching all these kinds of shenanigans.

You just accused a Tesla-friendly source of wilfully and deliberately disseminating anti-Tesla propaganda and then added a comedy '...allegedly', rather than countenance the possibility that something entirely in keeping with Tesla operations might be true.

[odysseus2000]

Tesla cars will increase in value, negative depreciation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/elon-mu ... mpany.html

Great marketing, but whether it will happen is another thing.

Like many great magicians it is the promise of what is hidden up the sleeve that is far more interesting than what ever comes out, unless they really have something special.

I imagine short term that this will not hurt sales, but I am not convinced enough to be a buyer.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

If Musk really wants to make a truly efficient good value model 3 with a limited range that is not upgradeable, why not just remove half the battery array. The weight savings would increase efficiency and profit margin would surely be better than providing a software locked full battery, saving around 250kg, that's like losing three passengers!

John

[Archtronics]

I don't see many people in the UK anyway buying many model 3's, the trend atm is away from saloon/coupe cars towards small Suv's/crossovers.

Tesla would be better off fast tracking the y or whatever its called.

[dspp]

I don't see many people in the UK anyway buying many model 3's, the trend atm is away from saloon/coupe cars towards small Suv's/crossovers. Tesla would be better off fast tracking the y or whatever its called.

A,
I think that there is a cultural gap in the Tesla design studio when it comes to European, and to an extent Asian, views on estates and hatchbacks. I am gobsmacked that the 3 design prevents a hatchback, especially when considering the rigidity of the underpinning skateboard. That said it is clear that they are pushing the Y forwards just as fast as possible. Also I personally know BMW saloon drivers who are seriously looking at the Tesla 3 for their next (and only) vehicle.

"Tesla is not allowing range upgrade on new 150 km Model 3 in Canada – DO NOT BUY

We contacted a Tesla spokesperson about the situation and the automaker confirmed that they are not offering any range upgrade through a software update for the base version at $45,000. That’s despite them having cut the range in half and only having reduced the price by $2,000."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/02/tesla-mo ... de-canada/

popcorn moment dspp

Highly likely this is a deliberate fake or incorrect reporting.

imho Tesla will offer unlocks despite what the media print.

Regards,

This price restructuring was never about the SR. Tesla doesn't want to sell the SR. You have to phone them up to buy the SR, including this crippled Canadian compliance crock. It's about the SR+ which Tesla do want to sell, which is on Tesla's website, and which now comes within the Canadian subsidy.

Electrek can hardly be accused of anti-Tesla bias. It's possible Tesla's spokesman, or for that matter their CEO, hasn't got or communicated a clear plan regarding Canadian upgrades, but to accuse a journalist of deliberately faking stories just because you don't like the content is unwarranted and unwise. The knee jerk resort to yet another conspiracy theory doesn't really reflect well on your position, especially when you have to ignore the fact that the story is entirely consistent with Tesla's desire to have a cheap model 3 without ever actually having to sell any.

BD,
I agree with the underlying which is that Tesla do not want to sell the basic SR, or indeed crippled SR- compliance vehicles. As we can all see this is because a) SR margins are extremely poor and b) imho they worry about user experience contaminating the main brand identity. The reason they choose to do it at all is because otherwise they are gamed into a corner by their opponents, and if you do not have a way to fight back you surrender control of the game entirely to your opponents. The reason they choose not to half-stuff the packs is a) minimise mfg complexity; and b) after market upsell. I can see the call & response going on wrt skirmishing on whether (or not) and when (or never) the unlock upsell moment may come, but I think that is a combination of rapidity of decision making, and c-up, i.e. not some evil conspiracy. So, as I said, popcorn moment. The same will get played out in other jurisdictions including at the £40,000.00 luxury tax edge in the UK. This is normal rational microeconomic behaviour beloved of anybody who studies tax systems. And - as I have said before - the underlying investor play here imho is a triple one: automotive + autonomy + storage, and I don't see that as being threatened by these minor skirmishes. I wouldn't be an investor in this if it were 'just' a BEV firm.

All,
Raising $2bn at this moment has put a very effective floor under the Tesla shareprice for a useful period of time. That has got to make any serious shorter think long and hard about how exposed to be, and how aggressive to get. Since one of the big risks for a weenie private investor like me was that the shorters drove the price down below whatever was the margin call on Musk's personal loans, which in turn would lead to a collapsing shareprice, that risk is now essentially off the table for the foreseeable future. Also, at a more fundamental level, running out of working capital creates bad behaviours (which have been evidently on show) and risks bankruptcy (ch 11), and again a $2bn raise essentially removes that risk for the remainder of 2019 imho. At a $42bn mkt cap a $2bn raise is a level of dilution that I am comfortable with, and judging by the speed with which it is done, so too are many others. I suspect the SEC-Musk issues prevented it being done earlier, and that reflects on poor judgement by Musk, but we are all human.

Watching the other auto companies and buyer anecdotes regarding their BEV offerings, there is clearly a major supply side battery constraint. I'd rather be in that position in Tesla's shoes with half the world supply sewn up

Anyway I managed to get a few at $240 with the spare cash I had under the mattress. We will see whether I was right to do so. Does anybody have a view on whether it is better to take the convertibles, and if so what the mechanics & admin are like as a UK retail investor ?

regards, dspp

[Howard]

If Musk really wants to make a truly efficient good value model 3 with a limited range that is not upgradeable, why not just remove half the battery array. The weight savings would increase efficiency and profit margin would surely be better than providing a software locked full battery, saving around 250kg, that's like losing three passengers!

John

Yes, as I think we have agreed before, a £25k model 3 with a half-sized battery and a range of 250 miles might be a winner if it was reliable. And agreeing with Archtronics, add a hatchback (which cures the leaky boot problem) and you have a car which addresses a significant market segment.

I am coming close to describing an E Golf. VW claim to be on the way to address that market with a new EV model range and others are on the case too. VW make profits addressing that segment with ICE models and proven reliability at the moment so they may get there first.

regards

Howard

[Howard]

I don't see many people in the UK anyway buying many model 3's, the trend atm is away from saloon/coupe cars towards small Suv's/crossovers. Tesla would be better off fast tracking the y or whatever its called.

A,
I think that there is a cultural gap in the Tesla design studio when it comes to European, and to an extent Asian, views on estates and hatchbacks. I am gobsmacked that the 3 design prevents a hatchback, especially when considering the rigidity of the underpinning skateboard. That said it is clear that they are pushing the Y forwards just as fast as possible. Also I personally know BMW saloon drivers who are seriously looking at the Tesla 3 for their next (and only) vehicle.

regards, dspp

It will be interesting to see if your friends/colleagues change to a Tesla 3 from their BMWs for their only vehicle. As someone who has experience of both BMWs and electric BMWs, I have a feeling that, if your acquaintances drive more than 15-20,000 miles a year they will, in the end, be concerned about range. After driving a diesel BMW with a range of 600 - 800 miles, it might get quite frustrating having to stop to frequently recharge. And most BMW drivers won't be in the position of charging their cars at a leisurely pace with solar power. So they will need fast charging at home.

I'm in the nice position of having to visit a petrol station less frequently than once a month. I had to drive from Hampshire to Cumbria and Manchester a few weeks ago, some of the driving in the North was on roads where there were no petrol stations for 50 miles. Didn't bother me, even with a petrol engine 5 series, at over 40 mpg with a range of 600 miles, I didn't need to fill up. However, I did drop in to a filling station in Manchester for less than 5 minutes as I was early for a meeting. If I'd had a Tesla I'm pretty sure "range anxiety" would have spoilt the trip.

Yes, charging will improve, and for a second, low mileage, car an EV is ideal, but I'll be surprised if the average 3 Series driver deserts his (now relatively "clean" diesel) for a Tesla.

As an observation, there are only two or three of us who post on this thread who actually have owned (or leased) an electric car. And we tend to be sceptics !!. When are you and Ody going to buy a second-hand (or new) EV. It will be interesting to hear your experiences. Buying a few shares isn't enough - what about some real commitment to the EV dream. I'm waiting for Ody to buy a six year old Zoe and to regale us with its engineering foibles.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

It will be interesting to see if your friends/colleagues change to a Tesla 3 from their BMWs for their only vehicle.

As an observation, there are only two or three of us who post on this thread who actually have owned (or leased) an electric car. And we tend to be sceptics !!. When are you and Ody going to buy a second-hand (or new) EV. It will be interesting to hear your experiences. Buying a few shares isn't enough - what about some real commitment to the EV dream. I'm waiting for Ody to buy a six year old Zoe and to regale us with its engineering foibles.

regards

Howard

Howard,

1. I too am interested to watch what they do. The one currently being tempted lives in a flat in the city, and travels long distances in remote Scotland. And has classic beemer genes. And is from a 'sales' background, not a 'tech' background. It is fascinating to watch adoption in action on what is the #2 life purchase decision for most people.

2. Personally I am in bangernomics territory in autos, and have been most of my life. In the UK I have been the last owner of all of my eight UK cars to date* ! So you may have to wait some time to get an adoption case out of me. Now if those HUR shares move significantly then maybe things would change.

regards, dspp

* minor caveats apply such as where after my use they get used to haul rubble for a month on the way to the breakers yard ......

[odysseus2000]

Howard

As an observation, there are only two or three of us who post on this thread who actually have owned (or leased) an electric car. And we tend to be sceptics !!. When are you and Ody going to buy a second-hand (or new) EV. It will be interesting to hear your experiences. Buying a few shares isn't enough - what about some real commitment to the EV dream. I'm waiting for Ody to buy a six year old Zoe and to regale us with its engineering foibles.

regards

Howard

I have only just bought a Volvo V70, D5, rather new by my standards & vexingly a bit above scrap value at only 17 years old & I am now enjoying fixing various things, servicing it, etc.

So far I am very impressed with it & the mpg so far of over 44 has amazed me, far better build quality & comfort than the Mercedes which I also still have, although I don't like the Volvo turning circle via the front wheel drive I can put up with it.

I build various electronic things as prototypes & for selling & prefer to have cash rather than a new car or solar even though I lust after a Tesla & roof solar too I manage to control the temptation. It has always been miles per £ for me & using what capital I save from the ravages of depreciation to fund various projects.

I used to loathe myself for being so minded thinking I was the only such person in the world, but via YouTube I come across many kindred spirits & I remind myself that stocks are vehicles to make money, not things to fall in love with. I have more than enough other things that I am passionately about & which relentlessly take money.

Thankfully few people are like me & so I put myself into how I believe they think & invest/trade accordingly. It is super valuable to me to have all the opposing thoughts from the other posters here, especially those who like to buy or lease new things like cars, that act as a check on some of my daft ideas.

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) increased its share offering size to 3.09M shares priced at $243 each, according to Bloomberg. Elon Musk is said to be interested in purchasing up to $25M worth of the shares in the offering.

The company also boosted the size of the 2.00% convertible senior note due 2024 issue to $1.60B.

The total offering size could still rise to $2.7B if underwriters exercise their options to purchase additional stock and notes.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3458607-t ... email_link

This effectively set a floor under TSLA shareprice in many ways imho, dspp

[redsturgeon]

Ody,

I think that it is all very well making money on stocks or whatever floats your boat but the more interesting question for me is what to do with that money, "there's no pockets in shrouds," as they say in Yorkshire.

My father, now 87 and dying of prostate cancer has never earned much money in his life, always below an average wage earner but very frugal. I was amazed when sorting out his finances early this year after my mum died that he had around £100k in his current account, along with various ISAs.

This was the same father who whenever we have gone out for a meal in my life since I left home has never offered to pay his share let alone the meal itself! The same father who still tells me to turn on the lights in then kitchen (LEDs) when I leave the room for a few seconds! The same father who moans when the dog that I gave him and that keeps he active needs a vet treatment for something. Oh well I have just helped him rewrite his will so that his grandchildren will see the benefits of his frugal lifestyle and maybe that makes him happy.

I tried the bangernomics thing a year or so ago when I gave up a nearly new car for a 20 year old ML Merc for doing some major clearing out on my house but I was very happy to get back to a modern car with nothing to worry about and for me that peace of mind was worth the extra cost.

What is the point of making money if you don't enjoy the benefits of it.

John

[ReformedCharacter]

What is the point of making money if you don't enjoy the benefits of it.

John

An interesting question which I suspect reveals a lot about an individual's psychology and experiences. Having spent quite a lot of my younger years fairly skint I view my wealth as a form of security against poverty. I'm also not keen on consumerism which seems to me to be a hollow and shallow sop to the stresses of modern life and (in general) environmentally harmful.

RC

[Howard]

What is the point of making money if you don't enjoy the benefits of it.

John

An interesting question which I suspect reveals a lot about an individual's psychology and experiences. Having spent quite a lot of my younger years fairly skint I view my wealth as a form of security against poverty. I'm also not keen on consumerism which seems to me to be a hollow and shallow sop to the stresses of modern life and (in general) environmentally harmful.

RC

You both raise an interesting point.

It’s a bit OT, but Mrs H and I have been lucky enough to go from skint to wealthy. When we were first married my salary didn’t cover our living costs. When we had a family things were tight and an unexpected car repair was a financial worry.

Roll on a few years and I was lucky enough to join large organisations and move up the ladder. Like redsturgeon I watched my Father live below his means. He always turned the lights off but was very generous in other ways.

My upbringing was invaluable as I too began to live below my means and invest our surplus income.

Gradually in a good year I earned more from investing than from working. In the bad old years of 2000/1 investment losses were huge - around the value of a decent house.

A year or two later I decided to get some tangible value from some of my shares which hadn’t tanked so sold some to fund a Porsche 911. Nice car, but it gave me backache.

However, I learned a valuable lesson. Having given away a large amount of money before the 2000 crash, I realised that the value of the gifts hadn’t diminished at all and in fact had appreciated and were paying non financial “dividends”.

We also had the chance to go on some fancy holidays, Concorde to New York and some nice cruises etc.

Being rather analytical, and guilty about my environmental footprint, I compared buying the Porsche with a fancy holiday to Australia for two and convinced myself that it was far more environmentally friendly to drive the Porsche for three years (instead of a Toyota Prius) and sell it on rather than fly to Australia. The amount of fuel consumed per passenger by a Boeing 747 is absolutely huge.

Soon after doing that calculation Mrs H and I stopped flying long distance. Holidays nearer at hand can be just as much fun. But it is nice to get there in a newish car. And in 20 years I haven’t had to waste time on repairs. We did get stuck in a field once and within an hour a helpful man from Mercedes had pulled us out free of charge. Visiting a garage for a service or repair more than once every two years would be a real pain (and a waste of petrol)!

So it's new cars for me now. And hopefully, like redsturgeon, when the lease is up there will be a suitable EV available.

regards

Howard