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Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 17th, 2019, 6:28 pm
by BobbyD
BobbyD wrote:That about doubles their life expectancy on a constant burn doesn't it? They migt even see in 2021!


Apparently not.

Musk in an email to employees, seen by Reuters, said its net proceeds from the offering gave Tesla only 10 months to achieve breakeven at the rate it was burning cash in the first quarter.

“That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the word, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must (be) reviewed,” Musk said.


- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1SM2SS

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 17th, 2019, 7:40 pm
by Howard
Howard wrote:We are nearly half way through Q2 and indications are that Tesla sales are not encouraging. Will sales volumes be be any higher than Q1?

The “Invasion of Europe” has slowed dramatically especially in Norway. Maybe the Model 3 will achieve some sales in the UK? But its selling price isn’t very competitive and its Autonomous driving mode seems pretty useless on UK roads if the videos posted earlier are a good indication.

Tesla are being very quiet about their sales levels in Asia, so these aren’t likely to be that high and the political situation isn’t very helpful now.

It is possible that non - US sales may pick up a little as some ships are on their way to deliver more units for export, but to have an effect on Q2 results they will need to leave soon.

The lease programme in the USA may help sales a little, but commentators don’t seem to think that it is competitive enough to make a big impact.

At the moment it looks as though they may achieve 60-65,000 sales of all models in the quarter. And the share of higher margin S and X models has dropped further.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there is further talk about a shortage of cash despite the recent fund-raise. The company is having to cut back on capital expenditure, for example they have deferred the Semi truck project until next year at the earliest.

Unbelievably in their Q1 results update published a week or so ago, Tesla actually say “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”. Does anybody believe this stuff any more?

If sales really do drop way below Elon Musk’s forecasts , suppliers are going to get nervous. And production levels must be reduced or inventory will swallow up all the available cash.

Quite an interesting management problem!


I see that Elon Musk agrees with me.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/426 ... ?dr=1#alt2

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 17th, 2019, 8:54 pm
by BobbyD
Howard wrote:I see that Elon Musk agrees with me.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/426 ... ?dr=1#alt2

regards

Howard



From your article:

Norway Q2 to date...

2019 Q2 Norway BEV

May 16

1 VW eGolf 1458

2 Tesla Model 3 1088


The shopping trolley lives!!!

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 17th, 2019, 10:20 pm
by odysseus2000
The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.

So let me postulate an explanation.

As soon as model 3 became available in a particular market, the punters who really lusted after one, bought one and before long that exhausted the "I must have" brigade. With these buyers sated, demand fell as often happens with a new model as more cautious folk wait to see what kind of reviews it gets etc.

If the reviews and feedback were terrible one would expect sales to be small, but if the reviews were good one would expect some of the folk wanting an electric car to decide to try a Tesla. So that during the next months demand stabilises and as folk look at the competition, read reviews and such we get a much better picture of what demand will be like going forward.

Looking at things in this perspective the selling of 1458 eGolf by a big and well known maker against 1088 model 3s does not look to me like folk are deciding en-mass to buy VW, perhaps because there are no VW to buy due to battery shortages or because the model 3 is seen to be a very good car.

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 17th, 2019, 11:48 pm
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.

So let me postulate an explanation.

As soon as model 3 became available in a particular market, the punters who really lusted after one, bought one and before long that exhausted the "I must have" brigade. With these buyers sated, demand fell as often happens with a new model as more cautious folk wait to see what kind of reviews it gets etc.

If the reviews and feedback were terrible one would expect sales to be small, but if the reviews were good one would expect some of the folk wanting an electric car to decide to try a Tesla. So that during the next months demand stabilises and as folk look at the competition, read reviews and such we get a much better picture of what demand will be like going forward.

Looking at things in this perspective the selling of 1458 eGolf by a big and well known maker against 1088 model 3s does not look to me like folk are deciding en-mass to buy VW, perhaps because there are no VW to buy due to battery shortages or because the model 3 is seen to be a very good car.

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,


Ody this is the e-Golf. a 180 mile range £33,000 compliance conversion of an ICE car. I love that people are loving it but the launch edition of the ID3 will set you back a whole £2k extra if you are prepared to wait a little... Personally I'd wait.

Besides I thought the VW brand was toxic, that punters were just waiting for the opportunity to throw them over for a virtue signalling Tesla badge, that anything with a range under 300 miles was a shopping trolley, and that the model 3 had no competitor?

If any of the arguments put forwards in favour of the model 3 here were true the e-golf shouldn't be within spiting distance of the model 3, as it is it is handsomely outselling it in Europe's most electrified market, and you can already place orders for it's successor which to my mind is a far better proposition being that it is cheaper, has a longer range and being designed as an electric car makes better use of the car's volume.

As to the Tesla shorts, having just missed closing the week out with Tesla below $210 I'm sure they are off somewhere drowning their sorrows...

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 12:30 am
by Howard
odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.
..................

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,


Ody

The problem is surely that whilst Tesla model 3 sales aren't collapsing, they are reducing in all markets at the moment. Peak sales are behind them and the future is not looking very rosy. And they are making a loss.

Manufacturers of ICE cars are selling much larger volumes and making profits. Yes, most of us would like EV manufacturers to succeed but it's difficult to support a company built on hype and broken promises. Other EV manufacturers are looking more trustworthy as they are not over-claiming but gradually developing and building competitive products.

Investors may be patient, but companies that sell products at a loss aren't very popular if they can't grow sales. Tesla is currently rated as a growth stock. If it is going to plod along with "sales that aren't collapsing" the market will re-rate the shares and it will find it more and more difficult to raise funds. There is now quite a bit of evidence that they won't be able to fund many of the projects they have hyped. Even the model Y development may be under threat if they are running short of cash.

And it may be that their recent over-selling of the capabilities of Autonomous drive will backfire as it attracts publicity for every sad fatal accident where the Autonomous mode could be blamed. Why can't Tesla supporters accept that Autonomous is just a glorified cruise control at the moment which requires drivers to pay attention to the road ahead at all times?

Surely even you, as one of their ardent supporters must sometimes wish that Tesla just concentrated on improving the quality of the model 3 so that it justified its high price?

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 1:41 am
by BobbyD
Tesla driver gets license suspended after drunkenly falling asleep on Autopilot

A Tesla driver got a suspended license after he drunkenly fell asleep on Autopilot on the highway in the Netherlands. The police managed to safely wake him up while Autopilot was driving the vehicle unsupervised.
Last night, the police in Eemnes, a municipality and a city in the Netherlands, saw that a Tesla vehicle was strangely driving behind a slower truck even though there was no other traffic on the highway.

They decided to approach the vehicle and saw that the driver was asleep.

After attempting to stop the vehicle, the driver was finally woken up with the help of a siren.


- https://electrek.co/2019/05/17/tesla-dr ... autopilot/

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 5:28 am
by odysseus2000
Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.
..................

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,


Ody

The problem is surely that whilst Tesla model 3 sales aren't collapsing, they are reducing in all markets at the moment. Peak sales are behind them and the future is not looking very rosy. And they are making a loss.

Manufacturers of ICE cars are selling much larger volumes and making profits. Yes, most of us would like EV manufacturers to succeed but it's difficult to support a company built on hype and broken promises. Other EV manufacturers are looking more trustworthy as they are not over-claiming but gradually developing and building competitive products.

Investors may be patient, but companies that sell products at a loss aren't very popular if they can't grow sales. Tesla is currently rated as a growth stock. If it is going to plod along with "sales that aren't collapsing" the market will re-rate the shares and it will find it more and more difficult to raise funds. There is now quite a bit of evidence that they won't be able to fund many of the projects they have hyped. Even the model Y development may be under threat if they are running short of cash.

And it may be that their recent over-selling of the capabilities of Autonomous drive will backfire as it attracts publicity for every sad fatal accident where the Autonomous mode could be blamed. Why can't Tesla supporters accept that Autonomous is just a glorified cruise control at the moment which requires drivers to pay attention to the road ahead at all times?

Surely even you, as one of their ardent supporters must sometimes wish that Tesla just concentrated on improving the quality of the model 3 so that it justified its high price?

regards

Howard


Hi Howard,

I am.not convinced that Tesla car sales have peaked. The initial sales were much better than most other makers have done with the standard trajectory being a slow number of sales not reaching a peak for several months.

The technical capabilities & performance of Tesla cars still exceeds other entrants by large factors & German legacy has terrible problems of reliability beyond the leasing time. Purchasers of ex-lease VW, Mercedes, BMW will all have been bitten & not want to buy these brands again plus for VW, diesel gate has caused many to loathe VW. Adding to all of this is the inability of German auto to source batteries.

Chinese & Korean makers are something unknown while the Japanese are focused on hybrids, Renault Nissan offering a poor technically spec Leaf. All the technical analysis of Chinese cars has shown them to be technically inferior in numerous ways to Tesla & would imho be much more of a problem for legacy auto.

Tesla do seem to have created trouble for themselves with claims over auto pilot, especially the arguments that their cars will soon be a fleet of robo taxis. Nothing I have yet seen gives me confidence that Tesla cars are good enough for robotic driving yet & it's not clear that their approach can work, but if anyone is to crack self driving in the short term it is Tesla. Whether the situation is like when chess computers were laughably bad & then suddenly big expensive machines became world champions followed in recent years with much lower cost machines that could simultaneously beat many chess masters & similar for poker & Go remains unknowable. There is currently a lot of focus on each auto pilot death & no focus on the 10 deaths & serious injuries every day on UK roads & very many more worldwide. Any tech that begins to bring down the terrible loss of life & serious injury from road traffic accidents has to be welcomed.

Looking at Tesla we should also not forget storage which imho will likely grow very quickly, faster than electric traction, assuming they can get with Panasonic & make the cells fast enough.

If Tesla auto is to be any good we will need to see sales begin to pickup in all markets & not peak for several months along with continued development of the y & the pickup.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 8:16 am
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:I am.not convinced that Tesla car sales have peaked. The initial sales were much better than most other makers have done with the standard trajectory being a slow number of sales not reaching a peak for several months.


They've got 10 months cash left... at what point do concerns about spares and warranties kick in?

They've also had a massive sale, and then announced they were going to put up AP prices dramatically already this year, and their US subsidy is about to get halved again. If anything this should be pulling sales forwards to Q1 and Q2, that is to say stealing them from Q's 3&4.

For a company valued on growth, and running out of money with a price chart which looks like the decent of Everest they need more than a small sales bump. Are they even on track to make half of Musk's predicted deliveries for the year?

odysseus2000 wrote:The technical capabilities & performance of Tesla cars still exceeds other entrants by large factors & German legacy has terrible problems of reliability...


...and still no built in swimming pool in the boot!

Other manufacturers fix most of a car's design faults before releasing it to customers, Tesla use their customers as guinea pigs, and their reliability and service reputation is absolutely atrocious.

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla do seem to have created trouble for themselves with claims over auto pilot, especially the arguments that their cars will soon be a fleet of robo taxis.


Convenient that the story changed from Tesla were going to show legacy auto how to build cars efficiently, and the profits would come with scale, changed to Robo-taxis are the future and Teslas are going to be so good that they will appreciate in value just as it was becoming obvious to almost all that Tesla can't profitably produce a mass market ev, and even if they could demand is questionable... somewhat unfortunate it was the week before Uber which has the same business plan had an IPO which was described as a train wreck, but not as bad as Lyft's...

odysseus2000 wrote:Looking at Tesla we should also not forget storage which imho will likely grow very quickly, faster than electric traction, assuming they can get with Panasonic & make the cells fast enough.


Storage is going to be massively more competitive than cars. It's so much simpler, and there are lots of companies looking to replace fossil stream income but with significant amounts of cash to spend getting involved.

Still on the brightside, this must be a massive buying opportunity for you.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 11:26 am
by redsturgeon
The lowest priced Tesla model 3 in the UK is priced at £38,900! Where is the £35,000 Tesla that was promised?

As presumably one of the prime candidates for a Tesla ( I already owned two hybrids and am looking at a full electric car next year) I am wondering why I cannot consider one seriously.

My reasons (just personal opinions and beliefs)

- Two many stories of poor reliability and build quality

- Worries about after sales service and warranty claims

- Worry that Tesla may not be here in two years time

- Lack of a nationwide dealer network to support me in the event of first two issues

- Feeling that the Tesla is just too big and wide for my local roads

- Worries about the safety aspects of the experimental "autopilot" *

- General lack of faith in the brand

I am still happy with my BMW PHEV when i look at what I need and what it gives for its £32000k original price it provides at least as much as the standard Tesla 3 and more in some areas.

Still looking.

John

*I have a petrol gold with some autopilot type features like active crusie control and front collision avoidance and I find them less useful than standard cruise control and have recently had a specific issue with the frontal collision system. My driveway, like many others is a dropped kerb onto the main road. As such the drive dips and then rises up the camber of the main road. This is not so much that any part of the car grounds and it is not severe enough to cause any problem with any car I have owned (including some with low ground clearance due to low profile tyres and front spoilers. However they have just resurfaced the road and repainted the yellow line across my drive. Now the frontal collision system thinks that I am about to hit something as I exit my drive! So I spot a gap in the traffic and just as I start to pull out, the car performs a helpful emergency stop and asks me to check my surroundings before continuing!! The first time this happened was a shock and the next couple of times it became tedious and it could have been dangerous. I have now had to switch off the system completely. I'm not sure how Tesla's system would react though if it can't spot an 18 wheeler crossing in front of you then maybe it would be OK :D

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 12:40 pm
by dspp
redsturgeon wrote:The lowest priced Tesla model 3 in the UK is priced at £38,900! Where is the £35,000 Tesla that was promised?

As presumably one of the prime candidates for a Tesla ( I already owned two hybrids and am looking at a full electric car next year) I am wondering why I cannot consider one seriously.


- Feeling that the Tesla is just too big and wide for my local roads



I don't think Tesla ever promised a 3 at £35k. At $35k perhaps, but not £35k. And they delivered on that promise by the way.

Regarding dimensions:

TESLA 3
Length 4,690 mm
Width
1,930 mm (ex. mirrors)
2,090 mm (inc. mirrors)
Height 1,440 mm)

BMW 3
4,633-4,709 mm L
1,811-1,827 mm W (without mirrors ..... )
1,435-1,467 mm H

There really is very little difference in it. The Tesla is a few cm shorter and a few cm wider, but scarcely noticeable. I noticed a size comparison of the two the other day, and I've dug it out again:

Image

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... on.152422/



regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 1:21 pm
by redsturgeon
Thanks DSPP.

I know the 3 series BMW is a surprisingly long car which is why I wouldn't consider one. It is the width which is more a problem though, but as you say it is quite close.

As for £35k , yes I know they promised $35k but I automatically translated that from $s to the same number of £s since that seems to be the normal case ie. Apple products.

Did they really provide a $35k Tesla?

John

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 1:51 pm
by dspp
redsturgeon wrote:Thanks DSPP.

I know the 3 series BMW is a surprisingly long car which is why I wouldn't consider one. It is the width which is more a problem though, but as you say it is quite close.

As for £35k , yes I know they promised $35k but I automatically translated that from $s to the same number of £s since that seems to be the normal case ie. Apple products.

Did they really provide a $35k Tesla?

John


Re $35k : They did, see eg https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-35k-mod ... r-options/ . Whether it is still available in the US is unclear if only because they seem to have done a $400 or so price hike across the board recently. You really had to go out of your way to buy it, but they did it and delivered on their promise.

Re dimensions I think you would be surprised to compare WIDTH with the latest VW Golf (https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/com ... nsions.pdf and https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/com ... nsions.pdf ) . I have found the BMW dims with mirrors as well :

VW GOLF
L = 4,562 mm (estate)
L = 4,258 mm(hatchback version)
W = 2,027 mm (inc mirrors)
H = 1,492 mm

TESLA 3
L= 4,690 mm
W= 2,090 mm (inc. mirrors)
H= 1,440 mm)

BMW 3
L = 4,709 mm
W = 2,068 mm (inc mirrors)
H = 1,467 mm

Someone I know used to say "beware statements of insincere objections", i.e. don't chase customers who have decided not to buy for whatever reason, but don't want to say what is their real reason for going elsewhere.

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 4:10 pm
by Howard
redsturgeon wrote:Thanks DSPP.

I know the 3 series BMW is a surprisingly long car which is why I wouldn't consider one. It is the width which is more a problem though, but as you say it is quite close.

As for £35k , yes I know they promised $35k but I automatically translated that from $s to the same number of £s since that seems to be the normal case ie. Apple products.

Did they really provide a $35k Tesla?

John


As you rightly imply it's so difficult to be positive about Tesla.

Yes, they did promise a $35k Model 3, but instead of delivering on their promise in a straightforward way, they weaseled out and made it virtually impossible to order. So Tesla acted a bit like the Ryanair of car manufacturers!

Is this the optimum marketing strategy for an organisation which claims to be supplying a premium product?

The basic price UK model is black only I believe, so the on the road price for another colour will be higher.

You might also consider how much it will cost to insure a Tesla in the UK. US insurers are rapidly revising their initial quotes upwards. The article below is interesting in that the author does a sample of quotes. He finds a model 3 is similar or more expensive to insure than a BMW M3 or Mercedes AMG. It’s a fascinating insight into the thinking of a Tesla fan. To most of us a BMW M3 or Merc AMG are pretty “insane” vehicles for everyday use and yet to a Tesla enthusiast these are the comparators.

I’m guessing, if UK insurers take the same view many Model 3 owners won’t get much change out of £1,000 a year for insurance? I imagine you are paying a little less than that for your Golf and BMWi3?

And, when told that Tesla were going to launch their own insurance, Warren Buffett’s comment was amusing. He quipped that there was more chance of an Insurance company making a successful electric car than Tesla succeeding at making money at insurance.

regards

Howard

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/426 ... ?dr=1#alt2

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 4:58 pm
by dspp
mmmm ....... things are not going so well in the dino-juice land of legacy ICE burning platforms,

BMW .. battles to reverse falling margins.

BMW is struggling alongside many other carmakers with a downturn in demand and record spending after years of growth. After a profit warning last year, the world's second-biggest luxury carmaker after Mercedes-Benz had a tough start to the year, reducing momentum from an unprecedented model offensive to a whimper. ...The automaker reported its first loss in a decade in the main automotive division


https://www.autonews.com/executives/bmw ... oss-decade

And this graphic gives a pretty good insight into the real position of the various manufacturers of EVs:

Image

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery ... ev-makers/

And not sure if this URL goes to the correct post (ReflexFunds, Today at 6:39 AM Last edited: Today at 7:09 AM) but I thought it was a fair assessment of Tesla's financial position, with some real sums done.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3669192

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 6:15 pm
by odysseus2000
Interesting view of auto pilot operating in heavy rain:

https://youtu.be/wb7S3JEAUho

Everyone will have their own view on this, but as a window into what the software can currently do, It is instructive.

It is also nice that auto pilot can be quickly engaged & disengaged.

Should a Tesla have the drive way troubles mentioned earlier in this thread, it looks a simple job to temporarily over ride & then re-engage.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 8:17 pm
by BobbyD
dspp wrote:mmmm ....... things are not going so well in the dino-juice land of legacy ICE burning platforms,

BMW .. battles to reverse falling margins.

BMW is struggling alongside many other carmakers with a downturn in demand and record spending after years of growth. After a profit warning last year, the world's second-biggest luxury carmaker after Mercedes-Benz had a tough start to the year, reducing momentum from an unprecedented model offensive to a whimper. ...The automaker reported its first loss in a decade in the main automotive division


https://www.autonews.com/executives/bmw ... oss-decade


Are you sure that citing a company warning it expects lower profits is the best way to defend a company which makes only losses?

dspp wrote:And this graphic gives a pretty good insight into the real position of the various manufacturers of EVs:

Image


If you were only allowed one piece of information to compare the real position of EV makers how far down the list would battery capacity deployed in March 2019 be?

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 8:34 pm
by Howard
dspp wrote:mmmm ....... things are not going so well in the dino-juice land of legacy ICE burning platforms,

BMW .. battles to reverse falling margins.

BMW is struggling alongside many other carmakers with a downturn in demand and record spending after years of growth. After a profit warning last year, the world's second-biggest luxury carmaker after Mercedes-Benz had a tough start to the year, reducing momentum from an unprecedented model offensive to a whimper. ...The automaker reported its first loss in a decade in the main automotive division



regards, dspp


Yes, BMW only sold 2.5 million vehicles last year. They must be cowed and depressed by Tesla's sales of around 250,000.

If only Tesla wasn't giving away money with every car sold.

However, looking on the bright side, when Tesla persuade shareholders to give them a few hundred billion dollars more they could soon be selling as many cars as- BMW. :D

And if Tesla really try hard they may become more profitable than Morgan. :D :D

https://www.morgan-motor.co.uk/record-g ... r-company/

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 10:25 pm
by Archtronics
German car sales has nothing to do with Tesla or electric to my mind.
People are moving to SUVs/4x4 and small cars both areas where the German brands don’t do very well because there SUVs are expensive compared to the French and Asia brands and there small car offerings are also expensive and not that small.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: May 18th, 2019, 10:36 pm
by BobbyD
...speaking of deployed MWh

The U.S. Has a Fleet of 300 Electric Buses. China Has 421,000

...Out of almost 425,000 e-buses worldwide at the end of last year, some 421,000 were in China. The global e-bus fleet grew about 32% in 2018, according to a BloombergNEF report released Wednesday, with the vast majority hitting the road in China. Europe had only 2,250 electric buses, by BNEF’s count.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 000-to-300