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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#195243

Postby odysseus2000 » January 21st, 2019, 11:43 am

I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?

There is Musk justifying to his employees why he is firing workers and giving them a reason to work harder and there is reality.

Legacy has serious issues and they are trying to PR them away and failing to tackle the underlying problems.

This is what legacy always does when faced with competitive threats that would cost it money to oppose and it always fails.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195248

Postby BobbyD » January 21st, 2019, 11:57 am

odysseus2000 wrote:I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?

There is Musk justifying to his employees why he is firing workers and giving them a reason to work harder and there is reality.

Legacy has serious issues and they are trying to PR them away and failing to tackle the underlying problems.

This is what legacy always does when faced with competitive threats that would cost it money to oppose and it always fails.

Regards,


Then I saw her face...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195393

Postby dspp » January 21st, 2019, 8:18 pm

The recent 7% layoff after a 30% hiring expansion, and accompanying words sounded about right to me. Reading it, I was struck by how sensible and CEO-like Musk was begining to sound. I hesitate to say mature and etc, but I thought it was an improvement. Maybe he is beginning to understand the reality of what happens when you lay off a person.

Anyway I have been somewhat nervous about the lack of news on EU homologation (certification) for the model 3. Phew, it has arrived now. Looks like Tesla does certification on a JIT basis.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3424450-t ... email_link

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195481

Postby BobbyD » January 22nd, 2019, 9:28 am

dspp wrote: I was struck by how sensible and CEO-like Musk was begining to sound. I hesitate to say mature and etc, but I thought it was an improvement. Maybe he is beginning to understand the reality of what happens when you lay off a person.


That's probably a result of that new Musk compliance unit building you posted links about a few weeks ago!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195621

Postby Howard » January 22nd, 2019, 4:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Hi Howard,

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.[/i]

So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,


Ody

I'm not convinced that Tesla will take many sales from VW in Europe. Tesla are planning to offer a rather dated looking saloon for a very high price. I don't think Model 3s will be competing with VW Golfs. Most new Golfs are purchased for much lower prices and their variants offer the convenience of a hatchback or a small SUV. And VW make very good margins on selling those ICE cars. Yes, there is a desire to shift to lower emission cars but it isn't happening fast enough to help Tesla over their short-term problems.

As a purchaser of German (and UK-made) cars over the years I don't think the German car manufacturers are that bothered about Brexit. For most of my car-purchasing experience they sold at a premium in the UK and were significantly cheaper to buy in Brussels or Frankfurt than in London. If they have a tariff of 10% imposed on them after Brexit in the UK they will shrug it off. Who'd buy an unreliable Tesla if you can buy a cheaper more reliable VW, Mercedes or BMW?

I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.

I disagree with your closing comment. Over the last month, Tesla have been looking weaker by the day! If they are to realise their valuation as a super-stock they are really going to have to fly over the next year.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195630

Postby Meatyfool » January 22nd, 2019, 4:55 pm

Howard wrote:I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.


No satellite owner is going to put their very expensive purchase on an untested rocket. Why is putting a Tesla in space any worse than putting a massive lump of concrete in space - which is the usual payload for a first launch.

And the effect of all the rocket launches every made are a squeaky fart compared to the damage done to the atmosphere from cars etc.

Nothing to see here, move along ...

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195662

Postby PeterGray » January 22nd, 2019, 6:18 pm

The issue is not the test launch but the tasteless bit of self promotion involved in putting a car up there. I don't know how much fuel that required, but it won't have been trivial. On top of which near Earth space has a real problem with debris accumulation and increasing it with a pointless bit of willie waggling doesn't suggest a high degree of environmental concern.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195670

Postby dspp » January 22nd, 2019, 6:49 pm

PeterGray wrote:The issue is not the test launch but the tasteless bit of self promotion involved in putting a car up there. I don't know how much fuel that required, but it won't have been trivial. On top of which near Earth space has a real problem with debris accumulation and increasing it with a pointless bit of willie waggling doesn't suggest a high degree of environmental concern.


It will have been the same amount of fuel as any other test mass.

It is not in near earth orbit, quite the reverse, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk ... t_tracking

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195700

Postby odysseus2000 » January 22nd, 2019, 8:58 pm

An interesting video on potential changes to Tesla batteries now that they are with drawing the 75kWh cells.

How reliable this is I can't say, but a lot of it seems reasonable to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJMG01wesTs

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#195706

Postby odysseus2000 » January 22nd, 2019, 9:21 pm

Ody

I'm not convinced that Tesla will take many sales from VW in Europe. Tesla are planning to offer a rather dated looking saloon for a very high price. I don't think Model 3s will be competing with VW Golfs. Most new Golfs are purchased for much lower prices and their variants offer the convenience of a hatchback or a small SUV. And VW make very good margins on selling those ICE cars. Yes, there is a desire to shift to lower emission cars but it isn't happening fast enough to help Tesla over their short-term problems.

As a purchaser of German (and UK-made) cars over the years I don't think the German car manufacturers are that bothered about Brexit. For most of my car-purchasing experience they sold at a premium in the UK and were significantly cheaper to buy in Brussels or Frankfurt than in London. If they have a tariff of 10% imposed on them after Brexit in the UK they will shrug it off. Who'd buy an unreliable Tesla if you can buy a cheaper more reliable VW, Mercedes or BMW?

I know VW have severely dented their reputation with dieselgate, but Elon Musk doesn't have a very good environmental pedigree either. His vanity project of sending a car into space burnt around 450 tonnes of rocket fuel mainly in our atmosphere. This sort of behaviour goes down well with his Californian fan-base, but may not be so well-received by UK and European consumers and governments.

I disagree with your closing comment. Over the last month, Tesla have been looking weaker by the day! If they are to realise their valuation as a super-stock they are really going to have to fly over the next year.

regards

Howard


The issue here is not whether you would or would not buy a Tesla, but how many other potential buyers think like you. I am sure there are many, but by no means everyone.

In my extremely unscientific research I find many folk who are interested and when one Tesla arrives and folk get to have a ride in it they tend to get enthused and want one. People like this may be a tiny fraction of the population I don't know enough folk to be sure although they are by no means special in terms of jobs, wealth, interests etc and I suspect there are enough similar folk to bring some good sales of Tesla motors to many in Europe as the model 3 begins to arrive and the coming models too.

My reading of the situation is that Tesla are now the strongest they have ever been and growing stronger by the day with a fabulous portfolio of vehicles for the 21st century, future proofed against the politicians laws on the environment and with performance, ergonomics and safety that are far ahead of all other vehicle makers.

We shall see.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195719

Postby BobbyD » January 22nd, 2019, 10:01 pm


odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#195739

Postby odysseus2000 » January 22nd, 2019, 11:06 pm

BobbyD wrote:Performance EV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s


Rather boring video, badly shot and dis-jointed.

Sure they made a fast one off car, but the majority of the VW line is still 20th century technology

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#195841

Postby Howard » January 23rd, 2019, 1:00 pm

It is fascinating to watch developments at Tesla. Whilst I have found Elon Musk's recent behaviour most unattractive I am impressed with his ability to keep so many plates spinning on sticks.

The latest issues the company are grappling with are queues at charging stations in the USA and the sometimes lack of etiquette in whose turn is next. There is believable anecdotal evidence that the number of Model 3 cars which hit the roads in the last few months are causing some congestion. It is early days yet, but one source of information on this is #Teslaqueue on Twitter, where Tesla owners are the posters.

Another spinning plate is the relationship with Panasonic. There are signs of strain in this business link. If these prove to be significant what will this mean for Tesla's battery superiority? If the rumoured Panasonic agreement with Toyota goes ahead, will this mean that the Tesla "moat" is threatened? Linking up with a Chinese battery manufacturer may help, but it will involve Tesla sharing their battery expertise with the Chinese. It is already cheaper to fuel a duel fuel Toyota Prius than a similar sized Tesla 3 and the Toyota has a range of 550 miles. If Toyota improve their batteries even more with Panasonic technology will this mean that their cars are a threat? We know that a Toyota car is much more reliable than a Tesla at the moment. Will Tesla be able to improve reliability with the Series 3?

A lot of these issues aren't engineering factors but marketing and strategic partnership issues. Is the board of Tesla going to solve them all in the near future? Whilst it's nice to have a board member who has invested a billion in the company, he may prove rather difficult to manage if his investment shrinks substantially.

I think we all agree that this is a fascinating battle which may develop fast in the next few months. We probably also agree that EV cars are going to be the winners of the war - but who will gain the largest market share and make them profitably?

regards

Howard

See https://seekingalpha.com/article/423481 ... -dust#alt1 for more information about the Panasonic issue.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195855

Postby odysseus2000 » January 23rd, 2019, 1:54 pm

Larry Ellison is worth over $50b, so his Tesla stake is about 2% of his wealth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Ellison

Yes, there is more demand for superchargers as the model 3 sells, which is why I believe solar roofs and storage are set to grow strongly.

The whole Tesla battery situation is very unclear. Some argue that the gigafactory is all Panasonic, dressed as Tesla for tax reasons, others that Tesla has significantly increased its involvement and will use this knowledge in China, others that Tesla won't make batteries in China, but simply buy in. I have no idea.

The big currently hidden Gorilla is will governments begin to increases taxes on hydrocarbons. If this happens everything tilts towards battery propulsion.

Everything comes down to will Tesla cars keep selling and in the short term how will the Model 3 do in Europe now that it has passed the validation procedure.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195864

Postby BobbyD » January 23rd, 2019, 2:39 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Performance EV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s


Rather boring video, badly shot and dis-jointed.

Sure they made a fast one off car, but the majority of the VW line is still 20th century technology

Regards,


It's interesting that you see an EV destroying the record for any car in a 102 year old hill climb in terms of VW's range rather EV's potential.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195868

Postby odysseus2000 » January 23rd, 2019, 3:02 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Performance EV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s


Rather boring video, badly shot and dis-jointed.

Sure they made a fast one off car, but the majority of the VW line is still 20th century technology

Regards,


It's interesting that you see an EV destroying the record for any car in a 102 year old hill climb in terms of VW's range rather EV's potential.


Yes, because as an Investor I am looking for sales, margin and turnover and although record breaking hill climbs do demonstrate the potential of electric traction, that potential has to be seen in any investments range of products and I don't see it in VW at the moment.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195943

Postby odysseus2000 » January 23rd, 2019, 8:35 pm

Tesla's share price is weak, if I didn't know from the chart I could consult Seeking Alpha and count all the bear articles.

Generally when there are as many bear articles as we currently see on Seeking Alpha, it is a good tell that the shorts have pressed all they can and that the price is likely to lift.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195947

Postby odysseus2000 » January 23rd, 2019, 8:48 pm

The ending of sales of Gasoline and diesel engined cars, currently begin in 11 years, Germany takes a little longer:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/23/sw ... gs-behind/

Hat tip to Musk on Twitter for link.

Whether this ban is all ic engines or just new ones isn't clear. If its all ic engined cars one bought now will have scrap value only in 11 years and decreasing every day.

Imho it will be hard and financially foolish to buy an ic car within 5 years.

This imho is a huge tail wind for battery vehicles that will strengthen to gale force.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195948

Postby BobbyD » January 23rd, 2019, 8:48 pm

Tesla Reduces Model S and Model X Production; Shares Drop

Tesla Inc. is reducing production of Model S sedans and Model X crossovers, adding to concerns about demand for the electric-car maker’s higher-priced and more profitable vehicles. The shares dropped on the news.

Tesla has set substantially lower daily production targets for the Model S and Model X, according to current and dismissed employees who asked not to be identified discussing plans that aren’t public.

A Tesla spokeswoman issued a statement confirming that the company had reduced production hours for the Model S and Model X.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hares-drop

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Re: Musk endeavours

#195993

Postby Howard » January 24th, 2019, 12:36 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The ending of sales of Gasoline and diesel engined cars, currently begin in 11 years, Germany takes a little longer:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/23/sw ... gs-behind/

Hat tip to Musk on Twitter for link.

Whether this ban is all ic engines or just new ones isn't clear. If its all ic engined cars one bought now will have scrap value only in 11 years and decreasing every day.

Imho it will be hard and financially foolish to buy an ic car within 5 years.

This imho is a huge tail wind for battery vehicles that will strengthen to gale force.

Regards,


Ody - this is just a journalist's story - you would call it "clickbait" if it didn't agree with your views!

Perhaps someone with a little more credibility, the Head of the IEA may have a more valid view:

Electric car use may be growing exponentially, but they are doing little to curb rising carbon emissions and oil demand, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
“To say that electric cars are the end of oil is definitely misleading,” economist Fatih Birol told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“This year we expect global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day. The effect of 5 million cars is [to diminish that demand by] 50,000 barrels per day. 50,000 versus 1.3m barrels.”
Last year, the IEA predicted that the number of electric cars globally would grow from 3 million today, to 125 million by 2030. But Birol said the number paled in comparison to the 1 billion cars powered by internal combustion engines.
Besides, he said, it was not cars that were driving oil demand – “full stop”.
“Drivers are trucks, the petrochemical industry, planes. Asia is just starting to fly,” he said, referring to the agency’s 2018 energy outlook report that also cites shipping as a major source of oil demand.
Birol also highlighted the problem of powering electric cars when two thirds of global generation comes from fossil fuels.
“Where does the electricity come from, to say that electric cars are a solution to our climate change problem? It is not,” Birol said.
“Even if there were 300 million [electric cars] with the current power generation system, the impact in terms of CO2 emissions is less than 1% – nothing. If you can’t decarbonise [the power sector], C02 emissions will not be going down. It may be helpful for the local pollution, but for global emissions it is not.”

see: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/ ... ncy-chief/

Are Tesla being overtaken by events? If you are really seriously suggesting they need legislation to help them, then they should be concentrating on Trucks and Planes. These are more likely to be affected by Government controls over the next 20 years.

regards

Howard


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