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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#264061

Postby odysseus2000 » November 13th, 2019, 10:01 pm

Model 3 owners are best salesforce:

https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/11 ... 42497?s=20

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Re: Musk endeavours

#264062

Postby odysseus2000 » November 13th, 2019, 10:02 pm

Model 3 wins award in Germany:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/119 ... 80800?s=20

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Re: Musk endeavours

#264565

Postby odysseus2000 » November 15th, 2019, 2:22 pm

Dundee, the electric capital of the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDpblnu9xUE&t=584s

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Re: Musk endeavours

#264611

Postby Howard » November 15th, 2019, 5:41 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Dundee, the electric capital of the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDpblnu9xUE&t=584s

Regards,


Very interesting video. Shows both the positive initiatives of the local Dundee Council and the challenges of persuading motorists to change to electric.

Electric taxis do seem to be an ideal use for EVs. Having said that, it is surprising that even with free charging and the superbly engineered charging stations, they are still in a minority in the city's taxi fleet.

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Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#264633

Postby odysseus2000 » November 15th, 2019, 7:53 pm

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Dundee, the electric capital of the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDpblnu9xUE&t=584s

Regards,


Very interesting video. Shows both the positive initiatives of the local Dundee Council and the challenges of persuading motorists to change to electric.

Electric taxis do seem to be an ideal use for EVs. Having said that, it is surprising that even with free charging and the superbly engineered charging stations, they are still in a minority in the city's taxi fleet.

regards

Howard


I got a bit confused over what was free as the taxi boss was saying the drivers liked that electric was only about 1/4 the cost of diesel, but if as the Council guy said that there was no tariff on the electric wouldn't the taxi have free fuel?

Still a glimpse imho of what to expect in every city every where. If solar can work well in Dundee it will work in most places even if some of the power has to be used to cool the solar panels in hot climes.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#264656

Postby BobbyD » November 15th, 2019, 10:33 pm

VW breaks ground on massive Tennessee EV plant, dubbed a “magic moment” by CEO

Volkswagen breaks ground Wednesday on its Tennessee plant that will produce two battery-powered cars, according to Reuters. Plans for the $800 million investment in the Chattanooga plant were first announced in January. The ground-breaking shows that Volkswagen is intent on achieving its goal of producing 50 million electric cars in the next several years.

...The first electric vehicle to be produced in Chattanooga will be an all-electric crossover based on the I.D. CROZZ Concept. When it rolls off the line in 2022, it will be the first electric vehicle to be produced in the US using Volkswagen’s MEB platform. The vehicle, initially to be imported, will be launched in the US market at the end of 2020.


- https://electrek.co/2019/11/12/vw-break ... nt-by-ceo/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265031

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 12:45 am

Large pile of money incoming.

The Volkswagen Group is continuing to invest strongly in its future. As part of Planning Round 68, the investment plan for 2020 to 2024* has been drawn up. The plan was dis-cussed during today’s meeting of the Supervisory Board and approved. The Group plans to spend nearly EUR 60 billion on the future areas of hybridization, electric mobility and digitalization in the next five years. This amounts to slightly more than 40 percent of the company’s investments in property, plant and equipment and all research and development costs during the planning period. Compared with the Group’s last Planning Round, it represents an increase of around 10 percentage points. The Group intends to invest around EUR 33 billion of this figure in electric mobility alone.

...

https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com ... 1573827586
Moderator Message:
Copyrighted image changed to a link. - Chris

During Planning Round 68, the long-term plan for the next 10 years was also modified. Through 2029, the Group plans to introduce up to 75 all-electric models to the market along with about 60 hybrid vehicles. The number of projected e-vehicles will rise to about 26 million, largely due to the addition of a year to the planning period to include 2029. Volkswagen is also planning to sell nearly 6 million hybrid vehicles by 2029.

About 20 million of the e-vehicles planned through 2029 will be based on the Group’s Modular Electric Drive Matrix (MEB). Most of the remaining 6 million vehicles will be based on the High Performance Platform (PPE). E-vehicles are scheduled to be made outside Germany by the company’s plants in Mlada Boleslav, Chattanooga, Foshan and Anting. Others will be produced by German plants in Zwickau, Emden, Hannover, Zuffenhausen and Dresden. Plans for the Emden site were confirmed, according to which production of the electric A-SUV (ID.Next) should start in 2022. A camouflaged version of the ID.Next was already presented at this year’s Internationale Automobil-Ausstellung (IAA). A decision about a planned multi-brand plant is scheduled to be made by the end of the year.

* The Chinese joint ventures are not included in the consolidated group and are therefore excluded from the above-mentioned planning. These joint ventures finance investments in plants and products from their own resources.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... uture-5576

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265081

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 9:39 am

If the VW numbers are real, not just for the media then VW are betting the whole business on this strategy.

This may work out, but at the proposed levels of spend if anything unexpected happens the whole company will be in trouble.

Historically huge changes in direction accompanied by huge spend have regularly ended in disaster. Anyone remember UK's GE?

VW are admitting they have got things very badly wrong & are trying, or at least indicating to the media, that they now get it & are panicking to catch up.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265099

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 10:30 am

BobbyD wrote:
Moderator Message:
Copyrighted image changed to a link. - Chris


It's a press release conspicuously missing any copyright notification but including a statement of source, almost as though it is supposed to be republished...

odysseus2000 wrote:If the VW numbers are real, not just for the media then VW are betting the whole business on this strategy.


It's a lot of money, but VW are one of the biggest spenders on R&D on the planet. It's how they do.

It's a big bet, but it isn't the whole business, the clue would be in the ~40% of investments in R&D and tangible assets figure a not insignificant part of which is destined for hybridisation... that would leave ~60% being spent on other things.

This may work out, but at the proposed levels of spend if anything unexpected happens the whole company will be in trouble.


That's a a step up from your standard dead company walking assessment...

Historically huge changes in direction accompanied by huge spend have regularly ended in disaster. Anyone remember UK's GE?


This isn't a huge change in direction, VW have been spending significant amounts of cash on electrification for a while now, despite your fervent denial, and it is actually just a continuation of business as usual, research, design, build, sell, profit...

It represents an increase from around 30% of spending in those categories to about 40%. Sounds a little less dramatic, doesn't it?

Still it's interesting to hear you change from they aren't taking electric seriously they are doomed, to they are taking electric too seriously they are quite possibly doomed. Consistency of outcome regardless of the working required to reach the conclusion...

VW are admitting they have got things very badly wrong & are trying, or at least indicating to the media, that they now get it & are panicking to catch up.


No Ody, it really isn't. It is entirely in keeping with VW's previous approach to electric, which has been to spend slightly lower amounts of money on research, design and production of BEV's. Remember those phantom factories which didn't exist which are now producing the electric models which were the fevered product of a PR departments imagination until they entered production, billions spent on developing the MEB and PPE platforms for BEV's, the 20% stake in Northvolt, the battery development and pilot production line in Salzgitter, the VW/Northvolt joint project also in Salzgitter, the massive battery contracts...

Again, it represents an increase from around 30% to around 40%. That's progression in a developing market, not panic.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265153

Postby PeterGray » November 18th, 2019, 2:23 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:If the VW numbers are real, not just for the media then VW are betting the whole business on this strategy.



Surely that's exactly the logic of your own position - that EV is the future and they have to.

I'm not saying I disagree, it seems like an entirely rational decision for VW, following from some careful preparatory steps. I certainly wouldn't bet against them making it work.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265157

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 2:33 pm

BobbyD
Again, it represents an increase from around 30% to around 40%. That's progression in a developing market, not panic.


If this was happening in 2010 it would be all about progress, looking ahead, etc. But it is happening in 2019 after they have let Tesla and many other Chinese makers develop a whole load of tech.

This VW stuff, even if they do put all the advertised money in, is all about panic as they have eventually realised that legacy is in an evolutionary collapse.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265159

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 2:41 pm

PeterGray wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:If the VW numbers are real, not just for the media then VW are betting the whole business on this strategy.



Surely that's exactly the logic of your own position - that EV is the future and they have to.

I'm not saying I disagree, it seems like an entirely rational decision for VW, following from some careful preparatory steps. I certainly wouldn't bet against them making it work.


Yes, but it is a decision forced on VW with the enemy at the gate and they have little of their own battery capability.

The potential for VW to make some stupid mistakes in a transformation of this magnitude both technically and with their employees is very high. This is not a relaxed transition but a panic to junk their legacy and make electric work. In many historical cases such huge types of change have gone badly.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265191

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 4:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Again, it represents an increase from around 30% to around 40%. That's progression in a developing market, not panic.


If this was happening in 2010 it would be all about progress, looking ahead, etc. But it is happening in 2019 after they have let Tesla and many other Chinese makers develop a whole load of tech.


Try rereading what I actually wrote.

PeterGray wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:If the VW numbers are real, not just for the media then VW are betting the whole business on this strategy.



Surely that's exactly the logic of your own position


That would imply that the logic led to the position, rather than the belief demanding the rationalisation, which patently isn't the case, especially when the rationalisations used are self-contradictory.

odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but it is a decision forced on VW with the enemy at the gate and they have little of their own battery capability.


Oh, Tesla aren't the enemy, look at this wonderful opportunity they have provided to VW, a shift in paradigm which with their superior wealth, scale, research and production capabilities VW can further increase the gap between themselves and the rest of the auto-industry. I don't like Tesla for reasons discussed at length in this thread, but they aren't the enemy they are the agent of change and change is good for those who can afford it.

...and they are nowhere near the gate.

Granted they aren't Panasonic, but then neither is any other car maker. Their Northvolt investment does however mean that unlike any other car maker they actually have a stake in battery production, and Northvolt's focus on green energy utilisation is going to give them a significant economic and political advantage. VW's battery development plant is up and running, Northvolt Ett is under construction, where exactly are the Tesla battery factories?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265200

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2019, 5:20 pm

BobbyD wrote:where exactly are the Tesla battery factories?


If the EV-bet goes pear shaped both Tesla and VAG would be likely to go under given how heavily invested both are at this stage. Which one would sink first is not that interesting a question.

As to whether Tesla are as-invested in batteries as VAG is a similar question. Tesla are certainly invested via Grohmann pack-assembly machine manufacturer, and through the Maxwell acquisition, and through owning the premises that the cell suppliers inhabit. VAG seem to have a more direct exposure via Northvolt, but I am not sure that one could meaningfully say either was materially ahead/behind the other in direct cell & pack exposure, given the differences in approach so far.

Furthermore my personal suspicion is that the cell & pack end 'strategy' differences between both companies have until now been largely driven by capital constraints and opportunistic events, and that there is no clear future strategic pathway difference emerging yet. We might even see further convergence in strategy as both seek to fill the vertical. That is they will seek to own sufficient of each stage of the manufacturing & R&D competency as to be able to safeguard their overall position, whilst only actually doing say one-third or a quarter of each stage so as not to make too pure a bet, and leaving two or three tier one contractors (e.g. Toshiba, Panasonic) competing for the other 2/3 - 3/4 of the required capacity.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265213

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 7:02 pm

Sod it just lost an extensive reply due to an accidental key press...

dspp wrote:If the EV-bet goes pear shaped both Tesla and VAG would be likely to go under given how heavily invested both are at this stage. Which one would sink first is not that interesting a question.


You'll recall that some time ago it was me pointing out that if BEV's fail it will cost VW more than Dieslegate, a point recieved with, it has to be said a certain degree of scepticism.

You might find the question you pose uninteresting, but what I find interesting in assessing the validity of claims put and arguments made within this thread, and the point I was making, is that the very same poster who 5 minutes ago was claiming that VW's electrification claims were a PR sham designed to put a false sheen of modernity on an outdated and decaying carcass whose unwillingness to genuinely engage in electrification would lead to the inevitable downfall of the company is now of the opinion that VW's vigorous financing of their electrification scheme is in all likelihood going to lead to rack and ruin and the downfall of the company. All roads it seem lead to the imminent death of VW...

dspp wrote:As to whether Tesla are as-invested in batteries as VAG is a similar question. Tesla are certainly invested via Grohmann pack-assembly machine manufacturer, and through the Maxwell acquisition, and through owning the premises that the cell suppliers inhabit. VAG seem to have a more direct exposure via Northvolt, but I am not sure that one could meaningfully say either was materially ahead/behind the other in direct cell & pack exposure, given the differences in approach so far.


I'm glad you agree with the point I was making, which was to refute the claim that VW are substantially disadvantaged in that area compared to Tesla...

dspp wrote:Furthermore my personal suspicion is that the cell & pack end 'strategy' differences between both companies have until now been largely driven by capital constraints and opportunistic events, and that there is no clear future strategic pathway difference emerging yet. We might even see further convergence in strategy as both seek to fill the vertical. That is they will seek to own sufficient of each stage of the manufacturing & R&D competency as to be able to safeguard their overall position, whilst only actually doing say one-third or a quarter of each stage so as not to make too pure a bet, and leaving two or three tier one contractors (e.g. Toshiba, Panasonic) competing for the other 2/3 - 3/4 of the required capacity.


I've no idea what the batteries will look like in 10 years time, but I am certain that VW's path to wherever that place is marked out in fairly heavy pencil. The presence of platforms with battery pack specifications which are envisioned as providing the basis of millions and tens of millions of vehicles indicates that they are not starting off down this path blind.

VW's dilution is more likely to come from partial ownership of the complete process than complete ownership of part of the process given their partial stake in what has to be assumed to be their future supplier of choice in Europe, and their resulting 60% stake in 50/50 JV's.

Their research facility also points towards an intention to be fully involved in batteries from the design stage on, and given the amount of internal contracting which goes on at VW, I would be totally unsurprised if VW ended up with overall or substantial control of their baseline supply and went outside for 'extras'. This might vary by territory. It's notable that the MEB battery pack retains the flexibility of being able to take pouch or prism cells though, so filling in while production rises to meet demand shouldn't be too arduous or restrictive a process.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265224

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 7:45 pm

BobbyD
You might find the question you pose uninteresting, but what I find interesting in assessing the validity of claims put and arguments made within this thread, and the point I was making, is that the very same poster who 5 minutes ago was claiming that VW's electrification claims were a PR sham designed to put a false sheen of modernity on an outdated and decaying carcass whose unwillingness to genuinely engage in electrification would lead to the inevitable downfall of the company is now of the opinion that VW's vigorous financing of their electrification scheme is in all likelihood going to lead to rack and ruin and the downfall of the company. All roads it seem lead to the imminent death of VW...


Yes, that is exactly the point.

VW have left if very late to go for this.

Now they are in panic mode.

If you study company failures you will find exactly this kind of behaviour. First ignore and underestimate your competitor, sit on your complacent laurels and then suddenly find folk like what your competitor has and when projecting forward the whole calamity becomes clear. So they go at it hammer and tongs and the chance of making serious errors climbs fast.

It is extremely non-trivial and very hard to change the direction of an established industry and compete with upstarts. Most times the legacy business gets creamed.

What I am seeing is exactly what I have been expecting since Tesla started selling BEV.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265257

Postby BobbyD » November 18th, 2019, 11:10 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:VW have left if very late to go for this.

Now they are in panic mode.


You do understand that endlessly repeating something doesn't make it true don't you?

Of course it looks to you like VW have left it late, because you point blank refuse to acknowledge any work they have done up to this point!

There are a number of factors which have influenced VW's timing, a lack of foresight is not one of them. We're on the verge of their being a decent BEV market to dominate, a burgeoning BEV infrastructure, and regulatory restrictions which make not being in BEV's very expensive. Timing, is, as they say, everything.

odysseus2000 wrote:Now they are in panic mode.


Steady your quivering knees Ody, you are projecting.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265259

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2019, 11:33 pm

BobbyD
You do understand that endlessly repeating something doesn't make it true don't you?

Of course it looks to you like VW have left it late, because you point blank refuse to acknowledge any work they have done up to this point!

There are a number of factors which have influenced VW's timing, a lack of foresight is not one of them. We're on the verge of their being a decent BEV market to dominate, a burgeoning BEV infrastructure, and regulatory restrictions which make not being in BEV's very expensive. Timing, is, as they say, everything.


This game is played at two levels.

Game 1) There is the press-release, intellectual game which is like any propaganda set out to make things look as good as possible and that everything is flowing in a calculated and sensible manner. This is designed to be helpful and supportive of shareholders, politicians etc. It is however, a game of smoke and mirrors created by ad agencies to make their customer look good and will mean nothing if game 2 is lost.

Game 2) This is the practical game of what is and has been done. Here we still see VW talking making small numbers of BEV and continuing to flog as much legacy as possible. Meanwhile Fritz et al who works in some part of VW that is needed for legacy, but not for BEV is getting worried and is seeking help from politicians and unions because he/she sees their job is currently strong but all of the press releases about BEV make him or her think the job may melt like snow in the sun, leaving him/her with nowt.

Management have to play game 1, but its game 2 that matters and changing a mature industry like legacy auto to BEV is going to be a very serious challenge and for now they haven't really started.

Most investors will be happy thinking of game 1 and this will be endlessly repeated and fed to shareholders, but if things go wrong with game 2 the same shareholders will get super militant and feel at best mislead as reality and game 1 will diverge.

In my experience any shareholder who follows game 1 is asking to get their stake miniaturised.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265273

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 2:35 am

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) new ID.3 electric vehicle will be 40% cheaper to build than the electric version of its Golf model, Chief Executive Herbert Diess told investors on Monday.

The battery in the new ID.3 can be used to add structural rigidity to the body and the modular layout of the battery allows for advantages in packaging and economies of scale.

“If you focus on an electric platform, all in all it accounts for a 40% reduction against the predecessor electric Golf,” Diess said. “Most of it from cells and the battery system. Around 5-10% comes from dedicating an entire plant to electric vehicles.”

This cost reduction is one of the reasons that Volkswagen is confident it can shift from making combustion-engined to electric cars without eroding the company’s profit margin, VW said.


- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volk ... ce=twitter

Volkswagen continues to step up the pace of its electric offensive: The ID.3 will be assembled at the Gläserne Manufaktur in Dresden in addition to the Zwickau plant. This was announced today by Gunnar Killian, Volkswagen AG Board Member for Human Resources, at a works meeting in Dresden.

...Group Board Member, Gunnar Kilian, underscored: “The decision to bring the ID. family to Dresden lays a solid foundation for the future of this location in Saxony. Employment levels remain stable. And at the same time, we are stepping up the pace for e-mobility.



- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2020-5582

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Re: Musk endeavours

#265274

Postby BobbyD » November 19th, 2019, 2:44 am

odysseus2000 wrote:This game is played at two levels.


Ah, you mean the Twitter/Reality duality? I understand that's a problem for some companies.


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