Howard wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:The ending of sales of Gasoline and diesel engined cars, currently begin in 11 years, Germany takes a little longer:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/23/sw ... gs-behind/
Hat tip to Musk on Twitter for link.
Whether this ban is all ic engines or just new ones isn't clear. If its all ic engined cars one bought now will have scrap value only in 11 years and decreasing every day.
Imho it will be hard and financially foolish to buy an ic car within 5 years.
This imho is a huge tail wind for battery vehicles that will strengthen to gale force.
Ody - this is just a journalist's story - you would call it "clickbait" if it didn't agree with your views!
Perhaps someone with a little more credibility, the Head of the IEA may have a more valid view:
Electric car use may be growing exponentially, but they are doing little to curb rising carbon emissions and oil demand, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
“To say that electric cars are the end of oil is definitely misleading,” economist Fatih Birol told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“This year we expect global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day. The effect of 5 million cars is [to diminish that demand by] 50,000 barrels per day. 50,000 versus 1.3m barrels.”
Last year, the IEA predicted that the number of electric cars globally would grow from 3 million today, to 125 million by 2030. But Birol said the number paled in comparison to the 1 billion cars powered by internal combustion engines.
Besides, he said, it was not cars that were driving oil demand – “full stop”.
“Drivers are trucks, the petrochemical industry, planes. Asia is just starting to fly,” he said, referring to the agency’s 2018 energy outlook report that also cites shipping as a major source of oil demand.
Birol also highlighted the problem of powering electric cars when two thirds of global generation comes from fossil fuels.
“Where does the electricity come from, to say that electric cars are a solution to our climate change problem? It is not,” Birol said.
“Even if there were 300 million [electric cars] with the current power generation system, the impact in terms of CO2 emissions is less than 1% – nothing. If you can’t decarbonise [the power sector], C02 emissions will not be going down. It may be helpful for the local pollution, but for global emissions it is not.”
see: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/ ... ncy-chief/
Are Tesla being overtaken by events? If you are really seriously suggesting they need legislation to help them, then they should be concentrating on Trucks and Planes. These are more likely to be affected by Government controls over the next 20 years.
The IEA are just lobbying for the hydrocarbon industry, an industry which has so far been encouraged to produce as much carbon dioxide gas as possible with no penalties or sanctions on what is now seen to be damage to the atmosphere.
Sure if one takes the IEA figure as presented the case for electric traction is small, but if you remove a lot of the hydrocarbon vehicles as is now mandated in many countries, UK by 2040, and you build out the infrastructure to use renewable power then everything changes.
Clearly no exisiting industry is going to change if it doesn't have to which is why I expect a raft of new co2 taxes and bans on ic engines from most cities. If that happens it will revolutionise the energy/emission situation.
If you go back to the time of the clean air act there was intense criticism of that, with lobbying of how we needed coal, of how natural gas could never be introduced to replace it etc. But it happened and we nowadays have very few fogs whereas in the 1950's fogs were very common and murderous.
As things now are the replacement cycle for cars is something like 12 years, one can argue about the exact number, but if there is co2 tax legislation etc as I expect it seems likely to me that with about 5 years no one will buy a new hydrocarbon car or truck and the move towards renewable power which is currently about 30% of UK generation will continue to grow with also a huge increase in storage.
I expect that current industry will fight this tooth and claw with intense lobbying and many many articles like the IEA one, but I expect them to lose.
If I am anything like right then investors who hold equity in companies that will provide this new energy/storage environment will do very well.
If battery technology does improve as some lab studies suggest it can, then it becomes feasible to build electric aircraft too, with Boeing and Airbus both having programs to develop this.
The world is changing and the opportunities for business that make this change happen is large.