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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#190831

Postby BobbyD » January 3rd, 2019, 3:23 pm

dspp wrote:
Apologies but I was posting from a phone the other day so probably did not explain myself well enough.

The Fords are very small batteries, really just "compliance cars", check out that link of yours. The rest are foreign, and also mostly compliance cars. So in terms of full fat BEVs the Teslas and the GMs were really the only option, and the others are not offering 'proper' BEVs so I stand by that point that they are not at 'car 1' in terms of having a competitive BEV product.

Right now foreign car manufacturers are not an easy target to defend for a subsidy in USA. I'm not at all certain that the tax credit will be phased out, but I do think it is highly likely. Hence my second point.

regards, dspp


Ok, but I'm not sure what difference that makes, compliance cars or not there are several companies halfway through their allowance, pulling it now would look partisan and annoy a lot of people.... and foreign car manufacturers may be easy to screw over politically, ask the people of Spartanberg how they feel about local employers though...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190865

Postby Howard » January 3rd, 2019, 5:30 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:With the world economy slowing the demand for all things will fall as shown by last nights Apple revenue warning.

We have the FED raising rates, tariff wars, Brexit shenanigans... lots of uncertainties that have recently appeared in the market.

These changing economic forces will hit all of auto, probably legacy worst of all, as sales across their existing hydrocarbon fleets will fall due to slowing growth and competition with electric vehicles.

Imho Tesla are better placed to weather this storm than are legacy.

Things might blow over, the Fed might reverse its raises, tariff disputes may end, Brexit may be smooth... or they all might get worse.

We have a series of market forces that did not exist in the same way a year ago and this makes forecasts very unreliable.

Regards,


Ody

I'm pleased you are coming round to accepting that forecasts are proving unreliable.

So forecasts that Tesla will be wiping the floor with established European manufacturers in the next three years are looking just that much more stretched.

To achieve significant worldwide sales Tesla will have to show that they can profitably sell and maintain large volumes of cars at significantly less than $35,000 dollars each. And they haven't yet sold a single car at $35k. Is the average price of a model 3 still around $49k?

If China's economy turns down in the near future the potential for premium electric car sales volumes will continue to be relatively small. It's going to be interesting to see if Tesla can simultaneously develop significant sales in Europe and China whilst serving a US home market. The costs per car of distribution worldwide are significant and Tesla haven't yet proved they can make the margin required to cover this.

We know that Tesla has been very successful in selling premium cars in sunny California. It will be interesting to see how the Model 3 performs in the winter months in the Eastern States where the climate is much colder. Their reliability vs ICE cars in colder conditions will be important in influencing the next swathe of potential customers. As someone who has owned a plug-in hybrid for two years I could see how much the electric only range is reduced in cold weather when the heater is on.

From a marketing viewpoint the next three to six months are critical. Tesla and its supporters have set expectations so high that if it is seen to be under-performing for whatever reasons then the market and potential consumers will be re-evaluating the brand.

From an investor's viewpoint, there are a few questions to be answered and "Tesla bulls" will be hoping the company shows that it is increasing its profitability so that future growth can be financed.

Regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#190903

Postby odysseus2000 » January 3rd, 2019, 9:58 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:With the world economy slowing the demand for all things will fall as shown by last nights Apple revenue warning.

We have the FED raising rates, tariff wars, Brexit shenanigans... lots of uncertainties that have recently appeared in the market.

These changing economic forces will hit all of auto, probably legacy worst of all, as sales across their existing hydrocarbon fleets will fall due to slowing growth and competition with electric vehicles.

Imho Tesla are better placed to weather this storm than are legacy.

Things might blow over, the Fed might reverse its raises, tariff disputes may end, Brexit may be smooth... or they all might get worse.

We have a series of market forces that did not exist in the same way a year ago and this makes forecasts very unreliable.

Regards,


Ody

I'm pleased you are coming round to accepting that forecasts are proving unreliable.

So forecasts that Tesla will be wiping the floor with established European manufacturers in the next three years are looking just that much more stretched.

To achieve significant worldwide sales Tesla will have to show that they can profitably sell and maintain large volumes of cars at significantly less than $35,000 dollars each. And they haven't yet sold a single car at $35k. Is the average price of a model 3 still around $49k?

If China's economy turns down in the near future the potential for premium electric car sales volumes will continue to be relatively small. It's going to be interesting to see if Tesla can simultaneously develop significant sales in Europe and China whilst serving a US home market. The costs per car of distribution worldwide are significant and Tesla haven't yet proved they can make the margin required to cover this.

We know that Tesla has been very successful in selling premium cars in sunny California. It will be interesting to see how the Model 3 performs in the winter months in the Eastern States where the climate is much colder. Their reliability vs ICE cars in colder conditions will be important in influencing the next swathe of potential customers. As someone who has owned a plug-in hybrid for two years I could see how much the electric only range is reduced in cold weather when the heater is on.

From a marketing viewpoint the next three to six months are critical. Tesla and its supporters have set expectations so high that if it is seen to be under-performing for whatever reasons then the market and potential consumers will be re-evaluating the brand.

From an investor's viewpoint, there are a few questions to be answered and "Tesla bulls" will be hoping the company shows that it is increasing its profitability so that future growth can be financed.

Regards

Howard


I think you mis-understood what I was saying.

As I see things now we are in a very different market environment one that suits no manufacturer as seen today by the US ISM figures which are the worst since 2008. Whether things get a lot worse or this is the worst I do not know, but until we get some clarity it is very difficult to see very far ahead.

If we are heading into a 2008 like event then motor manufactures will likely go bust. We have already seen GM shut factories.

If this is just another recession brought on by tariff disputes and interest rate rises then nothing much changes.

Currently I don't know, no one does. Sure there are folk saying this is nothing, there are always such folk and mostly they are right, but ...

If we enter a serious slow down then I expect Tesla to prosper as they have the best cars imho and only the folk with large and sustainable incomes will be buying and they like the best, but not as well as if we don't have a slow down and governments begin to bring in carbon taxes following the lead of Canada.

So far there is nothing that I have seen from Legacy auto that makes me feel they are even now set up to go all electric in the short term and the longer they delay and try to keep existing production running the more trouble imho they are in.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191032

Postby dspp » January 4th, 2019, 2:54 pm

Most of the bears make the point that Tesla is at best production constrained with no production capacity increases due in 2019, or at worst demand constrained. Given that the 3 has not been shipping to China or Europe in previous quarters I think we can put the demand constraint hypothesis to one side for a few quarters. However they do have a fair point about when additional production capacity might come onstream, as the base case has to be nothing more until Shanghai comes on stream, and a query as to whether Fremont has or has not reached plateau.

This chap has previously commented on the Lathrop building and what it might be used for. I don't know whether his guess (that it is to be a 'Y' facility) is correct, but I agree with his underlying hypothesis that it will add capacity, and do so sooner rather than later. I also tend to agree with his revenue & profit projections. Worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423136 ... &dr=1#alt2

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191054

Postby BobbyD » January 4th, 2019, 4:00 pm

dspp wrote:This chap has previously commented on the Lathrop building and what it might be used for. I don't know whether his guess (that it is to be a 'Y' facility) is correct, but I agree with his underlying hypothesis that it will add capacity, and do so sooner rather than later.


I reckon it's Elon Musk's personal compliance department.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191162

Postby BobbyD » January 5th, 2019, 3:30 am

Azealia Banks calls out Elon Musk for trying to discredit her amid lawsuit
Rapper has become embroiled in the fallout over the CEO’s controversial tweet about taking Tesla private


- https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/ ... agram-post

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191672

Postby Howard » January 7th, 2019, 12:38 pm

It would be interesting to read some engineers’ comments on this video.

As you will know from my previous comments I’m not an engineer. But I have had the experience of buying a number of new cars, both premium and more modest.

And, from a marketing viewpoint I know how much brand image counts.

If I had just received a new car with the paintwork faults of this new Tesla 3, I’d be horrified! What does it suggest about the quality of the “other bits” of the car.

The analysis of the gaps and mis-alignments in the car was interesting. I’m not sure I would have noticed these except perhaps the biggest differences. However it did motivate me to go to the garage and look carefully at my wife’s Golf. To a layman there were no obvious mis-alignments and it appeared to be a quality fit. Similarly for my BMW.

This guy ordered a Tesla on November 27th and it was delivered on November 29th with 21.7 miles on the clock.

Are Tesla purchasers different from “normal” premium car buyers and overlook bodywork issues because they are so pleased with new technology?

Let’s hope the Tesla auto driving function doesn’t have too many gaps!

Not sure how significant these issues are but as I always say - “time will tell”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSLTNjGI8hw

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191691

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 1:46 pm

He made one good points re the poor paint job, the rest of his analysis was ridiculous.

No point using external part of a caliper to measure internal sizes, he might as well have used a wooden ruler & then he was stating his measurements as accurate with no uncertainties. Pointless!

Finger tips can easily feel 0.001 inches (25 microns) so who knows what the differences where.

Click bait, nothing more!

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191704

Postby PeterGray » January 7th, 2019, 2:32 pm

A little one sided, Ody. You wouldn't say that if he was talking about a BMW or a VG car

Yes, those small errors in lining up wouldn't worry anyone in normal use. But the comparison with the Subaru is telling. It's what you would expect, certainly from something like a Subaru, that the engineering tolerances are close, and the whole thing is assembled with precision.

That doesn't appear to be true of this Tesla. That lack of precision may be of not real importance whatsoever, but I would have more confidence in the underlying reliability and build of a car built with the Subaru's bodywork tolerances than the Tesla. It's not terminal, but it's just another reflection of Tesla having a lot of work to do if they are to seriously challenge the established car makers. If that sort of lack of precision is reflected under the body then they are likely to have a lot of problems, and bad press, on their way.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191725

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 4:21 pm

PeterGray wrote:A little one sided, Ody. You wouldn't say that if he was talking about a BMW or a VG car

Yes, those small errors in lining up wouldn't worry anyone in normal use. But the comparison with the Subaru is telling. It's what you would expect, certainly from something like a Subaru, that the engineering tolerances are close, and the whole thing is assembled with precision.

That doesn't appear to be true of this Tesla. That lack of precision may be of not real importance whatsoever, but I would have more confidence in the underlying reliability and build of a car built with the Subaru's bodywork tolerances than the Tesla. It's not terminal, but it's just another reflection of Tesla having a lot of work to do if they are to seriously challenge the established car makers. If that sort of lack of precision is reflected under the body then they are likely to have a lot of problems, and bad press, on their way.


No my point was not about Tesla, it was about the methodology of the measurements.

If the bloke had a clue about how to use a vernier I would take his data more seriously, but his measurements were worthless.

Many years ago I saw a new car bought from the Leyland group in Oxford. The rubber around the windscreen had not been pushed in all the way and came out in a loop.

Another acquaintance bought a brand new tr7 and was driving it home only to find no one could see his rear lights because some one hadn't put the connectors in. He went back to the garage and screamed at the guy in charge of pre-delivery inspection who told him they didn't check lights!

Those were what I would describe as unacceptable.

This could have been a useful video but as it was so badly done I filed it as click bait with no intension to inform viewers.

The only decent content was the paint errors which apparently Tesla are going to put right, but they should not have been there.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191736

Postby Howard » January 7th, 2019, 4:55 pm

Ody

I think you are shooting the messenger here! And clutching at straws by criticising his method of showing us the size of the gaps. One doesn't have to be an engineer to see that the body panels were not very well aligned.

If you look at some of the other reviews this guy has done, he knows his stuff.

Worth looking at his review of the Nissan Leaf. He praises the car, gives a very positive and thoughtful analysis of why every average American family should have an electric car as their second car. He also makes an interesting criticism of the car's link with Apple Play. As he says, it's a tiny issue but the sort of thing that would drive a customer mad! Also, having driven a Nissan Leaf myself, he has a very valid criticism of its "Propilot" uneccessarily cautious braking.

We drivers of new luxury cars like Mercedes, don't worry about your "black death" experiences 200,000 miles later. We want beautiful new cars with lovely paintwork and we definitely don't want cars with door gaps like British Leyland Austin Allegros!

Emotional support of Musk and Tesla is to be applauded. But investors have to look at all the evidence surely. There is a valid concern that Tesla are rushing to make cars and that they have quality issues which they must address.

Let's hope he had an atypical rogue car and that Tesla gives him good after sales service.

regards

Howard

Nissan Leaf review here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo4byxhI6kY

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191746

Postby Howard » January 7th, 2019, 5:36 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
If the bloke had a clue about how to use a vernier I would take his data more seriously, but his measurements were worthless.





Ody

The reviewer does know how to use a caliper. Perhaps you didn’t watch him measuring the glass gap at 10.48 minutes? I'm surprised you missed this.

He explains that he didn’t want to risk scratching the paintwork when measuring the body gaps. (see below).

Perhaps Tesla should hire him as a quality checker - he seems to know his stuff!

Regards

Howard


"I know how to use a caliper haha. The reason I'm not using the other end of the caliper (as demonstrated at 10:48, when measuring a glass gap) is because even though it's plastic, it'd be enough to scratch the paint if I wasn't super careful with it. Easier to hover over it, get it as close as possible (with my eyes, not the camera you're watching from), and not worry about scratching the areas I'm measuring."

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191765

Postby BobbyD » January 7th, 2019, 7:24 pm

Daimler buying lots of battery cells and opening large battery assembly plant network, whilst planning to reduce reliance on Cobalt before eliminating it in move to solid state, plus brief overview of different battery chemistries used, difficult to quote without quoting extensively: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daiml ... KKBN1OA0O2

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191767

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 7:30 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
If the bloke had a clue about how to use a vernier I would take his data more seriously, but his measurements were worthless.





Ody

The reviewer does know how to use a caliper. Perhaps you didn’t watch him measuring the glass gap at 10.48 minutes? I'm surprised you missed this.

He explains that he didn’t want to risk scratching the paintwork when measuring the body gaps. (see below).

Perhaps Tesla should hire him as a quality checker - he seems to know his stuff!

Regards

Howard


"I know how to use a caliper haha. The reason I'm not using the other end of the caliper (as demonstrated at 10:48, when measuring a glass gap) is because even though it's plastic, it'd be enough to scratch the paint if I wasn't super careful with it. Easier to hover over it, get it as close as possible (with my eyes, not the camera you're watching from), and not worry about scratching the areas I'm measuring."


I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.

Anyone with even a base scientific or engineering skill would not not dream of doing the measurements the way it was done.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191777

Postby BobbyD » January 7th, 2019, 8:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.


This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191785

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 8:21 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.


This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...


The reviewer probably wants Tesla to argue with him, it would be good for views.

Of the faults shown, Orange peel is likely contamination, the scratches: Either it was out of the oven too soon before the paint hardened, or was scratched during delivery and the dust spot was indeed likely dust

Nonetheless automotive paint with a clear coat is extremely hard and durable.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191788

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 8:34 pm

BobbyD wrote:Daimler buying lots of battery cells and opening large battery assembly plant network, whilst planning to reduce reliance on Cobalt before eliminating it in move to solid state, plus brief overview of different battery chemistries used, difficult to quote without quoting extensively: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daiml ... KKBN1OA0O2


As anyone demonstrated a practical solid state battery?

Lots of folk say they will use them but I can find neither a price or anyone who says they can make them commercially, just various sites saying they are producing them, but providing no details.

The idea is around 70 years old, so one might have thought if it was possible that someone would be making them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191793

Postby dspp » January 7th, 2019, 8:51 pm

My experience of US automotive paint is that it is much lower quality than EU or Japanese paint jobs. Just look around you as you cruise the states, and all you see is faded peeling paint. That has been a specific concern of mine as they will need to compete outside the US from US-origin production for a goodly few years, which is not a normal state of affairs for US auto. Tesla do need to improve paint quality in many respects.

Tesla is known to have had real issues with their particular Fremont factory paint shop. They had to basically strip & rebuild it. The problems are well known - see for example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/tesla-f ... rkers.html and this has contributed to the historical paint quality issues. That said the video paint is a) some delivery scrapes, but b) also dates from after the paint shop rebuild and so should have been fixed.

My auto colleagues once explained panel gaps to me, and it sounded complicated with many contributing factors. Personally it is not something I get wound up over as I only drive bangernomics that have been dunted about. If I was prioritising mfg improvements it would not be at the top of my list (paint would be high, capacity would be higher). But eventually it does all need to be sweated.

More important for me are the tolerances in the active parts (motors etc) and there is a) less of that in a BEV than in ICE, and b) not a great deal of evidence that there are significant issues with Tesla mfg in this area.

Overall this is about where the evidence is that Tesla is at on the quality pathway. It needs attention, but it is not quite the #1 issue for mfg. That is #1 capacity expansion (USA, China) and #2 model introduction (Y). I'd put charger buildout at #3 and quality at #4. Autonomy (FSD) is a R&D/PD item, not a mfg item so not ranked, but if I had to resource allocate it would get #2.5.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191804

Postby PeterGray » January 7th, 2019, 9:14 pm

My auto colleagues once explained panel gaps to me, and it sounded complicated with many contributing factors. Personally it is not something I get wound up over as I only drive bangernomics that have been dunted about. If I was prioritising mfg improvements it would not be at the top of my list (paint would be high, capacity would be higher). But eventually it does all need to be sweated.

Slightly miss matched panels wouldn't worry me directly, for much the same reason. But I would worry at what they suggest about the tolerances where you don't see them. And if I can buy a car where I don't have to worry about that as an alternative I would do so (and importantly in terms of this discussion - I doubt I'd be alone).

Overall this is about where the evidence is that Tesla is at on the quality pathway. It needs attention, but it is not quite the #1 issue for mfg. That is #1 capacity expansion (USA, China) and #2 model introduction (Y). I'd put charger buildout at #3 and quality at #4. Autonomy (FSD) is a R&D/PD item, not a mfg item so not ranked, but if I had to resource allocate it would get #2.5.

But the problem there is that a big push to production expansion, as over the summer, is likely to increase the probability of taking the eye off the ball on quality. I agree, from the business model point of view volume is probably #1, but as a potential customer - would I really want to buy a car at this stage of the manufacturers journey? When I have would have possible alternatives from manufacturers with loads of experience and proven quality control, who don't need to rush to more production at all costs, why would I?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191912

Postby odysseus2000 » January 8th, 2019, 11:19 am

Ellison has a $1 billion stake in Tesla:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ling-shows

Regards,


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