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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#210554

Postby BobbyD » March 27th, 2019, 7:33 am

redsturgeon wrote:Still no sight of the oft promised $35K Tesla.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27150/tes ... ge-model-3

The fact that not a single Standard Range vehicle has been reported delivered, or even confirmed seen in the wild, suggests that Tesla may not have even built any. Since every trim level other than the base Standard Range is being delivered, including the so-called Standard Range Plus, customers are calling the move a "bait and switch" and wondering if the Tesla ever planned on delivering Standard Range cars this quarter.


The pressure to restrict subsidies and benefits to cheaper electric vehicles are beginning to bear fruit. The Canadian subsidy price cap is too low for Teslas to be included, and one of the policies VW were pushing in their fight with BMW and Daimler was inclusion in BEV subsidies of free charging for cars which cost less than €20,000. If Tesla can't even produce a $35k model 3 this could turn out to be a bit of a problem.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210595

Postby odysseus2000 » March 27th, 2019, 9:51 am

BobbyD wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Still no sight of the oft promised $35K Tesla.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27150/tes ... ge-model-3

The fact that not a single Standard Range vehicle has been reported delivered, or even confirmed seen in the wild, suggests that Tesla may not have even built any. Since every trim level other than the base Standard Range is being delivered, including the so-called Standard Range Plus, customers are calling the move a "bait and switch" and wondering if the Tesla ever planned on delivering Standard Range cars this quarter.


The pressure to restrict subsidies and benefits to cheaper electric vehicles are beginning to bear fruit. The Canadian subsidy price cap is too low for Teslas to be included, and one of the policies VW were pushing in their fight with BMW and Daimler was inclusion in BEV subsidies of free charging for cars which cost less than €20,000. If Tesla can't even produce a $35k model 3 this could turn out to be a bit of a problem.


It is not clear to me if VW can make a Eur20k that anyone in the developed nations will want to buy.

Tata make very low cost cars but few sell here.

Punters in the developed nation want good range, good performance, good safety.

IMHO punters will not buy in worthwhile quantities anything that doesn't have at least all of these features, just in the same way that few buy low cost phones from China or India whereas many buy iPhones etc which are seen as the most advanced on the planet.

Legacy auto always believed that electric cars would be a bottom up phenomenon that would take a very long time to reach mass market and even longer to reach luxury. This was a fundamental mistake, a copy of what the phone makers did when the iPhone arrived. They are still thinking like that when all the evidence shows that it is a top down phenomenon with punters wanting the best that can be made, not some ugly, slow and unsafe go-cart. We live in a great age of prosperity and folk want the best going.

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redsturgeon
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Re: Musk endeavours

#210608

Postby redsturgeon » March 27th, 2019, 10:21 am

odysseus2000 wrote:We live in a great age of prosperity and folk want the best going.

Regards,


Do you include yourself in this? Remind me what you drive.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210724

Postby odysseus2000 » March 27th, 2019, 2:11 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:We live in a great age of prosperity and folk want the best going.

Regards,


Do you include yourself in this? Remind me what you drive.

John


Ha Ha!

No I do not include myself in this great age of wanting the best going, usually I remain focused on having what will do what I want at the lowest possible price.

I drive a 19 year old Mercedes and a 64 year old Grey Fergie tractor, plus three non running Volvo and a non running Rover.

I have a 2013 iPad that I still use most days, an iPhone 4S, a three year old MacBook, plus several other older PC's that I use for various scientific projects.

Anyone studying what I do and how I live and making investment/trading decisions from such research would imho do very badly. However, I do keep up to date with what is selling and people's attitudes to things and to money. Indeed many folk are only too eager to tell me what tech they have and what they like, the best streaming subscription services, best places to eat, best places for vacation etc etc.

My observation is that there is a substantial body of people who feel secure enough to indulge their passions for the best that they see that life has to offer. Most of them do not work particularly hard, have substantial leisure time and don't care much about money, happy to borrow so long as they can cover the costs and they expect to do well out of their property and often have little money left at end of the month. The concept of buying second hand has little place in their life, save for a bit of stuff off eBay but they often don't have the patience to wait. Whether it is good for the country to have lots of folk like this is not something that I care to think about, many of the ones I meet are remarkably challenged in many things, but they have the money and they like to spend it.

There is another substantial body who are not financially secure, who often do jobs that are hard and manual and for whom luxuries are things for someone else to buy. They go to charity shops, those in real need visit food banks and some of them try to better themselves to earn more, but most have decided that this is how life is and that they will get by on what ever they can. Often individuals among these groups are much smarter with money and in their area of expertise are often very skilled, but they are often not rewarded well and are often pressurised by immigrants who will work for less.

These two groups have become orthogonal, neither understanding the other and we have a political system that makes sure the "doing good" folk do well. This "doing good" group and how they spend their money is the main guide I have for potential investments and it is the group that e.g. Apple provides many products for and I believe Tesla are also aiming at sales to this group.

Imho making investment decision from what folk on investment boards think and do, is a route to poor results. Folk here tend to be articulate, look after their money and are less emotional than many of the "doing good" group in their buying. E.g Howard has noted how he is surprised that folk will buy Tesla even with body blemish, potential dangers of auto pilot etc. IMHO one has to observe the folk who have money and like spending it to make investment/trading returns on the growth business and this is why I expect the behaviour that Howard finds surprising.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210798

Postby dspp » March 27th, 2019, 4:51 pm

"The total quarterly unit estimate now stands at 60,828, which would be down 33% from Tesla's Q4 2018 unit sales number of 90,966."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/425117 ... nt-q4-2018

Personally I would take the Q4 2018 number of 90,000 and knock off 10,000 for anything in the delivery chain to China + Europe. So for Q1 2019 about 75-85,000 would be steady-as-she-goes territory, and anything above 85,000 would be good, and anything below 75,000 poor.

I realise that a delivery chain of 10,000 could easily be wrong as there are indications they did the shipping mid-quarter so that all in-channel cars would be delivered and out-of-the-channel by end quarter, but I'm a reasonable person and don't like to be too onerous.

Anything vaguely near breakeven on the P&L is fine by me. I'd rather not see too much kitchen sinking. I just want them to keep things moving along through 2019 until the China factory can start to add volumes in about a year, and somewhere to build the Y is available. In the course of the year we should see how well HW3 operates as that is now shipping and ready to be loaded with whatever SW needs the additional capacity.

I nibbled a few more yesterday, masochist that I am :) .

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210831

Postby BobbyD » March 27th, 2019, 6:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:It is not clear to me if VW can make a Eur20k that anyone in the developed nations will want to buy.

Tata make very low cost cars but few sell here.

Punters in the developed nation want good range, good performance, good safety.

IMHO punters will not buy in worthwhile quantities anything that doesn't have at least all of these features, just in the same way that few buy low cost phones from China or India whereas many buy iPhones etc which are seen as the most advanced on the planet.


You don't seem all that unclear...

The ID will be the ID3, a Golf/Passat equivalent. There is plenty of viable marketspace under the Golf, and imagine if those cheap Chinese phones were made by Samsung and Apple and available in dealerships across the continent, guaranteed to work on all European roads without having to check the capabilities of its com chip, and came with a full European guarantee... Unfortunately the world car market is unlikely to be sustained by teenagers willing to buy the latest BEV on a two year HP via a service plan which makes the payments seem almost affordable.

odysseus2000 wrote:Legacy auto always believed that electric cars would be a bottom up phenomenon that would take a very long time to reach mass market and even longer to reach luxury. This was a fundamental mistake, a copy of what the phone makers did when the iPhone arrived. They are still thinking like that when all the evidence shows that it is a top down phenomenon with punters wanting the best that can be made, not some ugly, slow and unsafe go-cart. We live in a great age of prosperity and folk want the best going.


Such a mistake that Tesla who took the opposite approach have been haemorrhaging money for a decade establishing a market for big car to take over...

I think it might be telling that you are both an Apple and a Tesla fan, you say that the opinions and lifestyles of posters on a bulletin board aren't a good guide to investment, whilst at the same time tirelessly defending the two cults to which you personally subscribe... your arguments and your posts all come back to belief in things you believe in.

We live in a world of great prosperity, and yet not everyone buys a Ferrari and lives in a 14 bedroom mansion, or carries an iphone in their Hermes bag. Most people don't drive 250 miles a day either.

It is strange that somebody who believes so strongly in the electric car, believes so specifically in such a small variant of it, that someone who frequently cites Henry Ford as a fitting revolutionary comparison for Musk and believes that volume will give Tesla added economy and reach doesn't think that big manufacturers will be able to lower the floor on usable electric cars despite the fact that building in volume is what they do, and that they will be sharing parts not only across their electric platforms but across a yearly production of 10 million cars. Technology is the history of things getting cheaper. Companies who build efficiently and profitably to greater scale can take what was unachievable and make it mass market, they can commoditize the exotic, they can survive winners and losers, and they can ring the changes that small visionary startups can't push through.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210841

Postby Howard » March 27th, 2019, 7:12 pm

dspp wrote:"The total quarterly unit estimate now stands at 60,828, which would be down 33% from Tesla's Q4 2018 unit sales number of 90,966."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/425117 ... nt-q4-2018

Personally I would take the Q4 2018 number of 90,000 and knock off 10,000 for anything in the delivery chain to China + Europe. So for Q1 2019 about 75-85,000 would be steady-as-she-goes territory, and anything above 85,000 would be good, and anything below 75,000 poor.

I nibbled a few more yesterday, masochist that I am :) .

regards, dspp


Your previous estimate (on March 8th) looked a bit high to me at the time

dspp wrote:

Any way you cut it, if my numbers are at all correct, then Q1 2019 sales will only be at about 2/3 of the level of Q4 2018 sales. This does not surprise me as I have experienced these logistics & pipeline stuffing issues myself with the consequent cashflow nightmares.

If I am right then Q2 ought to be absolutely stonking by comparison ......

Do you feel lucky ? If I have spare cash around over the next few months I might be tempted if there are lows. Or is it a falling knife ?

regards, dspp


I have to admit that your estimate of "around 2/3 of the level of Q4 2018 sales" ie around 60,000 sales worldwide in Q1 is looking very much in line with most of the analysts guesses after the big push for sales in March.

I'm still sceptical of Tesla's financial position. It's too easy to sell cars by continually dropping prices.

Let's hope your two "nibbles" prove to be good investments too!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210852

Postby odysseus2000 » March 27th, 2019, 8:08 pm

BobbyD
I think it might be telling that you are both an Apple and a Tesla fan, you say that the opinions and lifestyles of posters on a bulletin board aren't a good guide to investment, whilst at the same time tirelessly defending the two cults to which you personally subscribe... your arguments and your posts all come back to belief in things you believe in.


Ha Ha!

I am not a politician, my arguments do indeed come back to things I currently believe in.

Would you expect me to put forward arguments that I don't believe? Politicians do this all the time, but I am just trying to make coin.

But let me be clear, if any business that I like moves into doing things I don't like, then I will change my opinion.

I just want to own stuff that is going up and if anything I own stops going up then I will sell it.

I liked Microsoft when the share price went up, I liked their products, but then they stated doing stuff I didn't like and now I loath MSFT. I have studied Bill Gates, read a lot of what he is currently doing with his and Buffett's money and I don't like much of it and so I have no MSFT holdings. Clearly I would have been better off buying MSFT as their cloud business has done well, but I hate their operating systems and a lot of their business practice and so I am not going to buy their shares.

Similarly if things at Tesla, Apple, ... other holdings stop going in the directions I like then I will sell them and even if I like something I will endlessly trade it, selling into strength, buying weakness etc.

Equities for me are vehicles to make money from. The power of this board is that I get other information that I may miss and other opinions which I will always consider but if they seem lame to me I won't hesitate to put forward an alternative case.

I expect and encourage other posters to do the same and happily I get lots of counter cases which is great.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210889

Postby dspp » March 27th, 2019, 10:39 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The power of this board is that I get other information that I may miss and other opinions which I will always consider but if they seem lame to me I won't hesitate to put forward an alternative case.
I expect and encourage other posters to do the same and happily I get lots of counter cases which is great.


And that is a POV to be respected.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210913

Postby Howard » March 28th, 2019, 12:21 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
But let me be clear, if any business that I like moves into doing things I don't like, then I will change my opinion.

Regards,


Ody

You have eloquently summed up my position on Tesla. I started reading your posts about Musk years ago and had an admiration for him and the ideals of Tesla. However, in the last year or two Musk's behaviour has let his brand down. It is now, in my opinion, tainted. If Musk goes, then possibly the brand image might improve again.

And in your earlier post above, you gave a view about the kind of people who buy expensive cars. The jury is out on whether there is a big enough subset of this group to support the profitable growth of Tesla. There are obviously early adopters who are not bothered by (or enjoy) Musk's antics. And also are so wedded to "cool" cars that they will put up with defects and poor service. Half of them live in Southern California.

Tesla have shown that heavily subsidised Model 3s can be sold at a loss in the USA. However if you look at the sales of their S and X models in Norway, Holland and Spain in Q1 they have been convincingly outsold by Jaguar and Audi EVs. This suggests that their previously profitable models are vulnerable to competition.

The European manufacturers haven't really started to compete with Model 3s yet. Tesla may be making a big mistake by selling sedans at a loss. Instead of building a profitable franchise and a really strong brand with superb sales and service support, they may be wasting their shareholders' funds prodding the Europeans into developing competitive products faster than they otherwise would.

The market doesn't show signs of supporting a loss-making strategy for Tesla, so the Amazon growth model isn't appropriate. And Tesla's quality isn't up to Apple standards. The next few months will be interesting!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210917

Postby odysseus2000 » March 28th, 2019, 12:53 am

Hi Howard,

IMHO, if Musk leaves Tesla anytime soon, Tesla becomes worth a fraction of today's valuation and likely collapses. As I look at Tesla it is not a car company, but a means to commercialise modern technology based on the lithium ion battery, energy storage and generation, remote software upgrades, AI,... IMHO considering Tesla as just a car company is not how it is valued by Wall Street.

Regarding margins, according to Munro who did an independent strip down and reverse engineer of a model 3, Tesla are selling them at 20% margin, rather than a loss. If you can verify that model 3 do sell at a loss then I would change my belief.

Looking at the Jaguar, that it is outsourced and built on a third party line, leaves me feeling that it can not be of remotely similar quality to a Model 3 which has very good safety crash test results.

IMHO focusing on the examples of poor finish etc on model 3 is a mistake as these things will be put right.

The Audi e-tron as far as I know is not available till 2020.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210926

Postby odysseus2000 » March 28th, 2019, 2:06 am

Mea culpa re the Audi e-tron.

It is available now and sells in the UK for £ 70k up, about £4k less than the base model S and about £13k less than the base model X.

Battery supply is apparently a problem:

https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/26/ba ... roduction/

The recent Seeking Alpha article comparing Jaguar, Audi and Tesla sales:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425142 ... app=1#alt1

is limited in what data the author could get making the whole thing not reliable as far as I can tell.

It is another bear article, the guy writing his own book. He may be right, but we should have better data shortly to make some more informed analysis.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#210927

Postby BobbyD » March 28th, 2019, 2:30 am

odysseus2000 wrote: IMHO considering Tesla as just a car company is not how it is valued by Wall Street.


Tesla obviously isn't valued as a car company, the question is 'is Tesla even a car company' because solar panels and static storage don't justify its price either, and are about to hit some serious competition from major transnational companies.

odysseus2000 wrote:Regarding margins, according to Munro who did an independent strip down and reverse engineer of a model 3, Tesla are selling them at 20% margin, rather than a loss. If you can verify that model 3 do sell at a loss then I would change my belief.


Unless there's been an update Munro said that teh car COULD have a 30% margin, IF it was built on a major line. He used Fremont under GM/Toyota as his model when pricing, but Tesla have over twice the staff for a considerably lower output.

The Model 3’s profit potential as assessed by an outsider like Munro is impressive—but it comes with a huge caveat. Tesla hasn’t let Munro visit the company’s car factory in Fremont, California. So Munro created his estimates as if the Model 3 had been built in an average Toyota or GM plant. Tesla has far more employees than Toyota and GM had when they jointly ran the same Fremont factory, and that inefficiency could hinder profits.

Tesla has roughly 10,000 employees in the Fremont plant. At their peak, Toyota and GM had 4,400 workers who made 450,000 cars a year at the same facility, said Ron Harbour, senior partner with consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Tesla, he said, has way too many workers.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -decisions

He also said:

Many of the problems stem from unconventional choices made by Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. “If that car was made anywhere else, and Elon wasn’t part of the manufacturing process, they would make a lot of money,” Munro said in an interview. “They’re just learning all the old mistakes everyone else made years ago.” Munro said he admires Tesla’s technology, so he sent the company a pro bono list of 227 suggested improvements.

Take the steel and aluminum frame at the bottom of the car, a design meant to increase safety. Tesla's battery already sits in the floor and adds stiffness, Munro said, so Tesla made the car heavier and more expensive without getting much benefit.

The aluminum trunk well, meanwhile, is made from multiple pieces held together with rivets and weld points instead of one lighter, cheaper fiberglass trunk preferred by other carmakers. The rear wheel well on the Model 3 also features nine pieces of metal riveted, sealed or welded together. The Chevy Bolt? It has one stamped piece of steel.

“This body is their single biggest problem,” Munro said. “It’s killing them.”

...

Musk has described consultants working for Tesla as “barnacles” that need to be scraped off, but Munro is the rare outsider who did get his attention. After he put out an initial report in April, identifying problems with the design of the Model 3, Musk’s team arranged a call. The manufacturing analyst warned the Tesla chief that his car was heavy, too expensive and needlessly complicated to assemble. According to Munro, Musk replied that he had already fired the engineer responsible for the body’s design.

“Not fast enough,” Munro recalls saying, adding in the interview that Musk, “never should have hired him.”


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -decisions



odysseus2000 wrote:Looking at the Jaguar, that it is outsourced and built on a third party line, leaves me feeling that it can not be of remotely similar quality to a Model 3 which has very good safety crash test results.


The ipace has a 5 star NCAP rating, https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/jaguar/i-pace/34193 just like the S class whichit beats in all 4 individual categories (Adult occupant, Child Occupant, Pedestrian, Safety Assist).

There's footage of the line it is built on in a video I linked to back when we were talking about the cost benefit of building electric vs ICE. I doubt outsourcing to a line which is building both BEV and ICE at the same is the cheapest or most efficient way to do it, but it's a very modern automated line not some dirty old garage stuffed full of outdated salvage from a previous project, or a tent.

odysseus2000 wrote:IMHO focusing on the examples of poor finish etc on model 3 is a mistake as these things will be put right.


They should never have been wrong.

odysseus2000 wrote:The Audi e-tron as far as I know is not available till 2020.


Audi e-tron Jumps to #4 in Germany in January — #CleanTechnica Electric Car Sales Report


- https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16/au ... es-report/

Image

- https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/03 ... ll-Feb.png

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211002

Postby BobbyD » March 28th, 2019, 10:20 am

Some interesting points here from a current Tesla driver with a reservation for a e-tron because even if the car is only as good as his current Tesla the ownership experience is very unlikely to be worse.

5 Reasons I'm Scared of Buying a New Tesla - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVQGqseY4t0&t=570s

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211015

Postby odysseus2000 » March 28th, 2019, 11:01 am

BobbyD wrote:Some interesting points here from a current Tesla driver with a reservation for a e-tron because even if the car is only as good as his current Tesla the ownership experience is very unlikely to be worse.

5 Reasons I'm Scared of Buying a New Tesla - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVQGqseY4t0&t=570s


Ha Ha!

This guy wants the very best, but is paranoid about losing money.

Finally he gets the idea that buying second hand would be the best option, letting someone else take the depreciation etc.

His arguments apply to every new car in an environment where things are changing rapidly.

It has long been the case that ice cars depreciate their value quickly losing 50% in a few years and this is likely to get worse.

Leasing has been created to assuage some of these fears, but second hand still looks the best value to me as a % depreciation of a smaller sum is better than a % depreciation of a bigger sum.

Best of all would be to buy something very low cost where it has depreciated down to near scrap value, the sort of thing I have always done. Of course this is not an option for almost everyone as very few people know how to repair a car, but for someone who can and is prepared to do it the savings are fabulous and the money can used to do other more useful things like buy equities which appreciate, i.e. have negative depreciation.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211040

Postby odysseus2000 » March 28th, 2019, 12:00 pm

German magazine likes the model 3:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ssion=true

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211046

Postby Howard » March 28th, 2019, 12:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Some interesting points here from a current Tesla driver with a reservation for a e-tron because even if the car is only as good as his current Tesla the ownership experience is very unlikely to be worse.

5 Reasons I'm Scared of Buying a New Tesla - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVQGqseY4t0&t=570s


Ha Ha!

This guy wants the very best, but is paranoid about losing money.

It has long been the case that ice cars depreciate their value quickly losing 50% in a few years and this is likely to get worse.

Regards,


Ody

If you look at Autotrader you'll see that Tesla Model S lose 50% of their new price pretty quickly now. I think depreciation on a new Tesla is getting worse in the UK because of their reliability record and the fact that they are losing their scarcity value. Elon Musk's well-publicised recent dramatic price reductions to shift stock are having an effect on values in the US and the UK second hand market.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211077

Postby odysseus2000 » March 28th, 2019, 1:24 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Some interesting points here from a current Tesla driver with a reservation for a e-tron because even if the car is only as good as his current Tesla the ownership experience is very unlikely to be worse.

5 Reasons I'm Scared of Buying a New Tesla - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVQGqseY4t0&t=570s


Ha Ha!

This guy wants the very best, but is paranoid about losing money.

It has long been the case that ice cars depreciate their value quickly losing 50% in a few years and this is likely to get worse.

Regards,


Ody

If you look at Autotrader you'll see that Tesla Model S lose 50% of their new price pretty quickly now. I think depreciation on a new Tesla is getting worse in the UK because of their reliability record and the fact that they are losing their scarcity value. Elon Musk's well-publicised recent dramatic price reductions to shift stock are having an effect on values in the US and the UK second hand market.

regards

Howard


Yes, which is why I expect leasing to become a substantial part of the Tesla first owner market.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#211111

Postby dspp » March 28th, 2019, 4:20 pm

"The Model 3 quickly outsold other big players like the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe, despite being more expensive and only available for a short amount of time. Felipe Munoz, JATO’s global analyst, commented, “The performance of the Model 3 is remarkable, given we normally don’t see this kind of result until four or five months after a new car has hit the roads"

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-top ... es-charts/

European Feb sales results for legacy & EV auto are interesting. It begins to look as if hybrids will be a technology dead end, at least that is the trend I think is emerging in the data (and is an opinion I formed a couple years ago). Also as expected Tesla are doing well and as they say that was just with limited Feb availability. BTW in the stats some of you have been putting up it is noteworthy how quickly the Jaguar EV sales are dropping off after the initial surge.

Then in https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mission ... w-daimler/ you can also see that German auto are dumping the hydrogen fuel cell pathway and going pure electric,

"The auto industry saw something historic happen this past week in Germany. In a rare act of unity, the leaders of the country’s big three Automakers; Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche, and BMW CEO Harald Krüger, all agreed that the future of German auto is the electric car. Over the next decade, each CEO would be pushing their respective companies to shift and embrace the idea of an electrified fleet. ...... Apart from advocating for electromobility, The companies also decided to forego commitments to other forms of alternative propulsion, such as hydrogen fuel cells. In a statement to media publication welt.de, BMW member of the board Klaus Fröhlich mentioned that a breakthrough in hydrogen fuel cell cars is unlikely within the next decade, particularly as charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is growing at a rate where long-distance travel will soon be a non-issue. “The probability of a hydrogen infrastructure developing in parallel is very low,” Fröhlich said."

This is pretty much what VW had already figured out, but now they persuaded Mercedes and BMW to fall in line which makes it easier for gov to support effectively.

Now it remains to be seen how the Japanese auto industry will go. For a variety of reasons they are still on both the hybrid and the fuel cell roadmaps.

regards, dspp

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#211125

Postby Howard » March 28th, 2019, 5:32 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, which is why I expect leasing to become a substantial part of the Tesla first owner market.

Regards,


Ody

We have had a discussion about leasing before. Teslas are ridiculously expensive to lease compared with similar ICE cars. In fact I think the costs have increased since I last looked. Presumably as a result of experience of depreciation and running costs.

Currently a basic Tesla Model S personal lease for 6 + 35 months costs £1,418 per month (with initial rental cost of £8,521). That's a cost of £58,360 for three years rental excluding maintenance costs. That seems pretty "ludicrous" to me. (And, speaking of ludicrous, one of those would cost £95,000 to rent for three years!).

Compare that to leasing a BMW 740Le xDrive Exclusive 4dr Auto plug in hybrid which would cost £34,752 to lease for three years on the same basis as the Teslas above.

Leasing companies in the UK know what they are doing. They are literally leasing 100,000 s of cars and tracking costs all the time.

I'd be pretty sure that the costs will be relatively similar in the USA.

We'll see if Tesla are really successful at leasing. In the short term, I have my doubts.

(All my quotes came from https://leasing.com/)

regards

Howard


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