Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

Ody

US sales of the model 3 are rumoured to have dropped 74% from December to January (25,500 to 6,500)

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html

I was expecting that the figure would be low given the EV incentive reducing. But, if this is true and an indicator that reservations are drying up, the drop is dramatic and will have an effect on cash flow.

regards

Howard

Howard

Already cutting the entry price in China

The California-based firm said in a statement that Chinese customers will be allowed to place orders for a long range, rear-wheel-drive Model 3 variant whose price will start at 433,000 yuan ($64,300.56).

Previously, the starting price for a Model 3 in China was 499,000 yuan, for an all-wheel-drive long range version. Tesla said earlier this year that it plans to start delivering Model 3 cars to customers in China in March.

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1PQ40F

Not a very Tesla thing to do if demand is outstripping supply.

[odysseus2000]

Now the dust is settling on Tesla’s quarterly report it is worth reflecting on some of the information which was shared and hinted at.
It seems to me that some key themes are:

Tesla is no longer projecting itself as a super-fast growing enterprise.


Sales in North America are beginning to slow



These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

regards

Howard

My take is diametrically the opposite.

This quarter with the new ability to replay debt from cash flow & the start of the Chinese factory & shipping of model 3 to Europe & China, continued development of robotic drive looks to me the springboard from which future hyper growth will develop.


Regards,

Ody

US sales of the model 3 are rumoured to have dropped 74% from December to January (25,500 to 6,500)

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html

I was expecting that the figure would be low given the EV incentive reducing. But, if this is true and an indicator that reservations are drying up, the drop is dramatic and will have an effect on cash flow.

regards

Howard

Howard

If you believe this is the whole story then Tesla is a great short.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla gives patents away:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

Regards,

Gave...

All Our Patent Are Belong To You
Elon Musk, CEO 12 June 2014

I remember them doing it.

Shortly after Toyota with whom they'd been working but who had decided to pursue fuel cell instead of BEV gave away a load of fuel cell patents. One of the costs of trying to create a market.

More than 5,600 Toyota fuel-cell patents are up for grabs, royalty-free

- https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyo ... l-patents/

This time they took the framed patents off the wall.

Regards,

[Howard]

As the Tesla situation is developing fast, my comments less than a week ago need updating.


Tesla is no longer projecting itself as a super-fast growing enterprise. It is concentrating more on profitability - but if sales levels drop by only 20% it will have a major over-capacity and profitability problem.

Realizing that service and repairs are important to maintain a reasonable brand image - looking at reviews of Tesla, they are virtually all by incredibly wealthy Americans - mainly from Southern California and they seem to be relaxed about issues which would not amuse European consumers.

Sales in North America are beginning to slow - maybe most of the early adopters have purchased, it gets tougher from now on. The rarity value of a Tesla will be damaged if the company starts to discount prices and second hand values fall.

Reliability is more important than sharing dreams with customers - some dreams are being tested literally in the next three months

Much less talk about reservations - if $35k models becomes available reservations may be important again - but lower cost models will reduce profitability.

Acceptance that their prices are too high to achieve original sales forecasts - and the prices in Europe do look far too high to gain tens of thousands of sales.

Lower capex means some new model plans are just dreams - but new models are critical for sales success outside (Southern) California.

These are generally good things but will they lead investors to re-rate Tesla stock as they realise it is just another Auto manufacturer in a very competitive world market?

The first shipments to Europe are arriving now and going through Pre-Delivery inspections in the port. Then the sales operation takes over. This is all extra expense and will come off the bottom line.

If total sales drop by 20% or more over the first quarter, is the stock is going to be substantially re-rated?

So, Ody yes, if you are a trader, maybe today is the time to consider a short?

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

This time they took the framed patents off the wall.

...but the press release you linked to about them removing frsamed patents from the wall is dated 12 June 2014. That's last time.

[odysseus2000]

This time they took the framed patents off the wall.

...but the press release you linked to about them removing frsamed patents from the wall is dated 12 June 2014. That's last time.

Ha ha, a good CEO recycles good news.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

VW to use some Tesla battery packs at charging stations:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3429064-v ... g-stations

Regards

[BobbyD]

VW to use some Tesla battery packs at charging stations:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3429064-v ... g-stations

Regards

- https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswa ... SL1N1ZW1O5

Pity the numbers are so vague.

All you can glean for sure from the announcement is that VW are buying atleast 101 Tesla battery packs...

[odysseus2000]

VW to use some Tesla battery packs at charging stations:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3429064-v ... g-stations

Regards

- https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswa ... SL1N1ZW1O5

Pity the numbers are so vague.

All you can glean for sure from the announcement is that VW are buying at least 101 Tesla battery packs...

Yes, we would need to know how many cars each station is designed to charge. Part of the calculus will be whether the battery packs will be coupled with solar panels which is a common arrangement. The more panels the faster the batteries can be recharged and excess solar generated power sold off to the grid, but assuming these are the standard 10 kWh battery packs that go with the Tesla power wall, and assuming that each car is say 50 kWh, to be able to fully recharge 10 cars simultaneously will need 50 battery packs. In practice one wouldn't likely do that but I imagine that 50 is the kind of ball park for a charging station.

Not as dangerous as a petrol station to terrorist attack, but nevertheless a lot of energy stored in one place that could be vulnerable to hand gun bullets.

Assuming I am about right, this does look to be a great market for Tesla, one Musk said would grow at 2x the rate of auto.

If I have the arithmetic wrong, please correct.

Regards,

[dspp]

VW to use some Tesla battery packs at charging stations:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3429064-v ... g-stations

Regards

- https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswa ... SL1N1ZW1O5

Pity the numbers are so vague.

All you can glean for sure from the announcement is that VW are buying at least 101 Tesla battery packs...

Yes, we would need to know how many cars each station is designed to charge. Part of the calculus will be whether the battery packs will be coupled with solar panels which is a common arrangement. The more panels the faster the batteries can be recharged and excess solar generated power sold off to the grid, but assuming these are the standard 10 kWh battery packs that go with the Tesla power wall, and assuming that each car is say 50 kWh, to be able to fully recharge 10 cars simultaneously will need 50 battery packs. In practice one wouldn't likely do that but I imagine that 50 is the kind of ball park for a charging station.

Not as dangerous as a petrol station to terrorist attack, but nevertheless a lot of energy stored in one place that could be vulnerable to hand gun bullets.

Assuming I am about right, this does look to be a great market for Tesla, one Musk said would grow at 2x the rate of auto.

If I have the arithmetic wrong, please correct.

Regards,

You have the engineering arithmetic wrong. I'll let you think about the real numbers.
- dspp

[BobbyD]

Assuming I am about right, this does look to be a great market for Tesla, one Musk said would grow at 2x the rate of auto.

If I have the arithmetic wrong, please correct.

Regards,

You have the engineering arithmetic wrong. I'll let you think about the real numbers.
- dspp[/quote]

It's worth checking out the original press release, reporting may not have been completely transparent.

- https://elam-cms-assets.s3.amazonaws.co ... 4.2019.pdf

Reston, VA (February 4, 2019) – Electrify America today announced its plan to install Tesla
Powerpack battery systems at more than 100 of their electric vehicle charging stations
nationwide over the course of 2019.
The battery systems will be deployed to mitigate higher power demand charges and manage
operating costs by avoiding or reducing demand and energy charges during peak charging
periods.
Each site will consist of a 210 kW battery system with roughly 350 kWh of capacity. With a
modular design, more capacity can be added over time.

I have my doubts as to whether VW will be a long term customer given that there will be an optimal size for the charging network and VW are themselves going in to cell/pack/charger production in Europe.



The spreading of really high charge rate networks might not be good for Tesla either.

From the same source:

The Electrify America charging system features the first-ever certified cooled-cable 350 kW
chargers in the United States. A 350 kW charger can theoretically charge a vehicle at speeds up
to 20 miles per minute – seven times faster than today’s most commonly used 50 kW fast
chargers. As Electrify America continues to build out its network with this technology, it will
continually work to develop and deploy innovative solutions to bring down the operating cost of
fast charging, providing sustainability to the grid and reliability to drivers.

[odysseus2000]

Ok what have I got wrong?

If you have 10 near exhausted 50kWh battery cars to charge to full, then you would need 500 kWh of capacity, neglecting losses etc and assuming no grid or solar charging.

If each battery unit is 10 kWh, then that requires 50 units.

Sorry, still can’t see where I am wrong, but welcome help.

If the press release (BobbyD) is right, then they say each site is 200 kW, with a capacity of 350 kWh.

This doesn’t make sense to me unless the 200kW is the charge rate from the grid such that as the cars drink the electric, replacement grid electric goes in so that the overall capacity of the system is 350 kWh?

Re the fast charging (BobbyD) I am still confused about dendrite formation. Most of the experts suggest that if you do very fast charging of lithium Ion batteries, you produce dendrites that piece the plastic and lead to shorts trouble.

Have these dendrite issues been solved?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Not sure how reliable this article is:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423788 ... wins?app=1

But if true it suggests that German legacy are now realising there is a problem and are having to do basic research whilst Tesla are flogging batteries.

Regards,

[Howard]

Norway January sales statistics look interesting. I'm ignoring the comments but looking at some real facts here.

The Electric Golf appears to be selling well. It will be interesting to see how the Golf numbers stack up against Series 3 over the next few months. Norway may be a good indicator of how bigger European markets might develop.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423787 ... rcent?dr=1

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

To zoom out a little

Europe EV Sales: Renault Zoe Wins In December, Nissan LEAF Takes 2018 Title

..........December YTD
Nissan Leaf 3604 40609
Renault Zoe 5382 38538
BMW i3 2536 24432
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 3023 23921
VW e-Golf 2075 21252
Tesla Model S 2931 16682
Volvo XC60 T8 PHEV 1327 13426
BMW 530e 2022 13383
Tesla Model X 2351 12694
BMW 225xe Active Tourer 1485 12665
VW Passat GTE 152 11373
Mini Countryman PHEV 1062 10345
Kia Niro PHEV 757 9951
Hyundai Ioniq Electric 835 9605
VW Golf GTE 122 9010
Smart Fortwo ED 925 8688
BMW 330e 74 7327
Mercedes GLC350e 52 7125
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV 728 6719
Kia Soul EV 515 6641
Jaguar i-Pace 2983 6319
Others 5623 75642

- https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/03/eu ... 018-title/

[odysseus2000]

Kind of interesting that the model S & X are doing so well in Europe given that they are expensive luxury cars.

The model 3 being currently shipped is cheaper and may therefore grab some of the less wealthy buyers and imho will do well in the company car segment.

I see these figures as being very encouraging for Tesla.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Kind of interesting that the model S & X are doing so well in Europe given that they are expensive luxury cars.

The model 3 being currently shipped is cheaper and may therefore grab some of the less wealthy buyers and imho will do well in the company car segment.

I see these figures as being very encouraging for Tesla.

Regards,

Lacking competition.

If Howard's post a few up is correct and Audi have been stockpiling 200 e-trons a day since December then its initial sales figures will be interesting.

This electric car is the future of motoring

- https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/ca ... ectric-car

The family SUV, made electric. The Audi e-tron may be unimaginative, it may not stand out from the crowd, but that’s the point. This is a key part of the electric car tipping point, aimed at drawing in those who want an electric car, but don’t want it to weird them out. This applies to the vast majority of buyers out there, and the e-tron, although £15,000 more than an equivalent diesel SUV, is likely to find many eager homes.

- https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/audi/e-tron/verdict

Verdict
4.5
Audi's first electric car is a hit. The e-tron is quieter, more comfortable and better to drive than Tesla’s Model X. Its 249-mile electric range may not change the game, but it excels as a high-quality family SUV.

- https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/audi/e-tr ... tro-review

Verdict
Audi is entering the electric age with the e-Tron, which costs from £71,490 (before the Government’s £3500 subsidy for which the e-SUV qualifies). As you’d expect, the e-Tron’s engineering is polished, what you might not expect is how well it handles given its vast size and weight. The e-Tron is also comfortable and spacious, and will hit the spot for wealthy Audi fans keen to embrace zero emissions. Progress through technology? The future, it appears, is very much Vorsprung Durch Elektrisch.

- https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-revie ... /etron-ev/

Audi names its new car 'turd': German firm's e-tron title is very close to French word for 'excrement'

- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ement.html

[odysseus2000]

Yes, it will be interesting to see how the e-tron sales figures for what imho is a Frankenstein 20th century car with batteries and very limited self driving capability are.

I imagine it will sell better than I think and then have its second hand value plummet.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

You are all way behind the curve...

Here is the future of electric cars

https://qz.com/1541380/the-cheapest-chi ... nd-europe/

John

[BobbyD]

Sorry post above should say since September...