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Musk endeavours

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Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#246810

Postby Howard » August 24th, 2019, 7:58 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Which put their own spin on things, quoting x numbers of members doesn't mean anything.

,


Which is however exactly the periodical commonly read by people who aren't car mad but like something nice and are prepared to spend £30k plus on it....


Yes, it is & I commend Which for having created this market & how they continue to exploit it & have a loyal base who believe what they are being told.

It is imho a very similar franchise to the BBC & I expect both of them to run out of punters as many folk now are moving towards online experiences & are leasing expensive products.

Regards,


The "loyal base" you refer to are the people doing the telling. "Which"are just playing back the views of more than 40,000 new and nearly new car owners. They actually drive the cars they are reporting on.

Generally the "Which" results agree with Consumer Reports in the USA. They think the reliability of Teslas is poor too. But they only survey around half a million members so small beer compared with wacky Youtubers' views. :)

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#246823

Postby odysseus2000 » August 24th, 2019, 10:17 pm

My belief re Which is that

1 They slant their editorial to what ever is the inhouse policy

2 The folk who subscribe to Which are not typical Tesla buyers & as such have different persoective to Tesla buyers.

However, what ever anyone thinks about reviews etc, it is car sales that matter.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246839

Postby BobbyD » August 25th, 2019, 2:47 am

Tesla Agrees to Buy LG Batteries for Vehicles Made in China

The supply agreement isn’t exclusive to LG Chem, the people said, meaning Tesla could procure batteries from other suppliers as the Model 3 maker prepares to start production in China later this year, part of the EV pioneer’s push into what is the world’s biggest market for new-energy vehicles.

Tesla plans to use multiple battery suppliers for its China-made cars, the people said, and has also been in talks with top Chinese battery producer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. about a supply deal, Bloomberg reported in March. Tesla has a long-standing relationship with Japan’s Panasonic Corp., which makes batteries with the carmaker in Nevada.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... na-factory

Interesting choice bearing in mind LG threatened to stop supplying VW if VW built their own battery plant...

Tesla, Ford have the most to lose among US carmakers on China’s new round of tariffs

Tesla and Ford are among the top exporters of U.S.-produced vehicles to China along with BMW and Daimler/Mercedes-Benz.

While General Motors and others have significant sales in China, they have local production facilities and joint ventures with Chinese companies that help shield them from tariffs.

Tesla would avoid much of the tariff hike once it completes construction of its Gigafactory 3 plant in Shanghai.

...
Image

Image

Tesla shares on Friday closed down 4.8% at $211.40, while Ford dropped 3% to $8.77.


- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/tesla-f ... riffs.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246848

Postby vrdiver » August 25th, 2019, 8:47 am

BobbyD wrote:Image

I'm being a bit slow this morning. What does "Share of U.S.-made cars sold in China" actually mean? The graph shows Tesla with 100%, which makes me think my initial understanding (which manufacturer has what % of the US-produced car market in China) can't be correct, or that the graph is erroneous...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246851

Postby odysseus2000 » August 25th, 2019, 9:01 am

I presume it means that all of the Tesla is made in the US using parts imported from many places including China, but would be seen as 100% US made for tariffs. Other makers have local Chinese supply & cars are assembled there, so would pay less tariffs. In the by & by with Giga factory 2 Tesla will become tariff free for all China made cars sold in China.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246870

Postby BobbyD » August 25th, 2019, 11:25 am

vrdiver wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Image

I'm being a bit slow this morning. What does "Share of U.S.-made cars sold in China" actually mean? The graph shows Tesla with 100%, which makes me think my initial understanding (which manufacturer has what % of the US-produced car market in China) can't be correct, or that the graph is erroneous...


It is a bad title. I assumed it to mean % of cars sold in China which counted as US built, as you might get an idea of from comparing company's Chinese manufacturing figures with their Chinese sales figures and looking at what they export from the US.

Chinese manufacturing and sales figures, June 2019:

Top Brands (Sales)

Passenger Vehicles

# Brand Jun YTD YTDShare

1 Volkswagen 236,715 -8% 1,431,398 -8% 14%
2 Honda 137,212 13% 758,494 14% 7%
3 Toyota 130,678 16% 730,761 13% 7%
4 Nissan 102,147 -1% 550,008 -1% 5%
5 Geely 80,477 -32% 591,668 -18% 6%
6 Buick 69,856 -5% 439,322 -15% 4%
7 Changan 67,435 4% 378,184 -22% 4%
8 Hyundai 63,079 -28% 319,424 -16% 3%
9 Mercedes-Benz 59,351 2% 359,970 3% 3%
10 Audi 59,012 29% 294,301 -7% 3%
11 BMW 55,265 24% 345,561 20% 3%
12 Chevrolet 49,386 -6% 280,481 -15% 3%
13 Beijing 47,855 4% 163,134 -36% 2%
14 Haval 45,256 7% 352,872 8% 3%
15 Trumpchi 44,124 19% 186,947 -30% 2%
16 BYD 38,013 3% 223,180 1% 2%
17 Baojun 35,735 -43% 249,576 -47% 2%
18 Chery 34,658 -1% 190,154 -9% 2%
19 Dongfeng 32,874 25% 170,355 -33% 2%
20 Roewe 30,727 -18% 204,494 -15% 2%

PV Total 1,829,042 -4% 10,519,059 -13% 87%

Commercial Vehicles

# Brand Jun YTD YTDShare

1 Wuling 45,488 -34% 315,728 -7% 20%
2 Foton 34,080 4% 201,892 11% 13%
3 Changan 22,617 -36% 160,283 -17% 10%
4 Dongfeng 19,284 -10% 137,334 0% 9%
5 Jinbei 12,132 8% 68,476 3% 4%
6 JMC 11,945 -44% 75,045 -20% 5%
7 JAC 9,956 -24% 108,872 -5% 7%
8 Great Wall 7,166 -19% 64,878 0% 4%
9 Isuzu 6,865 -17% 33,599 -5% 2%
10 Maxus 6,309 -28% 39,346 -20% 2%

CV Total 231,047 -24% 1,606,503 -5% 13%

Top Manufactures (Production)

# Manufacturer Jun YTD YTDShare

Passenger Vehicle

1 Volkswagen 236,963 -15% 1,393,650 -10% 13%
2 Honda 136,242 -2% 742,231 3% 7%
3 Toyota 120,560 8% 657,619 12% 6%
4 Nissan 91,749 -15% 557,100 0% 5%
5 Geely 81,219 -37% 596,201 -15% 6%
6 Buick 73,562 -1% 422,355 -17% 4%
7 Changan 59,566 8% 398,705 -10% 4%
8 Chevrolet 50,744 6% 279,651 -15% 3%
9 Beijing 44,926 16% 162,518 -33% 2%
10 Haval 44,437 7% 352,403 10% 3%
11 Mercedes-Benz 43,843 3% 283,771 14% 3%
12 Audi 42,894 -21% 266,973 -13% 3%
13 BMW 36,783 20% 245,001 16% 2%
14 Chery 36,101 -4% 191,141 -8% 2%
15 Hyundai 35,300 -53% 314,000 -16% 3%
16 Roewe 34,250 -17% 194,612 -25% 2%
17 BYD 33,087 -13% 217,449 -3% 2%
18 Dongfeng 26,878 20% 157,267 -37% 1%
19 Baojun 23,461 -64% 248,207 -52% 2%
20 Skoda 22,832 -45% 110,862 -43% 1%

CV Total1,577,781 -17% 9,796,935 -16% 86%

Commercial Vehicle

1 Wuling 41,249 -15% 319,550 5% 20%
2 Foton 32,718 2% 203,352 13% 13%
3 Dongfeng 19,193 -9% 132,873 -4% 8%
4 Changan 17,463 -48% 155,291 -11% 10%
5 Jinbei 13,612 11% 71,631 9% 4%
6 JMC 11,019 -45% 71,978 -23% 4%
7 JAC 9,690 -26% 106,732 -1% 7%
8 Great Wall 7,452 -18% 66,784 -3% 4%
9 Maxus 6,387 -25% 38,361 -20% 2%
10 Ford 5,536 -39% 34,443 -20% 2%

PV Total 211,953 -23% 1,592,937 -1% 14%


-https://lmc-auto.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/LMCA-China-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Update-July-2019.pdf

The figures for % cars sold in China which count as US built aren't necessarily going to be stable though as companies adjust to limit their exposure to Trump's trade war, for instance:

BMW exported vehicles valued at $8.4B from U.S. plant in 2018

For the fifth consecutive year, BMW is the largest vehicle exporter in the U.S. by value, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

BMW’s sprawling factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina, exported 234,689 X-series crossovers in 2018 valued at more than $8.4 billion.

The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is affecting the plant. The two countries ratcheted up automotive duties last year by way of retaliatory tariffs.

China is the biggest export market for the plant, which employs more than 11,000 workers. Nearly a third of that export volume was headed to China.

Last year, BMW stopped exporting the X3 from the U.S. to China amid the escalating trade row, moving production to plants in Rosslyn, South Africa, and Shenyang, China.

Total exports to China in 2018 were 48,537 units, slightly more than 20 percent of the total vehicle exports from the plant. China exports were down about 40 percent from 2017, primarily because of X3 production was moved in May 2018.


- https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... plant-2018

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#246877

Postby Howard » August 25th, 2019, 12:37 pm

I'm finding this guy's videos really interesting as he is showing what it is really like to drive a Model 3. He's not a typical luxury car driver however, but he is having some fun with his Model 3 performance at a track day.

Sorry to be a cynic (and, yes an automotive snob :oops: ). He’s delighted to be able to overtake an elderly Vauxhall Nova and a Honda Accord :( .

When I went to a couple of track days I saw off a few Lotuses and Porsches. Mind you I was lucky enough to be driving (someone else's) Ferrari and Porsche. ;)

He ran his battery down completely, using 250 miles range in half an hour. Not sure what this says about the range of a Model 3 if pushed fairly hard on a motorway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fzPWJfTmnY&t=1597s

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246879

Postby Howard » August 25th, 2019, 12:50 pm

And worth looking at "Tesla Driver" testing Autopilot. He's made a three videos which show the huge limitations of this during normal driving in Sunderland and Newcastle and near Bath.

Amazingly to try and get Autopilot to work better, he decided to drive through Newcastle at 3.00am when there was no traffic.

Sadly, this attempt shows it's serious limitations even when there is hardly any traffic on the road. Surely you would agree if you watch these three videos it is just not suitable for a built up environment or a motorway in the UK? As he says "it's dangerous".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pak8sQVvbE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pak8sQVvbE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT6XU0bwtPs

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246887

Postby BobbyD » August 25th, 2019, 1:45 pm

Howard wrote:He ran his battery down completely, using 250 miles range in half an hour. Not sure what this says about the range of a Model 3 if pushed fairly hard on a motorway.


This is the guy who ordered a M3 with all the options for £60k+? So we're looking at 75kWh/329mi WLTP doing from what I saw between 50 and 110. If he was averaging 80, then he'd have killed his battery in around 40 miles, lets say 50 to be generous... Mind you he did comment on the amount of regen he was getting, which also points to the fact he's doing a lot of speeding up and slowing down which probably doesn't translate so well to a motorway use comparison. I wish somebody would take an M3 to Nardo to see how it compares to the Taycan's 2128 miles in 24 hours though...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246890

Postby odysseus2000 » August 25th, 2019, 2:12 pm

Howard wrote:I'm finding this guy's videos really interesting as he is showing what it is really like to drive a Model 3. He's not a typical luxury car driver however, but he is having some fun with his Model 3 performance at a track day.

Sorry to be a cynic (and, yes an automotive snob :oops: ). He’s delighted to be able to overtake an elderly Vauxhall Nova and a Honda Accord :( .

When I went to a couple of track days I saw off a few Lotuses and Porsches. Mind you I was lucky enough to be driving (someone else's) Ferrari and Porsche. ;)

He ran his battery down completely, using 250 miles range in half an hour. Not sure what this says about the range of a Model 3 if pushed fairly hard on a motorway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fzPWJfTmnY&t=1597s

regards


Howard


Ha ha, carry on like this and you will be ordering your own 3.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246901

Postby ReformedCharacter » August 25th, 2019, 3:38 pm

Howard wrote:
Sadly, this attempt shows it's serious limitations even when there is hardly any traffic on the road. Surely you would agree if you watch these three videos it is just not suitable for a built up environment or a motorway in the UK? As he says "it's dangerous".

regards

Howard

Thanks for the links, I watched with interest. I have to conclude that Autopilot is pretty useless in the UK. Of course it can be fine tuned but I have serious doubts that this technology can make a vehicle autonomous, at the moment the problems are just too difficult. My guess FWIW is that truly autonomous vehicles cannot be developed without:

- Inter-vehicle communication.
- Road 'furniture' eg traffic lights, hazards etc., communication with vehicles. A vehicle that cannot understand traffic lights for example, won't be able to be used autonomously but I don't think it would be technically difficult to do that. A 'joined-up' system rather than 'smart' individual vehicles will be needed for true autonomy IMO.

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246913

Postby BobbyD » August 25th, 2019, 4:53 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
Howard wrote:
Sadly, this attempt shows it's serious limitations even when there is hardly any traffic on the road. Surely you would agree if you watch these three videos it is just not suitable for a built up environment or a motorway in the UK? As he says "it's dangerous".

regards

Howard

Thanks for the links, I watched with interest. I have to conclude that Autopilot is pretty useless in the UK. Of course it can be fine tuned but I have serious doubts that this technology can make a vehicle autonomous, at the moment the problems are just too difficult. My guess FWIW is that truly autonomous vehicles cannot be developed without:

- Inter-vehicle communication.
- Road 'furniture' eg traffic lights, hazards etc., communication with vehicles. A vehicle that cannot understand traffic lights for example, won't be able to be used autonomously but I don't think it would be technically difficult to do that. A 'joined-up' system rather than 'smart' individual vehicles will be needed for true autonomy IMO.

RC


Whilst that is the model of AD I first came across courtesy of Delphi's (now Aptiv) vehicle to everything, and I think in many circumstances such as city centre junctions and motorways it would be silly not to incorporate it, partly as added functionality partly to add redundancy I don't think it's necessary to build an AD. I do however think Tesla are going the wrong way down a one way street to get there from a technological, an acceptance and a regulatory point of view and to base a judgement of the potential and limitations of AD on the performance of Tesla's overachieving cruise control would be a mistake.

Vehicle to infrastructure is used. Audi's traffic Light information for example makes networked traffic light information which will be available to AD's in the future visible to human drivers today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHgpATg-FQU

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Re: Musk endeavours

#246976

Postby BobbyD » August 25th, 2019, 11:17 pm

Amazon Joins Walmart in Saying Tesla Solar Panel Caught Fire

On Friday, Amazon.com Inc. said a June 2018 blaze on the roof of one of its warehouses in Redlands, California, involved a solar panel system that Tesla’s SolarCity division had installed. The Seattle-based retail giant said by email that it has since taken steps to protect its facilities and has no plans to install more Tesla systems.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... markets-vp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247035

Postby odysseus2000 » August 26th, 2019, 11:33 am

Tesla sales data from the month of July and earlier, quite interesting graphics within the video:

https://youtu.be/NpqWV9y9REM

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247041

Postby odysseus2000 » August 26th, 2019, 11:48 am

This is a super interesting comparison of Chinese EV to Tesla model 3 and at the end to estimates of model y v Chinese competitors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SiRc5z8eq4

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247043

Postby odysseus2000 » August 26th, 2019, 11:50 am

Sandy Munro talks electric, tons of interesting stuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93VJ1PEp6o

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247068

Postby BobbyD » August 26th, 2019, 1:54 pm

There's a documentary on Netflix called American Factory which ticks a few boxes of interest on this thread. Reused GM factory which was shuttered in 2008, culture clash experienced by Chinese company trying to open up manufacture in the States, and by american workers working for a Chinese company, the inherently socialist nature of the American workforce and the Nationalist Capitalism of their Chinese employers... oh, and the robots are coming, although the pro-union film makers who do a reasonably balanced job do put in a little card at the end giving the employment numbers at the plant when the film wrapped, even if they don't highlight the fact that despite automation they are twice the number announced when they reopened it.


FT has a reasonable review:

https://www.ft.com/content/d5fe4b3c-c4c ... 6ca66511c9

https://www.google.com/search?q=america ... e&ie=UTF-8

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247162

Postby odysseus2000 » August 26th, 2019, 11:28 pm

This is an interesting video based on a long time electric car convertors open letter on the conspiracy against Tesla. If you don't understand the vested interests range against Tesla this will educate & inform your views::

https://youtu.be/vfILTM_xcOE

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247210

Postby Howard » August 27th, 2019, 11:02 am

The costs of running a Model 3.

In this video Robert Llewellyn charges his brand new Tesla Model 3 at a Tesla charger on the M40 outside Oxford.

He is charged 24p per kWh. And he says he gets 4 miles to a kWh. So that's around £3 cost to travel 50 miles. In a similar sized diesel he'd get 50 mpg. So that's 4.55 litres at £1.30 a litre equals £6 cost.

So, if Tesla superchargers are used, the fuel cost for a Tesla Model 3 will be around half that of a typical mid-size diesel . And 200 miles charging takes half an hour.

The fuel costs for a motorist doing 20,000 miles a year will be £1,200 in a Tesla and £2,400 in a diesel.

The range of a typical BMW or Mercedes diesel will be more than 600 miles (I could get 700+miles from a 2012 E class 350CDi). So the diesel driver will have to fill up 33 times a year, taking, say 5 minutes per fill. Total time taken less than 3 hours per year.

The Tesla driver will need to charge 100 times if using Superchargers only. That’s 50 hours sitting around to save £1,200 in a year.

Yes, presumably the Tesla owner will buy themselves a home charger. Cost including fitting will be around £1,000. And they could install solar panels and a storage system to charge the car at night for £10,000?

Obviously there are excellent BIK benefits for a Tesla company car driver.

But how much does a Model 3 driver value their time? It would be presumptuous of me to suggest the value for others, but possibly someone who could afford a £50 - 60k car would consider their personal time to be worth £25 - £50 an hour. Especially if one is forced to drink rubbish coffee in a service station!

Does that make a Model 3 a pretty expensive car to run? And its extra capital costs could be substantial too.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpoaJ259FHE&t=688s

If you are busy, and value your personal time ;) , watch from around 11 minutes.

regards

Howard

PS Please do check my maths!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#247217

Postby Howard » August 27th, 2019, 11:38 am

By the way, those four new/nearly new Tesla Model 3s are still for sale on Autotrader.

As someone who sold a nice diesel Merc on Autotrader in literally less than 15 minutes last year for more than 98.5% of my asking price*. I’d say they are hanging around.

I’d guess the seller will have to accept an offer, perhaps 10% off or more as they aren’t selling?

Regards

Howard

*The purchaser did take a couple of days to arrange the finance. But I had two more eager purchasers in the wings if the sale fell through. And I had to cancel the ad after an hour or two to stop more email interest from potential buyers.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search ... -vehicles=


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