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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#325298

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 9:08 pm

Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325299

Postby Lootman » July 10th, 2020, 9:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

Yes, at the time it was said that the SEC was going to investigate Musk for trying to ramp the stock price. I am going out on a limb now to say that investigations is probably dormant.

Of course the $420 price level was a bit of an in joke given his on-screen pot smoking fun.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325314

Postby dspp » July 10th, 2020, 11:14 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

Regards,


At these prices TSLA is even getting close to offsetting my HUR losses !

Amazing.

Regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325644

Postby odysseus2000 » July 12th, 2020, 4:40 pm

This price cutting by Tesla looks very like the play book of Henry Ford. He argued that by cutting prices he could provide more cars to the people and he sold more and more:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590421-t ... ent=link-3

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325665

Postby odysseus2000 » July 12th, 2020, 6:14 pm

Kind of finding it difficult to believe this is true, but if this new recently patented technology is as presented here, the whole world is about to change & Tesla equity is massively under priced. Batteries with this energy density would make commercial short haul passenger aircraft go from a dream to reality & totally change most of the world's technology:

https://youtu.be/RxSWpoAeZ1M

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325824

Postby odysseus2000 » July 13th, 2020, 2:41 pm

Ground control to Tesla stock: You have lift off, guidance is internal, God speed!

Equity going up like a rocket!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325847

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » July 13th, 2020, 4:29 pm

P/e forecast to fall from c 6,300 to c 170 in 2021.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325848

Postby dspp » July 13th, 2020, 4:32 pm

My very giddy aunt. $1758. Wowsers.

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325856

Postby Lootman » July 13th, 2020, 4:38 pm

dspp wrote:My very giddy aunt. $1758. Wowsers.

Yes, somehow Tesla is worth 14% more than it was on Friday, and double what it was just a few weeks ago.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325861

Postby odysseus2000 » July 13th, 2020, 5:02 pm

Lootman wrote:
dspp wrote:My very giddy aunt. $1758. Wowsers.

Yes, somehow Tesla is worth 14% more than it was on Friday, and double what it was just a few weeks ago.


If the new battery performance is as I posted a few posts ago, Tesla at these prices is giveaway cheap.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325881

Postby redsturgeon » July 13th, 2020, 7:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Ground control to Tesla stock: You have lift off, guidance is internal, God speed!

Equity going up like a rocket!

Regards,


And back down to earth!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325886

Postby Lootman » July 13th, 2020, 7:39 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Ground control to Tesla stock: You have lift off, guidance is internal, God speed!

Equity going up like a rocket!

And back down to earth!

It has been taken over by quant funds and day traders. Buyer beware.

Just look at the open interest on short-term Tesla options. It is very high for a share with such a high nominal share price - a single options contract on TSLA carries an underlying value of $160,000 or so.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325912

Postby odysseus2000 » July 13th, 2020, 11:28 pm

Lootman wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Ground control to Tesla stock: You have lift off, guidance is internal, God speed!

Equity going up like a rocket!

And back down to earth!

It has been taken over by quant funds and day traders. Buyer beware.

Just look at the open interest on short-term Tesla options. It is very high for a share with such a high nominal share price - a single options contract on TSLA carries an underlying value of $160,000 or so.


Tesla has long been the play ground of folk with serious money and that is not many private investors.

Today the equity rocketed but gave everyone who was long over the weekend an opportunity to sell out at a great profit and then it gave the shorts an opportunity to get in before it rolled over. For the shorts it has to keep going or they will likely cover as they have been burned several times expecting a collapse. The nasdaq was an outside day, but the spx and Russell didn't take out Fridays low and the Dow was up. We might be seeing a blow off top, or we might get a turn around Tuesday if the shorts thesis is questioned by a lack of follow through.

Tesla has the potential to dive if some really bad news comes or rally hard on short covering if some good news comes out.

As I have typed many times, Tesla is not a widows and orphans stock and anyone involved with it needs to understand the risks and rewards. It is likely that there were folk who made a lot of money long, folk who had the money in their hands and let it slip away (I was guilty of some of this sin), folk who chased and got burned, folk who made a lot of money short. I can be pretty confident that all the news letters that have gone out tonight will tell the readers of how the writer rode this to penny perfection as they always say. Certainly possible that some did, but most won't have.

I have no idea what will happen to the price tomorrow, but the price movement will tell anyone who watches what is happening although it may be very volatile.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325951

Postby odysseus2000 » July 14th, 2020, 8:26 am

Piper Sandler raises Tesla price target to over $2300, video as well:

https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/pi ... er%20share.

Would prefer some bearish price targets & if equity price comes off more, we may get them.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325992

Postby odysseus2000 » July 14th, 2020, 10:19 am

This is a 1hr 29 minutes pod cast with Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter.

This is by far the best analysis I have ever heard about Tesla and it also gives many glimpses into the analysts world. Potter is very good as he takes his research seriously, buys a Tesla, gets a solar roof and is moving towards power walls so that he has first hand experience of the technologies and allows him to more accurately make estimates of the demand for the various Tesla business. He also tells you what he has put into his valuations, what he hasn't and explains many of the reason why being an analyst is a hard job and that no one person can know everything about a company and that most analysts have to cover a dozen or more companies.

Anyone who doesn't understand Tesla would find this pod cast a very good listen as it describes the business from a financial perspective and explains the moats, the difficulties of competitors, the many business that Tesla is and a whole host of other stuff that gives the best overall view of Tesla I have come across:

https://youtu.be/ey3UeFJqSqY

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Re: Musk endeavours

#325995

Postby dealtn » July 14th, 2020, 10:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:This is a 1hr 29 minutes pod cast with Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter.

This is by far the best analysis I have ever heard about Tesla and it also gives many glimpses into the analysts world. Potter is very good as he takes his research seriously, buys a Tesla, gets a solar roof and is moving towards power walls so that he has first hand experience of the technologies and allows him to more accurately make estimates of the demand for the various Tesla business. He also tells you what he has put into his valuations, what he hasn't and explains many of the reason why being an analyst is a hard job and that no one person can know everything about a company and that most analysts have to cover a dozen or more companies.

Anyone who doesn't understand Tesla would find this pod cast a very good listen as it describes the business from a financial perspective and explains the moats, the difficulties of competitors, the many business that Tesla is and a whole host of other stuff that gives the best overall view of Tesla I have come across:

https://youtu.be/ey3UeFJqSqY

Regards,


I will find the time to watch it later.

Does he also buy a non-Tesla car, use non-solar energy, buy alternative non-Tesla products for the technology etc.? If not it might be difficult to think of him as a neutral "analyst" but as a "non-neutral" fan of the company.

The fact you are proclaiming it to be "by far the best analysis..." just screams out confirmation bias to me.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326008

Postby odysseus2000 » July 14th, 2020, 11:16 am

dealtn
Does he also buy a non-Tesla car, use non-solar energy, buy alternative non-Tesla products for the technology etc.? If not it might be difficult to think of him as a neutral "analyst" but as a "non-neutral" fan of the company.


Since Tesla cars have not been around for long he must, not being a new driver, have experience of ice cars. He has also gone from a non solar roof, to a solar roof, so again as a before and after experience.

The investors job is to find out the likely direction of a potential investment and it is for this reason that I regularly take the trouble to follow bears on Tesla. So far all the ones I have followed have been either dismissive of Tesla as a fraud, usually supported by account analysis that doesn't make sense to me, a certainty that Tesla only exists due to a conspiracy of government funding, a belief that legacy can easily out do Tesla as their Audi is a great car, a belief that all productions numbers are faked,... So far I have not found any bear who has taken the trouble to analyse the business, the potential and the competitors in the way that is done in the pod cast.

The analysts job is to study a business and make estimates based on what he/she learns from such study. My bullishness on Tesla is based on such studies, it is not based on I like Tesla, I bought one, it goes really fast, therefore anything that Tesla does is great which is the depth of much bullish analysis that is as equally flawed as all the bearish analysis I have seen.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326185

Postby Howard » July 14th, 2020, 8:05 pm

One can’t help but be amazed by the Tesla share price and good luck to holders!

(As an investor in Scottish Mortgage I’m enjoying a diluted version of the share rise.)

However, for a growth company, Tesla’s sales in Europe are still surprisingly small and shrinking!

In the past I’ve suggested we watch the German market to see how Tesla fares against PHEV and BEV competition in a major European market. Tesla’s sales have been very low. I read somewhere that in June, Tesla only sold 841 cars in Germany. Sales year to date were 5,103 in H1 2020. Their market share is tiny in comparison to the total market including ICE. (see link below).

In the UK, despite massive government subsidies which make it a “no brainer” for any company car driver to choose a BEV, sales are 10,832 ytd (a market share of 1.66%). This is despite competitors’ dealerships being closed for many weeks when Tesla’s direct sales model should have been an advantage. (See the SMMT site for details.)

In Norway, Netherlands and Spain, Model 3 sales have slumped since last year, to a total of 4,796 sales in H1. Sales last year were 47,292 so the falls have been steep. A few S and X were sold as well.

Tesla sales worldwide in H1 are reported to be around 180,000, of which around 60,000 were in China. I’m guessing that sales in Europe in total were around 25,000. That suggests sales in the USA and the rest of the world were around 95,000. It's likely that a good proportion of these were in California.

We’ll wait to see if in the company’s half-year report they indicate if the Model Y has been a significant contributor to the US sales figures above.

I read analysts’ suggestions that sales will be “huge” next year. With a 180k first half, will they meet Elon Musk’s fairly recent forecast of 500,000 sales in 2020?

And with H1 sales of around 25k in Europe and competition hotting up in H2 and 2021, will the German factory be needed?

regards

Howard

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germa ... nd-models/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326199

Postby odysseus2000 » July 14th, 2020, 9:29 pm

Howard
In the UK, despite massive government subsidies which make it a “no brainer” for any company car driver to choose a BEV, sales are 10,832 ytd (a market share of 1.66%). This is despite competitors’ dealerships being closed for many weeks when Tesla’s direct sales model should have been an advantage. (See the SMMT site for details.)


If the economy was growing and people were driving I believe all car companies would be doing a lot better.

As things are, only in the last few weeks, have many jobs restarted and we have begun to see more normal car usage patterns.

Although people on this board are unto speed on BEV, that is not my experience in talking with people. Many have only the most limited understanding of BEV and many believe Tesla cars are prohibitively expensive, too new, too risky etc etc and most of all they believe ranges are too low and charging points too few.

I think it will be the fleet buyers who will cause the tsunami of the transition as folk will find they are getting a BEV, like it or not and in a very short while they will be sold on the idea and will be out boring everyone with range, easy charge and tremendously low running costs. I expect the y to sell well to business folk who need to take samples and such.

However, lets not forget that c19 has changed the way much business is done and the need for a sales rep to bring samples has mostly gone. The infrastructure for very fast deliveries exits now. E.g. I ordered a usb flash drive last Friday at about 10:30 pm and it was dropped off at 10:30 am the next day. This service cost me an extra £3.95, but saved me a morning in time and fuel as no one local had stock and I would otherwise have had to drive a fair way to get one.

Such services can't replace repair men who often travel with tools making the y likely convenient for them.

One should also remember that ICE emissions are not good for folk suffering the after effects of covid and this may cause politicians to introduce draconian legislation curtailing ICE in towns etc.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#326217

Postby Howard » July 14th, 2020, 11:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
In the UK, despite massive government subsidies which make it a “no brainer” for any company car driver to choose a BEV, sales are 10,832 ytd (a market share of 1.66%). This is despite competitors’ dealerships being closed for many weeks when Tesla’s direct sales model should have been an advantage. (See the SMMT site for details.)


If the economy was growing and people were driving I believe all car companies would be doing a lot better.

As things are, only in the last few weeks, have many jobs restarted and we have begun to see more normal car usage patterns.

Although people on this board are unto speed on BEV, that is not my experience in talking with people. Many have only the most limited understanding of BEV and many believe Tesla cars are prohibitively expensive, too new, too risky etc etc and most of all they believe ranges are too low and charging points too few.

I think it will be the fleet buyers who will cause the tsunami of the transition as folk will find they are getting a BEV, like it or not and in a very short while they will be sold on the idea and will be out boring everyone with range, easy charge and tremendously low running costs. I expect the y to sell well to business folk who need to take samples and such.

However, lets not forget that c19 has changed the way much business is done and the need for a sales rep to bring samples has mostly gone. The infrastructure for very fast deliveries exits now. E.g. I ordered a usb flash drive last Friday at about 10:30 pm and it was dropped off at 10:30 am the next day. This service cost me an extra £3.95, but saved me a morning in time and fuel as no one local had stock and I would otherwise have had to drive a fair way to get one.

Such services can't replace repair men who often travel with tools making the y likely convenient for them.

One should also remember that ICE emissions are not good for folk suffering the after effects of covid and this may cause politicians to introduce draconian legislation curtailing ICE in towns etc.

Regards,


Ody

I'm not sure you are right about the "Fleet Buyers". They may be influencers but probably not decision makers. I'm now retired, but from my previous experience someone entitled to a company car will be the ultimate decision-maker. And, especially if the initial price of the car is around £50k or more, the lucky senior executive will definitely choose which car he or she will drive. The fleet buyer will advise on running costs and the company will set the leasing cost limits for each grade of executive but the end user will make the choice. Yes, the company may have a BEV or PHEV only policy but won't dictate the brand. The business cost of leasing a Model 3 Long Range will be over £400 a month (much cheaper than the personal lease cost) but that puts it in a pricey bracket. I doubt if any company will pay this for a sales rep!

This is probably why sales aren't that great despite the apparent attraction of a Tesla. And, as we have discussed before, Tesla's reputation for poor reliability has obviously handicapped it in the past. No senior executive wants an unreliable car! I was lucky enough to drive some nice company cars during my career and can't ever remember a breakdown or repair necessary outside a routine service. Even a Jag was totally reliable.

I know this could be considered shallow but senior executives in Europe like a nice interior for their cars. I've yet to see a senior business executive or politician on TV getting out of a Tesla. Perhaps when Angela Merkel abandons her Mercedes or BMW for a Tesla we'll see a change :) . I don't think her German government fleet buyer has bought many Teslas yet!

regards

Howard


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