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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#265224

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 7:45 pm

BobbyD
You might find the question you pose uninteresting, but what I find interesting in assessing the validity of claims put and arguments made within this thread, and the point I was making, is that the very same poster who 5 minutes ago was claiming that VW's electrification claims were a PR sham designed to put a false sheen of modernity on an outdated and decaying carcass whose unwillingness to genuinely engage in electrification would lead to the inevitable downfall of the company is now of the opinion that VW's vigorous financing of their electrification scheme is in all likelihood going to lead to rack and ruin and the downfall of the company. All roads it seem lead to the imminent death of VW...


Yes, that is exactly the point.

VW have left if very late to go for this.

Now they are in panic mode.

If you study company failures you will find exactly this kind of behaviour. First ignore and underestimate your competitor, sit on your complacent laurels and then suddenly find folk like what your competitor has and when projecting forward the whole calamity becomes clear. So they go at it hammer and tongs and the chance of making serious errors climbs fast.

It is extremely non-trivial and very hard to change the direction of an established industry and compete with upstarts. Most times the legacy business gets creamed.

What I am seeing is exactly what I have been expecting since Tesla started selling BEV.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265257

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 11:10 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:VW have left if very late to go for this.

Now they are in panic mode.


You do understand that endlessly repeating something doesn't make it true don't you?

Of course it looks to you like VW have left it late, because you point blank refuse to acknowledge any work they have done up to this point!

There are a number of factors which have influenced VW's timing, a lack of foresight is not one of them. We're on the verge of their being a decent BEV market to dominate, a burgeoning BEV infrastructure, and regulatory restrictions which make not being in BEV's very expensive. Timing, is, as they say, everything.

odysseus2000 wrote:Now they are in panic mode.


Steady your quivering knees Ody, you are projecting.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265259

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 11:33 pm

BobbyD
You do understand that endlessly repeating something doesn't make it true don't you?

Of course it looks to you like VW have left it late, because you point blank refuse to acknowledge any work they have done up to this point!

There are a number of factors which have influenced VW's timing, a lack of foresight is not one of them. We're on the verge of their being a decent BEV market to dominate, a burgeoning BEV infrastructure, and regulatory restrictions which make not being in BEV's very expensive. Timing, is, as they say, everything.


This game is played at two levels.

Game 1) There is the press-release, intellectual game which is like any propaganda set out to make things look as good as possible and that everything is flowing in a calculated and sensible manner. This is designed to be helpful and supportive of shareholders, politicians etc. It is however, a game of smoke and mirrors created by ad agencies to make their customer look good and will mean nothing if game 2 is lost.

Game 2) This is the practical game of what is and has been done. Here we still see VW talking making small numbers of BEV and continuing to flog as much legacy as possible. Meanwhile Fritz et al who works in some part of VW that is needed for legacy, but not for BEV is getting worried and is seeking help from politicians and unions because he/she sees their job is currently strong but all of the press releases about BEV make him or her think the job may melt like snow in the sun, leaving him/her with nowt.

Management have to play game 1, but its game 2 that matters and changing a mature industry like legacy auto to BEV is going to be a very serious challenge and for now they haven't really started.

Most investors will be happy thinking of game 1 and this will be endlessly repeated and fed to shareholders, but if things go wrong with game 2 the same shareholders will get super militant and feel at best mislead as reality and game 1 will diverge.

In my experience any shareholder who follows game 1 is asking to get their stake miniaturised.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265273

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 2:35 am

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) new ID.3 electric vehicle will be 40% cheaper to build than the electric version of its Golf model, Chief Executive Herbert Diess told investors on Monday.

The battery in the new ID.3 can be used to add structural rigidity to the body and the modular layout of the battery allows for advantages in packaging and economies of scale.

“If you focus on an electric platform, all in all it accounts for a 40% reduction against the predecessor electric Golf,” Diess said. “Most of it from cells and the battery system. Around 5-10% comes from dedicating an entire plant to electric vehicles.”

This cost reduction is one of the reasons that Volkswagen is confident it can shift from making combustion-engined to electric cars without eroding the company’s profit margin, VW said.


- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volk ... ce=twitter

Volkswagen continues to step up the pace of its electric offensive: The ID.3 will be assembled at the Gläserne Manufaktur in Dresden in addition to the Zwickau plant. This was announced today by Gunnar Killian, Volkswagen AG Board Member for Human Resources, at a works meeting in Dresden.

...Group Board Member, Gunnar Kilian, underscored: “The decision to bring the ID. family to Dresden lays a solid foundation for the future of this location in Saxony. Employment levels remain stable. And at the same time, we are stepping up the pace for e-mobility.



- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2020-5582

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265274

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 2:44 am

odysseus2000 wrote:This game is played at two levels.


Ah, you mean the Twitter/Reality duality? I understand that's a problem for some companies.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265314

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 9:20 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:This game is played at two levels.


Ah, you mean the Twitter/Reality duality? I understand that's a problem for some companies.


No I mean the propaganda & the reality, something that has existed at least since written records were created by the ancients.

Most people start out believing the propaganda as that is what School teaches people to do. Then in the by & by usually when all the propaganda has cost an individual a lot of money they realise they have been had & become wary & intolerant of the rubbish that comes out from the minds of PR companies.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265345

Postby dealtn » November 19th, 2019, 10:16 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
It is extremely non-trivial and very hard to change the direction of an established industry and compete with upstarts. Most times the legacy business gets creamed.



This statement is so far from being true. There is a massive "survivor bias" in looking at history in this way. The vast majority of times "established" triumphs over "upstart" but the vanquished is forgotten, or becomes nothing but a very minor footnote in history. It is only the rare cases where upstarts genuinely revolutionise and extinguish the established that we remember, and incorrectly form the basis for such ludicrous claims.

History will tell whether Tesla is such a case, or an interesting footnote, not somebody's current projection or prediction.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265360

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 10:37 am

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
It is extremely non-trivial and very hard to change the direction of an established industry and compete with upstarts. Most times the legacy business gets creamed.



This statement is so far from being true. There is a massive "survivor bias" in looking at history in this way. The vast majority of times "established" triumphs over "upstart" but the vanquished is forgotten, or becomes nothing but a very minor footnote in history. It is only the rare cases where upstarts genuinely revolutionise and extinguish the established that we remember, and incorrectly form the basis for such ludicrous claims.

History will tell whether Tesla is such a case, or an interesting footnote, not somebody's current projection or prediction.


Yes, but you have to have context.

A new product that is little different to a legacy will usually get killed.

A new product that is very different and better than legacy is likely to triumph.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265364

Postby dealtn » November 19th, 2019, 10:44 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
It is extremely non-trivial and very hard to change the direction of an established industry and compete with upstarts. Most times the legacy business gets creamed.



This statement is so far from being true. There is a massive "survivor bias" in looking at history in this way. The vast majority of times "established" triumphs over "upstart" but the vanquished is forgotten, or becomes nothing but a very minor footnote in history. It is only the rare cases where upstarts genuinely revolutionise and extinguish the established that we remember, and incorrectly form the basis for such ludicrous claims.

History will tell whether Tesla is such a case, or an interesting footnote, not somebody's current projection or prediction.


Yes, but you have to have context.

A new product that is little different to a legacy will usually get killed.

A new product that is very different and better than legacy is likely to triumph.

Regards,


So a box with four wheels which is pretty much the same as the established box with four wheel product, and isn't demonstrably "better" on many measurements than what it is trying to replace (and is often worse), fits your "context" criteria does it?

History will be the judge as I say, not anyone on this board with their predictions.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265425

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 1:14 pm

dealtn
So a box with four wheels which is pretty much the same as the established box with four wheel product, and isn't demonstrably "better" on many measurements than what it is trying to replace (and is often worse), fits your "context" criteria does it?

History will be the judge as I say, not anyone on this board with their predictions.


If you don't understand how demonstrably different a BEV is to an ICE then you will never get this.

If you don't understand how BEV fits into the environment and health issues of the political classes you will never get this.

If you don't understand the physics of BEV and of ICE you will never get this.

If you haven't driven a BEV and been blown away by how it far exceeds any ICE car in every respect then again you will never get this.

If you want anymore hints then the fact that VW are having to go on the rhetoric offensive to evangelise how much better BEV is to ICE then ...

Yes, history will be the judge, in the mean time there have been huge profits to make from Tesla, long and short, and likely imho a ton more coming.

BEV are like coal was to the first Industrial Revolution, now we have hardly begun the robotics and AI revolutions which will be electrically powered unless something new comes out of research labs, that will imho dwarf even the internet in their effects and in the profits investors will make. The question now is not whether huge change is coming but whether it is evolutionary, i.e. goodbye humans, or just revolutionary. I don't know the answer.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265456

Postby dealtn » November 19th, 2019, 2:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn
So a box with four wheels which is pretty much the same as the established box with four wheel product, and isn't demonstrably "better" on many measurements than what it is trying to replace (and is often worse), fits your "context" criteria does it?

History will be the judge as I say, not anyone on this board with their predictions.


If you don't understand how demonstrably different a BEV is to an ICE then you will never get this.

If you don't understand how BEV fits into the environment and health issues of the political classes you will never get this.

If you don't understand the physics of BEV and of ICE you will never get this.

If you haven't driven a BEV and been blown away by how it far exceeds any ICE car in every respect then again you will never get this.

If you want anymore hints then the fact that VW are having to go on the rhetoric offensive to evangelise how much better BEV is to ICE then ...

Yes, history will be the judge, in the mean time there have been huge profits to make from Tesla, long and short, and likely imho a ton more coming.

BEV are like coal was to the first Industrial Revolution, now we have hardly begun the robotics and AI revolutions which will be electrically powered unless something new comes out of research labs, that will imho dwarf even the internet in their effects and in the profits investors will make. The question now is not whether huge change is coming but whether it is evolutionary, i.e. goodbye humans, or just revolutionary. I don't know the answer.

Regards,


Railways replaced canals. Canals and rivers are still use today. Trains replaced boats, boats are still used today. Some companies that built boats changed direction and made trains (and cars). Some bridge builders and engineers transitioned from canals to building bridges for the railway infrastructure. Boats are still a big means of transport as, funnily enough railways found it hard to build networks that crossed seas and oceans (in the main). Many boat builders stayed in business by transitioning from canal barges to ocean going barges and craft.

Crucially not every innovating company in the "new" industry succeeded, and many of the "old" survived (and thrived).

Now I can't (nor can I imagine most) see the ICE to BEV change as anywhere near as fundamental as "horses to cars", or "canals to railways" was. It's much more "box with four wheels" with one type of engine to "box with four wheels" with a different type of engine. But even if it wasn't it doesn't follow that old, let's call it VW, is doomed and panicking, and new, let's call it Tesla, is obviously going to thrive.

Now if in addition to change in power type, new transport transforms into "driverless" and maybe "flight (or 3D travel)" that is a fundamental change, and Tesla might be ahead in this game, but that change may well not be exclusive and impossible for ICE technology. Nor are Tesla guaranteed to succeed here, and as well as competing with old "ICE" type providers, there are also "new economy" companies (many of whom are currently profitable, and cash flow positive, to a magnitude greater than Tesla).

I'm afraid it's you that doesn't "get it".

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265538

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 6:41 pm

dealtn wrote:Railways replaced canals. Canals and rivers are still use today. Trains replaced boats, boats are still used today. Some companies that built boats changed direction and made trains (and cars). Some bridge builders and engineers transitioned from canals to building bridges for the railway infrastructure. Boats are still a big means of transport as, funnily enough railways found it hard to build networks that crossed seas and oceans (in the main). Many boat builders stayed in business by transitioning from canal barges to ocean going barges and craft.

Crucially not every innovating company in the "new" industry succeeded, and many of the "old" survived (and thrived).


Additionally, to mine our current industry of discussion a little further I suspect the technology that killed a lot of carriage makers wasn't the petrol engine, but mass production which completely changed the nature of the market and the requirements for a company to remain viable. Many carriage makers went from carts to cars, notably Studebaker, but the age of the automobile has coincided with the progression of manufacturing technology which has seen an inexorable change from many smaller companies to fewer larger companies resulting in the failure or absorption of most companies which built cars regardless of their origins, and in many cases despite vast amounts of public subsidy.

It is notable that before he realised that he didn't know more about manufacturing than the traditional automotive industry, and before this became apparent to all and sundry through the quantity and quality of Tesla's production, Musk's initial plan for world domination revolved around being able to manufacture BEV's more efficiently than anyone else. One tent later and that plan currently rests on claims of an autonomous fleet of Tesla taxis taking to our roads in the next 60 weeks. Whether this will occur before or after their 2017 attempt to drive coast to coast in the US under full autonomous control remains to be seen, but I would suggest his initial instinct was correct - if you want to carve out a solidified position in the volume car market you need to nail manufacture, something we know through the carcasses which litter automotive history is a lot harder than it looks. Given the number of mistakes they have made, if those inside Tesla have been learning lessons rather than drowning their sorrows in Tesla Kool-aid like their devotees outside the company they might just have a chance.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265541

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 6:45 pm

Hi dealt

I am, interested in investing in stuff that makes money via growth, not stuff that limps along as sorry yesterdays story.

The boom time for the railways and there investors was when Hudson was at his peak and lines were being built here there and everywhere. Fortunes were made, then there was over supply and the whole thing crashed and a lot had to be rescued by the politicians. Still they went along and were heavily used in the 1st and 2nd wars and then Dr. Beeching looked them over and closed a lot down as they were not competitive with road transport. They became utility type franchise and did Branson and others no harm, but as an investible growth business they were done by the mid 1850’s the game was over and it had been propped up as a pyramid for a few years before then.

The canals were fabulous until the railways came and then they became sorry yesterdays story.

Yes, a BEV Tesla is just a box with 4 wheels that goes places, but it does so for a lot less money for fuel, its software in continually updated and it is allowed into places that forbid ice engines due to emissions. Meanwhile it has much better performance is safer as tested etc etc. Saying a BEV Tesla is like a ICE car is like saying a Blackberry is like an iPhone which is what Blackberry said and yet they lost most of their market share and limp along as sorry yesterdays tech. Ditto Nokia et al

As things now are a Tesla BEV is like an iPhone to a blackberry and with all the associated cleaner emissions etc. Shortly there will be numerous upgrades including super capacitors for retardation and acceleration giving an even greater edge over ICE and likely more and much improved computer driving.

VW have finally realised what is going on and that there legacy business at least the fig leaf of them saying they are going electric when they still want to run legacy for as long as possible. But the trouble for them is that they have to invest now in the new stuff and that has two consequences: 1) Write offs early of all the capex in legacy, 2) Labour troubles.

Dyson has just shown that making an electric car isn’t easy and VW et al will now have to re-train lots of workers and people hate change and so this becomes expensive work and meanwhile Tesla is now near Berlin and poaching all the key staff. Legacy workers will want all manner of compensations for having to re-train. Folk in any business do not like having to do new stuff, they will want more money, time off for courses, expenses etc. Dealing with labour is always difficult. It is not a surprise that of all Lord Sugar’s apprentices it Ricky Martin with his recruitment business that is making the most dosh. If you have to recruit you are always at a a disadvantage. Does the prospective employee have good references because their existing employer wants them gone, the ones with poor references because the existing company doesn’t want to lose them? Recruiting is hard and has to be done well as getting it wrong in important folk can substantially hurt the bottom line. Anyone with particularly useful skills will need to be treated very well and if they still decide to go elsewhere someone will they have to be trained by them before they go. This is not a small number of folk but the entire work force. There will be murderous costs for legacy auto and I expect BMW to be the first needing government money as their balance sheet is weak.

Anyhow history will tell us what happens in the by and by, but I don’t care that much as Tesla has been very very good to my p&l. If they fail here I will still have done well, but I expect them to make a whole lot of investors rich from here.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265543

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 6:48 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dealtn wrote:Railways replaced canals. Canals and rivers are still use today. Trains replaced boats, boats are still used today. Some companies that built boats changed direction and made trains (and cars). Some bridge builders and engineers transitioned from canals to building bridges for the railway infrastructure. Boats are still a big means of transport as, funnily enough railways found it hard to build networks that crossed seas and oceans (in the main). Many boat builders stayed in business by transitioning from canal barges to ocean going barges and craft.

Crucially not every innovating company in the "new" industry succeeded, and many of the "old" survived (and thrived).


Additionally, to mine our current industry of discussion a little further I suspect the technology that killed a lot of carriage makers wasn't the petrol engine, but mass production which completely changed the nature of the market and the requirements for a company to remain viable. Many carriage makers went from carts to cars, notably Studebaker, but the age of the automobile has coincided with the progression of manufacturing technology which has seen an inexorable change from many smaller companies to fewer larger companies resulting in the failure or absorption of most companies which built cars regardless of their origins, and in many cases despite vast amounts of public subsidy.

It is notable that before he realised that he didn't know more about manufacturing than the traditional automotive industry, and before this became apparent to all and sundry through the quantity and quality of Tesla's production, Musk's initial plan for world domination revolved around being able to manufacture BEV's more efficiently than anyone else. One tent later and that plan currently rests on claims of an autonomous fleet of Tesla taxis taking to our roads in the next 60 weeks. Whether this will occur before or after their 2017 attempt to drive coast to coast in the US under full autonomous control remains to be seen, but I would suggest his initial instinct was correct - if you want to carve out a solidified position in the volume car market you need to nail manufacture, something we know through the carcasses which litter automotive history is a lot harder than it looks. Given the number of mistakes they have made, if those inside Tesla have been learning lessons rather than drowning their sorrows in Tesla Kool-aid like their devotees outside the company they might just have a chance.


Oh dear you do seem to lack objectivity here.

Have you been looking at the Munroe tear downs? Have you researched the new casting tech for body panels, the new drying tech for batteries.the ...

Tesla are changing manufacturing as we know it and this will give them yet another advantage over legacy especially in their two new factories.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265561

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 7:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Oh dear you do seem to lack objectivity here.


...!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265592

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 9:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Dyson has just shown that making an electric car isn’t easy and VW et al will now have to re-train lots of workers and people hate change and so this becomes expensive work and meanwhile Tesla is now near Berlin and poaching all the key staff. Legacy workers will want all manner of compensations for having to re-train. Folk in any business do not like having to do new stuff, they will want more money, time off for courses, expenses etc. Dealing with labour is always difficult.




Porsche employees fought to have Taycan production in Zuffenhausen

Employees funded 25% of the 700 million euro investment needed to open the Porsche Taycan factory.


- https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2020 ... stuttgart/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265618

Postby odysseus2000 » November 19th, 2019, 10:49 pm

BobbyD
Porsche employees fought to have Taycan production in Zuffenhausen

Employees funded 25% of the 700 million euro investment needed to open the Porsche Taycan factory.


- https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2020 ... stuttgart/


This is hilarious, a lovely concoction of love for cars and self sacrifice and VW management and worker love one another and the work they do with such a passion that they will sacrifice their living standards to keep the dream alive.

Reality: Workers and management realise they have screwed up and are now in full panic mode to save their incomes, doing anything to try and keep their jobs and when new problems arise and VW management ask for even more the workers will eventually say no.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265627

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 11:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Legacy workers will want all manner of compensations for having to re-train. Folk in any business do not like having to do new stuff, they will want more money, time off for courses, expenses etc. Dealing with labour is always difficult.


odysseus2000 wrote:Reality: Workers and management realise they have screwed up and are now in full panic mode to save their incomes, doing anything to try and keep their jobs and when new problems arise and VW management ask for even more the workers will eventually say no.


Make your mind up...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265679

Postby odysseus2000 » November 20th, 2019, 8:56 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Legacy workers will want all manner of compensations for having to re-train. Folk in any business do not like having to do new stuff, they will want more money, time off for courses, expenses etc. Dealing with labour is always difficult.


odysseus2000 wrote:Reality: Workers and management realise they have screwed up and are now in full panic mode to save their incomes, doing anything to try and keep their jobs and when new problems arise and VW management ask for even more the workers will eventually say no.


Make your mind up...


In one factory management & workers have created a deal, but BEV production will mean wholesale change across the entire German auto industry & there will be labour troubles, especially when people have to be sacked.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265886

Postby BobbyD » November 20th, 2019, 9:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Legacy workers will want all manner of compensations for having to re-train. Folk in any business do not like having to do new stuff, they will want more money, time off for courses, expenses etc. Dealing with labour is always difficult.


odysseus2000 wrote:Reality: Workers and management realise they have screwed up and are now in full panic mode to save their incomes, doing anything to try and keep their jobs and when new problems arise and VW management ask for even more the workers will eventually say no.


Make your mind up...


In one factory management & workers have created a deal, but BEV production will mean wholesale change across the entire German auto industry & there will be labour troubles, especially when people have to be sacked.

Regards,


So something which actually happened vs. another of your always completely reliable predictions...


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