Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Ha Ha, its much easier and cheaper to have some guys spread mis-information than it is to build an environmentally clean car.

These stories come up like perennials in spring, but unlike the flowers these stories are fake created by assuming the worst of all possible electric generation and use and even then struggle.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Ha Ha, its much easier and cheaper to have some guys spread mis-information than it is to build an environmentally clean car.

These stories come up like perennials in spring, but unlike the flowers these stories are fake created by assuming the worst of all possible electric generation and use and even then struggle.

Regards,

It was written by Germans!

John

[odysseus2000]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Ha Ha, its much easier and cheaper to have some guys spread mis-information than it is to build an environmentally clean car.

These stories come up like perennials in spring, but unlike the flowers these stories are fake created by assuming the worst of all possible electric generation and use and even then struggle.

Regards,

It was written by Germans!

John

Germans [Deleted]. Massive advertising spends, decades worth to convince folk that German stuff is of exceptional quality.

However, if you have taken German cars to bits & looked at how things have been done & how long they last, you soon realise that expensive German tech is all about margins.

The quality of the technological build in German autos is often extremely poor. E.g the local garage owner says he loves the BMW mini as fixing them provides almost enough money to run his entire garage.

My own Mercedes was very poorly built, poor electronics that failed, poor paint that failed, poor injector hold downs that failed.

In my own personal experience of cars, Volvo have been the best, all the other marques have been built to similar low standards & then when Ford bought Volvo, it was all about selling re-badged Fords. The Chinese seem better owners, but I know little about modern cars save for Tesla.

I have just bought a Volvo V70, D5 just a little younger than the Mercedes & it is far better built. I have no idea what recent Volvo are like but talking to folk with mechanical knowledge who have new German cars there is nothing said to cause me to believe they are worth their often premium prices.

Regards,

Moderator Message:
Disparaging generalisation deleted. - Chris

[BobbyD]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

It' obviously can be true, you could if you thought about it produce an almost unlimited amount of CO2 whilst making an EV.

Whether or not it is/will be true is a slightly different matter and will depend on several factors including the manufacturing process and lifespan.

If in doubt buy a VW, the ID3 will be the world's first lifetime totally carbon neutral car if you stick to renewable energy providers.

Moderator Message:
Quote of now deleted text removed. - Chris

[BobbyD]

Also in the guardian

Tesla investigates video of Model S car exploding

The video, widely shared on China’s Twitter-like Weibo, shows the parked EV emit smoke and burst into flames seconds later

Tesla has sent a team to investigate a video on Chinese social media which showed a parked Tesla Model S car exploding, the latest in a string of fire incidents involving the company’s cars.

- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -exploding

The video in question is here: https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/im ... ydbgjf.mp4

[PeterGray]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Yes, clearly it's possible.

"When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich."

It's partly reflecting the German energy mix - still 28% coal, and that will be reflected in the CO2 cost of the electricity used to power it. Others would perhaps do better, others maybe worse. One of the big issues that gets ignored is that mining and processing the lithium etc to make the batteries is highly energy consuming.

Easy to write off as fake news in a Trumpian fashion by those who don't want to hear, but regardless of potential discussions about the energy mix to manufacture and power, it's a very valid point and one that is nearly always ignored in the debate.

There may come a time when the environmental costs of electricity production are greatly reduced, but that time is not now, and it won't be for some time.

[odysseus2000]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Yes, clearly it's possible.

"When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich."

It's partly reflecting the German energy mix - still 28% coal, and that will be reflected in the CO2 cost of the electricity used to power it. Others would perhaps do better, others maybe worse. One of the big issues that gets ignored is that mining and processing the lithium etc to make the batteries is highly energy consuming.

Easy to write off as fake news in a Trumpian fashion by those who don't want to hear, but regardless of potential discussions about the energy mix to manufacture and power, it's a very valid point and one that is nearly always ignored in the debate.

There may come a time when the environmental costs of electricity production are greatly reduced, but that time is not now, and it won't be for some time.

According to Wiki german electricity production

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrici ... in_Germany

is 38% coal, renewables are 40% and rising, nuclear is being phased out and I believe should end around 2022.

The CO2 emission of coal is high and there are potentially other nasty chemicals released as is also the case with diesel.

An electric car powered by coal will not be as clean as e.g. one powered by home solar which is potentially available something like 11 months per year if storage is used. One is also comparing a power station where many things can be done to control poisoness gases and diesel cars where the chance of bad emissions due to poor service etc is higher and this emission is at ground levels in areas where people live.

There is also the argument about wealth transfer and that many of the green energy schemes have been about taking money from many and giving it to a few via taxes and such to pay for the new electrical generation systems. Trump has made this point several times. In the UK it is hard to argue that the benefits and costs of renewables have been done in a way that benefits many, but that has been a political decision. In the UK e.g. much of the renewable spend has benefitted foreign manufactures and could with some political oversight have been steered to more benefiting UK manufactures and workers, but...

Regards,

[Howard]

A lot of this thread has involved discussion about engineering cars and it can be a distraction for investors.

Today there has been a very interesting post about Tesla’s financial engineering. In the short term this may be far more important than any physical or electronic engineering feature of Tesla’s cars.

If I was running a large or small supplier with substantial contracts with Tesla at the moment I would be talking daily to my credit control team. They will be looking for signs of financial stress. With Tesla’s sales of all models shrinking back after their satisfying initial demand for the Model 3 any sensible supplier will be resisting pressure to lower prices or improve supply terms. And cash flow problems for companies like Tesla can suddenly develop.

Forget undeliverable promises about driverless taxi fleets delivering wildly profitable trading in the next year or two. For investors the rest of 2019 is about following the money (or lack of it).

see:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425582 ... evere?dr=1

regards

Howard

[dspp]

Can this be true that the total CO2 emission for the life of an EV will be greater than some diesels!

http://brusselstimes.com/business/techn ... tudy-shows

John

Yes, clearly it's possible.

"When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich."

It's partly reflecting the German energy mix - still 28% coal, and that will be reflected in the CO2 cost of the electricity used to power it. Others would perhaps do better, others maybe worse. One of the big issues that gets ignored is that mining and processing the lithium etc to make the batteries is highly energy consuming.

Easy to write off as fake news in a Trumpian fashion by those who don't want to hear, but regardless of potential discussions about the energy mix to manufacture and power, it's a very valid point and one that is nearly always ignored in the debate.

There may come a time when the environmental costs of electricity production are greatly reduced, but that time is not now, and it won't be for some time.

PG, on a apples-for-apples basis my view is that this factoid is (at best) highly misleading and will soon be superceded, and (at worst) verging on a gross distortion that will also soon be superceded . regards, dspp

[dspp]

https://youtu.be/tlThdr3O5Qo

Tesla FSD teaser video from yesterday

dspp

[odysseus2000]

A lot of this thread has involved discussion about engineering cars and it can be a distraction for investors.

Today there has been a very interesting post about Tesla’s financial engineering. In the short term this may be far more important than any physical or electronic engineering feature of Tesla’s cars.

If I was running a large or small supplier with substantial contracts with Tesla at the moment I would be talking daily to my credit control team. They will be looking for signs of financial stress. With Tesla’s sales of all models shrinking back after their satisfying initial demand for the Model 3 any sensible supplier will be resisting pressure to lower prices or improve supply terms. And cash flow problems for companies like Tesla can suddenly develop.

Forget undeliverable promises about driverless taxi fleets delivering wildly profitable trading in the next year or two. For investors the rest of 2019 is about following the money (or lack of it).

see:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425582 ... evere?dr=1

regards

Howard

I believe you are considering Tesla as though it is a run of the mill service sector business operating in difficult fiscal environments.

Tesla is not, it operates as a growth business & needs to have enough future product line & engineering talk about it all over the web so as to be able to capture investor imaginations & raise money if needed.

Many of the bears do not factor any of this in & believe Tesla should act like a prudent corner shop owner & they freak out over the aggressive accounting & marketing. Anyone who has these kinds of believes & feelings, needs to stay away from growth business as they operate so differently as to make anyone schooled in these beliefs do stupid things & make terrible investment decisions.

As I used to type, Tesla or any growth business should not be a subject of attention for anyone who invests based on accounts & who will sooner or later become so convinced that Tesla is a fraud that they will short it at the worst possible moment & get hurt. Worse is that should Tesla fail & they make a shed load of money they will then assume they know how to short & get murdered elsewhere.

Regards,

[Howard]

A lot of this thread has involved discussion about engineering cars and it can be a distraction for investors.

Today there has been a very interesting post about Tesla’s financial engineering. In the short term this may be far more important than any physical or electronic engineering feature of Tesla’s cars.

If I was running a large or small supplier with substantial contracts with Tesla at the moment I would be talking daily to my credit control team. They will be looking for signs of financial stress. With Tesla’s sales of all models shrinking back after their satisfying initial demand for the Model 3 any sensible supplier will be resisting pressure to lower prices or improve supply terms. And cash flow problems for companies like Tesla can suddenly develop.

Forget undeliverable promises about driverless taxi fleets delivering wildly profitable trading in the next year or two. For investors the rest of 2019 is about following the money (or lack of it).

see:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425582 ... evere?dr=1

regards

Howard

I believe you are considering Tesla as though it is a run of the mill service sector business operating in difficult fiscal environments.

Tesla is not, it operates as a growth business & needs to have enough future product line & engineering talk about it all over the web so as to be able to capture investor imaginations & raise money if needed.

Many of the bears do not factor any of this in & believe Tesla should act like a prudent corner shop owner & they freak out over the aggressive accounting & marketing. Anyone who has these kinds of believes & feelings, needs to stay away from growth business as they operate so differently as to make anyone schooled in these beliefs do stupid things & make terrible investment decisions.

As I used to type, Tesla or any growth business should not be a subject of attention for anyone who invests based on accounts & who will sooner or later become so convinced that Tesla is a fraud that they will short it at the worst possible moment & get hurt. Worse is that should Tesla fail & they make a shed load of money they will then assume they know how to short & get murdered elsewhere.

Regards,

I'm not suggesting shorting Tesla. I have invested in a number of growth businesses over the years, with some successes and some failures! As a long-only investor, experience suggests the time to be very wary of "growth" businesses is when they stop growing, or worse still start shrinking.

We'll see how sales develop in Q2, but there are signs that the demand just isn't there for Tesla to keep growing fast. And in this environment things can change rapidly.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

We'll see how sales develop in Q2, but there are signs that the demand just isn't there for Tesla to keep growing fast.

...or that they could fulfil it if it were...

[dspp]

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachm ... ng.399641/

That's a journalist in the car running FSD for real.

They have the FSD hardware. They have the software. They have the training data (and more coming as the firehose opens wider). It may not be perfect but it is looking interesting. And the OODA loop is running faster than legacy auto, even with MobilEye and Intel desperate to help out the legacy types.

I am not so interested in robotaxis for quite a while (though a bit of the Lyft and Uber valuations is fine), but just keep the cashflow under control this year, get HW3 and the corresponding FSD out in the real world, get Y in build, get Shanghai running, get the S/X refresh done. And don't crash the company this year or next.

Earnings tomorrow .......... should be interesting ........ (gulp)

dspp

[dspp]

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/2 ... f-driving/

"There are only two places where you can get that AI computing horsepower: NVIDIA and Tesla."

All that's needed now is for MobilEye to release a statement,

"There are only two places where you can get that AI computing software: MobilEye and Tesla."

And then Google/Alphabet to release a statement,

"There are only two places where you can get that AI computing training data: Google/Alphabet and Tesla."

I wonder if nvidia realise what they just did ?

- dspp

[BobbyD]

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/upload_2019-4-22_19-35-38-png.399641/

That's a journalist in the car running FSD for real.

You mean like the journos who took APTIV/Lyft taxis at CES two years ago?

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/23/tesla-self-driving/

"There are only two places where you can get that AI computing horsepower: NVIDIA and Tesla."

...I wonder if nvidia realise what they just did ?

- dspp

You mean getting you to give them some free advertising?

[odysseus2000]

Having watched the Tesla Full Self Driving presentation linked by DSPP above several things seem clear to me:

Tesla, as supported by the Nvida Press release, have hired well and gone from nowhere to world leaders in robotic driving.

No other manufacturer can compete as they don't have the the feed back from millions of miles driven and the current 100k lane changes per day being done by the Tesla system.

Lidar and geo-fenced robotic driving is an evolutionary dead end and will soon be discarded.

Germany legacy auto is in terrible trouble. They have no answer to robotic driving, they can't even make a car that out performs the model S of 5 years ago and the electric cars they are turning out are 3rd rate Frankenstein models and they can't get these out because they can't source batteries. One has to believe that all the legacy motor announcements of coming new battery cars are all about the media and nothing about the engineering as they can't make what they have now and seem unlikely to make the sophisticated new models they are talking about in the time scales they advertise.

If the robotics cars that Tesla say they are making now work, then LYFT and Uber are doomed along with much legacy auto.

If robotic cars work the cash flow to Tesla makes the current valuation look like a very serious under-pricing.

The endless media stuff about Tesla not being able to sell cars looks like the teething troubles of introducing something new and will correct quickly. If not Tesla will easily be able to raise capital which would likely annoy folk if its dilutive to equity owners, but is also a safety net.

Competitors better catch Tesla now, if they leave it a few more years they will be about as competitive as horse breeders in 1910.

Regards,

[dspp]

Occasionally ody I fully agree with you

Mind you surviving 2019 could be tricksy

Dspp

[BobbyD]

If...

If...

World leaders on the evidence of a promo video?

I'm having great fun imagining your response if any other company had released that video.

[redsturgeon]

This could be a serious issue back down the line at the Gigafactory.

https://www.businessinsider.com/panason ... ?r=US&IR=T

John