The Lemon Fool

Interesting seeking alpha article on the model Y.

If the synergies with the model 3, the dramatic reduction in wiring & the sub $100/kWh are correct this could be a very significant money maker for Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/421118 ... nt-vehicle

Comparing thus article to the bear case of Greenfield is yet another indication of how difficult it is to know what is going on at Tesla & how to frame investment decisions.

Regards,

Tesla outsells Mercedes in the US:

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-j ... =buffer-ti

Regards,

Tesla outsells Porche:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-out-deliver ... in-q3/amp/

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla outsells Porche:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-out-deliver ... in-q3/amp/

Regards,

If this is Top Trumps I'll take annual profit 4.2 billion euros...

That's not bad on 250,000 cars...

'Cheap brands outsell luxury ones - shock!'

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla outsells Porche:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-out-deliver ... in-q3/amp/

Regards,

If this is Top Trumps I'll take annual profit 4.2 billion euros...

That's not bad on 250,000 cars...

4.2e9/2.5e5 = 16800 Euro's per car

Lots of opportunity for a competitor with cars folk are buying.

Regards,

DiamondEcho wrote:'Cheap brands outsell luxury ones - shock!'

Yes, it is as the rules of branding are that luxury brands do not suffer sales loss to cheaper brands.

How many Porsche owners would buy a Vauxhall?

Regards,

The BBC have got around to the idea that the car may become obsolete:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:
The BBC have got around to the idea that the car may become obsolete:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690

And here is a BBC article discussing why Mobike had to walk away from Manchester because people couldn't be trusted to behave with a user-interface that didn't involve sufficient deterrent to misbehaving -

Police were called to more than 400 incidents involving Mobikes during the bike-sharing scheme's troubled time operating in Manchester, the BBC can reveal.

The global firm pulled out of the city in September after its bikes were repeatedly stolen and vandalised. New data shows police recorded 413 incidents between July 2017 and August. More than 270 crimes, the majority involving theft and criminal damage, were recorded during that time.

Mobike runs its scheme - which does not use docking areas - in 200 cities around world including London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Oxford and Cambridge.

Manchester became the first city the China-based firm chose to leave after bikes were found broken, ditched in canals and even set on fire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-45717840

I put it to you that the required improvement in driverless technology may not really be the issue with removing owner-driven cars from the road, and that the required improvements to society, in terms of being able to correctly utilise such facilities, may be much more difficult to achieve....

These were bikes - where the people taking them, misbehaving with them, and then ditching them, were quite open to public view. Imagine what would happen if people were able to get inside a closed vehicle that can take a number of occupants, with no physical supervision....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
The BBC have got around to the idea that the car may become obsolete:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690

And here is a BBC article discussing why Mobike had to walk away from Manchester because people couldn't be trusted to behave with a user-interface that didn't involve sufficient deterrent to misbehaving -

Police were called to more than 400 incidents involving Mobikes during the bike-sharing scheme's troubled time operating in Manchester, the BBC can reveal.

The global firm pulled out of the city in September after its bikes were repeatedly stolen and vandalised. New data shows police recorded 413 incidents between July 2017 and August. More than 270 crimes, the majority involving theft and criminal damage, were recorded during that time.

Mobike runs its scheme - which does not use docking areas - in 200 cities around world including London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Oxford and Cambridge.

Manchester became the first city the China-based firm chose to leave after bikes were found broken, ditched in canals and even set on fire.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-45717840

I put it to you that the required improvement in driverless technology may not really be the issue with removing owner-driven cars from the road, and that the required improvements to society, in terms of being able to correctly utilise such facilities, may be much more difficult to achieve....

These were bikes - where the people taking them, misbehaving with them, and then ditching them, were quite open to public view. Imagine what would happen if people were able to get inside a closed vehicle that can take a number of occupants, with no physical supervision....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I'd imagine it would be very simple to have vehicles that only unlocked with your credit card (or phone app) so that any misuse would be chargeable to you. A 2 ton car would be a bit more tricky to dump in the canal than a bike.

John

I put it to you that the required improvement in driverless technology may not really be the issue with removing owner-driven cars from the road, and that the required improvements to society, in terms of being able to correctly utilise such facilities, may be much more difficult to achieve....

These were bikes - where the people taking them, misbehaving with them, and then ditching them, were quite open to public view. Imagine what would happen if people were able to get inside a closed vehicle that can take a number of occupants, with no physical supervision....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

This is an age old argument that has been used over centuries from the twilight of pre-history to say that the public can not be trusted & nothing good like a library, temple, garden etc will ever be used responsibly.

The key has always been having sufficient deterrent to make people more afraid of doing something bad & what would happen to them than being happy at destroying something or thieving.

As John says one deterrent would be the prospect of heavy fines on the method used to access the car, very similar to what car hire companies do now.

Additionally there will almost certainly be cameras & other sensors & AI can then collect any evidence of wrong doing & drive you to court for trial and sentencing, no need to bother the police. "Arrested" folk might try to get out but no doubt simple lock down could be applied & if the villain does get out there will likely be enough data to find him or her. Note that the Apple phone ID is not fooled by disguises.

Clearly this is Orwellian tech, but quite possible & I imagine after a few cases folk will become too frightened to behave badly.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:4.2e9/2.5e5 = 16800 Euro's per car

I know, impressive isn't it?

odysseus2000 wrote:Lots of opportunity for a competitor with cars folk are buying.

So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:4.2e9/2.5e5 = 16800 Euro's per car

I know, impressive isn't it?

odysseus2000 wrote:Lots of opportunity for a competitor with cars folk are buying.

So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

Yeah, so good that Tesla are out selling them.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:4.2e9/2.5e5 = 16800 Euro's per car

I know, impressive isn't it?

odysseus2000 wrote:Lots of opportunity for a competitor with cars folk are buying.

So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

Yeah, so good that Tesla are out selling them.

Regards,

Throughout the world?

They are only out-selling Porsche in the US market and over a very short time period. It is dangerous to put a ruler on a short term trend of a few months and extrapolate it over many years.

We know that the US consumer is not typical of every consumer, especially the super wealthy niche that Tesla are successful in at the moment. This niche used to belong to Cadillac and we know what happened to them. If Tesla and Musk are successful in beating the competition in their niche across world markets for the next five years, your forecasts may have some substance. But at the moment, the jury is out.

regards

Howard

Howard wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:
I know, impressive isn't it?



So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

Yeah, so good that Tesla are out selling them.

Regards,

Throughout the world?

They are only out-selling Porsche in the US market and over a very short time period. It is dangerous to put a ruler on a short term trend of a few months and extrapolate it over many years.

We know that the US consumer is not typical of every consumer, especially the super wealthy niche that Tesla are successful in at the moment. This niche used to belong to Cadillac and we know what happened to them. If Tesla and Musk are successful in beating the competition in their niche across world markets for the next five years, your forecasts may have some substance. But at the moment, the jury is out.

regards

Howard

Yes, of course one month does not a summer make, but the current direction is impressive: Tesla are closing on Porsche worldwide sales:

https://longtailpipe.com/2018/09/13/tes ... e-porsche/

Interesting article and worth a read.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:4.2e9/2.5e5 = 16800 Euro's per car

I know, impressive isn't it?

odysseus2000 wrote:Lots of opportunity for a competitor with cars folk are buying.

So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

Yeah, so good that Tesla are out selling them.

Regards,

Which do you think is the hard bit, making and selling 250,000 cars, or making 17,000 euros profit on each car you sell?

Judging Porsche on volume is to miss the point, spectacularly.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:
I know, impressive isn't it?



So now profit is a weakness?

There was lots of opportunity last year, and the year before, and the year before that...

Porsche are a well run, highly profitable company and an iconic brand.

Yeah, so good that Tesla are out selling them.

Regards,

Which do you think is the hard bit, making and selling 250,000 cars, or making 17,000 euros profit on each car you sell?

Judging Porsche on volume is to miss the point, spectacularly.

The hard part is creating a new car & then out selling iconic brands.

The easy part is not innovating & sitting back & letting a new competitor outsell you. This is how the UK car & motorcycle industries became extinct.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:
The hard part is creating a new car & then out selling iconic brands.

Regards,

Not quite - the hard part is out selling iconic brands and making a profit.

It's true Tesla are early stage, and so lack of profits is to some extent excusable, but I thing we can all be quite sure that the setting of overoptimistic targets and and the subsequent scrabble to achieve them will have cost (a lot). But producing, and selling the numbers is only the start. They have to show reliability and quality and they have to show a profit that is worth the investment. They have yet do either. You can make a strong case that the reason they are outselling the expensive European brands (which have always been more expensive in the US) is that they 1) have the buzz of being the new kid on the block and 2) are selling cheaply.

That may be enough to get them started, and may prove to be a sound business approach - if they can back it up with reasonable reliability/servicing etc. But to argue that currently outselling BMW etc while failing to make a profit - while BMW and co are happily making significant profits per car they are continuing to sell - indicates likely future world domination by Tesla is completely unjustifiable.

Profit is so last century.

The important thing is innovation, disruption and market dominance.

John

redsturgeon wrote:Profit is so last century. The important thing is innovation, disruption and market dominance. John

For an egomaniac CEO perhaps, not for an investor though, of course. Isn't that the disconnect here?