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Musk endeavours

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tjh290633
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267246

Postby tjh290633 » November 26th, 2019, 9:37 am

PeterGray wrote:He's not "lying through his teeth"! He is certainly using assumptions based on current energy production, which are shifting, and he ignores the effects of NO2 and other street level pollutants. But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be - even though developments mean that they are and will be an improvement in terms of CO2 and other pollutants. the cost is likely to be at around 50% at best for a long time - or ever. A big improvement, but no perfect solution.

It is worth pointing out that CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a normal and esential component of the atmosphere. As to whether or not the content of CO2 contributes to global warming, that is another matter, but it is not a pollutant. Were it not there, life would not exist.

TJH

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267263

Postby BobbyD » November 26th, 2019, 10:23 am

PeterGray wrote:But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be...


They could be. Some will be. How many might be up for debate.

Image

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -that-5523

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267269

Postby odysseus2000 » November 26th, 2019, 10:53 am

PeterGray wrote:He's not "lying through his teeth"! He is certainly using assumptions based on current energy production, which are shifting, and he ignores the effects of NO2 and other street level pollutants. But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be - even though developments mean that they are and will be an improvement in terms of CO2 and other pollutants. the cost is likely to be at around 50% at best for a long time - or ever. A big improvement, but no perfect solution.


Fascinating comment which I come across a lot.

Most of the people who make them seemed to have failed to appreciate the revolution in energy generation that is occurring all about us.

When I ask: "Why is a carbon neutral car a fantasy?"

I get all manner of answers which includes, you need fossil fuels to smelt metals. Wrong.

There is insufficient renewable power if every bit was harvested to ever replace fossil fuel. Wrong by a huge factor.

Plastics need fossil hydrocarbon to make. Yes, but they can then be recycled endlessly using renewable power.

So which part of cars being carbon neutral have I Tesla, Volkswagen,.... et al got wrong?

Regards,

Ps yes co2 is needed for life, it's just whether there is too much that can threaten the biosphere due to heating the atmosphere by trapping more sunlight energy

If you study lobbyists as I have been doing regarding Apple & the right to repair debates, you will quickly come to the conclusion that many lobbyists are at best wholefully ignorant or in more simple terms liars. E.g. One lobbyist was up before a US state board arguing against the right to repair saying that by fixing a Mac book the repairer made it into a PC. Another said that repairing a power supply compromised the security of a Mac. Even folk who claim to be industry experts are either badly educated or liars. E.g. An Apple repair centre made several factually false statements about Apple products, all of which would cause a more expensive repair than was needed. Apple say they lose money on repairs, is this a lie or are their support staff so badly educated that simple jobs are not repaired simply but by discarding what was good & replacing with new?It is impossible to know, but either a lot of the lobbyists are ignorant or liars is the only conclusion I have reached after studying several current issues including renewable power & the right to repair.

dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267271

Postby dspp » November 26th, 2019, 11:01 am

tjh290633 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:He's not "lying through his teeth"! He is certainly using assumptions based on current energy production, which are shifting, and he ignores the effects of NO2 and other street level pollutants. But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be - even though developments mean that they are and will be an improvement in terms of CO2 and other pollutants. the cost is likely to be at around 50% at best for a long time - or ever. A big improvement, but no perfect solution.

It is worth pointing out that CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a normal and esential component of the atmosphere. As to whether or not the content of CO2 contributes to global warming, that is another matter, but it is not a pollutant. Were it not there, life would not exist.

TJH


That's a bit like saying that [expletive deleted] is a natural compound. Yes, well, but it won't restore you to life .....

dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#267277

Postby BobbyD » November 26th, 2019, 11:13 am

dspp wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:It is worth pointing out that CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a normal and esential component of the atmosphere. As to whether or not the content of CO2 contributes to global warming, that is another matter, but it is not a pollutant. Were it not there, life would not exist.

TJH


That's a bit like saying that [expletive deleted] is a natural compound. Yes, well, but it won't restore you to life .....

dspp


That's rather going to depend on the definition of pollutant, most people would I think take it to refer to the introduction of a new element to a system, rather than a change in the balance of existing elements.

The OED definition is next to useless.

redsturgeon
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267282

Postby redsturgeon » November 26th, 2019, 11:22 am

Rather like weeds just being plants in an inconvenient place in inconvenient numbers.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#267308

Postby BobbyD » November 26th, 2019, 12:34 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Rather like weeds just being plants in an inconvenient place in inconvenient numbers.

John

Weeds vs invasive species.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#267352

Postby odysseus2000 » November 26th, 2019, 2:14 pm

BobbyD wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Rather like weeds just being plants in an inconvenient place in inconvenient numbers.

John

Weeds vs invasive species.


I have endless battles trying to convince folk who should no better that Himalayan Balsam is a blessing, not an invasive species and that with out it we would lose many of our pollinators.

Folk, some in authority, tell me that Balsam is taking over and suppressing native species. I ask for evidence, get none.

Recently a neighbour has convinced the council to cut and then weed kill several hundred yards of land rich in balsam and other pollinator friendly plant. It was as he described just weed although he has noticed there are less butterflies. Looking at the 3 folk they had doing this and the ongoing work I estimate that this will consume all I have paid in poll tax and all I make from honey sales and then some and all to make the world worse.

Still they organise Balsam bashing and I say fine, what are you going to plant to replace the lost nectar and pollen and often they say it will be mowed grass and strimmed grass. I point out that mowed grass has neither nectar or pollen and they looked surprised. The stupidity of many folk who should know better is outstanding while the cutting companies have only the concept that if they destroy all the plants they get paid and if this means the end of native pollinators, birds etc it is how the UK should be.

Next on my endless battle lists is flail mowing of hedges. Defra have made farm grants dependent on flail mowing of hedges in autumn when they are full of berries to feed the birds. I walk by a flail mowed hedge and all the berries that should be the natural larder are wasted on the floor.

Last week I discovered that it is now policy to smash all Mallard eggs. The chief rational is that Mallards are dangerous to cyclists. Don't believe me, then look at last weeks Country Life in the Good for, Bad for column.

imho we have a class of people who fear for their jobs and spend time mandating stuff that they can show as work done and justify their salary. We have very similar stuff from the EEC when they would not permit the sale of wonky carrots, a decision that funded a neighbours pony carrot business as he would buy the wonky carrots and sell them for ponies, goats etc. This has now been changed and one can now buy wonky carrots again, presumably showing that the many years of the ban was stupid but again it makes work for the folk in charge of this.

The more I come into contact with folk who make decisions the more I realise that many of them are over educated idiots or are getting kick backs for implementing policies friendly to others. The number of these in the legacy v renewable energy media and legislation is large.

Regards,

PeterGray
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267369

Postby PeterGray » November 26th, 2019, 2:43 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:He's not "lying through his teeth"! He is certainly using assumptions based on current energy production, which are shifting, and he ignores the effects of NO2 and other street level pollutants. But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be - even though developments mean that they are and will be an improvement in terms of CO2 and other pollutants. the cost is likely to be at around 50% at best for a long time - or ever. A big improvement, but no perfect solution.

It is worth pointing out that CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a normal and esential component of the atmosphere. As to whether or not the content of CO2 contributes to global warming, that is another matter, but it is not a pollutant. Were it not there, life would not exist.

TJH


I agree the obvious "pollutants" from HC vehicles are the NO2, particulates etc. But if, as most people do, you accept that human generated, or released, CO2 is a significant cause of global warming, which is likely to have very negative effects on many peoples' lives in the foreseable future, and is already to some extent, then yes it is most certainly legitimate to call it a pollutant.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#267373

Postby PeterGray » November 26th, 2019, 2:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:He's not "lying through his teeth"! He is certainly using assumptions based on current energy production, which are shifting, and he ignores the effects of NO2 and other street level pollutants. But he does challenge the widely held fantasy that electric cars, present and future, are carbon neutral. They are not, they never will be - even though developments mean that they are and will be an improvement in terms of CO2 and other pollutants. the cost is likely to be at around 50% at best for a long time - or ever. A big improvement, but no perfect solution.


Fascinating comment which I come across a lot.

Most of the people who make them seemed to have failed to appreciate the revolution in energy generation that is occurring all about us.

When I ask: "Why is a carbon neutral car a fantasy?"

I get all manner of answers which includes, you need fossil fuels to smelt metals. Wrong.

There is insufficient renewable power if every bit was harvested to ever replace fossil fuel. Wrong by a huge factor.

Plastics need fossil hydrocarbon to make. Yes, but they can then be recycled endlessly using renewable power.

So which part of cars being carbon neutral have I Tesla, Volkswagen,.... et al got wrong?

Regards,

Ps yes co2 is needed for life, it's just whether there is too much that can threaten the biosphere due to heating the atmosphere by trapping more sunlight energy

If you study lobbyists as I have been doing regarding Apple & the right to repair debates, you will quickly come to the conclusion that many lobbyists are at best wholefully ignorant or in more simple terms liars. E.g. One lobbyist was up before a US state board arguing against the right to repair saying that by fixing a Mac book the repairer made it into a PC. Another said that repairing a power supply compromised the security of a Mac. Even folk who claim to be industry experts are either badly educated or liars. E.g. An Apple repair centre made several factually false statements about Apple products, all of which would cause a more expensive repair than was needed. Apple say they lose money on repairs, is this a lie or are their support staff so badly educated that simple jobs are not repaired simply but by discarding what was good & replacing with new?It is impossible to know, but either a lot of the lobbyists are ignorant or liars is the only conclusion I have reached after studying several current issues including renewable power & the right to repair.


Ody,

I accept that over time CO2, and other emissions from vehicular, and other traffic can, and will be reduced significantly. However, I suspect that my guess of about 50% "for some time" is about correct, if you consider the likely balance of power production in the global economies for the next several years, and you don't give to much weight to "carbon offset" schemes.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267610

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2019, 11:14 am

Cyber truck pre-orders now 250,000:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/119 ... 95136?s=20

Regards,

dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#267621

Postby dspp » November 27th, 2019, 11:49 am

Responding to a few alerts I have exercised my Mod-powers and deleted a few posts that were getting into the definitional debate of what is and is not a pollutant. However interesting that might be it clearly is not the main thrust of this long-running thread, and was making some nervous. Some of the posts I have let stand, but could we please avoid that issue here - start a new thread if you want to have that debate please. I am as guilty as anyone else by the way. Regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#267803

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2019, 8:47 pm

This is an interesting and informative video by fully charged about many themes on electric cars etc and a good rant about folk buying big legacy SUV:

https://youtu.be/ysQ3VWpuwI0

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268000

Postby odysseus2000 » November 28th, 2019, 5:41 pm

This is an update on Truckla, model 3 made into pickup (strong language) which is kind of interesting in a folks sort of way, but very short on tech info:

https://youtu.be/FCKjmfsgBBY

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268005

Postby Howard » November 28th, 2019, 5:59 pm

We've had a discussion about the future of car dealers vs the direct internet sales approach over the last year.

Despite the subdued market for second hand cars I've seen good results from two dealers reporting recently. Cambria and Motorpoint. If you bought shares in the latter company (which specialises in selling two year old cars) around six months ago in May when we were discussing the Tesla share price, you'd now be up more than 30%. And Cambria have been successful in selling luxury models alongside more modest cars.

So there are indications that this channel is holding up quite well and their sales volumes are impressive. I'm guessing that the depreciation figures for new ICE cars are slipping a bit. But by comparison, look at the large number of second hand Tesla Model S which are slow to sell on Autotrader. It's possible to pick up a fairly low mileage S for around £30k (or possibly cheaper if one drives a hard bargain). And there are some nearly new Model 3s which haven't sold in the last two or three months.

We'll see the UK sales figures for new cars for November in the next few days. It's possible that sales of BEVs are flattening out. The market really needs the new more modestly priced VW models for electric cars to achieve some real volume sales. :)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268110

Postby odysseus2000 » November 29th, 2019, 10:53 am

Scotty Kilmer gives his take on electric, hybrid etc, an interesting overview of the things which he feels are positive & negative about the current tech from a mechanics perspective:

https://youtu.be/YajsuTDtxp8

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268166

Postby Howard » November 29th, 2019, 5:18 pm

https://www.ft.com/content/e2e7ddaa-129 ... 2f231cfeae

This article may be behind a paywall but it is reporting on Daimler's plans to reduce workforce by at least 10,000 over the next two years. Apparently this follows an announcement that Audi are making similar reductions.

Daimler stated that the jobs cut will affect management and administration. They currently employ around 130,000. No mention was made of any cuts to production line staff.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268194

Postby BobbyD » November 29th, 2019, 8:08 pm

Howard wrote:https://www.ft.com/content/e2e7ddaa-129a-11ea-a225-db2f231cfeae

This article may be behind a paywall but it is reporting on Daimler's plans to reduce workforce by at least 10,000 over the next two years. Apparently this follows an announcement that Audi are making similar reductions.

Daimler stated that the jobs cut will affect management and administration. They currently employ around 130,000. No mention was made of any cuts to production line staff.

regards

Howard


Link to the google search for those whose cookies show them to be within their free allowance of articles:

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ACY ... CAs&uact=5

Audi are cutting 9,500 and creating 2000 by 2025, although it should be noted this is happening at a time when VW are moving some of areas of development from brands to group.

Audi is to cut up to 9,500 jobs at its German factories by 2025 in order to save €6bn (£5.1bn) to invest in electric cars and digital technology.

The luxury carmaker, which is part of Volkswagen, said the job cuts were part of its mission to “become lean and fit for the future”. The company, which is based in Ingolstadt, Bavaria, said it would also hire 2,000 workers in “new expert positions in areas such as electric mobility and digitalisation”.

...The job cuts, which equate to more than one in 10 of Audi’s total staff, come less than a fortnight after rival German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz said it intended to cut more than 1,000 jobs by the end of 2022 as it struggles to meet new tougher emissions targets.

...“The works council [“shop-floor” organisation representing workers] and the company’s management have agreed to cut up to 9,500 jobs until 2025. This will take place along the demographic curve – in particular through employee turnover and a new, attractive early-retirement programme.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... investment

Horses mouth: https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/pre ... ment-12373

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268202

Postby BobbyD » November 29th, 2019, 9:07 pm

A couple of points that jumped out at me from Howard's FT article

Daimler said it would cut more than 10,000 jobs in the next two years

...In November, Daimler warned that it would post significantly lower profits for at least two years, citing the dual threats of Brexit and tariffs, as well as the struggle to produce enough battery-powered cars to meet impending EU carbon emissions targets.

If Daimler fails to achieve a fleet-wide measure of around 100g CO2 per km by 2021, it could face upwards of €1bn in fines from Brussels.

...Chief executive Ola Kallenius betrayed a frustration with the “inertia” of personnel costs, citing the difficulties of navigating strict labour laws. “It's the one [spending area] that requires the hardest work, especially in Germany,” he said.

...The company said it would seek to make further savings by offering its current workforce the option of reducing weekly working hours.


It may be tempting to see all German manufacturers in the same light, but to my eyes the areas identified as problems for Merc are worse for companies which produce on average larger cars, which didn't move preemptively to secure 4 or 5 years worth of battery contracts in the last few years, can't move aggressively in to the affordable electric sector, and being less of an international concern employ a more German workforce.

31/12/18:

Mercedes, 58.5% of workforce in Germany - https://www.daimler.com/documents/inves ... t-2018.pdf

VW, 44% of workforce based in Germany - https://annualreport2018.volkswagenag.c ... oyees.html

Now VW's 44% is a lot more people than Merc's 58.5%, as VW employ a lot more people, but then they need a lot more people...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268223

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 12:03 am

I continue to believe that cuts in German auto employment will lead to some very ugly situations for the auto makers & that there will be similar troubles in other car making countries like Italy & France. Japanese motors saw this coming & cut their UK factories.

It will be interesting to see if German Labour turns on Tesla Berlin & causes trouble for them.

China & Korea battery makers ought to do well as the scramble for batteries becomes a panic.

Imho the potential for existing legacy auto to make serious errors here is very large.

I still expect BMW to fail and/or be taken over or get government emergency money as their balance sheet looks too weak to me.

Tesla with its growing battery capability ought to do well, but I am nervous about how German labour will react to Tesla Berlin.

Regards,


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