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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
PinkDalek
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262560

Postby PinkDalek » November 6th, 2019, 1:07 pm

Howard wrote:I don't know how to cross post, but do look at Wheypat's post on his Model 3 test drive on the Cars and Motoring forum.

Someone more expert than me might give a link. ;)


You beat me to it but it is here:

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=262541#top

Just copy the URL and paste.

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262660

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 9:22 pm

Howard wrote:This is a hard-hitting article outlining the challenges to the German car manufacturing industry and it touches on much of the discussion on this forum.


I think it has flaws, which isn't to say it isn't worthwhile, it would certainly act as a much more concise primer for those joining the thread...

Howard wrote:
What will happen to the premium car market? I’ve picked out one quote from the Spiegel article which I think is perceptive.

And there is much to suggest that BMW isn't planning to abandon its hesitant course any time soon, despite its planned introduction of new electric vehicle models. CEO Zipse isn't a fan of taking incalculable risks, neither with the production of electric vehicles nor when it comes to mobility and car-sharing services. BMW's core competency, he says, is "building the best cars in the world." That, he continues, "is the real challenge facing our industry."

A key question for me then is, (making a huge assumption) if our society doesn’t change dramatically over the next twenty years, what kind of car will a consumer who wants a premium brand be purchasing? And what kind of after-sales service will they require?

I’m completely biased. At the moment, I believe BMW do build the best kind of (sensible) premium cars in the world. They are a joy to drive on today’s congested roads. (Along with some other premium cars.) But will they be able to do this in twenty years time? The challenge for them and the other premium brands is to continue building cars which discerning buyers will pay for. To do this, they will have to harness BEV skills and IT capabilities which don’t exist today. Will they do this by linking with IT companies? Probably!


I think at that point we need to look away from the technology and look at the consumer. There will be a luxury car segment, it is the nature of people for a variety of reasons to want more than 'basic'. So at what point will the premium be added? Tiffany doesn't have to mine and smelt their own gold, and they don't seem to have difficulty making money selling stuff made with the same ingredients Ratner's used. So even if there were only one company on the planet making electric drivetrains there's no reason why BMW couldn't make a profit refining them and sticking a nice snug cabin on top.

The article is very caught up in the supplier/producer relationship and a quest for dominance. Maybe it comes down to a matter of specialisation, and how many specialisations your size permits you to adequately fund. Given the choice between being third best at everything, or ruling one thing and getting paid for it whilst letting others get on with what they do better which offers the longest average time to failure. The sun sets on all empires, every company we discuss will one day go to zero. The best chance of a longer life for some of the smaller beasts might not be to try and rule the jungle, but to make sure that they are taking a percentage whoever does rule the jungle. If you produce 2.5m cars are year is it really realistic to try and take on Waymo and APTIV at AD, whilst trying to out platform VW, and inject your lifestyle client in to consumers lives more effectively than Apple, Google and Amazon? I would suggest it isn't.

Khan wants to make sure people to use "Hey Mercedes" when they order a pizza on the go and not other companies' services.


...really made me cringe. Is this really the best use of Daimler's resources? It isn't even credible. I'm not sure how many pizzas you order from your car, but the reason why Amazon, Apple and Google have reach in this area is because they are ubiquitous. I'd put money on the fact that 90% of people reading this are within 10 feet, of a device equipped with google assistant, alexa or i-thingy, many will be reading this on one. Mercedes sell under 2.5m cars a year. They are not ubiquitous. A Mercedes driver's next car might be another Mercedes, but it might well not be. An Android users next phone will almost certainly be an Android, same with Apple. Massive, stable user bases who are entrenched enough to invest their lifestyle in to one infrastructure. My phone is made by Samsung. It has a dedicated Bixby button which they've done their very best to prevent people reassigning much to the annoyance of many. It only ever gets hit by accident while your picking up the phone. Mercedes are not going to succeed where Samsung have failed. This is pure hubris.

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262666

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 10:04 pm

Tesla Hopes to Get China Carmaking License by Year-End


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd-denholm

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262731

Postby odysseus2000 » November 7th, 2019, 10:34 am

Several points:

The good sales for the e-tron & similar are not indicative of a great model, but the consequence of heavy VW promotion and calling in favours. By contrast, if e.g. the E-tron sales stay high over the next year+ one can begin to say it is a hit or not.

The performance of the Porsche against the Tesla was informative. A newly designed sports car only just managed to beat a saloon car designed a decade before. This gives an indication of the lead that Tesla have.

The idea that someone who doesn’t spend more time in their car than with a partner can’t comprehend what it means to have a luxury car is an interesting idea. Generally the folk who live in their cars are sales people who like a boost to their ego from having some flashy motor, except this does not go down well with customers who feel they are paying for it and so sales folk are often compelled to have some mid range modest motor. Most of the folk i know with flashy motors don’t drive them much, home to office, golf club etc. Rarely do I see them being hoofed on long European trips. They are bought to confirm the individuals status to themselves, friends neighbour and most often in-laws. Behind every successful individual there is an astonished mother in law rings true many times and flash motors help with this. For any manufacturer there is often a basic widget that they want in the market and which is the main seller. But there are always folk who want something beyond basic as an ego enhancer and so manufactures usually create a range of premium products for these buyers. Often these products due to less scale have more troubles than the basic widgets, but folk will overlook all manner of things if what they are buying is an in favour make. I do this will my nano scale business knowing that I will make most of my income from the basic but will get some more prosperous folk who will want to spend more. Then comes the buyers dilema, should he or she stick with a legacy motor that potentially has more service and reliability or should they go for the new things which has street cred although perhaps less reliability. Some will put reliability as number 1, others want street cred and that’s about all there is to it. One doesn’t need to live in a car to understand this or own one. It is simple marketing as practiced since the invention of wealth. The general rule is that new comers usually trounce legacy.

Another area where folk seem confused is on what BEV mean to existing sellers. In general it means a significant curtailment in service and parts income, something that has become important streams of dosh for all motor makers. Additionally it means the demise of many of the auto suppliers who make stuff not needed in BEV and that means a whole lot of economic wow for Germany. One might expect that legacy auto would see such threats and adapt, the lesson from history is the opposite.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262733

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 10:46 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Several points:

The good sales for the e-tron & similar are not indicative of a great model, but the consequence of heavy VW promotion and calling in favours.


You do realise that even if you are right, which is far from a given, cars sold because of good marketing still count, or is this another rule we have to observe to avoid admitting that VW know what they are doing?

...oh, and who are favours being called in from?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262752

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 11:38 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The idea that someone who doesn’t spend more time in their car than with a partner can’t comprehend what it means to have a luxury car is an interesting idea. Generally the folk who live in their cars are sales people who like a boost to their ego from having some flashy motor, except this does not go down well with customers who feel they are paying for it and so sales folk are often compelled to have some mid range modest motor. Most of the folk i know with flashy motors don’t drive them much, home to office, golf club etc. Rarely do I see them being hoofed on long European trips.

And there in a nutshell you have the problem with the electric car concept.

I used to drive about 30,000 miles a year, often 250 or more miles a day, sometimes in Europe and seldom with stops at places where I might be able to top up a battery.

The cars I drove had to be reliable, had to be left at airports for a week or more, and had to be capable of being driven at short notice.

That is where the electric car falls down.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262767

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 12:28 pm

tjh290633 wrote:That is where the electric car falls down.


I have a relative who is convinced electric cars will fail for exactly the same reasons. What he can't understand is that the number of people with his requirements are vanishingly small, and BEV's will get by quite alright without him thank you very much.

Besides 250 miles in a day is not a problem you can do that without stopping if you buy an appropriate car and leave home with a full tank, places people stop will develop charging, and at <30 mins for a 20%-80% giving cars 600+ mile ranges stops will become trivial and soon unnoticed.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262799

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 3:00 pm

BobbyD wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:That is where the electric car falls down.


I have a relative who is convinced electric cars will fail for exactly the same reasons. What he can't understand is that the number of people with his requirements are vanishingly small, and BEV's will get by quite alright without him thank you very much.

Besides 250 miles in a day is not a problem you can do that without stopping if you buy an appropriate car and leave home with a full tank, places people stop will develop charging, and at <30 mins for a 20%-80% giving cars 600+ mile ranges stops will become trivial and soon unnoticed.

The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262805

Postby vrdiver » November 7th, 2019, 3:20 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

Where there's a problem, there's a solution (so I'm told).

With modern technology any smartphone user should be able to identify and, if necessary, reserve a charging point. I'm sure car parks will either install charging points, or more likely add a full charge as an extra service - like meet 'n' greet or off-airport parking where they will move the cars to minimise space requirements, it's perfectly feasible to add a workflow in to take a car to be charged whilst being stored. A quick google turned up https://www.holidayextras.co.uk/airport ... rging.html as an example.

In the transition phase, when BEVs are a small percentage of the UK fleet, this should work fine. As that percentage grows, the infrastructure will have time to grow with it. Modern apps should make it relatively easy to ensure the BEV users get what they need without too much drama or inconvenience.

The small fly in the ointment? Chicken-and-egg syndrome, where people like me won't switch to BEV without the infrastructure and the infrastructure investors won't commit until people like me switch, but even I see that that problem is shrinking as the early adopters on both sides are growing in numbers.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262807

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 3:24 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH


Cafes and other retail locations love chargers, you might notice supermarkets have been an early source of charge points. Anything which encourages people with money to linger around tills...

For hotels it will become a competitive necessity if they rely on road traffic for customers, and again, worst case scenario, if your driving far enough to use a hotel rather than travel home you'll have driven past a fast charger...

If the office or factory you are visiting doesn't have the courtesy to provide a plug in then if you've travelled to far to do the round trip on a single charge you will invariably, or will soon have invariably driven past a fast charger to get there. Stop off for 20 minutes, have a coffee, finish the paperwork, and you're back on your way...

A charger at every long term spot would be a waste of money. However working out how to give every car a charge the day before it's owner returned wouldn't take an Einstein, whether you move the car to a charger, or a charger to the car. It might change how long term parking is run, but it's not actually difficult.

You can already see if chargers are occupied on a lot of networks, and coordination between cars in need of a charge and chargers should only get better and networks bigger, more inventive and more intensive. These might constitute uncertainties big enough to prevent people moving now, but they aren't going to prove long terms hurdles and they aren't typical requirements. They won't hold back BEV's and as BEV's become more ubiquitous their infrastructure will develop to eliminate them completely.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262814

Postby dspp » November 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm

I see a lot of Teslas parked in LHR and LGW car parks. Yes I'm sure they'd like to be plugged in on a 13A or 16A socket doing a slowcharge in their absence, but it doesn't seem to be preventing their adoption. My calcs are that for my use case a 300-mile range suffices for long term airport access.
regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262817

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 3:54 pm

The only places that I see public chargers are at the railway station. Cars plugged in and left all day. I see a BMW iQ plugged in outside its owner's residence, but off road. None at supermarkets or public car parks.

There is the odd Leaf or Tesla about, no doubt charged at home. The others are Milk and More's German milk floats, no doubt charged up at the dairy for the next day's runs.

We haven't really moved on far from the old milk float era.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262828

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 4:42 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The only places that I see public chargers are at the railway station. Cars plugged in and left all day. I see a BMW iQ plugged in outside its owner's residence, but off road. None at supermarkets or public car parks.

There is the odd Leaf or Tesla about, no doubt charged at home. The others are Milk and More's German milk floats, no doubt charged up at the dairy for the next day's runs.

We haven't really moved on far from the old milk float era.

TJH


We obviously live in quite different places. I don't drive, and so don't spend a lot of time around car parks or petrol stations but still know of 5 charge sites within walking distance including kerbside chargers, a supermarket, and a petrol station. The one place which doesn't have chargers is the railway station...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262836

Postby Howard » November 7th, 2019, 5:04 pm

vrdiver wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

Where there's a problem, there's a solution (so I'm told).

With modern technology any smartphone user should be able to identify and, if necessary, reserve a charging point. I'm sure car parks will either install charging points, or more likely add a full charge as an extra service - like meet 'n' greet or off-airport parking where they will move the cars to minimise space requirements, it's perfectly feasible to add a workflow in to take a car to be charged whilst being stored. A quick google turned up https://www.holidayextras.co.uk/airport ... rging.html as an example.

In the transition phase, when BEVs are a small percentage of the UK fleet, this should work fine. As that percentage grows, the infrastructure will have time to grow with it. Modern apps should make it relatively easy to ensure the BEV users get what they need without too much drama or inconvenience.

The small fly in the ointment? Chicken-and-egg syndrome, where people like me won't switch to BEV without the infrastructure and the infrastructure investors won't commit until people like me switch, but even I see that that problem is shrinking as the early adopters on both sides are growing in numbers.


You are right in principle. But BEVs only account for 1.4% of new cars purchased in the UK (up from 0.6% at this time last year). I'm guessing that most of those cars are second cars used for short journeys and generally they aren't cheap, so it may take a few more years for early adopters to make infrastructure investments worthwhile to support higher mileage business and commuter users. Of course our politicians will promise massive investments, but so far haven't done that much to encourage drivers to change.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262870

Postby odysseus2000 » November 7th, 2019, 9:00 pm

I am interested in how many jobs now require high mileage car driving, say in the 20k+ miles per year category.

At one time there were sales reps whizzing up and down motorways as this was the only way to put product and potential customer together.

However, we now live in a UK when something ordered one day often appears in a few days, often the next day. E.g. on Sunday I ordered some horse shoe nails, they were with me by lunch on Monday. Clearly there are guys in vans who are doing incredible mileages, but as the ability to make by additive manufacture rises will even these high mileage trips begin to decline. It is now becoming commonplace for a supplier to send not a physical product but instead the gcode to make the device in an additive or 3d printer. An acquaintance was telling me that the US airforce no longer ships many spare parts, but instead uses 3d metal printers to make what ever is needed on site. The advantages to this are large and compelling and I see more and more of this capability and falling prices.

Additionally via online images and video I can get a very good idea, usually much better than having a sales person demonstrate it, about anything I might want and can order it having seen such presentations without the need for any other kind of interaction.

Clearly there are jobs were someone needs to drive a car and turn up, Thinking off the top my head things like emergency doctors, police, entertainers, specialised technicians for repair and setup/de-setup of big kit, outdoor broadcasts, journalists/reporters... and it looks very likely that many of these jobs can not become extinct, but it also looks to me like many other jobs are becoming extinct. Or am I wrong. Are there other classes of jobs that are expanding and which require lots of folk to drive very long distances in cars?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262878

Postby dspp » November 7th, 2019, 10:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:An acquaintance was telling me that the US airforce no longer ships many spare parts, but instead uses 3d metal printers to make what ever is needed on site. The advantages to this are large and compelling and I see more and more of this capability and falling prices.


Your acquaintance is mistaken. They are running trials with this in a few locations for a very limited number of parts. Yes it may come, but not as quick as you think.The disadvantages are great, and equally compelling.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262903

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 3:02 am

BobbyD wrote:
The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.


Speaking of which following Audi Brussels being certified carbon neutral, and the id.3 becoming the first car to emerge from a carbon neutral production process:

BENTLEY MOTORS BECOMES THE UK'S FIRST CARBON NEUTRAL LUXURY AUTOMOTIVE FACTORY

British marque aims to become the world’s most sustainable luxury automotive manufacturer
100% of electricity sourced for its site in Crewe, England, is from renewable generation
Factory headquarters certified by the Carbon Trust to PAS 2060 Carbon Neutral standard
Brand is accelerating its journey towards electrification
Bentley to offer hybrid variant of all models by 2023 and a BEV by 2025


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/newsite ... ve-factory

If the motivation behind electric is to reduce CO2 emissions, it really is time that subsidies reflected CO2 emitted during production.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262933

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:37 am

BobbyD wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.


Speaking of which following Audi Brussels being certified carbon neutral, and the id.3 becoming the first car to emerge from a carbon neutral production process:

BENTLEY MOTORS BECOMES THE UK'S FIRST CARBON NEUTRAL LUXURY AUTOMOTIVE FACTORY

British marque aims to become the world’s most sustainable luxury automotive manufacturer
100% of electricity sourced for its site in Crewe, England, is from renewable generation
Factory headquarters certified by the Carbon Trust to PAS 2060 Carbon Neutral standard
Brand is accelerating its journey towards electrification
Bentley to offer hybrid variant of all models by 2023 and a BEV by 2025


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/newsite ... ve-factory

If the motivation behind electric is to reduce CO2 emissions, it really is time that subsidies reflected CO2 emitted during production.


Do these carbon neutral figures include battery production?

The Bentley article does not, as far as I can tell, discuss anything other than their UK factory.

For the other claims such as the VW one about their latest models, does this also include the co2 emission from battery production, something that I believe VW contract out to suppliers?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262937

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:43 am

Tesla comes top in Moodys car transition assessment:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-top-sco ... ssessment/

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262941

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:49 am

Model 3 most efficient ev produced:

https://electrek.co/2019/11/07/2020-tesla-model-3/

Regards,


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