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Musk endeavours

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#197776

Postby dspp » January 30th, 2019, 10:55 pm

Q4 letter out

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/0b9134 ... 25c2cb0ae0

 Q4 operating income stable compared to Q3 at $414M, operating margin of 5.7%
 Operating cash flow less capex improved from Q3 to $910M in Q4
 Cash and cash equivalents of $3.7B at Q4-end, increased by $718M in Q4
 Q4 GAAP net income of $139M impacted by $54M non-cash charge
 Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin remained stable at >20% in Q4

In the second half of 2018, our cash position improved by $1.45
billion despite the scheduled repayment of a $230 million convertible
bond in Q4. We have sufficient cash on hand to comfortably settle in
cash our convertible bond that will mature in March 2019.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197791

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2019, 12:02 am

Just listened to the Tesla conference call.

If your interested in Tesla I commend the archived audio as being worth the 70 minutes of listen time.

There is a lot in the call, these are just a few things that stick in my mind:

There is no lack of demand for model 3, expectations are for 700k+ if the economy is good, 500k+ if recession.
The main focus is how to get the cars to customers, not demand which is large. Continue to expect exponential growth in
production.

Chinese factory is thought to be operational by end of year, financed at good rates from Chinese banks.

Model y has about 70 % compatibility with model 3, seen as being a much easier production start than was model 3

Storage business seen as growing twice as fast as autos and currently cell starved as demand for autos so large.

Panasonic CEO expects no battery reduction for Tesla. Cells are currently coming from US, China and Europe. Tesla continues self building of packs and modules.

Tesla service centres to become stockists of many popular components to reduce service times and will do some body shop stuff. Previous shipping of parts from China to US, then back to China to be replaced with China to China parts

A faulty Tesla will self call for service and loner car as soon as it detects a fault, owner can cancel.

Autonomy for complex multi story car parks and traffic light and junctions later this year. All the competitors to Tesla combined have less than 5% of Tesla real world autominous data that Tesla has. Tesla mission is dual focused: Environmental sustainable transport and autonomy to free up time and cut road deaths. Latest developments will have to be approved by regulators.

Push will be to lower costs and to provide Standard model 3 even if at the cost of lower margins. There is huge demand for lower priced car as current prices are too much for many who want to own a Tesla.

Currently no leasing of model 3 as this has -ve effect of accounts but expect later this year, leasing of S and X is around 20% for many quarters.

CFO retiring, replacement been with Tesla circa 9 years.

Layoffs were about cutting costs as this still seen as a fundamental focus

Cost of battery packs remains proprietary, but thought to be lowest in the world.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197795

Postby Howard » January 31st, 2019, 12:40 am

Ody - you seem pretty confident in stating:

"There is no lack of demand for model 3, expectations are for 700k+ if the economy is good, 500k+ if recession.
The main focus is how to get the cars to customers, not demand which is large. Continue to expect exponential growth in
production."


Today's update from Tesla states:

"The market opportunity for Model 3 in Europe and China exceeds North America based on the most recent sales of mid-sized premium sedans. Model 3 was designed from the outset for a global market, and shares more than 98% of its parts in common across its regional variants."

It seems as though Elon Musk is expecting sales of the model 3 to take off in Europe and China and quickly become greater than the USA. This seems very optimistic. And as dspp has commented above, the lengthier shipping time will have a cash flow effect. Balancing supply and demand across the Atlantic is the next challenge.

We should know in a matter of a few weeks as the first cars are on the way. I wonder if any are right-hand drive and what the UK selling prices are going to be?

Regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197797

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2019, 1:23 am

Howard wrote:Ody - you seem pretty confident in stating:

"There is no lack of demand for model 3, expectations are for 700k+ if the economy is good, 500k+ if recession.
The main focus is how to get the cars to customers, not demand which is large. Continue to expect exponential growth in
production."


Today's update from Tesla states:

"The market opportunity for Model 3 in Europe and China exceeds North America based on the most recent sales of mid-sized premium sedans. Model 3 was designed from the outset for a global market, and shares more than 98% of its parts in common across its regional variants."

It seems as though Elon Musk is expecting sales of the model 3 to take off in Europe and China and quickly become greater than the USA. This seems very optimistic. And as dspp has commented above, the lengthier shipping time will have a cash flow effect. Balancing supply and demand across the Atlantic is the next challenge.

We should know in a matter of a few weeks as the first cars are on the way. I wonder if any are right-hand drive and what the UK selling prices are going to be?

Regards

Howard


My confidence is based on what I heard on the conference call.

Right hand drive variants will be later this year.

Yes, it is about logistics now, not (if you believe Tesla) about demand. They will ship into Norway & Zebrugger if I remember correctly.

We shall see.

Personally I expect the model 3 will sell very well in Europe & in China because the competition to date is imho lame, but we shall know within a few months, although China is a priority to get ahead of potential tariffs, so they may ship more there.

As I understand it the reduction in supply of X & S is to make more model 3.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197835

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2019, 9:32 am

In some of what I scanned last night I saw Tresla giving a pipeline effect of 10,000 cars vs the 18,000 that calculated as a SWAG. So we are in the bounds of reason on this and many other aspects.

TSLA closed up yesterday. Recent low was $287, now at $308, both numbers can be defended.

I would call it linear growth, not exponential. It will be a struggle, at least until they have three auto plants running (CN, US, EU). I am holding, with a small toe in the water, but not topping up. Risk & valuation are both issues.

Solar City remains a gross stupidity. Storage on the other hand is good, and I've worked on storage so I have some insight :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197842

Postby Howard » January 31st, 2019, 9:47 am

dspp wrote:
TSLA closed up yesterday. Recent low was $287, now at $308, both numbers can be defended.

I would call it linear growth, not exponential. It will be a struggle, at least until they have three auto plants running (CN, US, EU). I am holding, with a small toe in the water, but not topping up. Risk & valuation are both issues.

Solar City remains a gross stupidity. Storage on the other hand is good, and I've worked on storage so I have some insight :)

regards, dspp


Don't disagree with what you suggest except that you are quoting the closing price pre-announcement.

A more indicative price would be the pre-opening price today of $296. This suggests a drop of around 4% as an initial reaction. But we'll see what the actual market reaction is later today.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197850

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2019, 9:55 am

fair point Howard.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197866

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2019, 10:32 am

Looking at Tesla deliveries, there is a linear relationship until last year:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/1090917709456596993

Regarding share price, a lot of the good news is out, so the shares could be weak till the next quarter. I would not be too surprised to see them below 244 in a weak market, but in a better market they could move up and will rocket if some good news on self driving comes out or if shipments to Europe go well and demand is as they expect. Basically I don't have a clue where they will go in this quarter but for now they are my biggest holding as I still think the upside risks now greatly outweigh the downside ones and longer term if they execute as they have been doing I feel they are cheap given the model y suv to come out and also the hinted pickup along with the semi etc.

I happen to think that storage will contribute meaningfully going forward and that the new look like roof tiles, slate or shingle roof top solar panels will do a lot better than many think, but I am a very small minority on this.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197960

Postby BobbyD » January 31st, 2019, 2:32 pm

VW prepared to make their MEB electric platform available to other manufacturers.

Volkswagen offers electric cooperations

Volkswagen is principally ready to provide other manufacturers with access to its new MEB electric platform, thus further reducing the costs of future electric cars. Michael Jost, Head of Strategy for the Volkswagen brand, highlighted this approach.

In an interview with the Berlin-based newspaper “Tagesspiegel”, Jost says that the modular electric drive matrix (MEB) should be a standard not just for Volkswagen Group: “Regarding this area, I think that we are industry forerunners in terms of costs and scalability. Therefore, we want to offer access to the MEB, by making it available to the entire industry. This represents a paradigm shift for us.” Volkswagen is already in various advanced talks with competitors, particularly in the volume segment, explains Jost.


- https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... tions.html

Given the recent VW/Ford cooperation announcements I would hazard a guess I can guess one of the competitors currently in talks...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197964

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2019, 2:48 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Given the recent VW/Ford cooperation announcements I would hazard a guess I can guess one of the competitors currently in talks...


I think so too. They are also culturally compatible as organisations.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197973

Postby BobbyD » January 31st, 2019, 3:09 pm

dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Given the recent VW/Ford cooperation announcements I would hazard a guess I can guess one of the competitors currently in talks...


I think so too. They are also culturally compatible as organisations.


Great minds, fools etc:

For now, this partnership is centred on light commercial vehicles. But analysts at Barclays said it is “obvious” and would offer “substantial benefits” if the partnership extended to Ford building electric cars on VW’s chassis.



- https://www.ft.com/content/a2b8cf3a-1e1 ... fc3ad87c65

- https://www.google.co.uk/search?client= ... u_s7l2plfU

I rather liked this bit as well:

The vehicles built on the electric chassis are also expected to be profitable by 2021 at the latest. One person familiar with the strategy said VW has cut the number of hours needed to build cars on the platform dramatically, achieving savings of 35 per cent in production costs.

This person said VW’s combustion-engine cars take between 26 and 32 hours to build, but a vehicle built on the electric chassis needs only 16 hours.

The goal is to reduce this further to just 10 hours within a few years. That would enable VW to launch a low-end electric model as early as 2023, costing just €18,000 — one-third of the €55,000 starting price for a Tesla Model 3 in Germany today.


Haven't read it yet since I actually set out to refresh my understanding of the difference between VW ord and pref, but the FT also have a big read called 'Robotaxis: can automakers catch up with Google in driverless cars?' which might be of interest. Google as ever is your friend.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197978

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2019, 3:39 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Given the recent VW/Ford cooperation announcements I would hazard a guess I can guess one of the competitors currently in talks...


I think so too. They are also culturally compatible as organisations.


Great minds, fools etc:

For now, this partnership is centred on light commercial vehicles. But analysts at Barclays said it is “obvious” and would offer “substantial benefits” if the partnership extended to Ford building electric cars on VW’s chassis.



- https://www.ft.com/content/a2b8cf3a-1e1 ... fc3ad87c65

- https://www.google.co.uk/search?client= ... u_s7l2plfU

I rather liked this bit as well:

The vehicles built on the electric chassis are also expected to be profitable by 2021 at the latest. One person familiar with the strategy said VW has cut the number of hours needed to build cars on the platform dramatically, achieving savings of 35 per cent in production costs.

This person said VW’s combustion-engine cars take between 26 and 32 hours to build, but a vehicle built on the electric chassis needs only 16 hours.

The goal is to reduce this further to just 10 hours within a few years. That would enable VW to launch a low-end electric model as early as 2023, costing just €18,000 — one-third of the €55,000 starting price for a Tesla Model 3 in Germany today.


Haven't read it yet since I actually set out to refresh my understanding of the difference between VW ord and pref, but the FT also have a big read called 'Robotaxis: can automakers catch up with Google in driverless cars?' which might be of interest. Google as ever is your friend.


Yes, but the problem is not so much the build time, but that the electric power units costs more because makers have to upfront the battery cost rather just provide a plastic tank for the buyer to fill.

The winner here will be the folk who have the lowest power pack and associate units.

This was all discussed on the Tesla call last night.

If VW are to launch a Euro18k car, how much do they believe the power pack and motors will cost. Remember VW are buying in cells etc from third parties and will have to pay a margin on that. My understanding of costs is that at E18k it would mean selling a vehicle at a very substantial loss.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197988

Postby BobbyD » January 31st, 2019, 4:27 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Yes, but the problem is not so much the build time, but that the electric power units costs more because makers have to upfront the battery cost rather just provide a plastic tank for the buyer to fill.

The winner here will be the folk who have the lowest power pack and associate units.

This was all discussed on the Tesla call last night.

If VW are to launch a Euro18k car, how much do they believe the power pack and motors will cost. Remember VW are buying in cells etc from third parties and will have to pay a margin on that. My understanding of costs is that at E18k it would mean selling a vehicle at a very substantial loss.

Regards,


It's a four year projection, although it's not the cost projection which interested me but the dramatic increase in manufacturing efficiency. Providing other manufacturers with a ready to go, efficient, modular system which allows for a wide variety of designs and the ability to move quickly in to the bespoke electric market isn't a revenue stream I'd considered, and it isn't a possibility which displeases me.

I also don't believe that a 60% increase in manufacturing efficiency from old format to new format is ever going to be irrelevant. If watching Tesla over the last couple of years has rammed one thing home it's the importance of a coherent and efficient car hatchery. Hell, if it wasn't important Tesla wouldn't have just fired 7% of their workforce, Musk wouldn't be saying it is all about cost, cost, cost, Tesla would never have built the big top, and every torturous increase in their production wouldn't be cheered to the rafters.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197999

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2019, 5:13 pm

BobbyD
It's a four year projection, although it's not the cost projection which interested me but the dramatic increase in manufacturing efficiency. Providing other manufacturers with a ready to go, efficient, modular system which allows for a wide variety of designs and the ability to move quickly in to the bespoke electric market isn't a revenue stream I'd considered, and it isn't a possibility which displeases me.

I also don't believe that a 60% increase in manufacturing efficiency from old format to new format is ever going to be irrelevant



Yes, but it still the cost of the unit that will dictate the final sales price of the widgets.

Moreover, 4 years is a very very long time in this business and I expect a lot of these units will become commodities with commodity pricing. Everyone in the motor trade is going down this route, its the ones who lead, make the money, re-invest and who produce the best received products that will win. VW and Ford might be good at bottom up, but for now the war has been about top down and that has given Tesla a large lead in all of this stuff and meanwhile there are all the Chinese makers who can likely make and buy commodities at the lowest price consistent with the lower wages in China.

There would have to be extraordinary fabrication cost reductions for VW to be able to offer an eu18k car refined enough to the standards Tesla are setting for 21st century auto.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198009

Postby BobbyD » January 31st, 2019, 5:39 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Moreover, 4 years is a very very long time in this business and I expect a lot of these units will become commodities with commodity pricing.


If true there goes dspp's argument about Tesla's built in pack price advantage.


odysseus2000 wrote:There would have to be extraordinary fabrication cost reductions for VW to be able to offer an eu18k car refined enough to the standards Tesla are setting for 21st century auto.


Granted VW don't currently have any models with a swimming pool built in to the boot.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198012

Postby BobbyD » January 31st, 2019, 5:54 pm

As part of their half [expletive deleted] approach to electrification VW have set up a green electricity company... https://www.elli.eco/en/

They will also do wall mounted electrical storage.

Volks-wallboxes
In time for the launch of the ID. family, Elli will launch ‘Volks-wallboxes’ to charge EVs at home. VW’s EVs can be charged on the normal grid (230 V grid with 3.7 kW), but the wallbox will have a charging power of up to 11 kW, allowing the battery to fully charge overnight.

Because the wallboxes are easy to install and use, users can set rates for neighbours to charge their own EVs – or give away power to family and friends. VW research shows that most ID. drivers won’t commute more than 50 km per day, meaning they won’t have to charge their car more than once a week. VW estimates that about half of all EV charging will be done at home.

Elli’s wallboxes will be bi-directional – able to feed power back to the grid. “By linking mobility, energy and digitalisation, our EVs will help create an intelligent energy transition," says Nicklass.


- https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/smart-mo ... mpany-elli

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198138

Postby odysseus2000 » February 1st, 2019, 11:50 am

BobbyD wrote:As part of their half [expletive deleted] approach to electrification VW have set up a green electricity company... https://www.elli.eco/en/

They will also do wall mounted electrical storage.

Volks-wallboxes
In time for the launch of the ID. family, Elli will launch ‘Volks-wallboxes’ to charge EVs at home. VW’s EVs can be charged on the normal grid (230 V grid with 3.7 kW), but the wallbox will have a charging power of up to 11 kW, allowing the battery to fully charge overnight.

Because the wallboxes are easy to install and use, users can set rates for neighbours to charge their own EVs – or give away power to family and friends. VW research shows that most ID. drivers won’t commute more than 50 km per day, meaning they won’t have to charge their car more than once a week. VW estimates that about half of all EV charging will be done at home.

Elli’s wallboxes will be bi-directional – able to feed power back to the grid. “By linking mobility, energy and digitalisation, our EVs will help create an intelligent energy transition," says Nicklass.


- https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/smart-mo ... mpany-elli


All of this is validating what Tesla have been doing for years now.

If the 50 km per day figure is seen in practice all the stuff about everyone needing very fast charging is also undermined & if the 50% of charging is done at home there will be less need for charging stations.

Whether anyone loves or loathes Musk it is hard to argue that he his not revolutionising the personal transport industry even if the autominous driving never works. If robotic driving does work over a century of current experience will be moved to the history books.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198175

Postby BobbyD » February 1st, 2019, 1:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
All of this is validating what Tesla have been doing for years now.

If the 50 km per day figure is seen in practice all the stuff about everyone needing very fast charging is also undermined & if the 50% of charging is done at home there will be less need for charging stations.

Whether anyone loves or loathes Musk it is hard to argue that he his not revolutionising the personal transport industry even if the autominous driving never works. If robotic driving does work over a century of current experience will be moved to the history books.

Regards,


I don't think anybody is arguing that Musk hasn't spent billions of dollars creating a viable market for a modern electric infrastructure and electric vehicles, but that isn't an investment case for Tesla. The pace setter expends their energy creating the race, not winning it.

Tesla don't have autonomous driving. Waymo and APTIV do, and it will change car design, but a century of experience of putting cars together will still be very useful when it comes to putting cars together. As a comparison VW are talking about 16 hours to build a car coming down to 10. The figures I came across for Tesla were measured in days.

I think 50% is way below what most people are assuming, hence the recurring argument about electric cars being unusable for people without off road parking.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198185

Postby odysseus2000 » February 1st, 2019, 2:46 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
All of this is validating what Tesla have been doing for years now.

If the 50 km per day figure is seen in practice all the stuff about everyone needing very fast charging is also undermined & if the 50% of charging is done at home there will be less need for charging stations.

Whether anyone loves or loathes Musk it is hard to argue that he his not revolutionising the personal transport industry even if the autominous driving never works. If robotic driving does work over a century of current experience will be moved to the history books.

Regards,


I don't think anybody is arguing that Musk hasn't spent billions of dollars creating a viable market for a modern electric infrastructure and electric vehicles, but that isn't an investment case for Tesla. The pace setter expends their energy creating the race, not winning it.

Tesla don't have autonomous driving. Waymo and APTIV do, and it will change car design, but a century of experience of putting cars together will still be very useful when it comes to putting cars together. As a comparison VW are talking about 16 hours to build a car coming down to 10. The figures I came across for Tesla were measured in days.

I think 50% is way below what most people are assuming, hence the recurring argument about electric cars being unusable for people without off road parking.


Being first mover as a disadvantage was oft said about Amazon, Ebay, Pypl, Dyson, Amstrad... I could go on and on but the reality is that being first move with a good CEO is often a huge advantage. Buffett recently noted that you don't give someone like Bezos time if you want to compete.

According to these guys:

https://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-mod ... ys-2018-12

Tesla Model 3 build time is 30 minutes.

Waymo and APTIV have some permits for restricted use no driver cars. This is not the same as saying that Waymo have self driving that is marketable, it just says they have tests underway.

Either you believe VW analysis or you don't. Personally I see no difficulty with putting in no wire charging points all over the place that can charge a car inductively. I just do not see the argument about charging being meaningful.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#198188

Postby BobbyD » February 1st, 2019, 3:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:According to these guys:

https://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-mod ... ys-2018-12

Tesla Model 3 build time is 30 minutes.


Firstly, man talks up own stock. Secondly doesn't say build time is or could be 30 minutes. Otherwise great source.


odysseus2000 wrote:Waymo and APTIV have some permits for restricted use no driver cars. This is not the same as saying that Waymo have self driving that is marketable, it just says they have tests underway.


Waymo have autonomous cars. APTIV have autonomous cars. Tesla don't have autonomous cars.

If Tesla had licenses to run autonomous cars they'd have to phone Waymo or APTIV to see if they could borrow some wheels for the weekend.

odysseus2000 wrote:Personally I see no difficulty with putting in no wire charging points all over the place that can charge a car inductively. I just do not see the argument about charging being meaningful.

Regards,


So you don't see Tesla's extensive charging network as being a strong plus which rivals will struggle to overcome?


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