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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#189509

Postby BobbyD » December 27th, 2018, 4:23 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Musk seeks to dismiss 'pedo' defamation claim -

Elon Musk is seeking to dismiss a defamation claim by saying that "over-the-top" paedophilia claims he tweeted should not be taken seriously.

Mr Musk wants the court to throw out the defamation claim because, his lawyers say, his comments were "non-actionable opinion".

The legal team said the Tesla chief had never met Mr Unsworth so his comments had no "factual basis".

Instead, the words were "over-top-insults not driven by first-hand knowledge".

Mr Musk's lawyers argue at length that because the "schoolyard spat" blew up on Twitter, which they say is "infamous for invective and hyperbole", no-one could reasonably believe the comments were truthful.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46693736

So his defence seems to be that because all the hassle happened on Twitter, it doesn't count....

That seems to be an interesting line of defence.....no doubt he'll get off with it too....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


That would be the same Twitter account which is officially recognised as a valid way of disseminating price sensitive information about Tesla...

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#189662

Postby Howard » December 28th, 2018, 11:14 am

Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189683

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 11:59 am

Howard wrote:Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard


Does the inside of an ipace actually look like a finished car rather than an engineering prototype with an ipad stuck on to the dashboard with sticky back velcro tape to allow the engineers to monitor performance during development?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189699

Postby PeterGray » December 28th, 2018, 12:49 pm

So his defence seems to be that because all the hassle happened on Twitter, it doesn't count....

That seems to be an interesting line of defence.....no doubt he'll get off with it too....


Sadly he may well, as it's being tried in the US, and it's hard suing there - if the case was in the UK he'd end up in the Tower!

The best bit of all this is that Musk restarted the whole argument, entirely unprovoked, a few weeks later by saying "why haven't you sued me". He really deserves to be hit very, very hard in his pocket, though I fear he won't.

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#189735

Postby Howard » December 28th, 2018, 3:00 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:Tesla appears to be having a bad time in Norway.

Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar.

As usual this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt until the full facts emerge. But it wouldn't surprise me to read that Tesla has been hurt by its bad reliability performance in the Norwegian market.

Who would have believed that Jaguar would be the company to take market share from them, if only for a quarter! These things matter from a marketing perspective. Will wealthy Europeans prefer to own an electric Jaguar (Merc, Audi, BMW, Nissan) than a car made by Musk?

Time will tell.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423045 ... ned-jaguar

regards

Howard


Does the inside of an ipace actually look like a finished car rather than an engineering prototype with an ipad stuck on to the dashboard with sticky back velcro tape to allow the engineers to monitor performance during development?


Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189758

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 4:01 pm

Howard wrote:
Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard


Once you start to exhaust the neo-tech enthusiasts and set off on the long slog towards mass market being recognisable as the product people actually want to buy is quite important... Most people's knowledge of their cars internals extends to the order of the foot pedals, and possibly the engine size. Give them something that looks like a car and they'll be quite happy, give them something which looks 'different' and you'll meet resistance.

The true meaning of Christmas is spending more time amongst those of an older technological age... I'm coming to the conclusion that the ability to strip a classic British Sports Car and rebuild it blindfolded might be a symptom of an allergy to wheel based electric propulsion.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189839

Postby odysseus2000 » December 28th, 2018, 8:39 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:
Irony mode off ... yes it looks like a "normal" luxury car inside ........ irony mode on ...... :D

Howard


Once you start to exhaust the neo-tech enthusiasts and set off on the long slog towards mass market being recognisable as the product people actually want to buy is quite important... Most people's knowledge of their cars internals extends to the order of the foot pedals, and possibly the engine size. Give them something that looks like a car and they'll be quite happy, give them something which looks 'different' and you'll meet resistance.

The true meaning of Christmas is spending more time amongst those of an older technological age... I'm coming to the conclusion that the ability to strip a classic British Sports Car and rebuild it blindfolded might be a symptom of an allergy to wheel based electric propulsion.


The stagecoach maker said everyone wants what they know, a nice carriage and nice horses and then the horseless carriage took their lunch.

IBM said there will only be a need for 5 computer in the world and then they said we will make the hardware where all the profit will be and let some other mug do the software and Bill Gates became a billionaire.

Nokia said folk just want a phone, the iPhone is too complicated and no one wants a camera with their phone and then they along with Blackberry and others found out that they were wrong.

Hoover said our vacuums are great, no one wants a cyclone and Jimmy Dyson became a billionaire.

Vag said Tesla will exhaust the neo-tech buyers and then we will sell them a last century car and...

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#189843

Postby BobbyD » December 28th, 2018, 9:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:IBM said there will only be a need for 5 computer in the world and then they said we will make the hardware where all the profit will be and let some other mug do the software and Bill Gates became a billionaire.


That quote is from 1943, 12 years before Bill Gates was born... and has absolutely nothing to do with the subject at hand.

odysseus2000 wrote:Vag said Tesla will exhaust the neo-tech buyers and then we will sell them a last century car and...


No that was me*, it shouldn't be too difficult to tell the difference, one is a car company the other is a frequent poster here.

* Well it's an inaccurate paraphrasing of something I said at any rate.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190565

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 2:31 pm

Tesla Q4 production numbers
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17368401-te ... duction-us

Q4 production was 86,555 vehicles.

The quarterly tally includes 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with the company's guidance and 15% higher than the Q3 mark. 25,161 Model S and X vehicles were produced, which Tesla says is consistent with the long-term run rate goal of ~100K per year.

Tesla says Q4 deliveries came in at 90,700 vehicles, including 63,150 Model 3 (vs. 63.7 consensus estimate), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.

For the full year, Tesla delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles, consisting of 145,846 Model 3 vehicles and 99,394 Model S and X vehicles.


I had conservatively estimated Q4 sales of 81,085 vs the actual of 90,700. I'm happy to be under by 10% on this one :)

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190594

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 4:11 pm

dspp wrote:Tesla Q4 production numbers
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17368401-te ... duction-us

[i]Q4 production was 86,555 vehicles.

The quarterly tally includes 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with the company's guidance and 15% higher than the Q3 mark. 25,161 Model S and X vehicles were produced, which Tesla says is consistent with the long-term run rate goal of ~100K per year.


Tesla shares tumble 9% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices


- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190605

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 4:33 pm

The company also announced that it’s cutting prices on all of its models by $2,000 to help offset a reduction in federal tax credits for drivers who buy electric vehicles. The $7,500 federal tax credit for Tesla cars was cut in half as of Tuesday.


- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html[/quote]

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190618

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 5:15 pm

Until we have quarterly financials in it is hard to say. If you plug the volume data in for 360k cars/yr and assume like-for-like financial outcome then fair value with a PE of (say) 10 would be about $120, not $300+. However dial in (say) avge annual growth of 50% and a PEG of 0.9 implies undervalued at this share price. On that basis I am comfortable with my current holding.

I don't think this is a share you can do anything else on except to watch the company & industry info as it comes in, very carefully indeed. Quantitatively the volume data is about right. The price reduction doesn't fuss me: all it shows me is that GM% will be under pressure (duh!), and that competitors are going to be sweated to work to an ever lower priced incumbent. Qualitatively nothing that has come out on the quarter has revealed anything other than the expected progress, within what I would term the expected noise & error bars.

The quarterly financial data will be the next thing to scrutinise carefully. I think we get that in a few weeks.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190630

Postby BobbyD » January 2nd, 2019, 5:46 pm

dspp wrote:The price reduction doesn't fuss me: all it shows me is that GM% will be under pressure (duh!), and that competitors are going to be sweated to work to an ever lower priced incumbent.


Competitors have an in built £3750 price advantage for 12 months and after that likely a period of $7500 price advantage in Tesla's key market with newer designs and a better charging standard before reverting back to a $3750 advantage the year after they hit their own subsidy caps. It's hard to argue that is a good thing, particularly if Tesla are forced to compete at the lower end where they have so far failed to produce car one.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190669

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2019, 8:29 pm

To be fair the gm chewy bolt will hit subsidy withdrawal only 3m behind the tesla withdrawal. So that makes things pretty even, except that %wise it will impact the bolt more.

Other auto makers are not really on car 1 in USA. But in any case Congress will likely withdraw it now it has been fully utilised by the two domestic manufacturers.

Regards dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190680

Postby Howard » January 2nd, 2019, 9:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
The US economy has slowed causing GM to initiate plant closures, to the annoyance of President Trump, no indication of any slowing in Tesla sales though.

Regards,


Tesla pulled out all the stops to achieve sales in December. Including selling virtually all their inventory of finished cars, demonstrators, loan cars etc. And they didn't quite meet expectations.

Putting their prices down a couple of thousand dollars in January to offset Government grants is another sign that they are trying hard.

And do they still have a huge bank of customers who have paid a deposit up front? These customers have accounted for a much smaller proportion of sales in recent months. Are they waiting for the $35k basic models or have they bought something else?

It will be interesting to see if Tesla's profitability has held up.

As I've said before, the first quarter of 2019 is going to be interesting. Will demand continue to be as strong in the USA? And will the model 3 start to sell profitably in volume in Europe and China?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190789

Postby odysseus2000 » January 3rd, 2019, 1:03 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
The US economy has slowed causing GM to initiate plant closures, to the annoyance of President Trump, no indication of any slowing in Tesla sales though.

Regards,


Tesla pulled out all the stops to achieve sales in December. Including selling virtually all their inventory of finished cars, demonstrators, loan cars etc. And they didn't quite meet expectations.

Putting their prices down a couple of thousand dollars in January to offset Government grants is another sign that they are trying hard.

And do they still have a huge bank of customers who have paid a deposit up front? These customers have accounted for a much smaller proportion of sales in recent months. Are they waiting for the $35k basic models or have they bought something else?

It will be interesting to see if Tesla's profitability has held up.

As I've said before, the first quarter of 2019 is going to be interesting. Will demand continue to be as strong in the USA? And will the model 3 start to sell profitably in volume in Europe and China?

regards

Howard


With the world economy slowing the demand for all things will fall as shown by last nights Apple revenue warning.

We have the FED raising rates, tariff wars, Brexit shenanigans... lots of uncertainties that have recently appeared in the market.

These changing economic forces will hit all of auto, probably legacy worst of all, as sales across their existing hydrocarbon fleets will fall due to slowing growth and competition with electric vehicles.

Imho Tesla are better placed to weather this storm than are legacy.

Things might blow over, the Fed might reverse its raises, tariff disputes may end, Brexit may be smooth... or they all might get worse.

We have a series of market forces that did not exist in the same way a year ago and this makes forecasts very unreliable.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190791

Postby BobbyD » January 3rd, 2019, 1:05 pm

dspp wrote:Other auto makers are not really on car 1 in USA. But in any case Congress will likely withdraw it now it has been fully utilised by the two domestic manufacturers.




https://insideevs.com/top-6-automakers- ... dit-limit/ wrote:
There are six manufacturers most advanced in progressing towards 200,000, including 2 that have gone over.

...

4. BMW Group – 79,679

...

3. Toyota – 93,011

....

2. Ford – 111,715

...

1. Nissan – 126,875

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190797

Postby dspp » January 3rd, 2019, 1:29 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:Other auto makers are not really on car 1 in USA. But in any case Congress will likely withdraw it now it has been fully utilised by the two domestic manufacturers.




https://insideevs.com/top-6-automakers- ... dit-limit/ wrote:
There are six manufacturers most advanced in progressing towards 200,000, including 2 that have gone over.

...

4. BMW Group – 79,679

...

3. Toyota – 93,011

....

2. Ford – 111,715

...

1. Nissan – 126,875


Apologies but I was posting from a phone the other day so probably did not explain myself well enough.

The Fords are very small batteries, really just "compliance cars", check out that link of yours. The rest are foreign, and also mostly compliance cars. So in terms of full fat BEVs the Teslas and the GMs were really the only option, and the others are not offering 'proper' BEVs so I stand by that point that they are not at 'car 1' in terms of having a competitive BEV product.

Right now foreign car manufacturers are not an easy target to defend for a subsidy in USA. I'm not at all certain that the tax credit will be phased out, but I do think it is highly likely. Hence my second point.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190810

Postby dspp » January 3rd, 2019, 2:07 pm

VW ID first drive video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2Tqw9LX3QE

"hitting the streets in 2020" at Golf diesel pricing

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190829

Postby BobbyD » January 3rd, 2019, 3:16 pm

dspp wrote:VW ID first drive video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2Tqw9LX3QE

"hitting the streets in 2020" at Golf diesel pricing


Nice.

Thanks for the link.


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