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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#238679

Postby odysseus2000 » July 23rd, 2019, 3:36 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:There is a huge commercial opportunity here to create wealth & make the country better, but I fear the UK is incapable of making it happen & we will just see lots of price rises & a very slow roll out creating an unhappy collision between reality & rhetoric that will eventually break to going hell for leather for BEV.

The folk who have invested in solar & storage will do very well. Some one with their own system who has a company car & saves the BIK tax will have a very substantial windfall that will offset the capex in the short term & bring benefits for perhaps 20 years. Of course many folk do no live in the same house for 20 years, but I foresee a time quickly where a house with out solar & storage will go for a discount to one that has, especially as the tax & contract that are now in place are not as generously as they were only a short time ago so that adding solar is becoming a more expensive proposition only working out well if the house hold has electric cars.

Regards,


Ody

You may be right, but we consumers can be motivated by different stimuli. Where I live, houses with ugly utilitarian add-on solar panels on the roof sell at a discount to houses which look more attractive to a buyer. New-build houses are incorporating much more tastefully located panel arrays. But these aren't cheap!

Friends and neighbours who installed panels at the optimum time in 2008/9 paid about £10k for their installations and have been getting a return of around £1,000 a year since then, less the cost of replacing inverters which have started to cost around £2,000 to have fitted around now. Quite a nice return as long as their panels don't need any expensive maintenance.

However, I notionally invested the 10k in my ISA portfolio and this has nearly trebled in value since 2008 in capital terms and with dividends re-invested I still have the 30k capital which is now earning more than £1,000 a year in dividends. And I don't have scruffy-looking ten-year old panels disfiguring my roof. :D

My point is that a huge market segment of the car-buying public aren't persuaded by engineering arguments but by intangible and cultural features. Gentle and refined acceleration and a nicely designed hatchback may suit our style of driving better than the alternative. And, yes, we might pay for panels tastefully hidden on a new house but we aint paying a premium to move to an eyesore!

regards

Howard


As always it comes down to what you want and the risks you are prepared to take.

2008 was a great year to invest, but there is risk, over which you have no control, that your ISA could fall in value and the dividends be cut.

A solar and storage system also has risk but over a 20 year period with insurance, guaranteed performance and sales agreement the risk imho seems much lower than an equity investment.

I have no certainty in how the tackling of carbon emissions will go and what the politicians will do to fund what ever they manadate, or whether there will be huge technology leaps making current systems obsolete or solar tiles more compelling etc, but as a way to lock in performance a solar plus storage system looks imho to be better than money in the bank, especially given the low bank interest rates. I am e.g. reading that the Benefit in Kind tax saving for an electric car will be around £5-6k for a higher rate tax paper, the sort of cost of a solar panel system that will likely last 20 years.

Aesthetic considerations may of course trump investment considerations.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238685

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2019, 3:55 pm

Howard wrote:The BEV revolution is moving forward but at a very slow pace at the moment. Tesla has sold less than 400 cars this month in Norway, the most subsidised and charger-rich market in the world. :)


The rate of growth is fairly impressive though, if it keeps rolling over at this pace pretty soon we will be talking about a decent number of cars. There's also the old chicken and egg problem, as more choice and cheaper vehicles and better infrastructure become available more people will seriously consider BEV, and as more people buy BEV's more companies will look at getting serious about BEV's and BEV infrastructure.

I'd also avoid using Tesla as a yard stick for BEV health, the real sign the market is kicking on will be Tesla's declining percentage of the BEV market as the market matures.

Howard wrote:An interesting post from Teslarati

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-e-tron-m ... sla-store/


The comments under some of the articles on this and the new VW moon landing add https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... syrrGlOz6I have been keeping me amused for days with their contradictory anti-VW arguments.

Advertising your £70,000 BEV to people already prepared to spend a lot of money on a BEV would seem rather obvious, and I very much doubt the cost of a pavement stall is going to hit their bottom line. Low risk with potentially great pay off, they'd be stupid not to. Though it would be nice if there were someone there so they could have the doors open, let people sit in Audi comfort, see a UI in a BEV which was actually designed with normal car buyers in mind rather than tech obsessed millennials, hear the clunk of a German built door etc.

odysseus2000 wrote:Isn't marketing great!

Build an inferior product & make a sales point out of how slow it is.

Audi has built its reputation by building faster cars than BMW & now they are trying to get their customers to change their mind set.

Or to put it in more simple terms, the e-torn is not as good as a Tesla, but is priced as though it is & they have slipped the reviewers brown envelopes to make their case.


Your inability to accept other people's opinions even when they are backing theirs with £70,000 and you are backing yours with hot air is quite impressive. Nice to see another conspiracy theory added to the pile though.

The e-tron is leaving the Tesla model S and model X in the dust, in fact looking at available data for sales so far this month in Europe it's not a million miles behind the model 3, the self-proclaimed greatest car in the world, invading Europe now at half the price etc etc etc.

NE, NO + SP MTD

Model 3______746

e-tron_______472

Model S______125

Model X_______59

https://eu-evs.com/

The e-tron is in its own terms so far proving to be something of a success for Audi. Tesla might want to reconsider their decision not to refit the S and X, or consider their future.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238693

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2019, 4:26 pm

Should probably have included 591 e-Golfs on that list...

This spreadsheet purports to log ships carrying Teslas: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

No idea if it is accurate. I had assumed that Tesla's second place to VW in BEV sales in the three countries we have figures for so far this month would mean Tesla had a boat about to dock, but apparently not this month.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238707

Postby odysseus2000 » July 23rd, 2019, 4:47 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:The BEV revolution is moving forward but at a very slow pace at the moment. Tesla has sold less than 400 cars this month in Norway, the most subsidised and charger-rich market in the world. :)


The rate of growth is fairly impressive though, if it keeps rolling over at this pace pretty soon we will be talking about a decent number of cars. There's also the old chicken and egg problem, as more choice and cheaper vehicles and better infrastructure become available more people will seriously consider BEV, and as more people buy BEV's more companies will look at getting serious about BEV's and BEV infrastructure.

I'd also avoid using Tesla as a yard stick for BEV health, the real sign the market is kicking on will be Tesla's declining percentage of the BEV market as the market matures.

Howard wrote:An interesting post from Teslarati

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-e-tron-m ... sla-store/


The comments under some of the articles on this and the new VW moon landing add https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... syrrGlOz6I have been keeping me amused for days with their contradictory anti-VW arguments.

Advertising your £70,000 BEV to people already prepared to spend a lot of money on a BEV would seem rather obvious, and I very much doubt the cost of a pavement stall is going to hit their bottom line. Low risk with potentially great pay off, they'd be stupid not to. Though it would be nice if there were someone there so they could have the doors open, let people sit in Audi comfort, see a UI in a BEV which was actually designed with normal car buyers in mind rather than tech obsessed millennials, hear the clunk of a German built door etc.

odysseus2000 wrote:Isn't marketing great!

Build an inferior product & make a sales point out of how slow it is.

Audi has built its reputation by building faster cars than BMW & now they are trying to get their customers to change their mind set.

Or to put it in more simple terms, the e-torn is not as good as a Tesla, but is priced as though it is & they have slipped the reviewers brown envelopes to make their case.


Your inability to accept other people's opinions even when they are backing theirs with £70,000 and you are backing yours with hot air is quite impressive. Nice to see another conspiracy theory added to the pile though.

The e-tron is leaving the Tesla model S and model X in the dust, in fact looking at available data for sales so far this month in Europe it's not a million miles behind the model 3, the self-proclaimed greatest car in the world, invading Europe now at half the price etc etc etc.

NE, NO + SP MTD

Model 3______746

e-tron_______472

Model S______125

Model X_______59

https://eu-evs.com/

The e-tron is in its own terms so far proving to be something of a success for Audi. Tesla might want to reconsider their decision not to refit the S and X, or consider their future.


https://eu-evs.com

In the Netherlands the 3 has sold over 6500, the e-tron less than 500

Regardsm

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238714

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2019, 5:04 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
In the Netherlands the 3 has sold over 6500, the e-tron less than 500

Regardsm


473 so far this month.

...and the 3 should be massively outselling the e-tron. The X is the logical comparison.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238725

Postby Howard » July 23rd, 2019, 5:52 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:The BEV revolution is moving forward but at a very slow pace at the moment. Tesla has sold less than 400 cars this month in Norway, the most subsidised and charger-rich market in the world. :)


The rate of growth is fairly impressive though, if it keeps rolling over at this pace pretty soon we will be talking about a decent number of cars. There's also the old chicken and egg problem, as more choice and cheaper vehicles and better infrastructure become available more people will seriously consider BEV, and as more people buy BEV's more companies will look at getting serious about BEV's and BEV infrastructure.



Do you know how many BEVs are being sold worldwide? And is the rate of growth significant enough to make it a decent number of cars in absolute terms.

Looking at Wikipedia, they suggest that 1 in 250 cars sold in 2018 was a plug-in vehicle. Given that PHEVs hugely outnumber BEVs I'm guessing that BEVs account for something like around 1 in 5,000 cars. So they will need a humungous growth rate to be a decent proportion of all cars sold within the next five years.

And cities are going to have to concentrate on replacing the really dirty diesel buses and lorries as well as other agents of pollution which will take some financing. So whilst I agree sales of BEVs are increasing, they will probably suffer a lot of growing pains before they account for, say, 25% of new car sales worldwide.

And while this is a bit off topic, if the average consumer really wants to reduce their environmental footprint, it would be far more effective for them to stop flying on long-distance holidays. The fuel consumption of an aircraft per passenger is hugely greater than the fuel consumption of a motorist. Governments are going to have to concentrate some of their efforts and finance on reducing this pollution as well. I was at Heathrow, meeting someone the other day and you can smell jet fuel, literally a mile away just from taxiing aircraft. The combustion products of jet engines are being rained down on our cities every day and cleaning up this problem will take some focus away from subsidising BEVs.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238737

Postby dspp » July 23rd, 2019, 6:18 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard

As you suggest, the infrastructure to put in high power chargers won't be cheap, so councils will be looking to recoup their costs. Unlike car manufacturers they won't have other revenue sources to subsidise. Obviously big cities will have pollution reduction as a high priority but it is going to cost a fortune. Forecasts are cheap, but implementation is going to be costly for council tax payers if BEV owners are to be subsidised in large volumes.


It is an interesting situation.

Historically we would have had several companies going at this tooth & claw, raising cpital by issuing equity & then storming into build programs, but one can't do much in the UK without satisfying various local planning laws & sweetening vested interests. E.g. Who owns the pavements & the roads & how much will they charge you to add charging points & such.

The build out of charging is small compared to the build out of the gas main, the electric grid, even the transition to natural from town gas or the build out of petrol stations.

I imagine we go along at a snails place as each of the many vested interests takes bites out of the process, like the slow roll out of fibre, or Boris, if he keeps his job, commands that the UK goes BEV now.

I would like to think the politicians will make this happen & there is clearly some treasury support giving the exemptions of Benefit in Kind tax for electric vehicles, but I fear the vested interests will attempt to slow the whole business & the electric utilities will raise electric power rates substantially for nothing other than margin.

There is a huge commercial opportunity here to create wealth & make the country better, but I fear the UK is incapable of making it happen & we will just see lots of price rises & a very slow roll out creating an unhappy collision between reality & rhetoric that will eventually break to going hell for leather for BEV.

The folk who have invested in solar & storage will do very well. Some one with their own system who has a company car & saves the BIK tax will have a very substantial windfall that will offset the capex in the short term & bring benefits for perhaps 20 years. Of course many folk do no live in the same house for 20 years, but I foresee a time quickly where a house with out solar & storage will go for a discount to one that has, especially as the tax & contract that are now in place are not as generously as they were only a short time ago so that adding solar is becoming a more expensive proposition only working out well if the house hold has electric cars.

Regards,


Keep up at the back, you are over 10-years behind the (investing) curve

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chargemaster_(company)
https://bpchargemaster.com/

Their business plan was on my desk about ten years ago (well, the 2011 version for angels at least).

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238763

Postby odysseus2000 » July 23rd, 2019, 8:11 pm

dspp
Keep up at the back, you are over 10-years behind the (investing) curve

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chargemaster_(company)
https://bpchargemaster.com/

Their business plan was on my desk about ten years ago (well, the 2011 version for angels at least).

regards, dspp


Ha Ha I am awake and upto date

How many vehicles could use charging points 10 years ago? Answer, very few and in the intervening years when BEV have slowly become available one still sees just the odd few charging points about the place.

If you compare this with say the uptake of personal computers, or the internet, the rate of growth is very very low.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238775

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2019, 9:34 pm

Howard wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:The BEV revolution is moving forward but at a very slow pace at the moment. Tesla has sold less than 400 cars this month in Norway, the most subsidised and charger-rich market in the world. :)


The rate of growth is fairly impressive though, if it keeps rolling over at this pace pretty soon we will be talking about a decent number of cars. There's also the old chicken and egg problem, as more choice and cheaper vehicles and better infrastructure become available more people will seriously consider BEV, and as more people buy BEV's more companies will look at getting serious about BEV's and BEV infrastructure.



Do you know how many BEVs are being sold worldwide? And is the rate of growth significant enough to make it a decent number of cars in absolute terms.


I seem to recall the rate of increase quoted recently was about 60%pa.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#238786

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2019, 10:14 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
The rate of growth is fairly impressive though, if it keeps rolling over at this pace pretty soon we will be talking about a decent number of cars. There's also the old chicken and egg problem, as more choice and cheaper vehicles and better infrastructure become available more people will seriously consider BEV, and as more people buy BEV's more companies will look at getting serious about BEV's and BEV infrastructure.



Do you know how many BEVs are being sold worldwide? And is the rate of growth significant enough to make it a decent number of cars in absolute terms.


I seem to recall the rate of increase quoted recently was about 60%pa.


If we are looking at a genuine replacement tech then realistically we are still in the establishment phase where impressive growth in % terms comes from a very low base and mediocre growth in absolute numbers, once BEVs are established, fears allayed, supply plentiful, infrastructure readily available etc. I would expect an increase in growth rate as it becomes an automatic consideration for every purchase, then the dominant choice, and then growth slowing as it runs out of market to conquer. I'd expect us to be on the, with hindsight, comparatively unexciting flat bit at the bottom of a sigmoidal curve in terms of absolute numbers.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239041

Postby dspp » July 24th, 2019, 10:15 pm

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a ... 6a7c517959

Tesla Second Quarter 2019 Update
• Cash and cash equivalents of $5.0B; Operating cash flow less capex of $614M
• GAAP operating loss of $167M, GAAP net loss of $408M, including $117M of restructuring and other charges
• Auto gross margin at ~19% in spite of reductions in vehicle ASP and lower regulatory credit revenue
• On track to launch Gigafactory Shanghai by end of 2019 and Model Y by fall of 2020

In the second quarter of 2019, we achieved record deliveries of 95,356 vehicles and record production of 87,048 vehicles, surpassing our previous quarterly records of ~91,000 deliveries and ~86,600 units produced in Q4 of 2018. This is an important milestone as it represents rapid progress in managing global logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes.
As a result of this growth and operational improvements, we generated $614 million of free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex) in Q2. Combined with our public offering of equity and convertible bonds (net proceeds of $2.4 billion),
we ended the quarter with $5.0 billion of cash and cash equivalents, the highest level in Tesla’s history. This level of liquidity puts us in a comfortable position as we prepare to launch Model 3 production in China and Model Y production in the US. As a result of our strong deliveries and continued progress on cost efficiencies, our GAAP net loss [$167m] declined significantly compared to Q1.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239062

Postby Howard » July 25th, 2019, 12:24 am

So is Tesla still making losses producing more cars at lower margins? And reducing its capital expenditure?

As usual Tesla appear to have major marketing problems. They appear to be trying to shift volume at unprofitable prices.

This doesn't look like a growth company.

It will be interesting to see the effect on the stock price (down around 10% in after hours trading).

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239066

Postby BobbyD » July 25th, 2019, 1:37 am

...but analysts noted selling cars may not necessarily lead to profit.

...The lower-than-expected earnings also come after federal tax credits for Tesla vehicles were decreased from $3,750 per vehicle to $1,875 after 30 June.


- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... hares-loss

Tesla driver mows down 11 construction cones on video and blames Autopilot


https://electrek.co/2019/07/23/tesla-mo ... autopilot/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9r4nS5 ... r_embedded

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239114

Postby dspp » July 25th, 2019, 9:58 am

A while back I did some estimates of how Q2 financials might look, using the Q2 production data and various versions of the Q4 and Q1 financials suitably adjusted. Now we have the real Q2 financials and we can compare.

item                                      | act          | act          | act          | est by vh    | est by scal 
$k | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019
| | | | |
Total revenues | $7,226,000 | $4,541,464 | $6,349,676 | $6,871,830 | $7,574,725
| | | | |
Total cost of revenues | $5,783,000 | $3,975,721 | $5,428,630 | $4,486,486 | $5,330,940
| | | | |
Gross profit (loss) | $1,443,000 | $565,743 | $921,046 | $2,385,344 | $2,243,785
GM% | 20% | 12% | 15% | 35% | 30%
| | | | |
Total operating expenses | $1,024,000 | $1,087,574 | $1,088,504 | $1,087,574 | $1,087,574
| | | | |
Income from operations | $419,000 | $-521,831 | $-167,458 | $1,297,770 | $1,156,211
OM% | 6% | -11% | -3% | 19% | 15%
| | | | |
Interest etc | $187,000 | $122,941 | $202,373 | $122,941 | $122,941
| | | | |
Net profit (loss) before tax | $232,000 | $-644,772 | $-369,831 | $1,174,829 | $1,033,270
| | | | |
Tax & other adjustments | $-93,000 | $-57,363 | $-19,431 | $- | $-
| | | | |
Net income (loss) for common shareholders | $139,000 | $-702,135 | $-389,262 | $1,174,829 | $1,033,270
NM% | 2% | -15% | -6% | 17% | 14%
| | | | |
| act | act | act | est by vh | est by scal
Produced/qtr: | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019
Model S/X | 25,161 | 14,163 | 14,517 | 14,517 | 14,517
Model 3 | 61,394 | 62,975 | 72,531 | 72,531 | 72,531
Model Y | | | | |
total produced/qtr | 86,555 | 77,138 | 87,048 | 87,048 | 87,048
per year | 346,220 | 308,552 | 348,192 | 348,192 |
| 8% | -11% | 13% | 0% |
| | | | |
| act | act | act | est by vh | est by scal
Delivered/qtr: | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q2 2019
Model S/X | 27,607 | 12,091 | 17,722 | 17,722 | 17,722
Model 3 | 63,359 | 50,928 | 77,634 | 77,634 | 77,634
Model Y | | | | |
total delivered/qtr | 90,966 | 63,019 | 95,356 | 95,356 | 95,356
| | | | |
Avge price/vehicle | $79,436 | $72,065 | $66,589 | $72,065 | $79,436
| | | | |
Avge cost/vehicle | $66,813 | $51,540 | $62,364 | $51,540 | $61,241
| 16% | 28% | 6% | 28% | 23%


As I said back then it was quite likely that my estimates were on the optimistic side, because I wasn't sure how blend and margins would hold up, and in this I was correct.

Now that we can see the GM% has increased, but not by as much as either estimate indicated. This is likely because the blend has thinned towards lower margin models, looking at the blended prices achieved (remember for simplicity I roll up all the other business streams inside the car models so there is likely an offset of the order of $10k in both price & cost the way I do it). If this is now a stable blend then this becomes a simple scale game because overheads are constant and capex appears under control.

There is an oddity about one item, namely that S/X deliveries are 3k ahead of production, so it appears they moved a lot of inventory that was in the pipeline at the end of Q1. But that is not overall significant. They appear to be running the S/X line full on pretty much a build-to-order basis from one shift.

Directionally the right thing for Tesla to do is now to scale as fast as they can, assuming that they have a stable operation, whilst running near breakeven. Basically they ought to build their scale as fast as they can before competitors really start to reach the market at similar scales. In this respect the good progress with building the China factory is notable, and so too are the indications that they will make a location decision on the Europe factory.

I haven't looked any more deeply than this as I have the day job on my hands right now as well.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239121

Postby redsturgeon » July 25th, 2019, 10:11 am

Anyone else worried by the capex spend?

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239134

Postby odysseus2000 » July 25th, 2019, 10:33 am

Rather than read bull or neutral analysis I went to the bears to see what they found indicative of Tesla about to die.

One theme is that they lost money in q1, lost money in q2, therefore it is not a business, therefore it is going bust.

Another theme, S & X sales are being taken by 3, therefore margins must collapse as 3 has a much lower margin.

Tesla have picked all the easy fruit, the nutters who want electric & going forward sales will be difficult if not impossible & will need even more price cuts & margin erosion.

There are numerous new cars coming by established manufacturers who will sell much better cars for less.

Tesla is one big securities fraud, started with SolarCity acquisition, continued with the "funding secured" & it will all end quickly & badly.

The shorts have near religeous conviction & hate.

Various other odds & sods, but they seem to be the main themes.

I have suggested they instead think about shorting legacy, but they refuse to consider the profit warnings by Mercedes & BMW, nor do they want to discuss that Mercedes is in trouble for cheating emissions tests with its Diesel engines & the big stockpile of unsold diesel Mercedes. Many also believe global warming is a joke & that Tesla grabbing emission credits from Fiat is just another example of governmental incompetence or at worst fraud.

Nothing has changed in the bear thesis for months now. It is all getting a bit old from a results perspective, but they are currently celebrating the after hours sell off which they expect to accelerate today.

It is upto each investor/trader to make his or her mind up, but I can see nothing of substance in the bears arguments, much of which is indicative of ignorance & stupidity that has been reinforced by the profits they have made in the slide till the June lows & what they will make today. Nor do any of them make any case studies with other disruptive business.

I remain confident that the problems going forward will be for legacy & the fact that almost no one has any interest in this is reassuring to me.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239137

Postby dspp » July 25th, 2019, 10:41 am

redsturgeon wrote:Anyone else worried by the capex spend?

John


How high it is, or how low it is ?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239182

Postby Howard » July 25th, 2019, 12:13 pm

dspp wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Anyone else worried by the capex spend?

John


How high it is, or how low it is ?


It looks low. And Tesla looks cash-constrained if it really is going to launch lots of new models.

Most manufacturers would be delighted to run their plants at full volume. This is surely the opportunity to start making profits to re-invest in the business.

Tesla are running at full capacity and subsidising every customer who buys a car. It is illogical for them to claim that they are producing a premium car when they are giving away money to each buyer. And yet they aren't successful in producing an affordable $35k "people's car".

It's difficult for supporters to explain what the company's strategy is. Robotaxis have suddenly taken a back seat? And many of us doubt that they can afford to pay the costs of developing new models which will sell profitably. Is it really to sell more cars at a loss?

Tesla aren't dominant enough to prevent much bigger players taking over their small market segments (except perhaps in California) so shareholders who probably can't afford a Tesla themselves are subsidising the wealthy multi-car owning typical Tesla buyer.

Will Tesla get profits out of China from their plant which has been financed by local banks? Doubtful?

Anyway, the share price movement over the next five years will indicate success or failure.

regards

Howard

redsturgeon
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Re: Musk endeavours

#239189

Postby redsturgeon » July 25th, 2019, 12:34 pm

dspp wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Anyone else worried by the capex spend?

John


How high it is, or how low it is ?


It's about half of the expected figure.

Models S and X not getting much of a refresh, looking a bit long in the tooth now.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#239229

Postby odysseus2000 » July 25th, 2019, 2:27 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Anyone else worried by the capex spend?

John


How high it is, or how low it is ?


It looks low. And Tesla looks cash-constrained if it really is going to launch lots of new models.

Most manufacturers would be delighted to run their plants at full volume. This is surely the opportunity to start making profits to re-invest in the business.

Tesla are running at full capacity and subsidising every customer who buys a car. It is illogical for them to claim that they are producing a premium car when they are giving away money to each buyer. And yet they aren't successful in producing an affordable $35k "people's car".

It's difficult for supporters to explain what the company's strategy is. Robotaxis have suddenly taken a back seat? And many of us doubt that they can afford to pay the costs of developing new models which will sell profitably. Is it really to sell more cars at a loss?

Tesla aren't dominant enough to prevent much bigger players taking over their small market segments (except perhaps in California) so shareholders who probably can't afford a Tesla themselves are subsidising the wealthy multi-car owning typical Tesla buyer.

Will Tesla get profits out of China from their plant which has been financed by local banks? Doubtful?

Anyway, the share price movement over the next five years will indicate success or failure.

regards

Howard


Looking at the numbers it is difficult for me to find anything which says that Tesla has been in a better position before.

Sales are increasing, GM are steady, losses are heading down, the balance sheet has $5b on it.

Better is that the business has the best spec BE cars that exist and a lot of folk who want one and no current bev has the magnetic attraction of Tesla.

Looking at all of this I see a business that is executing and growing stronger and more confident by the day, whereas a lot of their competition is growing weaker and more pessimistic by the day.

As I have typed before I am confident that a collection of investors as one finds here, is not the best way to gauge overall punter interest in Tesla.

Regards,


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