Musk endeavours

[PeterGray]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

[odysseus2000]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

If you want to lose in business there are two good ways:

1 Be a copy cat to some successful business, remember Myspace?

2 Become complacent and don't respond to a competitor who emeges with better pricing, better tech etc.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

If you want to lose in business there are two good ways:

There are millions of good ways to lose money in business, you set your sights too low.

[odysseus2000]

According to these guys:

https://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-mod ... ys-2018-12

Tesla Model 3 build time is 30 minutes.

Firstly, man talks up own stock. Secondly doesn't say build time is or could be 30 minutes. Otherwise great source.

Waymo and APTIV have some permits for restricted use no driver cars. This is not the same as saying that Waymo have self driving that is marketable, it just says they have tests underway.

Waymo have autonomous cars. APTIV have autonomous cars. Tesla don't have autonomous cars.

If Tesla had licenses to run autonomous cars they'd have to phone Waymo or APTIV to see if they could borrow some wheels for the weekend.

Personally I see no difficulty with putting in no wire charging points all over the place that can charge a car inductively. I just do not see the argument about charging being meaningful.

Regards,

So you don't see Tesla's extensive charging network as being a strong plus which rivals will struggle to overcome?

One minute you are telling me VW can make a car in 16 hours. I provide a link saying Tesla can do it in 90 minutes:

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesl ... pse-video/

Link to the Business insider article within.

Now you argue 30 mins is possible.

Waymo and APTIV do not have general automatous cars as far as I know. They have license to test under restricted conditions.

Yes, of course Tesla extensive charging network is a strong plus as it exists now and it provides fuel for folk buying their top down models who will likely be long distance drivers. As electric vehicles move down the punter profile I imagine that wireless charging points will become common for the folk whose travel is to work, shopping, children pickup etc. They are different markets, the latter hardly served at all.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

Silent Witnesses.

Can anybody actually name the first internet search engine, without googling?

[odysseus2000]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

Silent Witnesses.

Can anybody actually name the first internet search engine, without googling?

Altavista? or was it Mosaic?

[BobbyD]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

Silent Witnesses.

Can anybody actually name the first internet search engine, without googling?

Altavista? or was it Mosaic?

Altavista was 5 years later, very late to the party.

http://archie.icm.edu.pl/archie-adv_eng.html - although it wasn't at the time hosted at a Polish university.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... ch_engines

First site to sell something by web auction?

[PeterGray]

I used to use Alta Vista - it was great, shame it just disappeared. There may well have been things before that though.

[PeterGray]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

If you want to lose in business there are two good ways:

1 Be a copy cat to some successful business, remember Myspace?

2 Become complacent and don't respond to a competitor who emeges with better pricing, better tech etc.

Regards,

I'm not clear how those 2 answer my point that there have been loads of first movers in loads of businesses that have disappeared without trace. Your list of examples is just a list of those that we remember, because they have been successful, or at least partly so. The same point about first mover disadvantage could have been made about all those missing ones too. The fact that a few survive and do well does not disprove the point.

[odysseus2000]

Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad

And what about all the hundreds (thousands?) of others no one even remembers?

If you want to lose in business there are two good ways:

1 Be a copy cat to some successful business, remember Myspace?

2 Become complacent and don't respond to a competitor who emeges with better pricing, better tech etc.

Regards,

I'm not clear how those 2 answer my point that there have been loads of first movers in loads of businesses that have disappeared without trace. Your list of examples is just a list of those that we remember, because they have been successful, or at least partly so. The same point about first mover disadvantage could have been made about all those missing ones too. The fact that a few survive and do well does not disprove the point.

Yes, but its about many things and most of all about success and traction.

All the ones I mentioned plus Tesla started against powerful incumbents in various forms and all gained recognition by various tactics such that they became household names. All of them traded on very very high p/e rations and all of them were expected to get destroyed by incumbents. E.g. Amaxzon would be killed by Walmart or one of the book chains, Ebay would be killed by Sothebys ...The ones that failed rarely achieved high levels of penetration, although myspace did but failed when it was bought by a well known and not always liked media mogul.

Me too business have to be very well executed and offer something much better to do well.

Complacency is often death, read Intel's Andy Gove's tome: Only the paranoid service.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

According to these guys:

https://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-mod ... ys-2018-12

Tesla Model 3 build time is 30 minutes.

Firstly, man talks up own stock. Secondly doesn't say build time is or could be 30 minutes. Otherwise great source.

Waymo and APTIV have some permits for restricted use no driver cars. This is not the same as saying that Waymo have self driving that is marketable, it just says they have tests underway.

Waymo have autonomous cars. APTIV have autonomous cars. Tesla don't have autonomous cars.

If Tesla had licenses to run autonomous cars they'd have to phone Waymo or APTIV to see if they could borrow some wheels for the weekend.

Personally I see no difficulty with putting in no wire charging points all over the place that can charge a car inductively. I just do not see the argument about charging being meaningful.

Regards,

So you don't see Tesla's extensive charging network as being a strong plus which rivals will struggle to overcome?

One minute you are telling me VW can make a car in 16 hours. I provide a link saying Tesla can do it in 90 minutes:

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesl ... pse-video/

Link to the Business insider article within.

Now you argue 30 mins is possible.

Waymo and APTIV do not have general automatous cars as far as I know. They have license to test under restricted conditions.

Yes, of course Tesla extensive charging network is a strong plus as it exists now and it provides fuel for folk buying their top down models who will likely be long distance drivers. As electric vehicles move down the punter profile I imagine that wireless charging points will become common for the folk whose travel is to work, shopping, children pickup etc. They are different markets, the latter hardly served at all.

Regards,

Erm, it was you that made the thirty minute claim not me, whilst linking to an article which didn't make that claim for support...

Again your article is by an investor talking up his investment, and is his opinion of what might be possible, and it isn't what you claimed it was...

So fast charging is less important because more charging will be done at home, but Teslas charging network is still very important... either/or, not both/and.

Again, you are confusing technology with licenses.

Yes, but its about many things and most of all about success and traction.

All the ones I mentioned plus Tesla started against powerful incumbents in various forms and all gained recognition by various tactics such that they became household names. All of them traded on very very high p/e rations and all of them were expected to get destroyed by incumbents. E.g. Amaxzon would be killed by Walmart or one of the book chains, Ebay would be killed by Sothebys ...The ones that failed rarely achieved high levels of penetration, although myspace did but failed when it was bought by a well known and not always liked media mogul.

So are you claiming first mover advantage or a record of new companies destroying powerful incumbents?

You have severe survivorship bias.

* edited to highlight original claim

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Erm, it was you that made the thirty minute claim not me, whilst linking to an article which didn't make that claim for support...

Yes, thank you for the correction, I made a mistake.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Erm, it was you that made the thirty minute claim not me, whilst linking to an article which didn't make that claim for support...

Yes, thank you for the correction, I made a mistake.

Regards,

Easily done.

[Howard]

Now the dust is settling on Tesla’s quarterly report it is worth reflecting on some of the information which was shared and hinted at.
It seems to me that some key themes are:

Tesla is no longer projecting itself as a super-fast growing enterprise.

It is concentrating more on profitability

Realizing that service and repairs are important to maintain a reasonable brand image

Sales in North America are beginning to slow

Reliability is more important than sharing dreams with customers

Much less talk about reservations

Acceptance that their prices are too high to achieve original sales forecasts

More sensible behaviour (SEC influence)

Lower capex means some new model plans are just dreams

These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Now the dust is settling on Tesla’s quarterly report it is worth reflecting on some of the information which was shared and hinted at.
It seems to me that some key themes are:

Tesla is no longer projecting itself as a super-fast growing enterprise.

It is concentrating more on profitability

Realizing that service and repairs are important to maintain a reasonable brand image

Sales in North America are beginning to slow

Reliability is more important than sharing dreams with customers

Much less talk about reservations

Acceptance that their prices are too high to achieve original sales forecasts

More sensible behaviour (SEC influence)

Lower capex means some new model plans are just dreams

These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

regards

Howard

My take is diametrically the opposite.

This quarter with the new ability to replay debt from cash flow & the start of the Chinese factory & shipping of model 3 to Europe & China, continued development of robotic drive looks to me the springboard from which future hyper growth will develop.

Quality & customer satisfaction will be taken care, sales will dramatically increase & like the model of Carneige's steel everything will be created from cash flow, each development funding the next. The SEC will no longer bother with Tesla, they know how important the business is to the US & with out the need to raise capital via share sales the whole business moves beyond the reach of Wall Street.

All of these things say to me that Tesla is anything but an auto company, but is an infant, only now becoming strong enough to change the world in revolutions that will far exceed all the titans of old.

Electric propulsion will eclipse what Ford did.

Storage & solar panels will eclipse what Rockerfella did.

Robotics will change the world in ways that far exceed what Apple & Microsoft did & will exceed all the other aspects of the business by huge amounts & be the technology that extends human life beyond earth to fill the habitable world's of our solar system.

The path now is far easier & far simpler than where they have reached which was the hardest part of the story that is Tesla. The biggest danger to Tesla is not imho the competition which looks increasingly lame to me, but that something happens to Elon Musk.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

That sounds like it would be bloody, even allowing for Tesla B and C coming on stream in the next few years. For an unsophisticated snapshot I just had a quick flick through Reuters and VW, Ford and Toyota are currently trading on 5.7-7.7 times earnings.

[odysseus2000]

Model 3 tops list of bringing most joy to owners:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-mo ... rings-joy/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla gives patents away:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

Regards,

[Howard]

Now the dust is settling on Tesla’s quarterly report it is worth reflecting on some of the information which was shared and hinted at.
It seems to me that some key themes are:

Tesla is no longer projecting itself as a super-fast growing enterprise.


Sales in North America are beginning to slow



These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

regards

Howard

My take is diametrically the opposite.

This quarter with the new ability to replay debt from cash flow & the start of the Chinese factory & shipping of model 3 to Europe & China, continued development of robotic drive looks to me the springboard from which future hyper growth will develop.


Regards,

Ody

US sales of the model 3 are rumoured to have dropped 74% from December to January (25,500 to 6,500)

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html

I was expecting that the figure would be low given the EV incentive reducing. But, if this is true and an indicator that reservations are drying up, the drop is dramatic and will have an effect on cash flow.

regards

Howard

Howard

[BobbyD]

Tesla gives patents away:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

Regards,

Gave...

All Our Patent Are Belong To You
Elon Musk, CEO 12 June 2014

I remember them doing it.

Shortly after Toyota with whom they'd been working but who had decided to pursue fuel cell instead of BEV gave away a load of fuel cell patents. One of the costs of trying to create a market.

More than 5,600 Toyota fuel-cell patents are up for grabs, royalty-free

- https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyo ... l-patents/