Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Wasron,Steffers0,Anonymous,CryptoPlankton,GrahamPlatt, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261373

Postby BobbyD » October 31st, 2019, 8:25 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I see Tesla as riding a major wave of secular change that will transform world energy generation, consumption and storage and also Tesla will be part of the next industrial revolutions in both AI and robotics. Things like paint and other quality issues I consider to be trivial, but you have different views .


There is absolutely nothing secular about your views on Musk or Tesla, or the wave on which Tesla is riding.

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1814
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 227 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261381

Postby odysseus2000 » October 31st, 2019, 9:19 pm

vrdiver wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:I see Tesla as riding a major wave of secular change that will transform world energy generation, consumption and storage and also Tesla will be part of the next industrial revolutions in both AI and robotics.

The railway companies rode a wave of secular change and transformation. It turned out great for civilisation, but a lot of investors lost their money.

I agree with you re the coming changes, but am as yet unconvinced that Tesla will be a survivor. Not saying they won't be, or even that they will be less successful than MSFT or Apple etc., but just pointing out that businesses can and have failed despite being in a leadership position.

The technology is one strength, but they face some serious competition on every front. Deep pockets and a steady stream of success might be in order, not least when it comes to hitting their self-proclaimed targets.

We'll see what the landscape looks like in a year's time as more manufacturer's BEVs start to become available in the market and more cities put ever more stringent emission constraints in place.

VRD


Yes, these are good points. There are huge parallels with the railway age.

In the former it was massive over supply that sank Hudson, the railway king. This is a very good novel showing how more & more money went into the boom & how the kind of heroine although multi faceted sees it all building:

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/325 ... you-always

If you want to know what will possibly happen & the signs to look for this novel imho is worth a read.

Tesla could fail, as could legacy auto as there is imho a tidal wave of change coming & I am far from certain if I can over exaggerate the effects of what might come.

As things now stand Tesla looks well positioned imho to make a shed load of money for investors, legacy auto looks imho set up to lose a shed load of money for its investors.

So far almost all the analysis I have read bifurcates into:

1 Legacy auto is rich & will dominate, new entrants like Tesla are doomed.

2 legacy auto is too complacent & will lose, new entrants like Tesla will win.

For me it is by far the most interesting investment issue of our time with huge real world consequences & imho the change has hardly begun.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1814
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 227 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261383

Postby odysseus2000 » October 31st, 2019, 9:23 pm

For those unclear about what I mean by secular, this might help:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secular.asp

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261409

Postby BobbyD » November 1st, 2019, 3:25 am

The Teslarati are apoplectic after it was confirmed that Top Gear displayed faster figures from a previous test for the Model S rather than the same day, same time, same track numbers used for the Taycan to minimise the margin of the Porsche's victory...

There have been some questions about the performance figures we posted in our recent Porsche Taycan vs Tesla Model S video. Time for some clarification.

First things first, we ran the drag race five times and the Porsche won every time by a small but increasing margin with each subsequent race.

The best figures we recorded for the Taycan Turbo S were:

0-60: 2.61
0-100: 6.12
¼ mile: 10.69s @ 131.6mph

The best figures we recorded for the Tesla Model S Performance were:

0-60: 2.83
0-100: 6.64
¼ mile: 11.23s @ 123.2mph

The numbers we posted in the video for the Tesla were:

0-60: 2.68
0-100: 6.46
¼ mile: 11.08s @ 124.0mph

These were numbers we recorded in a Model S on a previous occasion. We ran them because these are the best figures we’ve achieved in a Model S to date so we know that’s what the car is capable of.

And just to be clear, the Tesla was in Ludicrous+ mode, the battery was pre-conditioned and both cars had around 85 per cent charge before the first run.


- https://www.topgear.com/car-news/porsch ... rification

Some of the BTL's in the usual places are getting very ugly.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261548

Postby BobbyD » November 1st, 2019, 7:39 pm

Tesla and Musk hid facts about SolarCity deal and SpaceX involvement, shareholders claim in unsealed court docs

KEY POINTS

Large shareholders are suing Tesla over their acquisition of SolarCity in late 2016. Unsealed court docs revealed new details about their claims on Monday.

Before the $2.6 billion deal closed, SolarCity allegedly hid critical details about its relationship with SpaceX, from auditors Ernst & Young.

A financial advisor to SolarCity, Lazard, could find no other bidders for the company -- just Tesla -- ahead of the deal, the shareholders claim.


- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/tesla-s ... -docs.html

Tesla shareholders filed a lawsuit against the company in 2016, alleging that CEO Elon Musk pushed the company to buy SolarCity to enrich himself. They said it was a breach of fiduciary duty.

On Thursday, several depositions (including one of Musk) and documents included in the suit were published on the website PlainSite, an organization focused on transparency in the US judicial system. The Think Computer Foundation originally obtained the documents.

Some documents showed that SolarCity was facing a liquidity crisis when Tesla bought it, and that some Tesla board members had a lot to lose personally if the deal didn't go through. The documents also showed that the Tesla solar-roof-tile product, which was unveiled to the public just before the acquisition was approved by the board, didn't work.

An email from Musk included in the lawsuit showed that he pushed to move up the presentation of the solar tile to convince the board to approve the SolarCity acquisition.


- https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mu ... ?r=US&IR=T

FCA in the market for BEV's:

Fiat Chrysler's CEO says the carmaker could buy technology from Tesla


- https://www.businessinsider.com/fca-fia ... ?r=US&IR=T

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261555

Postby BobbyD » November 1st, 2019, 8:05 pm

First steels go up at Nortvolt Ett, what will hopefully become Sweden's 32 GWh battery manufactory.

- https://northvolt.com/construction-begi ... hvolt-ett/

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261665

Postby Howard » November 2nd, 2019, 1:39 pm

Model 3 is now available from stock in the UK. Tesla UK are holding a selection for immediate delivery and there are some hopeful sellers on Autotrader but some cars haven’t shifted for a month or more.

It will be interesting to see the UK sales figures for October which will be out soon. (And, of course, sales in the USA).

The total sales of Model 3s in Norway, Netherlands and Spain in October were 435. (Compared with sales of 8,353 in September). Model S and X October sales in these countries were 35 and 50 respectively.

https://eu-evs.com/

regards

Howard

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#261717

Postby BobbyD » November 2nd, 2019, 5:36 pm

Howard wrote:Model 3 is now available from stock in the UK. Tesla UK are holding a selection for immediate delivery and there are some hopeful sellers on Autotrader but some cars haven’t shifted for a month or more.

It will be interesting to see the UK sales figures for October which will be out soon. (And, of course, sales in the USA).

The total sales of Model 3s in Norway, Netherlands and Spain in October were 435. (Compared with sales of 8,353 in September). Model S and X October sales in these countries were 35 and 50 respectively.

https://eu-evs.com/

regards

Howard


Yowzers!

Just for perspective, and to rule out general market effects, I looked at a few other models NL +NO + SP October sales:

e-tron: 1104 - first month over 800 this year, large increase. They knocked it out o fthe park last October as well

e-golf: 1138 - about par. Can't believe this is still selling with the ID.3 within touching distance...

Leaf: 1067 - about par

i3: 608 - in keeping with recent steady decline

ipace: 207 - actually a slight improvement on Aug & Sep

Model 3: Indeed 435, although they've already pegged 252 in November...

So there was nothing wrong with Norway.


For comparison their other 1st months of the quarter have been:

Jan - 58

April - 1237

July 987

so it's a massive drop, although on trend in that regard.

They could be starving the Norwegian market as they roll out far too fast across Europe, but it isn't how I'd do it. Then again that probably makes it more likely...

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262017

Postby BobbyD » November 4th, 2019, 1:46 pm

A happy id.3 day to all.

Merkel’s visit to the factory in the eastern state of Saxony marks the production start for the VW brand’s first mass-market vehicle based on a technology developed solely for battery-powered cars. Customers have placed deposits for more than 35,000 ID.3 cars. Success for the model, which starts at just under 30,000 euros ($33,500) and will hit showrooms across Europe next summer, is vital for the massive investment to pay off and safeguard jobs.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ique-grows

An interesting graph:

Image

- https://insideevs.com/news/380011/e-tro ... -x-norway/

Not bad for a,"bottom of the performance table Frankenstein car which is going to sink Audi".

Dear John: My wife and I are second-time Tesla owners.

We now own a Model 3, and my wife uses the car exclusively for her work as a notary.

About two weeks ago, she was waiting at a light and got rear-ended by another driver. Her trunk and rear bumper were damaged, and the car was rendered undriveable.

The problem we are facing is that Tesla regularly makes body shops wait at least three to four months before supplying needed parts.

It appears that Tesla is reluctant to use parts directed for the assembly line to satisfy customers’ repair needs.

Ordinarily in this type of an accident, in which one driver is totally at fault, the insurance company pays for a rental that is the equivalent to the damaged car. In this case, the responsible party has insurance coverage that will cover the damage and nothing else.

I found Tesla’s lack of commitment to its customers abhorrent. If it takes four months to get parts, I will be forced to cover virtually all the car rental costs and some repairs. If this was an ordinary car manufacturer, the parts would be available in days, not months.

My certified Tesla body shop is afraid of retribution from the company if it pushes too hard.


- https://nypost.com/2019/11/02/tesla-nee ... customers/

Now you can, possibly, argue that Tesla's repair problems are overstated or not representative blah, blah, blah ...but I'm sure we can all agree that this sort of thing appearing in the NY Post isn't great for Tesla?

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating Tesla over alleged battery defects that have reportedly led to fires in the Model S and Model X.

On Oct. 24, the agency sent a letter informing Tesla that it planned to open a defect petition requesting that "certain battery management system software updates" be evaluated in Model S and Model X vehicles sold between 2012 to 2019 in the United States. It also requested information about those updates, as well as details on consumer complaints, lawsuits, and claims related to the alleged defects.


- https://mashable.com/article/tesla-mode ... urope=true

Again...

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262232

Postby Howard » November 5th, 2019, 10:45 am

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
There is a danger that Tesla investors believe the whole world is against them.

Howard


Howard,

I'm not going to waste my breath going through all that FUD. If you want to drive a dino-juice car then that's your choice. If you want to slag off TSLA then keep on going.

However this is an investment site. If you want to benefit from your superior knowledge on TSLA as an investment opportunity then either go short or go long. But get off the keyboard and put some $$$ in this game if you are sure you know what you are talking about. If you don't do so then it indicates to me that you are not so sure as you profess to be.

Meanwhile TSLA is growing at an average of 33% per year.

regards, dspp


Tesla sales in the UK in October dropped to 587. As Tesla UK has scores of new S and X and a more modest selection of new Model 3s available from stock is this an indicator that demand is dropping significantly in the UK, at least in the short term?

With around 13 Tesla showrooms in Britain, this means an average of around 11 cars sold per week in October. Is this a sustainable performance for a sales outlet?

A typical Mercedes or BMW franchise dealer would expect to sell more than 25 cars a week. In September dealers of these two brands sold around 50 a week. And both German brands each sold around 12,000 cars in October suggesting their dealers had a pretty good month.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

https://www.am-online.com/data/new-car-sales-figures

Tesla do not reveal their monthly sales figures in the USA, but their US sales turnover in Q3 was down, suggesting car sales volume was not increasing. Their introduction of a leasing scheme for the Model 3 could, of course, explain some of the steep drop in US sales turnover. We won’t have a clear idea of US volumes for some time.

Tesla sales in Norway, Netherlands and Spain dropped dramatically in October (see my post above).

So all eyes are on sales in China. Will this make up the recent shortfall in sales in Europe? We are unlikely to get definite pointers as to how many cars Tesla will sell in 2019 until January next year.

dspp your forecast that Tesla is growing at 33% per year looks pretty brave to me. But we'll see what their long-term performance is.

Some will call the above sales figures FUD, some of us will call them FACTS. :D

regards

Howard

dspp
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4102
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 3252 times
Been thanked: 989 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262260

Postby dspp » November 5th, 2019, 11:49 am

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
There is a danger that Tesla investors believe the whole world is against them.

Howard


Howard,

I'm not going to waste my breath going through all that FUD. If you want to drive a dino-juice car then that's your choice. If you want to slag off TSLA then keep on going.

However this is an investment site. If you want to benefit from your superior knowledge on TSLA as an investment opportunity then either go short or go long. But get off the keyboard and put some $$$ in this game if you are sure you know what you are talking about. If you don't do so then it indicates to me that you are not so sure as you profess to be.

Meanwhile TSLA is growing at an average of 33% per year.

regards, dspp


Tesla sales in the UK in October dropped to 587. As Tesla UK has scores of new S and X and a more modest selection of new Model 3s available from stock is this an indicator that demand is dropping significantly in the UK, at least in the short term?

With around 13 Tesla showrooms in Britain, this means an average of around 11 cars sold per week in October. Is this a sustainable performance for a sales outlet?

A typical Mercedes or BMW franchise dealer would expect to sell more than 25 cars a week. In September dealers of these two brands sold around 50 a week. And both German brands each sold around 12,000 cars in October suggesting their dealers had a pretty good month.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

https://www.am-online.com/data/new-car-sales-figures

Tesla do not reveal their monthly sales figures in the USA, but their US sales turnover in Q3 was down, suggesting car sales volume was not increasing. Their introduction of a leasing scheme for the Model 3 could, of course, explain some of the steep drop in US sales turnover. We won’t have a clear idea of US volumes for some time.

Tesla sales in Norway, Netherlands and Spain dropped dramatically in October (see my post above).

So all eyes are on sales in China. Will this make up the recent shortfall in sales in Europe? We are unlikely to get definite pointers as to how many cars Tesla will sell in 2019 until January next year.

dspp your forecast that Tesla is growing at 33% per year looks pretty brave to me. But we'll see what their long-term performance is.

Some will call the above sales figures FUD, some of us will call them FACTS. :D

regards

Howard


Those are interesting FACTS and get a lot more respect from me than FUD.

If a Mercedes or BMW franchise dealer is doing 25 cars/week then they are doing 300 cars/quarter. Now assuming that is a per location number it can be compared with the corresponding Tesla global average number that is averaging 225. Interesting.

My 33% forecast was not a forecast. It was an observation that the historical average annual growth rate over the past few years was 33%, and that the capacity expansion numbers being built out are consistent with that continuing. Whether it will continue or not I do not know, all I was pointing out was what the historical facts were, and whether the available data indicated it could continue. And what that implied in valuation terms (PE and PEG). See viewtopic.php?p=260299#p260299 for details.

It is an interesting situation. One into which we now see national-politicians throwing money & time to try and save their incumbent legacy manufacturers.

I hold.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1814
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 227 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262349

Postby odysseus2000 » November 5th, 2019, 4:51 pm

NIO up nearly 30% following:

https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-releases

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262461

Postby BobbyD » November 5th, 2019, 11:17 pm

Bristol council votes to ban diesel cars in first for a UK city

Scheme to begin in 2021 in attempt to tackle illegal levels of air pollution


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... iesel-cars

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262474

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 12:33 am

Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1814
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 227 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262518

Postby odysseus2000 » November 6th, 2019, 9:55 am

Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


Great article.

I have for a long time thought the German car industry was in very serious trouble & that they would fail to react in time & get murdered by newer entrants.

All my research looking at disruptive change over the centuries came to very similar conclussions to this article: Powerful incumbents nearly always become the futures study of failures.

Although many have become fans of German auto we should not forget that there are also huge troubles in Japan, Italy, Russia & France as well as the German subsidiaries such as Skoda being caused by this disruptive technology. To these auto makers we can also add the entire oil & natural gas industries that are both seeing political pressure re co2 emission & competing energy from renewable sources.

Imho Europe is set up for very serious economic decline & I am now seeing this reality enter into politicians minds & panic is likely to lead to the politicians getting involved. If they are anything like as competent as were the UK's with our once powerful auto industry the rate of decline of European auto will accelerate.

It remains a great tragedy to me that the UK, where the first industrial revolution began, no longer has the capability to compete in these rapidly expanding fields. The weakness in Sterling that began a long time before Brexit would have been a great boon for manufacturing, although the same troubles of incumbents failing to make the appropriate decisions when faced with secular change would likely have been a problem here too.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262522

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 10:18 am

Is Tesla changing its approach to selling cars? Obviously China is a key market and it will want to make sure that its approach is successful and so will try out some new (or old?) ideas.

A Reuters article suggests that Tesla have realised that they must have many more sales centres in China to distribute their cars.

Some interesting quotes. Suggesting that Tesla are investing in Sales Promotion techniques rather similar to legacy auto. And realising that pre and after-sales service is important.

“Tesla had already treated China, the world’s biggest electric vehicle market, differently than elsewhere. The company and Musk openly disdain marketing, but in China Tesla has offered racing events and showroom parties.”

Has this senior Tesla official been reading some of our sceptical posts?

“ “Building cars from the Shanghai factory is just the first step,” Tesla vice president Tao Lin said at an industry conference last month in Beijing. “Next we must deliver cars very well to our customers and provide very good after-sales service.”

I’m not being critical of the company. They appear to be realising that an internet selling approach is not enough and are beginning to move in the direction of offering more tangible customer service. This may be a good sign. However it is going to cost the company money. This doesn’t sound like a cheap initiative.

regards

Howard

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... sinessNews

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262532

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 10:46 am

Howard wrote:I’m not being critical of the company. They appear to be realising that an internet selling approach is not enough and are beginning to move in the direction of offering more tangible customer service. This may be a good sign. However it is going to cost the company money. This doesn’t sound like a cheap initiative.


You'd have thought the idea that people coughing up $40,000 - $100,000 for an item might like it to arrive in decent condition and be fixed in less than a month if it breaks, once they'd burnt through the fanbois who took putting up with dinged up paintwork and 3 months waits for parts to be a sign of dedication to the cause, might have cropped up at some point in the last decade... I'm not sure how that can't be a criticism of the company.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 5179
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 248 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262540

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 11:46 am

Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


I can understand why spiegel introduces this as being about the german sector as a whole, given their audience, but what they actually talk about is mostly Daimler, and BMW.

I'm hardly going to argue that Waymo isn't a world leader in AD, I've been making this point consistently for some little time, although it might have been worth mentioning that the company with a Level 3 AD for sale which you aren't allowed to use because the law still requires the driver to pay attention at all times is ...Audi...

The amount of room given to the fact that Tesla use robots is ...baffling. It's not like nobody else uses them, or uses them better. Musk's aim may have been to build the machine which builds the machine and show legacy auto how mass manufacture was done, but that was before he discovered he didn't know how it was done and decided that Tesla's future dominance would be based on robot taxis, or the number of 80's arcade games you could play or whatever it currently is. The only thing we learnt from that is that Tesla's big break through is always just around the corner, no no, the next corner... it's almost as if the man is talking his stock price up. If you want to see a well automated factory check out the Taycan production line: https://youtu.be/A_cV4D2EX80

The first two figures are of questionable use. Yes, alphabet has a very high market cap. We knew that. It makes buying a chunk quite difficult we knew that too. The prospective value of Waymo whilst incalculable would actually be meaningful. BEV output 2018 ...let's just say it's about to change quite dramtically, we know it is, it even said so in the first paragraph of this story... Zwichau + Chattanooga + Embden + Hanover + Anting + Foshan is going to make the high score on that list look tiny. I'm fairly sure we all knew that cars make up a lot of Germany's exports too, so that's fig.3 wasted...

The power of 150 PC's? please... Tesla no more came up with the idea of smart summon than they came up with the idea of wheels, it's been used in discussions of AD and promotional material for years, and sentry mode has been a staple of sci of for decades. These are not ideas Tesla 'came up with'.

The coverage of Tesla is hyperbolic fanfic.

...ok, first page was mainly Daimler, second is heading down the mainly BMW route... and back to Daimler...

The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.

Even if customers begin buying more electric automobiles in the future, there is no guarantee that they will be German models. A car reviewer from the French daily Le Monde expressed astonishment in May at the purchase prices of 82,600 euros for an Audi e-tron and 78,950 euros for the Mercedes EQC. They are certainly attractive, comfortable cars with a 400-kilometer range and 300-kilowatt output, he wrote, but the steering is "less technically mature" than in comparable Tesla models. More than anything, though, he wrote, the two models are lacking a dose of boldness: "They feel like electrified conventional vehicles and not like a new generation of cars."


He, much like Ody appears to have missed the point of the e-tron. The punters haven't though, see graph in above post.

Electric motors have maybe 100, maximum 200 parts. In electric mobility, the battery is the most valuable part and accounts for around a third of the value added. And the batteries will not be coming from Germany, but from Samsung and LG Chem in South Korea or from CATL in China. The race to establish at least one European battery producer seems to have already been lost.


It's called Northvolt. The author should really like it bearing in mind it was founded by two Tesla alumni, and is 20% owned by VW...

Hardly anyone is doing as much to ward off that fate as VW CEO Diess.


Now we are talking!

...oh no, back to the doom and gloom!

I'm not sure there's anything in that article you won't find somewhere in this thread, the unsubstantiated adulation of Musk for was certainly very familiar as are the questions about the viability of manufacturers who only produce 2.5 million cars a year.

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262544

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 12:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


Great article.

I have for a long time thought the German car industry was in very serious trouble & that they would fail to react in time & get murdered by newer entrants.

All my research looking at disruptive change over the centuries came to very similar conclussions to this article: Powerful incumbents nearly always become the futures study of failures.

Although many have become fans of German auto we should not forget that there are also huge troubles in Japan, Italy, Russia & France as well as the German subsidiaries such as Skoda being caused by this disruptive technology. To these auto makers we can also add the entire oil & natural gas industries that are both seeing political pressure re co2 emission & competing energy from renewable sources.

Imho Europe is set up for very serious economic decline & I am now seeing this reality enter into politicians minds & panic is likely to lead to the politicians getting involved. If they are anything like as competent as were the UK's with our once powerful auto industry the rate of decline of European auto will accelerate.

It remains a great tragedy to me that the UK, where the first industrial revolution began, no longer has the capability to compete in these rapidly expanding fields. The weakness in Sterling that began a long time before Brexit would have been a great boon for manufacturing, although the same troubles of incumbents failing to make the appropriate decisions when faced with secular change would likely have been a problem here too.

Regards,


This is a hard-hitting article outlining the challenges to the German car manufacturing industry and it touches on much of the discussion on this forum.

I think it points to an issue which we have debated here on many occasions. It’s obvious that the car market will look dramatically different in twenty years time. The thousands of smaller companies making components for ICE engines are facing extinction if they don’t change to manufacturing components for cleaner engines (at the moment, probably electric motors). And the move to self-driving vehicles will need huge investments in technology and IT which presents major opportunities to IT companies.

There is a another issue which is more of a behavioural/marketing challenge which faces car manufacturers. And the question here is will the advance in technology take any remaining pleasure out of driving?

It’s likely, over twenty years, that driving in cities will become much more like getting a bus. As a passenger, who cares who made the self-driving vehicle or how satisfying it is to drive or control? So long as it is reasonably tidy, who cares if it is a bit utilitarian? Safety, punctuality and speed of journey are the most important factors. The personal relationship with cars will disappear and the manufacturers who can produce at the lowest price whilst meeting safety standards will get the largest mass-market share.

What will happen to the premium car market? I’ve picked out one quote from the Spiegel article which I think is perceptive.

And there is much to suggest that BMW isn't planning to abandon its hesitant course any time soon, despite its planned introduction of new electric vehicle models. CEO Zipse isn't a fan of taking incalculable risks, neither with the production of electric vehicles nor when it comes to mobility and car-sharing services. BMW's core competency, he says, is "building the best cars in the world." That, he continues, "is the real challenge facing our industry."

A key question for me then is, (making a huge assumption) if our society doesn’t change dramatically over the next twenty years, what kind of car will a consumer who wants a premium brand be purchasing? And what kind of after-sales service will they require?

I’m completely biased. At the moment, I believe BMW do build the best kind of (sensible) premium cars in the world. They are a joy to drive on today’s congested roads. (Along with some other premium cars.) But will they be able to do this in twenty years time? The challenge for them and the other premium brands is to continue building cars which discerning buyers will pay for. To do this, they will have to harness BEV skills and IT capabilities which don’t exist today. Will they do this by linking with IT companies? Probably!

Many premium car drivers spend more time with their car than with their partners. So the quality of the car is very important. No criticism, but if a consumer is happy to own and drive an unreliable old banger they won’t understand the motivation of someone who is prepared to pay a premium for a quality car.

We are necessarily discussing expensive cars a lot of the time on this forum because Tesla price their cars at £40 - £120k. They are not in the mass-market and show no signs of being able to compete in the future bus-like inner city market segment. Will they beat the Germans in the premium sector or will they run out of money?

:D Watch this space.

regards

Howard

Howard
Lemon Slice
Posts: 748
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 267 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262548

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 12:32 pm

I don't know how to cross post, but do look at Wheypat's post on his Model 3 test drive on the Cars and Motoring forum.

Someone more expert than me might give a link. ;)

regards

Howard


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests