Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

The other issue with suppliers is quality, again referenced to Amstrad.

The Amstrad computer business was destroyed by Western Digital & Seagate who both supplied hard drives that quickly failed.

Lord Sugar sued & got substantial damages from Seagate, but was in his view badly wronged in the Western Digital court case & got nothing.

It didn't matter as the computer business was wrecked by the bad hard drives.

Tesla seems to have gone to extreme levels to keep everything in house & under their direct control. This looks to me like a huge advantage over outsourcing vital components.

Regards,

[dspp]

o2000,
It is not a Tesla Gigafactory. It is a Panasonic Gigafactory. There is a big difference. If you are into SM pick & place then you will know that paying attention to who really owns the component factory is important. Panasonic really own the battery factory. Tesla can duke it out with the CA unions as to who really owns the Tesla factory that 'just' replaces the Saturn factory in the same pathway. Remember 'made in Saturn' ? If Tesla goes bust Panasonic just shift to a different OEM to embed the batteries in a shell.
regards,
dspp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_Corporation

[odysseus2000]

Hi DSPP,

regarding ownership of the gigafactory, according to Wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1

>>Tesla owns the land and building, and leases part of the building to Panasonic, which owns some of the cell production equipment.[97] The gigafactory is operated by a management team under executive Jens Peter Clausen, formerly a LEGO executive, who is VP of Gigafactory at Tesla.[98] By April 2016 Gigafactory had 317 Tesla employees and 52 by Panasonic, most of them from Nevada,[89] and 850 by December 2016.[99]

Wiki may be wrong.

I had forgotten about Saturn. I remember one of the secretaries when I was a Nasa contractor was very fond of her Saturn, but I was never greatly taken by them. Still sad how they followed typical GM practice of showing promise only to be then culled.

Regards,

[dspp]

02000,

My understanding is that the core battery IP inc mfng IP is definitely and firmly in the hands of Panasonic. All the rest is structured to maximise the size of the US-flag on the factory, and maximise the US-grants, and minimise the US-tax, and minimise the risk to Panasonic. I have seen nothing in the public domain to support my understanding mind you .....

New and different ways of doing things in the US tend to fail for old and not-so-different reasons: the academics debate Saturn endlessly depending on their political views. I don't think the battery factory is really new at all, just dressed to look new, so most likely to work. The car plant on the other hand is discovering that the incumbent OEMs maybe knew a thing or two about high volume auto-manufacture. Ir will likely succeed the more it changes to do the build the current/dominant way.

All the other stuff with Tesla is 1) an attempt to increase network effects; 2) an acknowledgement that in order to hide the battery cost you need an expensive vehicle, i.e. a high-end vehicle (this is Tesla's key insight as a market-entry strategy) and so all the bells & whistles that go with it.

regards,
dspp

[odysseus2000]

The amount of lithium ion batteries slated to be produced is enormous. Whether the figures and prices expressed in this article come to pass is unknowable, but if, as I expect, we are to move to mainstream electric car production and storage the investment & output as indicated in this article has to happen:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... gs.f4kgsMs

Where I am far from clear is to what extent prices can fall. The article e.g. states that battery prices will not collapse in the way that solar cell prices did, citing mining limits etc, but my understanding is that there is plenty of lithium especially as not much is required for each cell and the other components, plastics, steel etc are also in great abundance.

The article states estimates that prices will be down to $70 per kWh by 2030 from currently <$200 per kWh.

If these kinds of numbers are reached the practicality becomes ever more compelling even without any developments in the chemistry that may emerge from research labs.

One can easily get carried away with hype. The current ebay cost of lithium ion batteries is very much greater with e.g. 3000 mAh going for circa £3.50 (Samsung). For 1 kWh one would need 1000/3 ~ 333 batteries, costing over £1100, about $1400. The figures in the report suggest the cost per battery wholesale, if they are 3000 mAh, is now $200/333 =$0.60 ~ £0.45.

As a reality check one can buy nominal 1200mAh power banks from Poundland for £1. In practice they are more like 800mAh but do include charging circuits, boost to 5 volts circuit, a case and cable. Assuming poundland make a margin the cost to them is probably something like 50p, suggestion the batteries might be 30p, so the cost per 1000 mAh is 0.30/0.8 = 37.5p. i.e. about 3 times the whole sale price of the putative 3000 mAh batteries at the 2017 best price. If this does fall by the expected factor of 3, then the margin on Tesla cars will, assuming the batteries are the primary cost, be very good.

Unless I have got something seriously wrong here, I would not want to be in the business of making fossil fuel or hybrid cars as at these prices electric cars will be eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner.

Regards,

[dspp]

Exactly o2000, incumbency in fossil space could be overpriced. For oilier, for utilities, and for auto.

I think your battery cost estimate ivia high Street pricing is misleadingly high. When I have explored materials supply constraints I could find no issues that could not be resolved in the envisaged timescales through normal economics. The transition underway is viable with existing technology - no fairy dust is required. It will accelerate as more rech is added, but even so will take afew decades.

So short term plays in fossil still have a role in the investment game. The question becomes when to stop picking up pennies from in front of the steamroller.

Regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

A little more research on battery price and capacity

http://www.futurecar.com/article-1346-1.html

These 18650 cells have an energy capacity ranging between 1500 and 3000mAh and an energy density of around 250Wh/kg. While the cells have performed well in most EV applications engineers have struggled to increase the energy density beyond these levels.
The thicker, longer 2170, named for its approximate 21mm diameter and 70mm length, has significantly improved on the 18650's energy density: Whereas the 18650 with a volume of 66cm3 achieves a maximum electric charge of around 3000mAh, the 97cm3 volume of a 2170 has been tested at about 5750 to 6000mAh, thus doubling the level of charge for a 50 per cent increase in volume.
That's an enormous increase in volumetric energy density, and is what fuels the model 3 and allows Tesla's new Powerwall 2 battery pack to boast twice the energy despite being more compact than the original.

For the 2170 battery of say 5750 mAh capacity, then one needs 1000/5.75 = 173 per kWh.

There are various prices indicated on the internet, with this article typical of the sort of thing one finds:

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/11/ba ... g-cheaper/

They believe prices (December 2017) were $150 per kWh, (I assume that is wholesale and includes manufactures margin) so that for 173 that equates to $0.87 each if one assumes that the battery pack and assembly is zero cost, suggesting the price per cell is well below $0.87 each.

The article further argue that if prices reach $100 per kWh this will be the tipping point for electric vehicles.

Kind of interesting that Tesla is, as far as I know, the most shorted stock on the US exchanges.

Either I have got something wrong or the shorts haven't done any research.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Cost comparisons of Tesla model 3 to fossil engined car. Please correct me if you find errors.

Model 3 is $35,000, about £27,000 for base model: 50kWh with a range of 220 miles.
If the owner drives 10,000 miles per year, then that is 10000/(52x5) = 38 miles per day, so he/she needs storage of (38/220)x50 kWh = 8.6 kWh

Price of the power wall is $5900 + $2000 (installation etc) = $7900.00 for 14 kWh.
If you were hoping to recharge a model 3 from storage you will need 1 power walls at a total cost of circle $5900 + $2000 (installation) = $7,900 = £5,900

To charge the power wall to this level you will need on an 8 hour day (8.6)/8 = = 1.08 kw of panels. If each panel is 300 W, then 1080/300 = 4 panels. 4 kw 16 panel systems in Lancashire are around £4500 installed, so about £1,200 for 4.

Comparison 1, compare car & storage to fossil fuel car.

Total cost:

Car £27,000
Storage £5900
Panels £1200

Total: £34,100.

If we assume the car is worth noting after 10 years but that the panels and storage last another 10 years and another £27000 car is bought, the 20 year cost comes to 34,100 + 27000 = £61,100.

If we compare this setup to someone who buys a new fossil fuel car for £27,000 and does 10,000 miles per year at 100 mpg, 100 gallons per year. A gallon costs about 4.5x£1.20 =
£5.40, £540 per year, £5400 over 10 years if fuel price is constant

Total cost is £32,400

If again the car is worth nothing and a new one has to be bought after 10 years, the total cost will, assuming no oil inflation, be £64,800


Comparison 2, car and grid power, no storage, no solar roof

Tesla model 3 £27,000, grid power of 8.6 kWh at £0.15 per kWh, fuel cost of £8.6x.15 = £1.29 per day, 50x5x£1.29 = £322.5 per year, £3225 over 10 years.

total cost £30,225
Over 20 years £60,450

Conclusion:

At todays prices, electric plus storage is 5% more than fossil, over 10 years,

Electric, no solar, no storage is 6% less than fossil over 10years.

Caveats.

There are very many here:

One can expect fossil fuel and grid power prices to increase, making storage likely much better longer term.

Electric cars are easier to maintain and will likely have much lower service costs.

Tesla model 3 has substantial safety and self drive capability that one won’t find, as far as I can tell, on a £27,000 fossil car & certainly not in budget lower priced models. The collision resistance of the Model 3 is by far the best in its class.

Fossil fuels are likely to attract carbon taxes and many will not achieve the 100 mpg I have used.

For London use electric cars have no £11.50 daily congestion charge.

Interested in comments

Regards,

[funduffer]

Very interesting comparison.

I think your 100mpg for the fossil fuel car is very generous. What FF car can get anywhere near that over a 10000 pa average mileage?

I can see no easy way this can be achieved over the next 20years or so, whereas the Tesla is here today ( well almost!)

I would have thought 60mpg was also generous but more realistic, and this would transform your conclusion in favour of electric.

If I could buy a £27k electric car with storage and home charging, I would replace my diesel tomorrow.

[odysseus2000]

Hi funduffer,

Hybrid now return around 100 mpg, see:

http://www.nextgreencar.com/mpg/best-mpg-cars/

Regards,

[dspp]

My calcs are :

Pretty mundane econobox car would be a Nissan Leaf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf

Table of up to date ish efficiencies etc here https://pushevs.com/2017/05/23/electric ... able-nedc/

24,14 kWh/100 miles (read the comma as a decimal, i.e. 24 kWh/100 miles)

So 12,000 miles per year = 2,880kWh per year

The solar panels on my southern UK roof are about 3.6kW in total and there are 12 panels in total. Mine yield me 2,878 kWh per year using my actual generation numbers. I live in a very normal Victorian terrace and my roof faces east and west, so I get slightly less generation than if the panels faced south, but it is spread better into the morning and evening. My panels are fairly typical of modern performance.

Bottom line is that my 3.6kW of panels could roughly match a typical user's car's nominal needs. The timing of the generation vs the charging (diurnal, annual), and any losses are second order issues.You don't need to use a PowerWall at home, just use the grid as a battery - that's what it is for.

My annual elec consumption with three adults in the house is approx 1,000 kWh/yr which is a number that has not really changed as a result of me putting the panels on. So in my case almost everything I generate gets exported to the grid (I estimate 90% spill to grid, which btw I am remunerated on a 'deemed' basis for 50%, i.e. I lose). But if I nominally added together the approx 3,000 kWh/yr used by a car, and the 1,000kWh/yr used by the house, then I could match this with 5kW of solar on my house.A lot of houses can reasonably take 5kW of panels. Basically the UK can match its domestic housing elec loads, and the domestic transport elec loads (on an annual basis) just by sticking a fairly reasonable quantity of solar on all dwellings, doing fairly limited investments in energy efficiency, and switching to EV car technologies that are available in the mass market now.

The auto-driving stuff is a distraction. All cars will have that soon - and the chipset prices for that will collapse as it is an IT item. The real issue is the cost of producing cars at high volume in an economic way, and whether Tesla can do that. Or whether they will go bust, but someone else do it.

Adoption could proceed very quickly when Model 3 (or equiv) are rolling off the production line at 10,000 units/week. But that could take quite a long time, and maybe the short positions are expecting Tesla to go bust before that. What is the break-even production rate for Tesla ?

regards, dspp

[tjh290633]

Hi funduffer,

Hybrid now return around 100 mpg, see:

http://www.nextgreencar.com/mpg/best-mpg-cars/

Regards,

Not on a long run on the motorway, unless someone has invented perpetual motion.

TJH

[tjh290633]

Average speed? You cannot get something for nothing. It takes the same amount of energy to propel a car at a given speed, regardless of the energy source. The hybrid gains by storing energy during braking, coasting and running downhill. On the level, at a constant speed, it has no advantage.

TJH

[johnhemming]

The second law of thermodynamics has a big effect here. There are also losses of energy in various ways such as traction.

An important thing to be sensitive to is that a joule of energy from the grid is roughly equivalent to two joules of fossil fuels.

[odysseus2000]

Average speed? You cannot get something for nothing. It takes the same amount of energy to propel a car at a given speed, regardless of the energy source. The hybrid gains by storing energy during braking, coasting and running downhill. On the level, at a constant speed, it has no advantage.

TJH

Diesel engines are about 30% efficient, petrol maybe 25%, electric engine >90% efficient with very much better torque characteristics & the ability to recover energy via regenerative braking etc.

Put all of this together & 100 mpg can be reached under good conditions, say flat road, 45 mph. I have seen projections that say hybrids will soon do over 130 mpg, but have seen no commercial product.

It has been well known for decades that Diesel wan't a good engine choice, hence all the diesel electric locos, ships etc.

What was missing was low cost, low weight electric storage that we now have with lithium ion batteries.

Which ever way you look at it the need for road transport hydrocarbons is declining per constant number of cars. I have also been noting like for like declines in fuel sold by supermarkets.

Ask colleagues & acquaintences who have hybrids & I believe you will be surprised at the fuel consumption.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

FredBloggs
Sorry for the off topic response. I live in a typical four bed detached house. The roof rear/front is exactly east/west. I had always dismissed the possibility of PV panels on my house. Feel free to respond off the forum if you wish, but where can I find out about east/west PV panel deployment please? Thanks.

A number of the panel suppliers/installers, maybe all, have software that they can use to bring up your house on google map or similar & give you a seasonal forecast of the expected photo voltalic yield for what ever panel geometry you wish to consider.

Regards,

[TUK020]

Interesting and illuminating analysis, O2000.
I read it and came to a different conclusion - that car costs are dominated by depreciation. The way to reduce your costs of motoring are to buy a second hand car that can reasonably be expected to last for a while.

The average age of our 3 second hand Toyota diesels is 13 years now*. It was 4.5 years at purchase.
The highest mileage one has done over 190k, 130k of which I have done since I bought it 8.5 years ago for £5k. It needed a replacement light bulb to get it through the last MoT.

My problem with electric cars is that there are not enough second hand ones around to a) prove reliability record, and b) acquire one cheaply.

* My son thinks owning 3 second hand Toyota diesels is the definition of middle age

[dspp]

@tuk: I'll raise you a VW Golf Mk4 diesel still going at 225,000 miles, still returning 49mpg average. Mind you thee days each service tends to cost about £200 to fix whatever goes wrong, and since I do 20,000 miles per year that is twice a year, plus the MOT.

@tjh: for your interest a colleague now gets 80mpg from his Skoda Octavia diesel on motorway cruising. I've forgotten to ask his average but other friends are getting 60-70mpg averages.

@fb: for a UK solar calculator go to http://www.pvfitcalculator.energysavingtrust.org.uk/ . The annual average decreases slightly from E-W vs N-S, but usefully one gets more power later/earlier than N-S. This is a good thing in a UK context where lighting/etc loads dominate. It would be less good in a (say) CA context where midday aircon loads dominate. Personally I use SolarEdge kit.

@all: try http://www.nextgreencar.com/mpg/ or https://www.honestjohn.co.uk/realmpg/ for real world mpg data.

@all: I would be very tempted by a second-hand Tesla 3 in 5-years time IF AND ONLY IF they properly tackle the issue of residential neighbourhood on-street charging. Needless to say I am having a good whinge to my contacts about this.

regards, dspp

[tjh290633]

Dspp, my car says it's doing 80mpg if I lift my foot slightly. You can't rely on what the onboard computer says. I rely on tank full to tank full consumption, and even that varies, depending on when the pump cuts off. Typically 45mpg claimed turns out to be 40mpg actual.

TJH

[Meatyfool]

The solar panels on my southern UK roof are about 3.6kW in total and there are 12 panels in total. Mine yield me 2,878 kWh per year using my actual generation numbers. I live in a very normal Victorian terrace and my roof faces east and west, so I get slightly less generation than if the panels faced south, but it is spread better into the morning and evening. My panels are fairly typical of modern performance.

Sorry for the off topic response. I live in a typical four bed detached house. The roof rear/front is exactly east/west. I had always dismissed the possibility of PV panels on my house. Feel free to respond off the forum if you wish, but where can I find out about east/west PV panel deployment please? Thanks.

Bloggs.

https://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/

All you could ever need to know.

E/W bearings mean you don't get an excess of power at noon, you get a lower return but your generation day is extended in the morning and evening.

My panels are ESE only - we have little power in the evening when cooking. If I were to add panels on the other side of the roof, I would have a much higher generation in the evening.

Meatyfool..