Musk endeavours

[dealtn]

They may seem familiar, but no matter how often I repeat them, most everyone thinks I am tálking nonsense & that is why disruptive tech changes the world & makes fortunes for folk who get on board.

Regards,

Sometimes.

And sometimes the inventors, early adopters etc. go bankrupt and are no more than footnotes in history.

[BobbyD]

Cautionary Tales Ep 6 – How Britain Invented, Then Ignored, Blitzkrieg

- http://timharford.com/2019/12/cautionar ... litzkrieg/

Tim Harford on disruptive innovation and architectural innovation. Some of the themes might seem familiar to Musk Endeavours residents...

They may seem familiar, but no matter how often I repeat them, most everyone thinks I am tálking nonsense & that is why disruptive tech changes the world & makes fortunes for folk who get on board.

Regards,

You can talk nonsense about agreed concepts. I find Harford to be more in agreement with those of us who disagree with you, although your interpretation may differ.

[odysseus2000]

They may seem familiar, but no matter how often I repeat them, most everyone thinks I am tálking nonsense & that is why disruptive tech changes the world & makes fortunes for folk who get on board.

Regards,

Sometimes.

And sometimes the inventors, early adopters etc. go bankrupt and are no more than footnotes in history.

Almost all early adopters, inventors go bankrupt or get only a tiny fraction of the inventions worth.

The art of investing in secular growth is to find the exceptions, usually a few per generation (20 years) & then make a pile of dosh out of them.

Tesla ticks all my boxes that have been refined over a long time of studying secular growth, current & historic, as a business with a potential to make its investors a lot of money.

Most investors/traders will not touch this kind of opportunity because of many factors but mostly because they are too lazy to put in the serious work necessary to determine if this is likely to be a big payer.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla model 3 driven at high speed in Germany:

https://youtu.be/WG8y2KBH0xY

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Porsche BEV has poor range:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3526390-p ... email_link

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting article on Tesla solar roofs including new Californian mandate that all new homes from 2020 must have solar roofs.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/15/te ... exclusive/

Regards,

[Howard]

In their Q1 results update published in April, Tesla said “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”.

This forecast was seen to be optimistic and now analysts are expecting sales between 360,000 and 400,000 for the year.

Volumes for the Model 3 in the USA have dropped in October and November. There is some evidence that they have sold only around 20,000 Model 3s in these two months. Cleantechnica believe that sales were only 10,500 in November and possibly less than that in October. They claim that Model 3 sales in the US are 127,836 year to date.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/15/te ... ar-in-usa/

Export volumes are being boosted by sales in the Netherlands with sales of over 9,000 in Q4 to date but Norway volumes are severely down and other European markets (including the UK) are showing modest figures.

If media reports are correct, Tesla hasn’t sold any Chinese-made cars yet. Their launch is now delayed until January at the earliest.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Elect ... n-the-dust

We may read soon about the sales push from Freemont for the end of the quarter. This is usually leaked to Elektrek with a week or two to go before the quarter end. Will it be enough to bring the year’s total to 360,000 or more?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla giga factory car park beginning to fill with model 3:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafac ... ers-video/

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Chinese deliveries of Chinese made model 3, expected to be 3 or 4 digit by end of year:

https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made- ... y-notices/

Regards,

[Howard]

Chinese deliveries of Chinese made model 3, expected to be 3 or 4 digit by end of year:

https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made- ... y-notices/

Regards,

Is that by end 2020?

Howard

[BobbyD]

:D

Chinese deliveries of Chinese made model 3, expected to be 3 or 4 digit by end of year:

https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made- ... y-notices/

Regards,

Is that by end 2020?

Howard

That's atleast 7.7 a day!

[BobbyD]

Trump Helped Nix Electric Car Tax Measure Sought by Tesla, GM

The expansion of a tax credit for electric vehicles isn’t likely to appear in a broad deal being negotiated by House and Senate leaders, and backers of the popular tax break say President Donald Trump is to blame.

“There has been extreme resistance from the president,” said Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat who has championed the $7,500 tax credit for consumers who purchase an electric car. She said Monday it was unlikely to be expanded.

“I don’t know why the White House would want to stop jobs and the future of the auto industry,” she said.

The credit is a legislative priority for automakers such as Tesla Inc. and General Motors Co.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-tesla-gm

Now that would have been a nice xmas present for Tesla!

It has to be said the US system is a mess whose incentives are badly aligned with it's desired outcomes.

[BobbyD]

U.S. agency probes 12th Tesla crash tied to possible Autopilot use

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. auto safety agency said Friday it will investigate a 12th Tesla crash that may be tied to the vehicle’s advanced Autopilot driver assistance system after a Tesla Model 3 rear-ended a parked police car in Connecticut on Saturday.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration special crash investigation program will investigate the Dec. 7 crash of a 2018 Tesla Model 3 on Interstate 95 in Norwalk, Connecticut, the agency confirmed.

- https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-tesla ... KKBN1YH2BF

[BobbyD]

Tesla is nerfing Autopilot for Model S/X in Europe to comply with regulations

Tesla is warning Model S and Model X customers in Europe about a new software update that is reducing the capacity of its Autopilot features in order to comply with regulations.

...Tesla has to adapt its driver-assist system to different regulations in different markets.

It results in a much more limited Autopilot in Europe compared to what Tesla is making available in its vehicles in North America.

The automaker already reduced the capability of the Model 3 in Europe, but now it started warning Model S and Model X owners that they are also going to be affected after a new update.

We are talking about fairly significant changes including a requirement to apply pressure to the steering wheel every 15 seconds when using Autopilot.

- https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/17/tesla ... gulations/

[odysseus2000]

Tesla hopes to cut price of Chinese model 3 by 20% next year:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3526981-p ... email_link

Regards,

[Howard]

Tesla hopes to cut price of Chinese model 3 by 20% next year:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3526981-p ... email_link

Regards,

If true, this will be another bad Marketing decision by Tesla. It will destroy the second-hand value of Model 3 by the end of next year and really irritate the initial purchasers who see that they have been conned. Even rumours like this indicate that their pricing policy is suspect. They need to decide to either price the car cheaply with the certainty of lower costs for locally made parts, or go for lower volume premium prices and reduce the loss on each car made as the part costs go down.

Bloomberg aren't doing Tesla any favours by suggesting this strategy. It is likely to put off early purchases. I suppose it could be helpful if Tesla are hugely production constrained and have major problems producing cars, but surely that isn't the case?

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Tesla is nerfing Autopilot for Model S/X in Europe to comply with regulations

Tesla is warning Model S and Model X customers in Europe about a new software update that is reducing the capacity of its Autopilot features in order to comply with regulations.

...Tesla has to adapt its driver-assist system to different regulations in different markets.

It results in a much more limited Autopilot in Europe compared to what Tesla is making available in its vehicles in North America.

The automaker already reduced the capability of the Model 3 in Europe, but now it started warning Model S and Model X owners that they are also going to be affected after a new update.

We are talking about fairly significant changes including a requirement to apply pressure to the steering wheel every 15 seconds when using Autopilot.

- https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/17/tesla ... gulations/

So another problem for customers with "over the air" software updating.

This follows the accusations by owners of Model S cars that their range was reduced by Tesla "upgrading" the battery protection software after spontaneous fires.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/tesla-b ... gency.html

Over the air updates may prove to be as much of a disadvantage as a benefit if one's car suffers sudden downgrading. Owning a Tesla might be a bit like having an old Microsoft or Apple computer where updates become a problem? Or dare I suggest that it is a bit like VW improving customers diesels' emissions by lowering their performance after dieselgate.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla hopes to cut price of Chinese model 3 by 20% next year:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3526981-p ... email_link

Regards,

If true, this will be another bad Marketing decision by Tesla. It will destroy the second-hand value of Model 3 by the end of next year and really irritate the initial purchasers who see that they have been conned. Even rumours like this indicate that their pricing policy is suspect. They need to decide to either price the car cheaply with the certainty of lower costs for locally made parts, or go for lower volume premium prices and reduce the loss on each car made as the part costs go down.

Bloomberg aren't doing Tesla any favours by suggesting this strategy. It is likely to put off early purchases. I suppose it could be helpful if Tesla are hugely production constrained and have major problems producing cars, but surely that isn't the case?

regards

Howard

There is some truth to what you type, but the pragmatic approach in a business of production is to make sure your product is selling & keep down inventory.

As a practical example I manufacture led lights & I have been retailing them at £15 each, but not selling many. So I lowered the price to £10 & sold more.

Obviously I would prefer to flog them at £15, but I don't like having unsold inventory & so I have reduced prices & improved the manufacturing so that I can flog them at £10 on a reasonable margin.

Sure someone who bought one at £15 will not be happy, but do I keep them happy & keep inventory, or do what I have done?

Meanwhile for the affluent discerning folk such as Howard I am working towards more expensive lights with blacksmith adornments etc in an attempt to market to both ranges of consumer.

This is, as I understand it, what Tesla are doing, following in the footsteps of Henry Ford who reduced prices to build.volume.

Looking at balance sheets & p&l can only steer a business so much, there is another level of reacting to what the market will pay. I expect the price of Tesla to reduce over time causing volume to rise, but without margin erosion.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

This is, as I understand it, what Tesla are doing, following in the footsteps of Henry Ford who reduced prices to build.volume.

What Tesla are doing is constantly fiddling with their prices rather than adopting and sticking to a pricing strategy. There's merit in many different pricing strategies, but you have to pick one...

[odysseus2000]

This is, as I understand it, what Tesla are doing, following in the footsteps of Henry Ford who reduced prices to build.volume.

What Tesla are doing is constantly fiddling with their prices rather than adopting and sticking to a pricing strategy. There's merit in many different pricing strategies, but you have to pick one...

In my experience of business what counts most is flexibility and the ability to react to demand and keep inventory at sensible levels.

E.g. if you are selling coats and you find that red outsells other colours by 3 to 1, your next order would not be equal number of each colour but more red than any other colour.

Similarly with price, if you can't keep inventory on the shelf you might raise price a bit, alternatively if inventory is pulling the shelf down you would have a sale.

Business is not about being fixed in anything but about being flexible in all things.

Regards,