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Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 3:43 am
by BobbyD
VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 5:53 am
by Itsallaguess
BobbyD wrote:
VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545


An unequivocal conclusion then, regarding the current electric vs hydrogen options and their comparable efficiency losses -

“No sustainable economy can afford to use twice as much renewable energy [due to efficiency losses] to drive fuel cell cars instead of battery-powered vehicles,”

An interesting article - thanks.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 5:55 am
by ReallyVeryFoolish
Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 6:02 am
by Itsallaguess
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The article covers the comparison of overall efficiency rates in this picture -

https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com/system/production/media/31092/images_file_en/ef572872996eed86429e4bee494924b1b86dbd56/DB2019NR01122_overfull.jpg?1573138998

Hopefully It's clear from the above that there are physical efficiency losses beyond the initial generation of the energy.

Link to the article itself - https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/stories/hydrogen-or-battery-5545

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 8:26 am
by odysseus2000
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The fuel is free, but not the tech to convert this fuel into electric suitable for human use.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 9:06 am
by odysseus2000
BobbyD wrote:VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545


This quote inside gives the current relative advantage of Tesla which is aiming for 1 million cars per year next year compared to VW:

In just a few years, Volkswagen intends to sell more than one million electric vehicles a year.


It has been obvious, since all of this move to cleaner transport began, to anyone with a physics degree that BEV are much more efficient than all current competing tech and as such all the fuel cell and hydrogen programs etc for passenger cars are there to get political contributions to running a research group that will not produce a practical passenger car.

For now and amazingly enough I completely agree with VW as to the way forward being BEV. Any new tech touted has to be better in terms of performance and cost. I currently do not see any competition for road car BEV. I am also far from clear that the touted uses for alternatives in stationary, heavy vehicles or long distance vehicles have any viability. The only areas that currently still looks like they will need hydro-carbon/heat engines fueling is long distance air transport, say > 1000 miles and space rockets.

I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels. There is a case that they will continue to run on the crude refining remnants as now with associated heavy pollution, but there are also suggestions that they will need to be cleaner going forwards. In some cases such as the China to Europe rail connection they can be reduced in volume by this competition. Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 10:38 am
by dspp
odysseus2000 wrote:
I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels. There is a case that they will continue to run on the crude refining remnants as now with associated heavy pollution, but there are also suggestions that they will need to be cleaner going forwards. In some cases such as the China to Europe rail connection they can be reduced in volume by this competition. Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.

Regards,


o2000,
I have studied this aspect a bit over the years, and done some sums. If you strip out all the fossil fuel movements by ship (oil, gas, coal) that reduces oceanic shipping considerably. Then take out all the Asia <> Europe freight as that can go rail (the track capacity is already in place) and the rail can run on renewables. This leaves not as much as you might think, and if you watch some of the long term positioning the major shipping companies are doing, you can see that they are doing the parallel analysis. It would not take that many major rail investments to delete a lot of the rest (Bering Straits, Darien Gap). By the way two thirds of shipping companies run at a loss ....
Regards,
dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 1:42 pm
by BobbyD
Itsallaguess wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The article covers the comparison of overall efficiency rates in this picture -

https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com/system/production/media/31092/images_file_en/ef572872996eed86429e4bee494924b1b86dbd56/DB2019NR01122_overfull.jpg?1573138998

Hopefully It's clear from the above that there are physical efficiency losses beyond the initial generation of the energy.

Link to the article itself - https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/stories/hydrogen-or-battery-5545

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


The upshot of which is:

What is clear is that hydrogen-powered e-cars will increasingly become more expensive to drive than battery-powered vehicles, not only in terms of purchase, but above also in terms of operation. The double primary energy requirement of hydrogen-powered vehicles compared to battery-powered vehicles will be reflected in consumer prices. Drivers are already paying around nine to twelve euros per 100 kilometers for hydrogen-powered cars, but only two to seven euros per 100 kilometers (depending on the electricity prices in the individual countries) for battery-powered e-cars, depending on varying individual mobility habits.


The dinner may be free but you need a more expensive plate to eat it off.

odysseus2000 wrote:This quote inside gives the current relative advantage of Tesla which is aiming for 1 million cars per year next year compared to VW:

In just a few years, Volkswagen intends to sell more than one million electric vehicles a year.


Yeah, but look at the comparative growth rates!

VW sold under 100,000 BEV's last year.

Image

- https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com ... 1573029920

Zwickau is already building id.3's, Anting is built and expected to come on line at the same time as Foshan, throw in the Taycan line in Zuffenhausen and that's already pushing a million right there, without touching America or half their European sites. And they aren't short of factories to convert for phase 2!

They've also mastered the art of the infographic...

odysseus2000 wrote:For now and amazingly enough I completely agree with VW as to the way forward being BEV. Any new tech touted has to be better in terms of performance and cost.


There's nothing surprising about it, you've agreed with VW for a long time! They aren't playing around. They've made a very substantial bet on electric, and if it comes off it is going to leave them in an incredible position.

odysseus2000 wrote:I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels.


Some years ago I saw a proposal for autonomous clippers to sail major 'safe' routes...

odysseus2000 wrote:Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods ...Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.


Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage. It's something I've taken my eye off after a deep dive some years ago, and it definmitely has major uses, but nothing at the moment which is going to make a significant dent in delivery miles. Having said that the sequel to William Gibson's the peripheral is due out soon, so I wouldn't rule out a spike in media coverage.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 7:36 pm
by odysseus2000
BobbyD
Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage.


Inventory is the enemy of most business for the storage and the depreciation.

If the world can move to on demand manufacturing there will be substantial cost reduction in storage and in depreciation of stock.

The effect of depreciation is very clearly seen with old car parts. I can often buy bits for my 2002 Volvo for perhaps 1/5th to 1/10th the price for a much newer model as the sellers are desperate to unload stock and free up warehouse space and fear that in a few years the stock will be scrap value only, so they offer it at much lower prices to move it while it has some value.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 10th, 2019, 7:46 pm
by odysseus2000

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 11th, 2019, 2:08 am
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage.


Inventory is the enemy of most business for the storage and the depreciation.


...but there's no benefit in laying out for expensive machinery, and 5 tons of material for it to slowly turn in to screws if you get through 5 tons of screws a week made and delivered for a fraction of a percent of the cost. In that regard it's better suited to the things you have to have lying around on the off chance. There's no benefit to replacing specialist manufacturing of easy to source items for which you have a predictable demand.

There are of course also things where AM is actually a better production process, but that's a different kettle of fish.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 11th, 2019, 9:12 am
by odysseus2000
Off grid in New York for 33 days, but with all modern conveniences still working:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/10/3- ... ssion=true

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 11th, 2019, 10:06 am
by odysseus2000
BobbyD
...but there's no benefit in laying out for expensive machinery, and 5 tons of material for it to slowly turn in to screws if you get through 5 tons of screws a week made and delivered for a fraction of a percent of the cost. In that regard it's better suited to the things you have to have lying around on the off chance. There's no benefit to replacing specialist manufacturing of easy to source items for which you have a predictable demand.


Yes, but you don't have a car & have the experience of all the multitudes of bits that have to be held in a warehouse in case of need. Sure for commodity items like fixings it makes no sense to have additive manufacturing, but for many car parts the savings over not having to stock & characterise in an easy retrievable manner literally 100 of thousands of parts is substantial. The tech hasn't quite reached the replicator level it needs to, but even now one can print many parts that traditionally needed casting, machining, finishing etc meaning no stock sitting about, no depreciation as the feed stocks have multiple uses etc.

This tech is fabulous for the coming Lunar constructions, put a refining facility there, then 3d print what is needed from the purified elements. One facility making numerous widgets that previously would have had to come from the Earth. Ditto for the Martian facilities.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 11th, 2019, 1:01 pm
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but you don't have a car & have the experience of all the multitudes of bits that have to be held in a warehouse in case of need. Sure for commodity items like fixings it makes no sense to have additive manufacturing, but for many car parts the savings over not having to stock & characterise in an easy retrievable manner literally 100 of thousands of parts is substantial.


...so we agree that the world isn't going to move to manufacture on demand, but offers potential savings in the once in every little while category.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 11th, 2019, 1:48 pm
by BobbyD
A data point of questionable value:

Deliveries of the top-selling Tesla Model 3 electric sedans tailed off sharply in the month of New Zealand after frenetic activity in the previous two months.

New data released by the NZ Ministry of Transport shows that just 79 Model 3s were delivered in New Zealand in October, down from the 419 that were delivered from late August, when the first Model 3s arrived, through to the end of September.

The figures for New Zealand are likely a pointer to Australia, whose department of Transport does not track sales in detail but where anecdotal evidence points to a similar drop-off in deliveries. Which will be frustrating for those told they have to wait until the New Year to pick up their orders.


- https://thedriven.io/2019/11/10/tesla-m ... n-october/

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 12th, 2019, 3:47 pm
by BobbyD
A timely intervention form the always excellent Trade Talks podcast

Trade Talks 110: Will 3D Printing Increase Trade? Hear All About It

Companies can now "print" some products locally, obviating the need for trade. But for hearing aids, the economic shakeup has turned out different thus far. Caroline Freund and Michele Ruta (World Bank) join to discuss their new research examining the many ways the introduction of a transformative technology impacted global trade and consumer access to one important 3D-printed product.


- https://www.piie.com/experts/peterson-p ... l-about-it

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 12th, 2019, 11:29 pm
by odysseus2000

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 13th, 2019, 1:44 am
by odysseus2000
2nd part of conversation between Musk & Fridman:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=smK9dgdTl40

Interestingly, Musk described summon as like a human learning to drive in a car park & noted that if need be traffic lights could be input via geolocation, although the better idea was to have the AI recognise them.

He also reassert that computers will exceed all human capabilities.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 13th, 2019, 12:50 pm
by BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:Gigafactory in Berlin:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/tesla-c ... erlin.html

Regards,


Going back to the why the UK isn't the best place to build a battery manufactory:

Tesla cites Brexit as Germany chosen over UK for European plant

The Tesla boss, Elon Musk, has said Brexit uncertainty played a role in the firm’s decision to build its first European factory in Germany rather than the UK.

The billionaire entrepreneur revealed that the firm’s European battery plant would be built on the outskirts of Berlin.

Speaking to Auto Express after making the announcement, Musk said: “Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a gigafactory in the UK.”


- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -elon-musk

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: November 13th, 2019, 6:07 pm
by PeterGray
Unfortunately, that's no surprise