Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
Define "soon"!

You are a long way from me on your "optimism" than I am on how quickly this "secular" change happens.

Howard will tell you that I have been too optimistic on the date when it happens, but we are now reaching the point when there are enough BEV available for the transition to happen quickly as dspp has set out.

When it happens it will imho happen very quickly.

I can see no reason why anyone will be sad when ICE cease to be the dominant power for road transport.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
Define "soon"!

You are a long way from me on your "optimism" than I am on how quickly this "secular" change happens.

I can see no reason why anyone will be sad when ICE cease to be the dominant power for road transport.

Well until you have a charging network as established as available for ICE, and a capability of delivering 500+ miles a day, I can't say I have your ability to see "no reason". I suspect I am not alone.

As I say when the industry delivers on that, be that top down, or bottom up, then you are in denial. I can't see that happening according to my dictionary's definition of "soon".

[dspp]

dealtn
Define "soon"!

You are a long way from me on your "optimism" than I am on how quickly this "secular" change happens.

I can see no reason why anyone will be sad when ICE cease to be the dominant power for road transport.

Well until you have a charging network as established as available for ICE, and a capability of delivering 500+ miles a day, I can't say I have your ability to see "no reason". I suspect I am not alone.

As I say when the industry delivers on that, be that top down, or bottom up, then you are in denial. I can't see that happening according to my dictionary's definition of "soon".

If you own a Tesla "soon" = NOW

How much sooner do you want it ?

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Solar roof international expansion:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-solar-r ... eu-patent/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Chinese model Y can now be pre-ordered:

https://www.futurecar.com/3965/Pre-orde ... ially-Open

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Chinese model 3 sales volume growing:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581005-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Starlink now generating 5 trillion bytes of data per day:

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/5-trillio ... atellites/

There is also controversy over the Starlink satellites making astronomy difficult:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... satellites

An age old problem setting the folk who want everything to improve but nothing to change against the folk who want a better life and are prepared to accept change. Always a very difficult balance.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Model Y production ramp issues, Musk email to employees:

https://electrek.co/2020/06/08/elon-mus ... 20capacity.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Some interesting quantitative points in this Tesla bull case:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435272 ... ent=link-2

Regards,

[Howard]

I was happy with the references to my views on Tesla in dspp and Ody's comments above.

And,in principle, wish success to the companies developing BEVs. (I may well lease one when our current cars are replaced).

My views on Tesla are summed up in a comment in an article today.

"When it comes to electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), there seems to be a growing disconnect when it comes to this year's situation. While the company continues to talk about tremendous production capability growth, analysts think that management is likely to issue a major guidance reduction."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435267 ... ent=link-0

Is there growing evidence that demand for Teslas is reducing? Outside of California their sales figures are not looking that promising? Sales in Europe and China aren't that good and, closer to home, it is surprising how few Teslas have been sold in the UK, despite the huge government subsidies as described by dspp. As he suggests, the choice of a Tesla seems like a “no-brainer” for any middle or senior manager who has a company car and yet their market share is tiny compared with virtually every other luxury brand. This year they have achieved only a 1.57% share of UK sales despite their claimed advantage of selling direct over the internet and with all their competitors’ dealers closed for many weeks.

Has Tesla got the right brand image? Does the aspiring executive in the post Covid age want to be seen in a car made by a company run by Elon Musk? The German market will indicate if Tesla can succeed on a level playing field with the major German brands. The German consumer is probably as motivated as any to drive a BEV but, so far, Tesla sales have been small.

To be a significant player worldwide and to justify building more manufacturing plants, Tesla surely needs to be more dominant in major markets outside California?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

I was happy with the references to my views on Tesla in dspp and Ody's comments above.

And,in principle, wish success to the companies developing BEVs. (I may well lease one when our current cars are replaced).

My views on Tesla are summed up in a comment in an article today.

"When it comes to electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), there seems to be a growing disconnect when it comes to this year's situation. While the company continues to talk about tremendous production capability growth, analysts think that management is likely to issue a major guidance reduction."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435267 ... ent=link-0

Is there growing evidence that demand for Teslas is reducing? Outside of California their sales figures are not looking that promising? Sales in Europe and China aren't that good and, closer to home, it is surprising how few Teslas have been sold in the UK, despite the huge government subsidies as described by dspp. As he suggests, the choice of a Tesla seems like a “no-brainer” for any middle or senior manager who has a company car and yet their market share is tiny compared with virtually every other luxury brand. This year they have achieved only a 1.57% share of UK sales despite their claimed advantage of selling direct over the internet and with all their competitors’ dealers closed for many weeks.

Has Tesla got the right brand image? Does the aspiring executive in the post Covid age want to be seen in a car made by a company run by Elon Musk? The German market will indicate if Tesla can succeed on a level playing field with the major German brands. The German consumer is probably as motivated as any to drive a BEV but, so far, Tesla sales have been small.

To be a significant player worldwide and to justify building more manufacturing plants, Tesla surely needs to be more dominant in major markets outside California?

regards

Howard

The transition from ICE to BEV is certainly happening, but not as fast as I would like, but it is not too surprising given that people are in general wary of change not only from known brands but to new propulsion systems and we are in the midst of a c19 pandemic with many associated uncertainties which has hit all car sales.

Can I imagine a situation where BEV and Tesla become a foot note in history as a failed experiment?

Currently I find it inconceivable that BEV will not soon become the dominant traction source for cars and many other vehicles.

The more I research the various BEV models makers are offering in the bottom up segment the more it becomes clear to me that they can only sell on price as all the offerings I have seen so far do not have any clear winners.

In the top down market, nothing competes with Tesla in terms of price and performance and so I believe it is only a matter of time before Tesla sales grow significantly.

Of course I could be completely wrong but with the market distortions of c19 it will be some months if not years before we get back to more normal circumstances and we can more directly compare manufacturers products.

I should also note that I think the move by Tesla into generation and storage is a good tactical step should it take longer than I expect for Tesla BEV sales to rise.

It is of course possible that Tesla is Betamax and everyone else is VHS, but the price of VHS are not imho low enough for this comparison.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Currently I find it inconceivable that BEV will not soon become the dominant traction source for cars and many other vehicles.

...so I believe it is only a matter of time before Tesla sales grow significantly.

... it will be some months if not years before we get back to more normal circumstances

This is what is so frustrating about trying to follow any argument you make.

You go from soon to only a matter of time to some months and years in less than a minute of time spent reading your post.

[odysseus2000]

Currently I find it inconceivable that BEV will not soon become the dominant traction source for cars and many other vehicles.

...so I believe it is only a matter of time before Tesla sales grow significantly.

... it will be some months if not years before we get back to more normal circumstances

This is what is so frustrating about trying to follow any argument you make.

You go from soon to only a matter of time to some months and years in less than a minute of time spent reading your post.

Yes but that is the nature of how I approach the markets. I can go from loving something at market open, thinking of buying more, to selling it a few minutes later if something changes my mind.

I agree that most folk don't like this flexibility of approach arguing that things can not change that fast and they are right, but for anyone in the market it is sentiment that matters and that can change in a heart beat.

Regards,

[Itsallaguess]

Currently I find it inconceivable that BEV will not soon become the dominant traction source for cars and many other vehicles.

...so I believe it is only a matter of time before Tesla sales grow significantly.

... it will be some months if not years before we get back to more normal circumstances

This is what is so frustrating about trying to follow any argument you make.

You go from soon to only a matter of time to some months and years in less than a minute of time spent reading your post.

It's been crystal clear to me for some time now that this 225-page Musk topic has absolutely nothing to do with Ody trying to convince anyone else of his investment ideas, and is simply Ody trying to convince himself...

We're all just listening in..

[We love you Ody....don't know how you've got the energy, mind, but we love you...]

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[redsturgeon]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/move- ... ruck-maker

Tesla has a rival.

As Barron's Al Root noted, the trucking startup named after the same famous inventor as Tesla. Stock in Nikola rose an incredible 104% Monday, more than doubling in one day. What’s more, shares are up another 18% in premarket trading Tuesday, giving the company a market value over $30 billion.

John

[odysseus2000]

It's been crystal clear to me for some time now that this 225-page Musk topic has absolutely nothing to do with Ody trying to convince anyone else of his investment ideas, and is simply Ody trying to convince himself...

We're all just listening in..

[We love you Ody....don't know how you've got the energy, mind, but we love you...]

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Thank you for your kind comments, maybe you are right.

I do also look at my brokerage statements as additional "convincement". It has been a fabulous year so far, up over 60% (pre-tax) with nearly 1/3 still in cash.

Billionaire, Ron Baron remains bullish on Tesla in this short segment:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/09/r ... k-box.html

Ron Baron has been buying into the privately held SpaceX too and expects both this and Tesla to do very well. It would be an interesting IPO if SpaceX ever becomes public, but I have my doubts on that. The prospect of getting broadband from spaceX satellites is interesting especially given the week+ it took recently to repair my phone line. High speed satellite broad band would be a good money spinner for SpaceX. E.g say 5 million UK subscribers at £20 per month = 5e6x20x12 = £1.2 billion just from the UK. All of this with out needing a lot of line repairs, exchange repairs and what not, but with the overheads of each subscriber having to maintain a dish of some kind. The sort of stuff that Sky seemed to have sussed.

I expect that, without unforeseeable issues, Musk will become the wealthiest person on Earth and then the Moon and then Mars.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/move-over-tesla-sales-less-nikola-becomes-worlds-largest-truck-maker

Tesla has a rival.

As Barron's Al Root noted, the trucking startup named after the same famous inventor as Tesla. Stock in Nikola rose an incredible 104% Monday, more than doubling in one day. What’s more, shares are up another 18% in premarket trading Tuesday, giving the company a market value over $30 billion.

John

This makes Tesla look dirt cheap on the fundamentals.

Many of the worlds heavy vehicle makers are looking at batteries for heavy freight, but as we know from Dyson, it isn't just as easy as buying something off the shelf.

Batteries and a reliable source of them are a key ingredient for any BEV and that is where Tesla have a huge lead.

Regards,

[dspp]

Ron Baron has been buying into the privately held SpaceX too and expects both this and Tesla to do very well. It would be an interesting IPO if SpaceX ever becomes public, but I have my doubts on that.

ody,
At present the best way I know of a PI buying into SpaceX is via Alphabet which seems a very faint signal. Is there a better one for those of us without a spare billion or so ?
regards,
dspp

[odysseus2000]

Ron Baron has been buying into the privately held SpaceX too and expects both this and Tesla to do very well. It would be an interesting IPO if SpaceX ever becomes public, but I have my doubts on that.

ody,
At present the best way I know of a PI buying into SpaceX is via Alphabet which seems a very faint signal. Is there a better one for those of us without a spare billion or so ?
regards,
dspp

Although also watered down one can buy in to Barron's funds to get exposure to both Tesla and SpaceX:

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2841 ... aron-funds

Regards,

[dspp]

Darn, another analyst passing off my numbers as their own

"Tesla is targeting S&P inclusion after slim Q2 net profit..... Tesla 2022 sales ~1.2 million units "
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435294 ... ent=link-2

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#315755Postby dspp » June 6th, 2020, 11:15 am viewtopic.php?p=315755#p315755

For some reason I can't get imgur to respond right now*, but I had pencilled in 574k vehicles in 2020, 856k in 2021, and 1280 in 2022.



dspp