I suspect self-driving cars are coming. It's just a question of which decade - 20s or 30s (my money is on the '20's but the second half...).
Three reasons:
#1 safety. When self driving cars can be demonstrated to be safer than human-driven cars, I suspect there will be incredible pressure to force humans off the road. Each human-caused RTA will add to that pressure.
#2 Cost. As each teenager reaches the legal driving age, the cost (to them) of insurance, learning to drive and passing a test are significant. How much more attractive is a self-driving car with low insurance and no learning or effort required to use it**. For those of us who already hold a license, the attractions of being able to sleep (fully reclining seat option for me) watch a movie or even finish off some work would make it attractive. Oh, and it's safer and lower insurance premiums.
#3 Regulation. Banning humans from sections of road (accident black spots), parking systems that shuffle cars to minimise space (so driverless cars only, thank you) possible government regulation making human drivers who have accidents restricted to driverless car usage, government or road agencies fitting "smart" speed limits which the driverless car will obey - thus maximising traffic flow; there are myriad possibilities to organise, optimise, control and contain costs, once the human is no longer in control.
None of the above impacts ownership. I own a car for the convenience and cost management. It's cheaper than hiring ad-hoc for the usage I make of it, and any additional trips are almost free*. To use a driverless pool car it would have to be always available and significantly cheaper than the current situation of personal ownership. When I compare using my car versus traveling by train, typically I look at the fuel cost vs the ticket price. If it's close I might throw in the parking charges, but emotionally I'd rather be in my car-bubble than in a train carriage, even if the true cost of the car journey is greater. For driverless cars, unless there is a significant saving, I suspect most people will still want their personal space and the guarantee of availability that a car on the drive brings.
I suspect we'll see a hybrid market: dealerships may operate a fleet of "uber-style" driverless cars, as perhaps would the big leasing companies. Low mileage, irregular usage owners might switch, but regular users (school run, daily commute, busy social life) might stay with direct ownership.
Which brings us back to Tesla. Migrating to driverless cars, assuming no retro-fit option, will take years. Even with a scrappage scheme, replacing the current fleet is not a quick task. One or other of the car makers may have the lead at any point, but, like tobacco and vaping, I'd expect legacy car makers to be planning for the switchover. Maximising revenue on existing plant may be important, but ensuring they are in the game long term has to be a strategic imperitive. I'm sure every boardroom has had the "look at what Apple did to Nokia" conversation, as well as the "Kodak moment" discussion. No CEO wants to be the next household example of industrial dinosaur hubris...
Tesla may well make it as a mainstream player (I hope they do) but it's a massive leap of faith to assume that they will not only survive, not only prosper, but in addition wipe out the competition. Cars are bought for so many different reasons and Tesla barely scratches the surface of the carbuying logic.
Incidentally, James Dyson was supposed to be launching his designed-from-the-ground-up electric car at some point.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... c-car-2020 Apart from not being in the USA, all the arguments in favour of Tesla apply, but with a serious engineer at the helm. Ditto battery technology. The electric car and the driverless car are still in their infancy, with associated mortality rates and unexpected lineage.
VRD
*Fuel, but that's not associated with the specific journey, and depreciation, wear and tear are likewise not usually considered as a per-mile cost when driving, only as an accounting afterthought for most people (IME).
**The current requirement to have a driver hovering over the controls, alert and ready to take over at the drop of a hat is, IMHO, ludicrous. When the technology is proven, I expect that constraint to be removed.