Musk endeavours

[redsturgeon]

I don't think you are considering resale value, not important for LED lights but crucial for cars.

I am not so much concerned with the purchase price of a car but more interested in the cost of ownership. One of the main factors in this equation is depreciation. A reduction in price of 20% for new model 3s will be absolutely catastrophic for resale values of existing 3s and therefore very undesirable.

John

[BobbyD]

I don't think you are considering resale value, not important for LED lights but crucial for cars.

I am not so much concerned with the purchase price of a car but more interested in the cost of ownership. One of the main factors in this equation is depreciation. A reduction in price of 20% for new model 3s will be absolutely catastrophic for resale values of existing 3s and therefore very undesirable.

John

Predictability also has a different value if you are talking about variance in the dollars range against the thousands of dollars range, and the recriminations of those who psychologically 'lose out' are also likely to be of different magnitudes.

This is actually a downside to Tesla's sales model, albeit one they are doing everything possible to exacerbate rather than mitigate. Everybody else can blame the dealer...

[Howard]

I don't think you are considering resale value, not important for LED lights but crucial for cars.

I am not so much concerned with the purchase price of a car but more interested in the cost of ownership. One of the main factors in this equation is depreciation. A reduction in price of 20% for new model 3s will be absolutely catastrophic for resale values of existing 3s and therefore very undesirable.

John

Looking at BEVs in general in the UK, I see that they are getting some valuable promotion from energy companies if my supplier, EDF is typical.

As you have previously said you are considering a BEV as a company car, you might find their information interesting.

For example they have worked out a rather extreme scenario for the running costs of a company car with 15,000 annual mileage commuting to central London from April 2020 to March 2021.

Taking into account fuel costs, congestion charges and BIK, a BEV would cost over £7,000 less per year to run compared with a similar petrol model. For someone never going in to London, take off around £2,400 congestion charge. The BIK and fuel saving costs are pretty significant alone.

For us private motorists, the costs of a BEV are still high. Two examples from EDF for a three year lease are:

Cost of leasing a Tesla 9+35 at £484 a month, 10k per year is a total of £ 21,300 for basic Model 3. Plus £600 for a basic home charger which will take around 6 hours to top up from 0 - 120 miles range. EDF say this car has 210 miles real world range.

By comparison a Hyundai Ioniq is 9+35 at £257 a month for 10k per year, total £11,308 cost. Plus charger. EDF say this car has 160 miles real world range which also takes around 6 hours to top up from 0 - 120 miles.

This information, clearly presented by EDF, is encouraging for the BEV cause. Once there is a little more price competition, then I could see this promoting more BEV ownership.

Link below is to EDF business, but the personal lease costs are easy to find as well.

https://www.edfenergy.com/sme-business

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

I don't think you are considering resale value, not important for LED lights but crucial for cars.

I am not so much concerned with the purchase price of a car but more interested in the cost of ownership. One of the main factors in this equation is depreciation. A reduction in price of 20% for new model 3s will be absolutely catastrophic for resale values of existing 3s and therefore very undesirable.

John

From Tesla perspective it comes down to will a price reduction bring in enough buyers to offset the losses from those who bought before & are so vexed that they will never buy another Tesla.

Historically Ford used price reductions as a way to flog model T, likely a depreciation that was comparable to what Tesla owners may now suffer. If it worked then can we be sure it won't work now?

Meanwhile if you buy an ice you are also subject to potential depreciation and/or punitive government taxes to force adoption of BEV.

As I look at things there are many factors here to consider & I don't think one can have the kind of transport revolution I imagine without some collateral damage.

If some one asked me to recommend a new car purchase or lease I would not know what to suggest from a financial case, but I would suggest that BEV are the future.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Thanks Howard I will look at that.

My plan is definitely to buy a car on the company for 2020-21. With a BEV that's 100% capital allowance in year one, so for a £40k car that's £8k saving off corporation tax straight away. Then with 0% BIK and all running costs except private petrol on the company it really is a no brainer. We run about 12000 business miles per year so close to £4000 pa saving on running costs too.

John

[BobbyD]

I don't think you are considering resale value, not important for LED lights but crucial for cars.

I am not so much concerned with the purchase price of a car but more interested in the cost of ownership. One of the main factors in this equation is depreciation. A reduction in price of 20% for new model 3s will be absolutely catastrophic for resale values of existing 3s and therefore very undesirable.

John

From Tesla perspective it comes down to will a price reduction bring in enough buyers to offset the losses from those who bought before & are so vexed that they will never buy another Tesla.

Only if you are completely ignoring the bit of Red's post that you directly quoted...

[BobbyD]

Looks like the new Seat Mii electric has made it on to Leasing.com, or Howard's site, as I like to think of it...

[BobbyD]

Spent the evening watching a football game in Qatar, checked my mail to find this...

‘Project Qatar Mobility’: Self-driving shuttles set to take Doha's local public transport to the next level in 2022

Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and Volkswagen AG announce pioneering autonomous, electric transport initiative to transform urban mobility in Qatar

Prototypes of ID. BUZZ AD shuttles from Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles and of Scania buses to operate on a self-driving system with zero emissions

MOIA ride hailing app is used to run the service, AID delivers Self Driving System (SDS) knowledge

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2022-5679

Apple And Tesla Among Tech Giants Being Sued Over The Deaths And Injuries Of Child Cobalt Miners In DRC

- https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogo ... d537fb3107

[odysseus2000]

Tesla equity reached an all time high today of $395.22, the June low was $176.99, or a gain of $218.32 or 123% in less than 6 months.

I would like to thank all the naysayers for their bearish commentary, hate and disbelief. Without them such fabulous equity returns could not have been made.

No one knows what the future holds for any equity, but the history of Tesla for the last 6 months has been a spectacular rocket ride which I have enjoyed.

Kind regards,

[BobbyD]

I would like to thank all the naysayers for their bearish commentary, hate and disbelief.

You sound a lot more reasonable when you take off the chip and the tin foil hat Ody.

[Howard]

Tesla equity reached an all time high today of $395.22, the June low was $176.99, or a gain of $218.32 or 123% in less than 6 months.

I would like to thank all the naysayers for their bearish commentary, hate and disbelief. Without them such fabulous equity returns could not have been made.

No one knows what the future holds for any equity, but the history of Tesla for the last 6 months has been a spectacular rocket ride which I have enjoyed.
cc
Kind regards,

Congratulations to anyone who bought in June! However, Ody, you do sound like an excited amateur investor sometimes. Choosing a specific timeframe to champion your favourite investment! For someone holding Tesla for a year or 18 months, the capital gains are much more pedestrian.

Tracking the Nasdaq for a year when it's gone from just over 6,000 to nearly 9,000 would have been a much safer investment than Tesla and would have produced higher return for much lower risk.

Well done on your "casino" win, if you did buy at the bottom. It will be interesting to see how Tesla fares when we know its year-end performance.

See chart for EQQQ which tracks the Nasdaq. This ETF has nearly tripled over five years. Disclosure - I hold.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

One authors opinion of recent equity price move in Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/431328 ... king_alpha

Regards,

[Howard]

Modest plans from VW announced.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indu ... odels-2020

A few more BEVs to hit the streets in 2020. And record operating profit forecast despite a modest reduction in sales but an increased market share as rivals volumes are down more.

The increase in profits is being used to invest nearly Euro 10 billion in electric vehicles over the next four years.
regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

Modest plans from VW announced.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indu ... odels-2020

Thanks Howard. I think this is the original VW release: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ation-5688

Contains some little extras.

[dspp]

"Germany’s Manager Magazine reports today that Volkswagen is struggling with software problems for its ID3 all-electric car. According to the report, the ID3 will be built for months with an incomplete software architecture that could affect up to 20,000 electric cars. These units, intended for sales in Europe and not the US, will require a manual software update."

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswag ... oductions/

OTA updates anyone ?

- dspp

[redsturgeon]

"Germany’s Manager Magazine reports today that Volkswagen is struggling with software problems for its ID3 all-electric car. According to the report, the ID3 will be built for months with an incomplete software architecture that could affect up to 20,000 electric cars. These units, intended for sales in Europe and not the US, will require a manual software update."

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswag ... oductions/

OTA updates anyone ?

- dspp

The article states that these will be available after May.

One of the reasons I am wary about ordering any car until it is on the road and working properly.

My ICE Golf goes back in June 2020 and I will probably run just two cars (BMW PHEV and son's petrol Fiesta*} for a few months until I am happy with the BEV situation but I will be buying a BEV sometime in 2020.

John

*Fiesta is insured for three children for use as needed and son is off to USA for four year in August so it will be spare for me as necessary.

[redsturgeon]

I been looking around trying to discover the nature of the software issue and can't find any details. It does not seem to stop them driving around quite a few demo cars though.

John

[dspp]

I been looking around trying to discover the nature of the software issue and can't find any details. It does not seem to stop them driving around quite a few demo cars though.

John

Yes it wasn't clear to me either. I do know that not having an OTA update capability was a significant bankruptcy / forced acquisition factor for a competitor of mine once upon a time, when they hit a product issue with a large installed fleet. I appreciate the pros & cons of being able to do it, but surely VAG can manage the requisite crypto to protect against the downside ?

Anyway, nice to see my TSLA shares doing well with a steep upwards trajectory. The mirror image is my HUR shares with a steep downwards trajectory. This is very definitely the high risk end of the market.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

"Germany’s Manager Magazine reports today that Volkswagen is struggling with software problems for its ID3 all-electric car. According to the report, the ID3 will be built for months with an incomplete software architecture that could affect up to 20,000 electric cars. These units, intended for sales in Europe and not the US, will require a manual software update."

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswag ... oductions/

OTA updates anyone ?

- dspp

I had a look at this just after you posted it, but all I could find were reports of a single report, concerning an undefined problem, behind a paywall, in a single publication I'm not familiar with in a language I and most of the people relaying the report can't read.

I'm not saying it isn't true, but neither is it anywhere close to the level an actual journalist, apart possibly from the one who wrote the report we can't read and wouldn't understand if we could, would require for confirmation before publication.

Re OTA: from the Electrec report of the report:

New software will be manually installed in this manner for the first 10,000 or so ID3s. A total of 20,000 ID3 vehicles will need to be reworked until the second wave of production begins in May. At that time, further software updates can be deployed over-the-air.

Worst case scenario, if there is anything to the report, early vehicles are dripped back in to the supply as their software is updated.

[BobbyD]

On the subject of rumour, speculation and leaked emails...

Tesla's delivery department is "facing a significant shortage of volunteers" for the final weeks of the year, the electric-car maker told employees in an email obtained by Business Insider.

The email was sent Tuesday by Bert Bruggeman, Tesla's vice president of manufacturing at its Fremont, California, vehicle-assembly plant.

- https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-l ... ?r=US&IR=T


Is it just me or does it no longer feel like the end of a calendar quarter without reports of a Tesla delivery rush?


Oh, and Santa has ditched the sleigh for what is rumoured to be the ID Entry, presumably one day to be renamed the id.1, according to the always reliable VW xmas card.

- https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... del-sketch