Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

Wouldn't you agree that battery degradation is probably as much affected by the way the car is used as by its battery capability.

So that massive network of battery degraders Tesla fans are so proud of...

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
Unfortunately the market for the products of these competing companies isn't limited to the "anyone with a scientific or engineering back ground (sic)" though, is it?

The consumer market encompasses a wide spectrum of consumers, many of whom will look at (and no doubt be mislead too) by figures such as range, cost per mile etc. in normal (UK) conditions.

If Tesla, or others, were looking to grow the number of cars they sell (not supply) it might be in their interest to invest in ways to achieve higher rankings in surveys such as the WhatCar one though. Perhaps as an alternative to claiming to deliver the best range in the niche potential market of the coldest place in Norway.

I agree and Tesla do, its folk like those at "What Car" who are putting out all manner of nonsense as was always the case for auto magazines which are in general aimed at selling stuff and doing so in what look to be simple quantified ways but which mostly are and always were mis-information sources.

Most punters are not interested in anything other than price, driving it and having something that works, Their eyes glaze over if you move the conversation to the science and engineering. That is how society is: A few make and invent stuff, most consume it and in out prosperous times like to regularly change what they have.

Personally this kind of behaviour doesn't interest me. i don't want to buy something that is quickly obsolete and needs me to spend again, but I long ago realised that thinking like that is not going to make me any investment returns. So I now think like most of the people I meet, watch what they like and do and invest/trade accordingly.

This kind of dynamic is why I believe that one can't put Tesla in the "Another car company" criteria. They are much more of a tech company with many prosperous enough to lease for 3 years and then lease something else, happy to pay the lease costs and have a new car every 3 years. This to me is financial madness, but in some applications like for example iPhones it is the business model with next years phone being so much more capable than this years and with this years being unrepairable. Modern iPhones for example are waterproof because the whole things is glued together. If something goes inside one has to have a new phone. Yes, there are videos of folk getting the glued phones apart and replacing batteries, but its far from trivial and the cost is prohibitive and so one has a disposable product. Assuming Tesla do integrate batteries into vehicle structure, one will have a disposable car if the batteries give out and this makes leasing more attractive.

I don't want to be seen as arguing that this is all good as in terms of personal finances it is not, but then again replacing ICE cars with low emission BEV is a positive for all of us and for the the environment too and no matter what I think that looks to be the way things are going.

It is not just tech that is doing this. A neighbour took out a "with profits" investment many years ago and discovered that when he retired the investment was worth about what he had paid in during his lifetime and that the managers had enjoyed taking good fees for making such a disaster. He appealed to the ombudsman who noted that if there were no profits, there were no profits to distribute. As in all things it is Caveat Emptor.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Mike4 Edit to add: But I see you use the term LIFEPO. Is this the same as lithium iron phosphate or another chemistry used in BEVs which I've not yet encountered

I meant same, i was just being lazy.

The main thing with all of this stuff is to check what one has at the cell level. Mostly the plastic jackets have all the needed information printed on them.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
Unfortunately the market for the products of these competing companies isn't limited to the "anyone with a scientific or engineering back ground (sic)" though, is it?

The consumer market encompasses a wide spectrum of consumers, many of whom will look at (and no doubt be mislead too) by figures such as range, cost per mile etc. in normal (UK) conditions.

If Tesla, or others, were looking to grow the number of cars they sell (not supply) it might be in their interest to invest in ways to achieve higher rankings in surveys such as the WhatCar one though. Perhaps as an alternative to claiming to deliver the best range in the niche potential market of the coldest place in Norway.

I agree and Tesla do

....

And then a load of words to say you don't (and they don't).

Is there any point in engaging with you?

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
And then a load of words to say you don't (and they don't).

Is there any point in engaging with you?

I am trying to give you dynamics of the science, engineering and commercialness of these tech business all of which are complicated and require a lot of investment in time to gain some understanding and mastery of. If you follow what Tesla say, read their annual reports, study the science, study the engineering and do whole lot of stuff like this, then you will instantly recognise that what "What Car" are saying is nonsense and not worth reading and that often applies to Which.

My general advice to anyone is to stick to what you know or learn about what you want to be interested in. There are no short cuts to obtaining knowledge.

Regards,

[Howard]

Germany KBA watchdog also looking into Tesla touchscreen failures.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN29S0PY?

[odysseus2000]

It is also worth pointing out that there is a need to move from obsolescence to long term durability for the potential robotics-taxi business.

Tesla are suggesting that their coming battery packs if charged and discharged according to their directions are capable of 1 million miles. This is needed for a fleet of robotic-taxis and is good for the less wealthy folk who want a BEV, but can not afford a new one. For the prosperous folk to have their 3 year leasing model, there must be something worthwhile at the end of three years that has value and which someone who is on a tighter budget can afford and then get good utility out of.

In the by and by this model may fade if robotic-taxi become practical as then the need to own a car may fade away too if a reliable robotic taxi can be called quickly and at low cost what would be the point of owning a car for many?

All of this is a rapidly moving target. Things are changing all the time with the science, tech and political decisions and imho for many investors this is far too difficult a business to keep on top of, but it is also one of the fastest growing which acts as motivation to encourage study and also brings in many folk who will not put in the effort, both at the investor level and at the manufacturing level.

We are now at the stage in BEV like that in ICE when their were 100's of manufactures in the first few decades of the last century and most of them ceased to trade.

Caveat Emptor!

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Germany KBA watchdog also looking into Tesla touchscreen failures.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN29S0PY?

Reducing the cost for the fix to $2000 was crass, and not likely to do them any favours in the eyes of regulators.

It's not even like they sold that many S or X prior to 2019.

Another example of Tesla's inability to engage constructively with the outside world, where all their customers live.

[dealtn]

dealtn
And then a load of words to say you don't (and they don't).

Is there any point in engaging with you?

I am trying to give you dynamics of the science, engineering and commercialness of these tech business all of which are complicated and require a lot of investment in time to gain some understanding and mastery of. If you follow what Tesla say, read their annual reports, study the science, study the engineering and do whole lot of stuff like this, then you will instantly recognise that what "What Car" are saying is nonsense and not worth reading and that often applies to Which.

My general advice to anyone is to stick to what you know or learn about what you want to be interested in. There are no short cuts to obtaining knowledge.

Regards,

Yes, true, but this particular part of the discussion had nothing to do with knowledge, or what you or I would glean from WhatCar, or other reports, was it?

This was about the "mass market", and not the niche market(s), that Tesla and others will need to address if they are to succeed in transforming themselves into mass market providers (especially so if their business model appears reliant on substantial growth from that "investment" perspective that seems to be relevant to you).

Transforming from niche to mass, requires understanding what is important to that mass, which may be different to the niche already being served.

Perhaps you (or Tesla) have an alternative route to this mass market, and the sales growth in the markets? Are they to successively add niche after niche, in a reverse salami type way? First we target anyone living in the coldest part of Norway, then the coldest area in Sweden, then a micro market in China, ...

I think we both know that is nonsense.

[Howard]

So, could I try and sum up our conversation about Tesla range claims.

We appear to have established some key facts:

- Whilst Tesla Model 3 variants have wonderful battery technology, their ranges are comparable with a lot of competitors and less than Hyundai models in UK conditions.

- The degradation of BEV batteries may depend much more on how the BEV is driven and charged than the capability of its batteries.

- Sandy Munroe was disappointed at the range of his Tesla in windy conditions and he backed up other surveys which show that the range can drop well below 200 miles.

- According to Ody a 2018 Tesla Model 3 is obsolete already.

- Battery technology is developing so fast that it is difficult to keep up with the type of battery being installed in new BEVs. As manufacturers are buying from different battery manufacturers it’s impossible to be sure of exactly which kind of battery is in a particular car. Tesla is a good example of a manufacturer installing different makes of batteries in the model 3.

Could I add a personal comment. This thread occasionally is a bit like discussing wine with “experts”!

The other day, I drank some wine described by the experts as: “combining blackberry and red forest fruit flavours with a hint of honeysuckle. Well-integrated French oak supports elements of mulberry and rosemary on the palate providing a long lingering finish”.

To me it was just an everyday bottle of wine from Waitrose! It’s £8.99 at the moment if you are interested in trying it.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
Yes, true, but this particular part of the discussion had nothing to do with knowledge, or what you or I would glean from WhatCar, or other reports, was it?

This was about the "mass market", and not the niche market(s), that Tesla and others will need to address if they are to succeed in transforming themselves into mass market providers (especially so if their business model appears reliant on substantial growth from that "investment" perspective that seems to be relevant to you).

Transforming from niche to mass, requires understanding what is important to that mass, which may be different to the niche already being served.

Perhaps you (or Tesla) have an alternative route to this mass market, and the sales growth in the markets? Are they to successively add niche after niche, in a reverse salami type way? First we target anyone living in the coldest part of Norway, then the coldest area in Sweden, then a micro market in China, ...

I think we both know that is nonsense.

Tesla have gone from essentially zero car sales a decade ago to selling nearly 500k last year and have some very good numbers for the Y from California this month.

This is growth, this is why the share price is a lot higher and Tesla is valued highly by the stock market.

The evidence is clear. Tesla are becoming a mass market purveyor of BEV.

Regards,

[johnhemming]

It is entirely possible for Tesla to be both a brilliant company and for the share price to be overvalued. I don't myself like buying momentum stocks in any size because I want a chair to sit on when the music stops.

I think Musk is quite a creative individual. However, I am not looking to invest.

[odysseus2000]

Howard
- Whilst Tesla Model 3 variants have wonderful battery technology, their ranges are comparable with a lot of competitors and less than Hyundai models in UK conditions.

- The degradation of BEV batteries may depend much more on how the BEV is driven and charged than the capability of its batteries.

- Sandy Munroe was disappointed at the range of his Tesla in windy conditions and he backed up other surveys which show that the range can drop well below 200 miles.

No, no, no

Kia are getting their range figures by hurting their batteries and this needs to be corrected when comparing ranges. Their tactics are the same as the NISSAN Leaf and that didn't end well and they have now changed their way of operating. Tesla cars protect the battery, which protect the investment in the car, i.e. higher re-sale values and robotics-taxi applications. Winter driving uses more fuel in any kind of car, yes even in diesel.

Battery degradation is controlled by the user and what the manufacturer lets the user do

Sandy is selling Sandy. He knows full well that cars facing headwinds etc use more fuel, but he is building his brand.

As I keep saying BEV are complicated things, far more complicated than wine and without scientific and engineering knowledge any investor is at a serious disadvantage in knowing what is going on.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

It is entirely possible for Tesla to be both a brilliant company and for the share price to be overvalued. I don't myself like buying momentum stocks in any size because I want a chair to sit on when the music stops.

I think Musk is quite a creative individual. However, I am not looking to invest.

Yes, and its the art of the growth investor/trader to figure out when brilliant company and valuation get out of sense.

Not investing/trading this kind of situation when its not something that you are comfortable with is the best thing to do.

Regards,

[dspp]

then a micro market in China, ...

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/ch ... -2020.html

Tesla finished 2020 in the #1 model spot in China. Some micro market !

regards, dspp

[dspp]

It is entirely possible for Tesla to be both a brilliant company and for the share price to be overvalued. I don't myself like buying momentum stocks in any size because I want a chair to sit on when the music stops.

I think Musk is quite a creative individual. However, I am not looking to invest.

I'm not trying to persuade anyone to invest. I have noted previously that growing at 50% yoy it would take Tesla five years or so to grow into its current valuation as an auto maker which is the central part of the valuation thesis. That is a nosebleed valuation, up in the stratosphere !

However, the logical corollary to the publicly stated Tesla game plan, is that Tesla might simultaneously achieve mass market sales and continue to be the market leader in:
- generalised unbounded mobility autonomy;
- global BEV charging network;
- energy storage at global scale for various use-cases (short & long term intermittency, grid support, arbitrage, etc);
- delivery of mobile infotainment etc;
- global ride-hailing network;
- global automotive insurance offering;
- global solar PV sales & installation, potentially also with home battery & home heating;

Achieving any one of those would be significant in investment terms. However it is fairly logical that if Tesla achieves the central mission (5m cars in half a decade) then it will almost certainly have to achieve (or be able to achieve) many of those other items. In which case Tesla is potentially undervalued at present, and that is why I personally continue to hold (and because I'm too scared to touch !).

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Howard
- Whilst Tesla Model 3 variants have wonderful battery technology, their ranges are comparable with a lot of competitors and less than Hyundai models in UK conditions.

- The degradation of BEV batteries may depend much more on how the BEV is driven and charged than the capability of its batteries.

- Sandy Munroe was disappointed at the range of his Tesla in windy conditions and he backed up other surveys which show that the range can drop well below 200 miles.

No, no, no

Kia are getting their range figures by hurting their batteries and this needs to be corrected when comparing ranges. Their tactics are the same as the NISSAN Leaf and that didn't end well and they have now changed their way of operating. Tesla cars protect the battery, which protect the investment in the car, i.e. higher re-sale values and robotics-taxi applications. Winter driving uses more fuel in any kind of car, yes even in diesel.

Battery degradation is controlled by the user and what the manufacturer lets the user do

Sandy is selling Sandy. He knows full well that cars facing headwinds etc use more fuel, but he is building his brand.

As I keep saying BEV are complicated things, far more complicated than wine and without scientific and engineering knowledge any investor is at a serious disadvantage in knowing what is going on.

Regards,

Ody

One of the features of this forum is that there have been a lot of claims about Tesla cars that have turned out to be completely wrong. Robotaxis is an example but there are many more.

Might I suggest that your arguments are strong on unprovable assertions but weak on sources.

Please quote some sources to show conclusively that a lot of Hyundai batteries are degrading as rapidly as you suggest.

I have linked above to a site for fleet operators which indicates that 2018 Tesla Model 3 batteries degrade faster than Hyundai batteries. And a report that suggests fairly rapid degradation for a number of 2020 Tesla Model 3s.

Your case would be stronger if you could show some hard evidence for your claims that "Kia are getting their range figures by hurting their batteries".

If you are right, there will be a lot of strong evidence easily available.

And declaring an interest, I'm hoping to test drive a couple of Hyundai BEVs after lockdown to decide on a replacement second car, so this is not a theoretical question.

Please do quote some believable sources for your claims.

regards

Howard

[dealtn]

then a micro market in China, ...

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/ch ... -2020.html

Tesla finished 2020 in the #1 model spot in China. Some micro market !

regards, dspp

Not exactly what I was saying, but even so 22 million vehicles sold in China last year from the first "google" I clicked on. So the 224,000 mentioned in that blog doesn't scream out "non-niche" if I am honest.

I have no idea, I assume that is growing significantly, and to be No.1, if true, is a creditable achievement, but the amateur analyst in me sees still a lot of work to do, rather than a job well done.

[johnhemming]

and that is why I personally continue to hold (and because I'm too scared to touch !).

I have a tendency to part sell things when they go up. Then I can carry forward a lower risk and crystallise some gain.

I to, however, take your point on these things. However, there is always a question of how well protected these are with a moat.

[odysseus2000]

howard
Your case would be stronger if you could show some hard evidence for your claims that "Kia are getting their range figures by hurting their batteries".

If you are right, there will be a lot of strong evidence easily available.

Will there? Who will publish this and it will take time to become obvious as Nissan Leaf owners found.

This is another area where the bad way Kia are treating its batteries is obvious if you know some physic's and think like a physicist.

Take two cars of similar mass, similar known stored battery energy and measure what is the consumption of power per mile.

In the case of Kia, v Tesla model 3 (2021) the Kia uses 50 to 100% more energy than the 3.

Yet with similar sized batteries the Kia is claimed to have much better range.

You could argue that Kia have a new battery source but as far as I can tell they are buying from the same suppliers as everyone else.

There have been extensive measurements of operating conditions v battery life expectancy for all batteries and the only way Kia can get the mileage results is to over charge and over discharge their batteries and this leads to reduced longevity.

Regards,