Page 69 of 504

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 17th, 2019, 3:25 pm
by odysseus2000
ReformedCharacter wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

I'm not sure that is correct. AFAIK the types of batteries in 'phones have liquid or polymer electrolytes and aren't considered 'solid state'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

RC


Yes, phone batteries are lithium ion polymer, lipo for short.

These are fabulous batteries, the best I have ever used, but if you peruse the sites of competitors to Tesla, they go on about how they will use solid state batteries as they have many advantages.

As far as I have yet found there are no commercial solid state batteries in existence, just some potentially interesting lab tests and the odd link to secret production.

If Tesla competitors are to use solid state batteries they are either promoting something that they believe will happen or are presenting longitudinal inexactitudes to hurt sales of existing electric vehicles, by saying a new technology will come shortly.

I am interested in solid state batteries for a number of reasons but so far I have found no one who will sell me, save for some tiny surface mount devices of extremely low capacity.

I just wondered if i was missing something.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 18th, 2019, 1:07 pm
by BobbyD
Tesla cuts 7% of its workforce, saying there’s a ‘very difficult’ road ahead

KEY POINTS

“Tesla will need to make these cuts while increasing the Model 3 production rate and making many manufacturing engineering improvements in the coming months,” Musk said

This week, the company discontinued the cheapest versions of its Model S sedans and Model X SUVs and Musk said it would also ditch its customer referral program.

Musk said Tesla faces “an extremely difficult challenge” in making its products a competitive alternative to traditional vehicles and energy products.

...

Tesla is cutting its full-time staff headcount by approximately 7 percent, as it ramps up production of its Model 3 sedans, CEO Elon Musk said Friday.

The announcement come on the back of various cost-cutting measures the company has made of late, as it looks to reduce the price of its products and boost margins.

Tesla shares fell almost 8 percent in premarket trade following the news.

In an email to employees, Musk notes that the company faces a “very difficult” road ahead in its long-term goal to sell affordable renewable energy products at scale, noting the company is younger than other players in the industry.

...


Musk said profit in the fourth quarter is likely to come in lower than in the previous quarter, but added that he hopes Tesla will achieve a “tiny profit” in Q4.



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-t ... rcent.html

In a company update, Musk said: “While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people. Tesla has only been producing cars for about a decade and we’re up against massive, entrenched competitors.

“The net effect is that Tesla must work much harder than other manufacturers to survive while building affordable, sustainable products.”


- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -elon-musk

Full text of email from tesla.com:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/tesla- ... edirect=no

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 18th, 2019, 4:20 pm
by BobbyD
Currently down 9%.

There's one thing you can't deny about Tesla, it is volatile.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 18th, 2019, 10:54 pm
by Howard
At least Elon Musk is realistic about Tesla’s task ahead. Quoting from his email to employees today he says:

"Sorry for all these numbers, but I want to make sure that you know all the facts and figures and understand that the road ahead is very difficult. This is not new for us – we have always faced significant challenges – but it is the reality we face. There are many companies that can offer a better work-life balance, because they are larger and more mature or in industries that are not so voraciously competitive."

The views of those optimists who forecast that Tesla will quickly crush the opposition aren’t shared by Musk today. He knows Tesla has an uphill struggle to produce cars that will succeed in selling large volumes in world markets. He has a wealthy Californian fan-base who have accounted for around half the sales of Model 3s so far. But conquering more price-sensitive markets further afield will be more difficult.

It looks as though all car manufacturers are going to have a tough time in the short term. Some may suffer significantly but ICE cars still look more profitable over the next two or three years. And if there is a way of making EVs profitably for the mass market, the competitors are working on it just as fast as Tesla.

Today’s profit warning is a sign that demand for expensive Teslas may be slowing. It’s a bold investor who commits large sums to the brand. A billion dollar investment yesterday is worth around 13% less today!

We’ll see if the shares recover, but I have a feeling that Musk knows that the next quarter is going to be tough. And the next three years may be tougher still.

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 21st, 2019, 10:49 am
by odysseus2000
Hi Howard,

I disagree with most of your assessment. Let us look at what Tesla said in these two extracts:

Tesla statement:

As we all experienced first-hand, last year was the most challenging in Tesla’s history. However, thanks to your efforts, 2018 was also the most successful year in Tesla’s history: we delivered almost as many cars as we did in all of 2017 in the last quarter alone and nearly as many cars last year as we did in all the prior years of Tesla’s existence combined! Model 3 also became the best-selling premium vehicle of 2018 in the US. This is truly remarkable and something that few thought possible just a short time ago.

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.


So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 21st, 2019, 11:34 am
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:Hi Howard,

I disagree with most of your assessment. Let us look at what Tesla said in these two extracts:

Tesla statement:

As we all experienced first-hand, last year was the most challenging in Tesla’s history. However, thanks to your efforts, 2018 was also the most successful year in Tesla’s history: we delivered almost as many cars as we did in all of 2017 in the last quarter alone and nearly as many cars last year as we did in all the prior years of Tesla’s existence combined! Model 3 also became the best-selling premium vehicle of 2018 in the US. This is truly remarkable and something that few thought possible just a short time ago.

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.


So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,


I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 21st, 2019, 11:43 am
by odysseus2000
I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?

There is Musk justifying to his employees why he is firing workers and giving them a reason to work harder and there is reality.

Legacy has serious issues and they are trying to PR them away and failing to tackle the underlying problems.

This is what legacy always does when faced with competitive threats that would cost it money to oppose and it always fails.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 21st, 2019, 11:57 am
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?

There is Musk justifying to his employees why he is firing workers and giving them a reason to work harder and there is reality.

Legacy has serious issues and they are trying to PR them away and failing to tackle the underlying problems.

This is what legacy always does when faced with competitive threats that would cost it money to oppose and it always fails.

Regards,


Then I saw her face...

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 21st, 2019, 8:18 pm
by dspp
The recent 7% layoff after a 30% hiring expansion, and accompanying words sounded about right to me. Reading it, I was struck by how sensible and CEO-like Musk was begining to sound. I hesitate to say mature and etc, but I thought it was an improvement. Maybe he is beginning to understand the reality of what happens when you lay off a person.

Anyway I have been somewhat nervous about the lack of news on EU homologation (certification) for the model 3. Phew, it has arrived now. Looks like Tesla does certification on a JIT basis.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3424450-t ... email_link

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 9:28 am
by BobbyD
dspp wrote: I was struck by how sensible and CEO-like Musk was begining to sound. I hesitate to say mature and etc, but I thought it was an improvement. Maybe he is beginning to understand the reality of what happens when you lay off a person.


That's probably a result of that new Musk compliance unit building you posted links about a few weeks ago!

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 4:28 pm
by Howard
odysseus2000 wrote:Hi Howard,

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.[/i]

So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,


Ody

I'm not convinced that Tesla will take many sales from VW in Europe. Tesla are planning to offer a rather dated looking saloon for a very high price. I don't think Model 3s will be competing with VW Golfs. Most new Golfs are purchased for much lower prices and their variants offer the convenience of a hatchback or a small SUV. And VW make very good margins on selling those ICE cars. Yes, there is a desire to shift to lower emission cars but it isn't happening fast enough to help Tesla over their short-term problems.

As a purchaser of German (and UK-made) cars over the years I don't think the German car manufacturers are that bothered about Brexit. For most of my car-purchasing experience they sold at a premium in the UK and were significantly cheaper to buy in Brussels or Frankfurt than in London. If they have a tariff of 10% imposed on them after Brexit in the UK they will shrug it off. Who'd buy an unreliable Tesla if you can buy a cheaper more reliable VW, Mercedes or BMW?

I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.

I disagree with your closing comment. Over the last month, Tesla have been looking weaker by the day! If they are to realise their valuation as a super-stock they are really going to have to fly over the next year.

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 4:55 pm
by Meatyfool
Howard wrote:I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.


No satellite owner is going to put their very expensive purchase on an untested rocket. Why is putting a Tesla in space any worse than putting a massive lump of concrete in space - which is the usual payload for a first launch.

And the effect of all the rocket launches every made are a squeaky fart compared to the damage done to the atmosphere from cars etc.

Nothing to see here, move along ...

Meatyfool..

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 6:18 pm
by PeterGray
The issue is not the test launch but the tasteless bit of self promotion involved in putting a car up there. I don't know how much fuel that required, but it won't have been trivial. On top of which near Earth space has a real problem with debris accumulation and increasing it with a pointless bit of willie waggling doesn't suggest a high degree of environmental concern.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 6:49 pm
by dspp
PeterGray wrote:The issue is not the test launch but the tasteless bit of self promotion involved in putting a car up there. I don't know how much fuel that required, but it won't have been trivial. On top of which near Earth space has a real problem with debris accumulation and increasing it with a pointless bit of willie waggling doesn't suggest a high degree of environmental concern.


It will have been the same amount of fuel as any other test mass.

It is not in near earth orbit, quite the reverse, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk ... t_tracking

- dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 8:58 pm
by odysseus2000
An interesting video on potential changes to Tesla batteries now that they are with drawing the 75kWh cells.

How reliable this is I can't say, but a lot of it seems reasonable to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJMG01wesTs

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 9:21 pm
by odysseus2000
Ody

I'm not convinced that Tesla will take many sales from VW in Europe. Tesla are planning to offer a rather dated looking saloon for a very high price. I don't think Model 3s will be competing with VW Golfs. Most new Golfs are purchased for much lower prices and their variants offer the convenience of a hatchback or a small SUV. And VW make very good margins on selling those ICE cars. Yes, there is a desire to shift to lower emission cars but it isn't happening fast enough to help Tesla over their short-term problems.

As a purchaser of German (and UK-made) cars over the years I don't think the German car manufacturers are that bothered about Brexit. For most of my car-purchasing experience they sold at a premium in the UK and were significantly cheaper to buy in Brussels or Frankfurt than in London. If they have a tariff of 10% imposed on them after Brexit in the UK they will shrug it off. Who'd buy an unreliable Tesla if you can buy a cheaper more reliable VW, Mercedes or BMW?

I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.

I disagree with your closing comment. Over the last month, Tesla have been looking weaker by the day! If they are to realise their valuation as a super-stock they are really going to have to fly over the next year.

regards

Howard


The issue here is not whether you would or would not buy a Tesla, but how many other potential buyers think like you. I am sure there are many, but by no means everyone.

In my extremely unscientific research I find many folk who are interested and when one Tesla arrives and folk get to have a ride in it they tend to get enthused and want one. People like this may be a tiny fraction of the population I don't know enough folk to be sure although they are by no means special in terms of jobs, wealth, interests etc and I suspect there are enough similar folk to bring some good sales of Tesla motors to many in Europe as the model 3 begins to arrive and the coming models too.

My reading of the situation is that Tesla are now the strongest they have ever been and growing stronger by the day with a fabulous portfolio of vehicles for the 21st century, future proofed against the politicians laws on the environment and with performance, ergonomics and safety that are far ahead of all other vehicle makers.

We shall see.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 10:01 pm
by BobbyD

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 22nd, 2019, 11:06 pm
by odysseus2000
BobbyD wrote:Performance EV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s


Rather boring video, badly shot and dis-jointed.

Sure they made a fast one off car, but the majority of the VW line is still 20th century technology

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 23rd, 2019, 1:00 pm
by Howard
It is fascinating to watch developments at Tesla. Whilst I have found Elon Musk's recent behaviour most unattractive I am impressed with his ability to keep so many plates spinning on sticks.

The latest issues the company are grappling with are queues at charging stations in the USA and the sometimes lack of etiquette in whose turn is next. There is believable anecdotal evidence that the number of Model 3 cars which hit the roads in the last few months are causing some congestion. It is early days yet, but one source of information on this is #Teslaqueue on Twitter, where Tesla owners are the posters.

Another spinning plate is the relationship with Panasonic. There are signs of strain in this business link. If these prove to be significant what will this mean for Tesla's battery superiority? If the rumoured Panasonic agreement with Toyota goes ahead, will this mean that the Tesla "moat" is threatened? Linking up with a Chinese battery manufacturer may help, but it will involve Tesla sharing their battery expertise with the Chinese. It is already cheaper to fuel a duel fuel Toyota Prius than a similar sized Tesla 3 and the Toyota has a range of 550 miles. If Toyota improve their batteries even more with Panasonic technology will this mean that their cars are a threat? We know that a Toyota car is much more reliable than a Tesla at the moment. Will Tesla be able to improve reliability with the Series 3?

A lot of these issues aren't engineering factors but marketing and strategic partnership issues. Is the board of Tesla going to solve them all in the near future? Whilst it's nice to have a board member who has invested a billion in the company, he may prove rather difficult to manage if his investment shrinks substantially.

I think we all agree that this is a fascinating battle which may develop fast in the next few months. We probably also agree that EV cars are going to be the winners of the war - but who will gain the largest market share and make them profitably?

regards

Howard

See https://seekingalpha.com/article/423481 ... -dust#alt1 for more information about the Panasonic issue.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 23rd, 2019, 1:54 pm
by odysseus2000
Larry Ellison is worth over $50b, so his Tesla stake is about 2% of his wealth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Ellison

Yes, there is more demand for superchargers as the model 3 sells, which is why I believe solar roofs and storage are set to grow strongly.

The whole Tesla battery situation is very unclear. Some argue that the gigafactory is all Panasonic, dressed as Tesla for tax reasons, others that Tesla has significantly increased its involvement and will use this knowledge in China, others that Tesla won't make batteries in China, but simply buy in. I have no idea.

The big currently hidden Gorilla is will governments begin to increases taxes on hydrocarbons. If this happens everything tilts towards battery propulsion.

Everything comes down to will Tesla cars keep selling and in the short term how will the Model 3 do in Europe now that it has passed the validation procedure.

Regards,