Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Can this be true? Yet another broken promise by Elon Musk.

According to the FT, Forbes and a lot of other news sites, the machines he bought and supplied New York aren't ventilators. They are simple breathing aids (BPAP and CPAP) of which there are, (according to Forbes and the FT) more than 8 million in the USA already.

Quote from FT. "BPAP and CPAP machines are not normally called ventilators at all, and are far more common: according to Forbes there are more than 8 million CPAP users in the US alone. "

"But doctors have recommended against using the machines to treat coronavirus patients because they can actually facilitate disease transmission."

If this is true, how low can Musk stoop for publicity?

And this follows a whole series of stupid tweets about Covid 19.

This reinforces the flaky reputation of the Tesla brand. Led by either someone who is conning the US public or can't be bothered to check what is needed to help the health authorities

regards

Howard

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/01/ ... machines-/

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-donated- ... ventilator

I have no idea if Musk is charming us with snake oil.

I have no idea what is true or untrue anymore in this crisis.

The media are out of control, government messages are so obtuse and blunt that I have no idea what they are trying to tell me. There are experts all over the place telling me stuff that is contradictory and confusing.

Is c19 dangerous? What are the infection numbers? What are the illness levels. Is stay at home working in flattening the curve or not. How do the politicians/experts know? These are basic things and if we don't know them then its garbage in, garbage policies out.

Experts who talk about the areas I know something about are often peddling non-sense.

Today I read the NHS was offered 30k ventilators by the EU but Boris refused them. Then I was told Boris was self isolating. Then I was told he was visiting hospitals with film crews via the back doors.

The health secretary Matt Hancock has been promising all manner of stuff and delivering nothing but more words.

There are now may more cars on the roads than there were a few days ago and it all looks to me like the politicians have lost control of the agenda.

I have no idea if what Musk says are ventilators are ventilators, no faith in anything at the moment, save for what prices are telling me and everything is extremely volatile so no one else seems confident in things either.

Do you personally know if the FT and Futurism articles are accurate? Do you personally know if government advice is good?

For me everything is now so random and untrustworthy that I can no longer make sensible statements.

Regards,

[dealtn]

For me everything is now so random and untrustworthy that I can no longer make sensible statements.

Lol.

More than anytime I suggest you learn to differentiate the difference between "noise" and "news". Unless you can very clearly establish it is from a verified expert it is best to ignore it as it will be "noise". Even then it might not be possible to make a sensible statement.

[Howard]

Can this be true? Yet another broken promise by Elon Musk.

According to the FT, Forbes and a lot of other news sites, the machines he bought and supplied New York aren't ventilators. They are simple breathing aids (BPAP and CPAP) of which there are, (according to Forbes and the FT) more than 8 million in the USA already.

Quote from FT. "BPAP and CPAP machines are not normally called ventilators at all, and are far more common: according to Forbes there are more than 8 million CPAP users in the US alone. "

"But doctors have recommended against using the machines to treat coronavirus patients because they can actually facilitate disease transmission."

If this is true, how low can Musk stoop for publicity?

And this follows a whole series of stupid tweets about Covid 19.

This reinforces the flaky reputation of the Tesla brand. Led by either someone who is conning the US public or can't be bothered to check what is needed to help the health authorities

regards

Howard

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/01/ ... machines-/

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-donated- ... ventilator

I have no idea if Musk is charming us with snake oil.

I have no idea what is true or untrue anymore in this crisis.

The media are out of control, government messages are so obtuse and blunt that I have no idea what they are trying to tell me. There are experts all over the place telling me stuff that is contradictory and confusing.

Is c19 dangerous? What are the infection numbers? What are the illness levels. Is stay at home working in flattening the curve or not. How do the politicians/experts know? These are basic things and if we don't know them then its garbage in, garbage policies out.

Experts who talk about the areas I know something about are often peddling non-sense.

Today I read the NHS was offered 30k ventilators by the EU but Boris refused them. Then I was told Boris was self isolating. Then I was told he was visiting hospitals with film crews via the back doors.

The health secretary Matt Hancock has been promising all manner of stuff and delivering nothing but more words.

There are now may more cars on the roads than there were a few days ago and it all looks to me like the politicians have lost control of the agenda.

I have no idea if what Musk says are ventilators are ventilators, no faith in anything at the moment, save for what prices are telling me and everything is extremely volatile so no one else seems confident in things either.

Do you personally know if the FT and Futurism articles are accurate? Do you personally know if government advice is good?

For me everything is now so random and untrustworthy that I can no longer make sensible statements.

Regards,

One thing you can be pretty certain of is that virtually every major public forecast and promise Elon Musk has made so far has proved to be false.

You may not want to believe it but with his track record, this news is likely to be cast iron correct.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

For me everything is now so random and untrustworthy that I can no longer make sensible statements.

Lol.

More than anytime I suggest you learn to differentiate the difference between "noise" and "news". Unless you can very clearly establish it is from a verified expert it is best to ignore it as it will be "noise". Even then it might not be possible to make a sensible statement.

Since I have been in the markets for a long time I am good at telling news from noise, but not now and no one else is either:

One can quantify uncertainty and disbelief, that is what the Vix index tells you and it is now at elevated levels not seen since 2008:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/124579 ... 39584?s=20

This is an example of the lack of research being done by the media with Peston being set right:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/12456 ... 93442?s=20

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

One thing you can be pretty certain of is that virtually every major public forecast and promise Elon Musk has made so far has proved to be false.

You may not want to believe it but with his track record, this news is likely to be cast iron correct.

regards

Howard

Musk has created the electric car industry, something he said he would do and he has created charging infra-structure to support it.

Meanwhile VW were caught not misleading customers, but in deliberate lies to them, to gain pecuniary advantage, aka thieving.

GM led the world in electric cars and were so frightened of the technology that they took back all their electric cars, in several cases with police enforcement, and then crushed them.

Toyota made cars that suddenly self accelerated and killed people and they spent a long time saying it wasn't so, till they were forced to fix their cars.

You may want to believe that Musk is a serial liar and that everyone else in the car space are serial saints. That is entirely up to you.

All I care about is whether I can make money off Tesla equity.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Munroe likes the Y:

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/04/02/tes ... zRlsbTs6DR

Tesla equity rallies 16% in the after market.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla production,deliveries:

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news ... deliveries

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla production,deliveries:

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news ... deliveries

Regards,

Thank you Ody, here is the updated data set - I can live with that in the current rather unique circumstances - dspp

[odysseus2000]

Medtronics says Tesla/SpaceX are now making a vital part for their ventilators that will speed delivery:

https://twitter.com/Medtronic/status/12 ... 14945?s=20

Regards,

[Howard]

The UK sales figures for March are out today and they are the final pre-Corvid19 indicators of how the UK BEV market would look with the massive UK Government BIK subsidies helping expensive BEV sales.

Tesla sold a maximum of 5,235 cars in March. This was a creditable performance. They achieved a one-month share of 45% of BEV models by diverting car transporter ships to dock at UK ports, rather than going straight to Europe. However, their share of the total UK car market in March was only 2% of the 254,684 sales in the month.

Total UK car sales in March were 44% down on March last year.

German premium car brand sales in March were broadly down around 40% compared with March last year, but they were massive in volume terms compared with Tesla. Interestingly, Porsche sales were up nearly 13% year on year. Presumably they benefited from the government BEV subsidies too.

With UK sales of only around 6,000 year to date, it will be interesting to see how Tesla fares for the rest of the year.

We have seen fancy growth forecasts for Tesla on this forum which are all now shown to be wildy optimistic. Will demand for their cars holds up worldwide? There are signs that it is going to be a much more difficult task for them to sell in the volume required to match their market valuation.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

[odysseus2000]

The UK sales figures for March are out today and they are the final pre-Corvid19 indicators of how the UK BEV market would look with the massive UK Government BIK subsidies helping expensive BEV sales.

Tesla sold a maximum of 5,235 cars in March. This was a creditable performance. They achieved a one-month share of 45% of BEV models by diverting car transporter ships to dock at UK ports, rather than going straight to Europe. However, their share of the total UK car market in March was only 2% of the 254,684 sales in the month.

Total UK car sales in March were 44% down on March last year.

German premium car brand sales in March were broadly down around 40% compared with March last year, but they were massive in volume terms compared with Tesla. Interestingly, Porsche sales were up nearly 13% year on year. Presumably they benefited from the government BEV subsidies too.

With UK sales of only around 6,000 year to date, it will be interesting to see how Tesla fares for the rest of the year.

We have seen fancy growth forecasts for Tesla on this forum which are all now shown to be wildy optimistic. Will demand for their cars holds up worldwide? There are signs that it is going to be a much more difficult task for them to sell in the volume required to match their market valuation.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

Tesla have come from nowhere to take nearly half of the BEV market.

Meanwhile German premium car sales are down 40%.

Given the ongoing situation with c19 it seems now likely that we are moving into a hard recession, some would say a depression.

There will still be folk with money, but imho, it seems likely that volumes in all automotive sectors will decline substantially. The longer this lock down goes on, the less wear and tear on the existing car fleet and the less motivation to buy a new car.

We are in unprecedented times but I suspect newness and better technology will still sell in reduced volumes and I remain of the opinion that Tesla are well placed and legacy auto is badly placed.

Regards,

[Howard]

Tesla have come from nowhere to take nearly half of the BEV market.

Meanwhile German premium car sales are down 40%.

Given the ongoing situation with c19 it seems now likely that we are moving into a hard recession, some would say a depression.

There will still be folk with money, but imho, it seems likely that volumes in all automotive sectors will decline substantially. The longer this lock down goes on, the less wear and tear on the existing car fleet and the less motivation to buy a new car.

We are in unprecedented times but I suspect newness and better technology will still sell in reduced volumes and I remain of the opinion that Tesla are well placed and legacy auto is badly placed.

Regards,

Ody, you do write some rubbish ! Tesla haven’t come from nowhere. They have been selling cars in the UK for around six years! And after a supreme effort and with a following wind this year they have temporarily achieved a market share of around 1%. They have only achieved a market share of 33% of the BEV market in the UK year to date.

The premium brands have sold around 115,000 cars ytd and VW alone sold an additional 45,000. I don’t think they will be worrying too much about Tesla (a loss-making small player selling 6,000 cars). They have bigger problems to worry about.

By the time the Corvid19 crisis is over, the car market worldwide is going to be completely different. The likely downturn is going to give the major manufacturers time to refine their BEV and PHEV models to be even more competitive.

It wouldn’t surprise me to hear that VW will be able to concentrate on fine-tuning the software for their ID3 model. They are already teasing the market with sophisticated electronics and head-up displays for launch in the summer.

regards

Howard

See this for the VW HUD teaser: https://electrek.co/2020/04/03/vw-heads ... ctric-car/

[odysseus2000]

VW was founded in 1937, re-start in 1945 and so it is 75 years old.

Tesla have been selling here for 6 years and have achieved as you posted 45% of the BEV market last month, which I rounded up to 50%.

The whole idea that selling volumes of last centuries tech is somehow a good thing seems ridiculous to me. As an investor one has to look forward not backwards and as I look forward I see legacy in dire circumstances. They have to stop producing cars and lay off a chunk of their workers with these kinds of sales declines and as cars are not being used in the UK, they are not going to thrive on spare parts or new sales. If I was in their boardroom I would be extremely frightened, especially as the Y which is much more of a Euoepan car is getting such good reviews and if the information is correct will soon cost less as they have advanced battery technology. Meanwhile Tesla is slowly rolling out their own insurance business which is a fab money spinner, new models are coming and they also have storage and new solar roofs.

Regards,

[dealtn]

They have to stop producing cars

Why?

[Howard]

VW was founded in 1937, re-start in 1945 and so it is 75 years old.

Tesla have been selling here for 6 years and have achieved as you posted 45% of the BEV market last month, which I rounded up to 50%.

The whole idea that selling volumes of last centuries tech is somehow a good thing seems ridiculous to me. As an investor one has to look forward not backwards and as I look forward I see legacy in dire circumstances. They have to stop producing cars and lay off a chunk of their workers with these kinds of sales declines and as cars are not being used in the UK, they are not going to thrive on spare parts or new sales. If I was in their boardroom I would be extremely frightened, especially as the Y which is much more of a Euoepan car is getting such good reviews and if the information is correct will soon cost less as they have advanced battery technology. Meanwhile Tesla is slowly rolling out their own insurance business which is a fab money spinner, new models are coming and they also have storage and new solar roofs.

Regards,

Evidence please that Tesla insurance is a "fab money spinner". I think you'll find it is a loss-making distraction .

Also, do you have any evidence that the model Y has been sold in any volume? The fact that Tesla haven't revealed any sales figures for it might suggest it is a bit of a damp squib?

regards

Howard

[dspp]

It wouldn’t surprise me to hear that VW will be able to concentrate on fine-tuning the software for their ID3 model. They are already teasing the market with sophisticated electronics and head-up displays for launch in the summer.

regards

Howard

Maybe VAG should try writing a bootloader for OTA software update first.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

VW was founded in 1937, re-start in 1945 and so it is 75 years old.

Tesla have been selling here for 6 years and have achieved as you posted 45% of the BEV market last month, which I rounded up to 50%.

The whole idea that selling volumes of last centuries tech is somehow a good thing seems ridiculous to me. As an investor one has to look forward not backwards and as I look forward I see legacy in dire circumstances. They have to stop producing cars and lay off a chunk of their workers with these kinds of sales declines and as cars are not being used in the UK, they are not going to thrive on spare parts or new sales. If I was in their boardroom I would be extremely frightened, especially as the Y which is much more of a Euoepan car is getting such good reviews and if the information is correct will soon cost less as they have advanced battery technology. Meanwhile Tesla is slowly rolling out their own insurance business which is a fab money spinner, new models are coming and they also have storage and new solar roofs.

Regards,

Evidence please that Tesla insurance is a "fab money spinner". I think you'll find it is a loss-making distraction .

Also, do you have any evidence that the model Y has been sold in any volume? The fact that Tesla haven't revealed any sales figures for it might suggest it is a bit of a damp squib?

regards

Howard

Insurance costs are 1/4 to 1/2 of lease payments. Of course underwriting is usually run at a loss, but all of that float is very useful. Ask Buffett if Berkshire's insurance is profitable.

Model y is not in full production as far as I know, so I don't expect volume sales yet. y is interesting in that some speculate that it will have a different battery configuration that offers similar range but lower cost and weight. Battery day as far as I know has not been decided upon.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Ask Buffett if Berkshire's insurance is profitable.

Very much so, he would reply. That doesn't mean the same answer applies to Musk though does it?

[Howard]

VW was founded in 1937, re-start in 1945 and so it is 75 years old.

Tesla have been selling here for 6 years and have achieved as you posted 45% of the BEV market last month, which I rounded up to 50%.

The whole idea that selling volumes of last centuries tech is somehow a good thing seems ridiculous to me. As an investor one has to look forward not backwards and as I look forward I see legacy in dire circumstances. They have to stop producing cars and lay off a chunk of their workers with these kinds of sales declines and as cars are not being used in the UK, they are not going to thrive on spare parts or new sales. If I was in their boardroom I would be extremely frightened, especially as the Y which is much more of a Euoepan car is getting such good reviews and if the information is correct will soon cost less as they have advanced battery technology. Meanwhile Tesla is slowly rolling out their own insurance business which is a fab money spinner, new models are coming and they also have storage and new solar roofs.

Regards,

Evidence please that Tesla insurance is a "fab money spinner". I think you'll find it is a loss-making distraction .

Also, do you have any evidence that the model Y has been sold in any volume? The fact that Tesla haven't revealed any sales figures for it might suggest it is a bit of a damp squib?

regards

Howard

Insurance costs are 1/4 to 1/2 of lease payments. Of course underwriting is usually run at a loss, but all of that float is very useful. Ask Buffett if Berkshire's insurance is profitable.

Model y is not in full production as far as I know, so I don't expect volume sales yet. y is interesting in that some speculate that it will have a different battery configuration that offers similar range but lower cost and weight. Battery day as far as I know has not been decided upon.

Regards,

So you have no evidence that Tesla are making any profits from insurance.

I would guess if you asked Warren Buffett if Tesla were competing with Geico and writing insurance profitably, he'd chuckle and think you were mad .

All they are doing is acting as a broker for a smaller insurance company. The amount of margin will be tiny and will be swallowed up by admin costs.

Let's hope your forecast about the model Y is less optimistic. Hopefully we'll see some sales figures soon, but they can't be that large without substituting for Model 3 sales.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

So you have no evidence that Tesla are making any profits from insurance.

I would guess if you asked Warren Buffett if Tesla were competing with Geico and writing insurance profitably, he'd chuckle and think you were mad .

All they are doing is acting as a broker for a smaller insurance company. The amount of margin will be tiny and will be swallowed up by admin costs.

regards

Howard

They are currently only in California as I understand it, but loyal Tesla drivers are keen it goes nationwide.

Don't forget that Tesla can tailor insurance to driver and his/her style of driving as relayed back to them via wireless. This is a competitive advantage.

Regards,