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Musk endeavours

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#255870

Postby dspp » October 4th, 2019, 2:20 pm

1. Battery packs may well get repurposed into stationary after a certain amount of EV use. If so it may be at the pack level, but it could be at the cell level. Most likely is a hybrid approach where the duff cells get extracted & replaced, then the whole pack gets recanned and issued for stationary use. Since they will be approx 25 kWh packs (ie a car is 4 x 25kWh typical long range) then it is unikely they will be for individual domestic premises, more likely racked & stacked in large arrays. If you look at the pack decline data for Tesla it seems the packs are going to last extremely well. Pack data for other manufacturers reveals much worse declines - this is all to do with good decisions in Tesla, poor historic ones in other EV manufacturers. It remains to be seen whether future generation non-Tesla EV packs will last better, i.e. have they learnt.

2. When UK industrialised it had all the key technical ingredients (as well as some social/legal ones):
- cheap energy;
- cheap labour;
- plentiful domestic located raw materials;
- rapidly improving internal transport systems;
- good external market access (often at point of gun/sword) to complement the internal one;
- nearly first mover advantage.
Almost all of the above has gone. If I was putting a battery (cell/pack) manufacturing facility into Europe the last place I would consider at this particular moment would be the UK for rather obvious reasons. Unless of course the UK government bribed me with $bn of UK taxpayer money and promised to keep that bribery stream flowing like a gusher for many years to come. Otherwise the UK wouldn't even be on my longlist, let alone my shortlist.

3. Scuse bad typos etc last few days, I was on the move on my phone.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#255897

Postby dspp » October 4th, 2019, 3:42 pm

Here is the quarterly model production & delivery data now that this info is available for Q3 2019:

Produced/qtr:       |  Q2 2016  |  Q3 2016  |  Q4 2016  |  Q1 2017  |  Q2 2017  |  Q3 2017  |  Q4 2017  |  Q1 2018  |  Q2 2018  |  Q3 2018  |  Q4 2018  |  Q1 2019  |  Q3 2019  |  Q3 2019 
Model S/X | 18,345 | 25,185 | 24,882 | 25,100 | 22,000 | 25,076 | 22,140 | 24,728 | 24,761 | 26,903 | 25,161 | 14,163 | 14,517 | 16,318
Model 3 | | | | | | 260 | 2,425 | 9,766 | 28,578 | 53,239 | 61,394 | 62,975 | 72,531 | 79,837
Model Y | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
total produced/qtr | 18,345 | 25,185 | 24,882 | 25,100 | 22,000 | 25,336 | 24,565 | 34,494 | 53,339 | 80,142 | 86,555 | 77,138 | 87,048 | 96,155
per year | 73,380 | 100,740 | 99,528 | 100,400 | 88,000 | 101,344 | 98,260 | 137,976 | 213,356 | 320,568 | 346,220 | 308,552 | 348,192 | 384,620
QoQ change % | - | 37% | -1% | 1% | -12% | 15% | -3% | 40% | 55% | 50% | 8% | -11% | 13% | 10%
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Delivered/qtr: | Q2 2016 | Q3 2016 | Q4 2016 | Q1 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2019
Model S/X | 14,370 | 24,500 | 22,200 | 25,418 | 25,708 | 25,930 | 28,320 | 21,800 | 22,319 | 27,710 | 27,607 | 12,091 | 17,722 | 17,400
Model 3 | | | | | | 220 | 1,550 | 8,180 | 18,449 | 56,065 | 63,359 | 50,928 | 77,634 | 79,600
Model Y | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
total delivered/qtr | 14,370 | 24,500 | 22,200 | 25,418 | 25,708 | 26,150 | 29,870 | 29,980 | 40,740 | 83,775 | 90,966 | 63,019 | 95,356 | 97,000
per year | 57,480 | 98,000 | 88,800 | 101,672 | 102,832 | 104,600 | 119,480 | 119,920 | 162,960 | 335,100 | 363,864 | 252,076 | 381,424 | 388,000
QoQ change % | - | 70% | -9% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 14% | 0% | 36% | 106% | 9% | -31% | 51% | 2%


My observation is that Q3 global stocks are likely up by 10k cars given that deliveries is flat but production increased, and that this probably means the worst of the pipeline stuffing for the different countries is over, and perhaps implies some future reduction in end-of-quarter cramming. So logistics hell is likely approaching steady state.

That's a healthy improvement in production but again suggests to me that for now Fremont is pretty much maxed out at 100,000 cars/quarter. Whether the constraint is Fremont paint shop or Sparks cells I don't know, but I guess it won't shift much until the Y line starts flowing by which time they will need to have both those improved. We might even start to see early flow out of Shanghai in Q4.

Regarding the Q3 financials my thinking is that there may be a mild improvement due to possible increases in cells, but otherwise shouldn't be so different than Q2. They could surprise to the upside, and some scenarios even make a profit, but I think it unlikely. Next year ought to see a shift into profit at some point.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#255899

Postby Howard » October 4th, 2019, 3:47 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD


There are a number of things to evaluate when selecting where to put a battery manufactory.

1. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of green energy will massively reduce the environmental impact of building batteries.

2. Battery production, we recall from earlier discussions about the environmental impact of BEV's is hugely energy hungry. Building your battery in a place which has a plentiful supply of cheap energy will massively reduce the cost of building batteries.

For 1 & 2 see for example Northvolt One in Sweden, built to take advantage of massive Hydro generation by a municipally owned energy company with an obsession about zero emission energy which turns out the cheapest green energy in Europe, by a company aiming to create the world's greenest battery whilst still being market competitive.

The UK has a decent energy mix, but nothing like Skelleftea and it isn't cheap.

3. Build near your inputs. For example again, Northvolt One. There are a number of places in Europe which could make a claim to be conveniently close to the raw materials required for a battery, the UK is not amongst them.

4. Build near your destination. For example Tesla in the states, Northvolt/VW joint venture in Germany. The UK is losing car plants like they are going out of fashion, if you are looking to build batteries for BEV's almost anywhere in Europe would be a better bet.

5. Build your batteries where they can supply numerous potential markets across frictionless borders. Eg. 27 countries not trying to leave the EU.

3, 4 and 5 are more damning for the UK. We don't produce the materials or the end product and we are currently trying to leave the single market of 27 other countries which contains 309 automotive production and assembly plants. If you threw a dart at a map of Europe you'd do well to hit a spot which does worse on these considerations.

At the moment static storage seems to be envisoned as running off ex-BEV batteries given a second life when they no longer have the legs to push your car along, so given the explosion in BEV's you hold as inevitable why would you need to manufacture batteries for static storage? Interestingly another aspect of Northvolt is that they are starting out with a strong emphasis on the entire life cycle of the cell, including recycling in to the production process, so that may change with static and mobile storage solutions diverging in the technology they use as ex-BEV power packs become more valuable as materials for new BEV power packs rather than a waste product incorporated in to static storage to get more years out of the cell.


This imho is a surrender thesis.

All we now know is that currently BEV powered by renewables are much better than ICE for many reason including:

No greenhouse or other pollutants in use, better performance, use for off peak power for charging...

A new tech may make them obsolete but for now they are better than all practical alternatives.

Given these facts there is a profit opportunity for business that can make & sell this tech. In the uk we have good university to supply the technical knowledge, good infra structure for movement of parts/supplies, an economy that would benefit from a growth industry & by making our own BEV & renewable energy we decouple ourselves from the reliance on foreign energy.

There is no way that in a prosperous uk that affluent folk will buy second hand cast off batteries for storage. Try flogging second hand stuff of unknown durability to someone like Howard & see how far you go.

One can of course find reasons not to do this, just as after Dunkirk we could have said we can't compete with the Nazi war machine & so we must surrender & many did say that.

There is a huge commercial opportunity here. I fear it will be missed but for now there is a slight hope that some of the rhetoric by many politicians might lead to the opportunity being taken.

Regards,



I have enjoyed your and others' posts about my willingness to spend. :D

I don't see myself as pretentious ;) But I can't really disagree with you as I'm writing this in a Queen's Grill suite on the Queen Elizabeth.

(Only a short local cruise as we choose not to fly on environmental grounds!)

I probably wouldn't buy second hand batteries. But a friend told me he has ordered a Model 3, so am hoping to be able to report on a test ride soon. Interestingly he is doing this because his business is focused on supplying Public Sector organisations and they now expect their suppliers to drive BEVs. So this could be a promising market for Teslas?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#255952

Postby BobbyD » October 4th, 2019, 7:55 pm

dspp wrote:1. Battery packs may well get repurposed into stationary after a certain amount of EV use. If so it may be at the pack level, but it could be at the cell level. Most likely is a hybrid approach where the duff cells get extracted & replaced, then the whole pack gets recanned and issued for stationary use. Since they will be approx 25 kWh packs (ie a car is 4 x 25kWh typical long range) then it is unikely they will be for individual domestic premises, more likely racked & stacked in large arrays. If you look at the pack decline data for Tesla it seems the packs are going to last extremely well. Pack data for other manufacturers reveals much worse declines - this is all to do with good decisions in Tesla, poor historic ones in other EV manufacturers. It remains to be seen whether future generation non-Tesla EV packs will last better, i.e. have they learnt.


Ironically Tesla are about the one company who have explicitly renounced the idea... Generally speaking technology gets better over time, once other's start to take electric seriously you'd expect to see them making better decisions, and if electric becomes the new new thing you'd expect those who make bad decisions to disappear, or go on to the chapter 11 life support system.

Having said that Tesla packs do have an inordinate number of cells in them compared to some, which would make breaking the pack down, testing cells and rebuilding a much more convoluted and expensive process. For comparison the SR model 3 pack has 2,976 cells, the 62 kWh MEB battery when using a pouch configuration contains 108 cells in 9 12 cell modules. I know which one I'd rather break down and cannibalise. Then again I know which one I'd rather have to build in the first place.

dspp wrote:2. When UK industrialised it had all the key technical ingredients (as well as some social/legal ones):
- cheap energy;
- cheap labour;
- plentiful domestic located raw materials;
- rapidly improving internal transport systems;
- good external market access (often at point of gun/sword) to complement the internal one;
- nearly first mover advantage.


Long time ago when we was fabricators...

Howard wrote:I don't see myself as pretentious ;) But I can't really disagree with you as I'm writing this in a Queen's Grill suite on the Queen Elizabeth.

(Only a short local cruise as we choose not to fly on environmental grounds!)

I probably wouldn't buy second hand batteries. But a friend told me he has ordered a Model 3, so am hoping to be able to report on a test ride soon. Interestingly he is doing this because his business is focused on supplying Public Sector organisations and they now expect their suppliers to drive BEVs. So this could be a promising market for Teslas?

regards

Howard


Knowing what you value and being prepared to pay for it is good consumerism, not pretension!

You might not buy second hand cells but I reckon, should the need arise, you'd lease a static storage unit containing repurposed and recertified cells from your energy provider on a 7 year contract with warrantied performance characteristics, even if you became aware that it contained 2nd lifetime cells... Could be wrong.

Hmm, maybe I will buy a Tesla. Then I can rent it out by the day to suppliers who have meetings with PSO's and want to pass the car park test...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256060

Postby dspp » October 5th, 2019, 4:28 pm

"The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market"


https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/f ... -game/1096

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256097

Postby BobbyD » October 5th, 2019, 6:32 pm

dspp wrote:"The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market"


https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/f ... -game/1096

- dspp


So a car company which sells expensive cars has a higher percentage trade in of European cars than a general market which on average supplies cheaper cars? Did we really need an advert from Capital One to tell us this?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256102

Postby dspp » October 5th, 2019, 7:14 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:"The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market"


https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/f ... -game/1096

- dspp


So a car company which sells expensive cars has a higher percentage trade in of European cars than a general market which on average supplies cheaper cars? Did we really need an advert from Capital One to tell us this?


One thing for sure, there is a really weird scale on the y-axis of that graph :).

But more generally it does show that the high-end brands are getting disproportionately hammered. They thought that their high-end position would act as a better insulator. It turns out that their client base is a perfect early-adopter community for Tesla. This in turn will have consequences in both the high-end and lower down the brand spectrum; and in both the new & the used markets. Why buy a new Renault when you can have a nearly new Merc. Why buy a new Merc at all. When you see Tesla getting top 3 (or even top 1) positions in countries and states then there is a real effect out there.

Tesla is roughly doubling production every 18-months. It is not obvious that legacy auto are catching up, indeed Tesla may be accelerating away from the pack. The next 18-months will be important in showing which way that goes. There will be some dinosaur moments in this ICE > BEV transition. It is fascinating to watch.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256115

Postby BobbyD » October 5th, 2019, 7:59 pm

dspp wrote:One thing for sure, there is a really weird scale on the y-axis of that graph :).


Yes it's almost as if they wanted to create a story people would post elsewhere and talk about to increase their hits...

dspp wrote:But more generally it does show that the high-end brands are getting disproportionately hammered.


Does it though? It shows that people who buy expensive cars often already own an expensive car, and that partial data over a portion of a market across a very short specific time frame during which plenty of other stuff was affecting the industry suggest a change in the price of some cars which coincides with an increase in Tesla sales and rides the hell out of it using plenty of hyperbole such as 'self driving tools'. It's an advert, not a serious analysis.

dspp wrote:Tesla is roughly doubling production every 18-months. It is not obvious that legacy auto are catching up, indeed Tesla may be accelerating away from the pack.


I continue to be fascinated by the Teslarati's insistence on seeing non Tesla companies as an undifferentiated pack. It reminds me a little of the way America often appears to see the rest of the world, just us and them, with built in us exceptionalism. The real intrigue is in the detail this view ignores. We are watching the creation of the next 30 plus years of the auto industry, either the first age of the BEV era or the great BEV error. The Tesla storyline may grab most of the coverage with it's gratuitous sex scenes and brutal violence, but it has served it's primary purpose in setting up the conflict which will drive our narrative. The future of empires is being decided in the quiet talky scenes in the middle. Not all empires will emerge equal, and the winners and losers will shape the development of the industry and the successes and failures of the BEV.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256126

Postby Howard » October 5th, 2019, 9:04 pm

dspp wrote:"The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market"


https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/f ... -game/1096

- dspp


I couldn't get your link to work (maybe as I'm using a satellite link). However, i have been struck by the very large number of new/nearly new Tesla Model S and X which are for sale in the UK.

A few days ago there were more than 60 nearly new S and more than 50 X for sale on the Tesla UK site. And, from memory well over a hundred more on Autotrader. That's millions of £ of stock of cars which haven't found a buyer.

I don't think you will find such a large stock of nearly new German luxury cars for sale on any site.

And the second hand prices of low mileage Teslas are dropping. Last time I looked they were well over £40k. Now I suspect a canny buyer could pick one up for less than 40k. The depreciation on a new S class is beginning to look quite serious and might worry someone considering a new model?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256129

Postby odysseus2000 » October 5th, 2019, 9:29 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:"The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market"


https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/f ... -game/1096

- dspp


So a car company which sells expensive cars has a higher percentage trade in of European cars than a general market which on average supplies cheaper cars? Did we really need an advert from Capital One to tell us this?


No, wrong interpretation.

Folk choosing new Tesla over 2nd hand luxury motors has huge implications for leasing and for depreciation of existing stock.

Folk not buying luxury second hand hurts dealer service, dealer parts and will make folk shy of buying luxury motors knowing they will depreciate faster than they have.

It is a serious disruptive force for legacy auto and the boys in the legacy boardrooms will not be happy.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256245

Postby Howard » October 6th, 2019, 6:00 pm

I've now read the Capital One article. It's talking about the US used car market and looking back to the situation which occurred when Tesla benefited from large subsidies and took market share from other luxury car brands. It’s a bit thin on factual evidence however when it talks about depreciation. We all know that luxury cars depreciate significantly in the first three years. And it doesn’t suggest that Tesla are any different.

Looking at the company from an investment viewpoint, their more recent sales performance has fallen back and, if memory serves me well, they have missed every sales and production forecast they made in the last year or two. With this track record most companies would have perished or been taken over.

In an earlier post, Ody light-heartedly suggested that a competitor left bags of cash on the seat for motoring journalists to encourage them to write good reviews. It could be argued that Tesla have done this for every buyer of a Model 3. In selling each car at a very substantial loss they have “given” every buyer a generous cash gift. Ironically it could be argued that the poor have subsidised rich Tesla customers because much of the cash has come from taxpayers who couldn’t affore a $40k car and the hapless but enthusiastic shareholders who have met cash calls.

Now that the demand from rich US customers is reducing, it is argued that global markets will take up the slack. The UK market is an important example. As has been stated here, the financial case for buying a Tesla in the UK is overwhelmingly attractive for company buyers. This has been true for some time, but the UK market is yet to react in any volume. Surely, the Teslarati will argue, it will be fashionable to drive a Tesla and support the BEV movement. But this isn’t happening yet. September’s sales figures for Tesla have dropped back and the exaggerated hype which accompanied their sales figure in the quiet month of August is now fading.

It is interesting to speculate why Tesla don’t yet seem to be making inroads into the market for cars such as the BMW 3 series. Especially as most of the BMWs are still diesel-engined. One of the main reasons I would argue is that Tesla have an image problem. One would think that they would be able to dominate the market, but they still seem like a rich man’s toy. I would guess that most of those who buy a Tesla have at least one other car, many have even more. So their customers aren’t really that environmentally conscious? Certainly the average Tesla fanboy on the internet appears to have an additional gas-guzzler or two on his drive. And time will tell if the disadvantages of touchscreen-only control will hold back the sales of the Model 3 as drivers of quality cars used to more sophisticated driving controls get a chance to test the limitations of screen-only input.

Will the genuinely environmental conscious motorist be waiting to buy a more modest VW BEV to confirm his or her environmental credentials?

Apart from the hugely subsidised Norway and Netherlands markets, European consumers are not yet buying Teslas in quantity and there are doubts about sales levels in China.

Looking at the details for the UK,in the SMMT figures for September, one sees little change in the fairly static market. BMW sold 27,800 cars and Mercedes 30,400. Both very similar figures to September 2018.

Tesla sold just under 3,700. So interestingly after only one month since launch its September sales of model 3s have dropped well below the BMW 3 September sales figure of over 5,000 despite the Tesla order backlog.

From now on we will be able to see how the demand for Teslas develops in the UK.
Sales are still relatively small. And the falls in the second hand values of their established S and X models suggest they are suffering from depreciation as much as any other premium manufacturers.

We are left awaiting the financial figures for Tesla for the last quarter. Will capex be cut further? Will Freemont make a profit producing at full capacity? Will China start to turn from a liability to an asset? Will at least one of Elon's forecasts be met? :D

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256270

Postby odysseus2000 » October 6th, 2019, 11:05 pm

Howard
It could be argued that Tesla have done this for every buyer of a Model 3. In selling each car at a very substantial loss they have “given” every buyer a generous cash gift. Ironically it could be argued that the poor have subsidised rich Tesla customers because much of the cash has come from taxpayers who couldn’t affore a $40k car and the hapless but enthusiastic shareholders who have met cash calls.


This applies to all BEV, so I am not sure what point you are making here.

Regarding BEV sales v ICE in the UK, there seems to be a "support Europe" theme doing the rounds, with folk who support the EU wanting to continue to buy European sourced cars rather than buy from what some see as Trump's evil America. How much of an effect this is I have no idea, but as you have noted the reason for not buying a Tesla BEV are not economic.

One can argue many reason why Tesla are not selling well in the UK including:

Tesla's lack of dealer network & fears of long time for repair/service.

Lack of advertising, ignorance of the advantages of BEV.

Kick backs to fleet managers for buying ice from legacy and the associated kudos of managing large budgets with potential uncertainties of going for something as yet not so proven.

Reluctance to install home charger/(work chargers).

A disbelief in climate change and a wish to continue as normal etc etc.

IMHO, UK sales of Tesla will increase with time and I expect the Y to do well. If I compare BEV to the beginning of the Diesel transition from niche to mainstream and now the reduction in diesel, I see several parallels. Diesels were initially viewed with deep suspicion, noisy, unreliable, horrible things and then in the by and by the advantages of Diesel became so overwhelming that Diesel's became the fuel of choice. Once that happened it went fast and I expect BEV to move similarly fast with Tesla leading the charge.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256278

Postby BobbyD » October 7th, 2019, 6:23 am

odysseus2000 wrote:One can argue many reason why Tesla are not selling well in the UK including:

Tesla's lack of dealer network & fears of long time for repair/service.

Lack of advertising, ignorance of the advantages of BEV.

Kick backs to fleet managers for buying ice from legacy and the associated kudos of managing large budgets with potential uncertainties of going for something as yet not so proven.

Reluctance to install home charger/(work chargers).

A disbelief in climate change and a wish to continue as normal etc etc.


Some weird people just want something recognisable as a car to drive from A to B rather than a piece of minimalist interior sculpture whose name they can't spot the joke/cutting social commentary in. As you would say they want a car which is not radical enough given the possibilities BEV unleashes. Silly customers...

Some people might be under the strange delusion that Tesla has reliability and QC issues, or that their cars are expensive to fix and could be waiting for months for parts. They might even not be sure Tesla will be still be there in 3 years time when they need to pay £12,000 for a new rear bumper.

Speaking of cost, most people flat out can't afford a Tesla, even one of the 'mass market' model 3's. I'm sure a genuine people's wagon will be along soon though.

It is not inconceivable that Musk's abrasive and confrontational image with a grasp of fact and prophecy which verges on the Trumpian makes a Muskmobile a distasteful choice of vehicle to be associated with for a select few.

There might be other cars people like more on the way. There are really quite a lot of new BEV's coming, and only half of them are made by VW!

Having seen the puppy dog eyes made by seasoned motoring journos as they talked about the Taycan they might be saving up...

Speaking of vaporware I was never a VW camper idoliser, although I do like the Buzz. I can see the cargo version being a big hit, and there's one pootling around the states on promotional duty at the moment.

Image

- https://carbuzz.com/news/volkswagen-id- ... nike-shoes

Due in '22.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256285

Postby BobbyD » October 7th, 2019, 8:08 am

As with MEB, so with PPE:

VW in Talks With Peers to Share Its Electric Know-How

Volkswagen AG is in talks with other manufacturers on sharing the key technology underpinning its future Porsche and Audi electric car models, part of an effort to build scale and spread development costs.


“There’s definitely interest,” Ulrich Widmann, head of development at Audi for the joint engineering project, said at a press briefing in Munich. “We’re having conversations. Sharing technology to generate scale effects is the only way to achieve the turnaround in electric cars, both economically and ecologically.”


Widmann declined to identify manufacturers who have shown interest in adopting the so-called PPE platform, which is being developed by Porsche and Audi as the basis for their purely battery-powered models starting in 2021.

“Given the huge research and development investment required for the transition to battery-electric vehicles, many smaller luxury names could be interested including Aston Martin, McLaren and Maserati,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Dean said. “You couldn’t rule out BMW and Mercedes, which would provide a German premium solution,” he added.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... c-know-how

Like J1, PPE also uses an 800V electrical architecture, which means high performance and up to 350kW DC fast charging. Unlike J1, there are no voids in the battery pack (I refuse to call them foot garages), but the pack can come in low and high floor variants, with a 20mm difference in battery height. It has been public for some time that the replacement for the Porsche Macan will use PPE, presumably with the high floor, and Audi showed us a concept of a PPE-based fastback that would use the lower floor. We weren't allowed to take photos of it, but it looked like an evolved A7, although Audi stressed that it was a styling exercise and in no way a final design.

PPE is going to be rear-wheel drive as standard, and like the Taycan it will use a PSM at the rear. But all-wheel drive will be available, with either a PSM or an ASM for the front axle depending on the model. And it really is a flexible platform when it comes to things like wheelbase or track—the only fixed dimension is the distance between the front axle and the pedals.


- https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/10/au ... ill-do-it/

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#256297

Postby odysseus2000 » October 7th, 2019, 9:25 am

BobbyD
ome weird people just want something recognisable as a car to drive from A to B rather than a piece of minimalist interior sculpture whose name they can't spot the joke/cutting social commentary in. As you would say they want a car which is not radical enough given the possibilities BEV unleashes. Silly customers.


If this was the 1950's you would be right, but it is the 21st century & the make it basic & poorly & pile it high won't work as Nokia et al found out.

Folk do not want to be associated with thieves & liars who set profit before the environment & after diesel gate are now facing more ruinous fines in Germany for the same thieving from customers by claiming that the cars were clean, while making cars that cheated tests & were dirty.

Folk do however want cars that have associations with starships.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256305

Postby BobbyD » October 7th, 2019, 10:41 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
ome weird people just want something recognisable as a car to drive from A to B rather than a piece of minimalist interior sculpture whose name they can't spot the joke/cutting social commentary in. As you would say they want a car which is not radical enough given the possibilities BEV unleashes. Silly customers.


If this was the 1950's you would be right, but it is the 21st century & the make it basic & poorly & pile it high won't work as Nokia et al found out.

Folk do not want to be associated with thieves & liars who set profit before the environment & after diesel gate are now facing more ruinous fines in Germany for the same thieving from customers by claiming that the cars were clean, while making cars that cheated tests & were dirty.

Folk do however want cars that have associations with starships.

Regards,


It's very strange that your reaction to a questioning of the desirability of Tesla is to attack VW... It's almost like you didn't want to address the underlying point...

However given what response I have to work with Ody, you know that's bunkum. VW sell more cars than anybody else on the planet. Folk, or volk, have no problem whatsoever being associated with their wagons. Denying it just makes your lack of objectivity painfully obvious.

Being represented in the public mind by a man famous for calling rescue divers paedophiles, lambasting the regulatory authorities who have the temerity to hold him to the same standards as everyone else and making ridiculous promises about the future functionality of his cars may or may not be hurting Tesla, but it almost certainly isn't helping.

...and as far as making things basic and poorly, it's Tesla who still haven't mastered the art of making paint stick to the outside of a car in a paint shop which passes environmental emissions standards yet. People trust VW's build quality. You might think they are wrong, but they'll keep buying Golfs regardless.

What do you reckon the worldwide name recognition of Space X is?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256342

Postby vrdiver » October 7th, 2019, 2:29 pm

Anecdotal, but I'll wade in...

I'd love a Tesla. I really would. I actually have the money in the bank to buy one, today.

But, I won't be buying one. Why not?

In no particular order: Tesla after-sales, BEV evolution, early adopter premium, range anxiety.

    Tesla after-sales needs to prove itself in the UK. I don't want to be traipsing back and forth to my nearest dealer, who is 20 miles from home, but with only 13 Tesla stores in the UK likely to be further away when I'm out and about... Also, I need to know they have the same capability as my local garage. If I call in with a problem the local garage can order parts for delivery same day.

    BEV is currently where digital cameras were back in 2000 or so. The technical obsolescence I expect to see in the next few years will be eye-watering, both in terms of capability envy and in depreciation. Whilst I accept that like computers, there is never going to be a right time to buy the perfect technology, I'd like to see it more mass market and stable before jumping on board.

    Until BEV reaches mass-market, there is a premium vs ICE alternatives. That, to me, is just an insult when combined with the rapid development of the sector and consequent loss of value through obsolescence.

    Whilst most of our journeys would fit the under 300 mile limits (that's there and back again, with no charging available out in the sticks), I want my main car to not risk range limitations and getting stuck. Currently, worst case I buy a jerrycan and carry on. With BEV (any BEV) I have to call out a tow truck if I don't make it to the garage. Even if I make it to the garage, there's no guarantee that the charging point will be operational. Again, it needs mass-market volumes to create a better network of charging point availability.

If VW produce a BEV that solves the after-sales issues, prices it to sell and has charging point availability, then I'd buy a VW BEV in preference, despite the dieselgate tarnish. Simply put, I don't need my car to be associated with a maverick, no matter that I think he's done some pretty amazing things; I do need it to be associated with a support network that won't leave me stranded or driving a hire car for weeks on end.

VRD

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256345

Postby odysseus2000 » October 7th, 2019, 2:38 pm

BobbyD
There might be other cars people like more on the way. There are really quite a lot of new BEV's coming, and only half of them are made by VW!


I was simply noting that believing VW BEV will be popular with car buyers may be a mistake.

VW has a lot of issues as I pointed out, as do most car companies.

But many folk need a car and so folk have to decide what they will tolerate. Some folk will have no problem buying from a company caught cheating and telling lies, other may have issues.

I doubt there are many folk on the planet who have not heard of SpaceX.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256348

Postby odysseus2000 » October 7th, 2019, 2:46 pm

vrdiver wrote:Anecdotal, but I'll wade in...

I'd love a Tesla. I really would. I actually have the money in the bank to buy one, today.

But, I won't be buying one. Why not?

In no particular order: Tesla after-sales, BEV evolution, early adopter premium, range anxiety.

    Tesla after-sales needs to prove itself in the UK. I don't want to be traipsing back and forth to my nearest dealer, who is 20 miles from home, but with only 13 Tesla stores in the UK likely to be further away when I'm out and about... Also, I need to know they have the same capability as my local garage. If I call in with a problem the local garage can order parts for delivery same day.

    BEV is currently where digital cameras were back in 2000 or so. The technical obsolescence I expect to see in the next few years will be eye-watering, both in terms of capability envy and in depreciation. Whilst I accept that like computers, there is never going to be a right time to buy the perfect technology, I'd like to see it more mass market and stable before jumping on board.

    Until BEV reaches mass-market, there is a premium vs ICE alternatives. That, to me, is just an insult when combined with the rapid development of the sector and consequent loss of value through obsolescence.

    Whilst most of our journeys would fit the under 300 mile limits (that's there and back again, with no charging available out in the sticks), I want my main car to not risk range limitations and getting stuck. Currently, worst case I buy a jerrycan and carry on. With BEV (any BEV) I have to call out a tow truck if I don't make it to the garage. Even if I make it to the garage, there's no guarantee that the charging point will be operational. Again, it needs mass-market volumes to create a better network of charging point availability.

If VW produce a BEV that solves the after-sales issues, prices it to sell and has charging point availability, then I'd buy a VW BEV in preference, despite the dieselgate tarnish. Simply put, I don't need my car to be associated with a maverick, no matter that I think he's done some pretty amazing things; I do need it to be associated with a support network that won't leave me stranded or driving a hire car for weeks on end.

VRD


All good points.

As I remarked before I can recall when there lots of questions about Diesels & little punter interest, then all of a sudden folk started to buy them when they realised their advantages. I am currently working on a Common Rail Diesel and the stench and mess associated with it are significant. When there was no alternative I just put up with it, but given that BEV now exist I believe this tech will quickly be only in the history books.

The issue of obsolescence is a two hedged sword. Yes, BEV may change a lot and early models may depreciate, but equally if ICE cars become unfashionable their re-sale price can collapse too.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#256363

Postby dealtn » October 7th, 2019, 3:32 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I doubt there are many folk on the planet who have not heard of SpaceX.

Regards,


Wow, that's some claim. I would be fairly sure 75% of those living in my house wouldn't have heard of it. Admittedly that's, statistically speaking, a very small sample size of your "folk on the planet", but I think you might be fooling yourself making such an assertion!


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