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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#187776

Postby odysseus2000 » December 18th, 2018, 4:53 pm

Just a few general points.

My observation of SA comments are that they are directly linked to the share price.

If Tesla equity goes up, one sees a lot of bullish articles, if Tesla equity goes down, one sees a lot of bearish articles.

Added to that is the lack of rigour in much of the analysis. Too many of the commentators, bulls and bears are focused on qualitative matters that they try and present as quantitative facts. For example, the reduced delivery time is taken as an indication that Tesla demand has fallen, but there are many factors involved in this including that Tesla have now got their own fleet of car transporters, that volunteers are prepared to help and meanwhile we are not hearing, as far as I know, that BMW etc sales have recovered. We are now in an ugly equity bear market with rate rises and this could be hurting all the makers along with Tesla. I have very little idea about many of these things and I don't get the impression that the SA writers take any trouble to go beyond some headline facts and craft a story based on them. A good example was the said size of Tesla car sales in China which Tesla have said are well off but with no indication of what they really are.

Further is the near religious belief in all the statements coming from the German auto makers. I suspect that in the by and by we will hear about delays and unexpected problems, battery bottle necks.... A whole host of stuff. German auto have always exaggerated what they can do and in the VW case lied re their diesel in a very significant manner to boost sales.

Added into all of this mix is the robotic driving and how advanced each maker is. Not so long ago we were told that Lidar was needed but the images of the still unreleased electric Porsche do not seem to have any Lidar. If one maker cracks this they will be well ahead for safer, much lower insurance costs etc.

Over the air updates are also another area that is not getting much mention but this is potentially a big thing in changing the service structure which might be as big a problem for legacy as is the transition to electric from fossil.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#187902

Postby BobbyD » December 19th, 2018, 12:58 am

2019 Audi e-tron // The first all-electric Audi


- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCpK_jIhBRk

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Re: Musk endeavours

#187903

Postby BobbyD » December 19th, 2018, 1:14 am

Audi e-tron first drive review: a solid SUV that happens to be electric


https://electrek.co/2018/12/07/audi-e-t ... ve-review/

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#188216

Postby odysseus2000 » December 20th, 2018, 7:57 am

I really enjoyed the Audi e-tron review.

Audi have created a car by taking bits from old models like the dash and cobbling them together into another vehicle, this is not too bad an idea for an entry level car, but this, at circa $90k, is a luxury model and punters want something special for that kind of dosh.

The review said nothing about auto drive capabilities, about collision protection and even the reviewer didn't like the cameras on sticks that replaced door mirrors. If you are going to do this why bother with the stick, just put cameras at the rear, and on the side and have a more streamlined and modern design.

The car was slow by modern standards, has limited range and looks and has the feel of the 20th century, a great car for folk who live in the past and think things never change.

The car is a classic construction of folk told to panic make something fast and get something to market before competitors eat our lunch, but don't make it that good that it will eat our existing hydro-carbon and hybrid power units, we need to keep selling them.

There was no discussion of safety also, nor of over the air updates...

It is a 20th century car that happens to be battery powered and if this is the best that Audi can do they are setting themselves up for even more trouble than they are already in.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#188572

Postby dspp » December 21st, 2018, 9:57 am

Tesla Model 3 Review - 6 Months Later
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKHI8PWCXVc
spoiler - he likes it :)

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189496

Postby Itsallaguess » December 27th, 2018, 3:21 pm

Musk seeks to dismiss 'pedo' defamation claim -

Elon Musk is seeking to dismiss a defamation claim by saying that "over-the-top" paedophilia claims he tweeted should not be taken seriously.

Mr Musk wants the court to throw out the defamation claim because, his lawyers say, his comments were "non-actionable opinion".

The legal team said the Tesla chief had never met Mr Unsworth so his comments had no "factual basis".

Instead, the words were "over-top-insults not driven by first-hand knowledge".

Mr Musk's lawyers argue at length that because the "schoolyard spat" blew up on Twitter, which they say is "infamous for invective and hyperbole", no-one could reasonably believe the comments were truthful.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46693736

So his defence seems to be that because all the hassle happened on Twitter, it doesn't count....

That seems to be an interesting line of defence.....no doubt he'll get off with it too....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189509

Postby BobbyD » December 27th, 2018, 4:23 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Musk seeks to dismiss 'pedo' defamation claim -

Elon Musk is seeking to dismiss a defamation claim by saying that "over-the-top" paedophilia claims he tweeted should not be taken seriously.

Mr Musk wants the court to throw out the defamation claim because, his lawyers say, his comments were "non-actionable opinion".

The legal team said the Tesla chief had never met Mr Unsworth so his comments had no "factual basis".

Instead, the words were "over-top-insults not driven by first-hand knowledge".

Mr Musk's lawyers argue at length that because the "schoolyard spat" blew up on Twitter, which they say is "infamous for invective and hyperbole", no-one could reasonably believe the comments were truthful.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46693736

So his defence seems to be that because all the hassle happened on Twitter, it doesn't count....

That seems to be an interesting line of defence.....no doubt he'll get off with it too....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


That would be the same Twitter account which is officially recognised as a valid way of disseminating price sensitive information about Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189662

Postby Howard » December 28th, 2018, 11:14 am

Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189683

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 11:59 am

Howard wrote:Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard


Does the inside of an ipace actually look like a finished car rather than an engineering prototype with an ipad stuck on to the dashboard with sticky back velcro tape to allow the engineers to monitor performance during development?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189699

Postby PeterGray » December 28th, 2018, 12:49 pm

So his defence seems to be that because all the hassle happened on Twitter, it doesn't count....

That seems to be an interesting line of defence.....no doubt he'll get off with it too....


Sadly he may well, as it's being tried in the US, and it's hard suing there - if the case was in the UK he'd end up in the Tower!

The best bit of all this is that Musk restarted the whole argument, entirely unprovoked, a few weeks later by saying "why haven't you sued me". He really deserves to be hit very, very hard in his pocket, though I fear he won't.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189735

Postby Howard » December 28th, 2018, 3:00 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard


Does the inside of an ipace actually look like a finished car rather than an engineering prototype with an ipad stuck on to the dashboard with sticky back velcro tape to allow the engineers to monitor performance during development?


Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189758

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 4:01 pm

Howard wrote:
Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard


Once you start to exhaust the neo-tech enthusiasts and set off on the long slog towards mass market being recognisable as the product people actually want to buy is quite important... Most people's knowledge of their cars internals extends to the order of the foot pedals, and possibly the engine size. Give them something that looks like a car and they'll be quite happy, give them something which looks 'different' and you'll meet resistance.

The true meaning of Christmas is spending more time amongst those of an older technological age... I'm coming to the conclusion that the ability to strip a classic British Sports Car and rebuild it blindfolded might be a symptom of an allergy to wheel based electric propulsion.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189839

Postby odysseus2000 » December 28th, 2018, 8:39 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:
Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard


Once you start to exhaust the neo-tech enthusiasts and set off on the long slog towards mass market being recognisable as the product people actually want to buy is quite important... Most people's knowledge of their cars internals extends to the order of the foot pedals, and possibly the engine size. Give them something that looks like a car and they'll be quite happy, give them something which looks 'different' and you'll meet resistance.

The true meaning of Christmas is spending more time amongst those of an older technological age... I'm coming to the conclusion that the ability to strip a classic British Sports Car and rebuild it blindfolded might be a symptom of an allergy to wheel based electric propulsion.


The stagecoach maker said everyone wants what they know, a nice carriage and nice horses and then the horseless carriage took their lunch.

IBM said there will only be a need for 5 computer in the world and then they said we will make the hardware where all the profit will be and let some other mug do the software and Bill Gates became a billionaire.

Nokia said folk just want a phone, the iPhone is too complicated and no one wants a camera with their phone and then they along with Blackberry and others found out that they were wrong.

Hoover said our vacuums are great, no one wants a cyclone and Jimmy Dyson became a billionaire.

Vag said Tesla will exhaust the neo-tech buyers and then we will sell them a last century car and...

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189843

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 9:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:IBM said there will only be a need for 5 computer in the world and then they said we will make the hardware where all the profit will be and let some other mug do the software and Bill Gates became a billionaire.


That quote is from 1943, 12 years before Bill Gates was born... and has absolutely nothing to do with the subject at hand.

odysseus2000 wrote:Vag said Tesla will exhaust the neo-tech buyers and then we will sell them a last century car and...


No that was me*, it shouldn't be too difficult to tell the difference, one is a car company the other is a frequent poster here.

* Well it's an inaccurate paraphrasing of something I said at any rate.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190565

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 2:31 pm

Tesla Q4 production numbers
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17368401-te ... duction-us

Q4 production was 86,555 vehicles.

The quarterly tally includes 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with the company's guidance and 15% higher than the Q3 mark. 25,161 Model S and X vehicles were produced, which Tesla says is consistent with the long-term run rate goal of ~100K per year.

Tesla says Q4 deliveries came in at 90,700 vehicles, including 63,150 Model 3 (vs. 63.7 consensus estimate), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.

For the full year, Tesla delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles, consisting of 145,846 Model 3 vehicles and 99,394 Model S and X vehicles.


I had conservatively estimated Q4 sales of 81,085 vs the actual of 90,700. I'm happy to be under by 10% on this one :)

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190594

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 4:11 pm

dspp wrote:Tesla Q4 production numbers
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17368401-te ... duction-us

[i]Q4 production was 86,555 vehicles.

The quarterly tally includes 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with the company's guidance and 15% higher than the Q3 mark. 25,161 Model S and X vehicles were produced, which Tesla says is consistent with the long-term run rate goal of ~100K per year.


Tesla shares tumble 9% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices


- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190605

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 4:33 pm

The company also announced that it’s cutting prices on all of its models by $2,000 to help offset a reduction in federal tax credits for drivers who buy electric vehicles. The $7,500 federal tax credit for Tesla cars was cut in half as of Tuesday.


- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html[/quote]

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190618

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 5:15 pm

Until we have quarterly financials in it is hard to say. If you plug the volume data in for 360k cars/yr and assume like-for-like financial outcome then fair value with a PE of (say) 10 would be about $120, not $300+. However dial in (say) avge annual growth of 50% and a PEG of 0.9 implies undervalued at this share price. On that basis I am comfortable with my current holding.

I don't think this is a share you can do anything else on except to watch the company & industry info as it comes in, very carefully indeed. Quantitatively the volume data is about right. The price reduction doesn't fuss me: all it shows me is that GM% will be under pressure (duh!), and that competitors are going to be sweated to work to an ever lower priced incumbent. Qualitatively nothing that has come out on the quarter has revealed anything other than the expected progress, within what I would term the expected noise & error bars.

The quarterly financial data will be the next thing to scrutinise carefully. I think we get that in a few weeks.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190630

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 5:46 pm

dspp wrote:The price reduction doesn't fuss me: all it shows me is that GM% will be under pressure (duh!), and that competitors are going to be sweated to work to an ever lower priced incumbent.


Competitors have an in built £3750 price advantage for 12 months and after that likely a period of $7500 price advantage in Tesla's key market with newer designs and a better charging standard before reverting back to a $3750 advantage the year after they hit their own subsidy caps. It's hard to argue that is a good thing, particularly if Tesla are forced to compete at the lower end where they have so far failed to produce car one.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190669

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 8:29 pm

To be fair the gm chewy bolt will hit subsidy withdrawal only 3m behind the tesla withdrawal. So that makes things pretty even, except that %wise it will impact the bolt more.

Other auto makers are not really on car 1 in USA. But in any case Congress will likely withdraw it now it has been fully utilised by the two domestic manufacturers.

Regards dspp


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