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Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

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odysseus2000
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Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257143

Postby odysseus2000 » October 11th, 2019, 12:59 pm

US-China close to cease fir in tariff war?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WQ10X

As of typing, US Dow is up over 300 points and lots of US equity looks like it will gap up.

If it goes through it will likely help Trump's re-election chances.

The US markets if the gap up holds will trade just above where they were a year ago, suggesting that if the deal happens markets could move up significantly, likely draggging uk stock with international exposure.

Of course this might be premature and talks may not produce anything, but if the optimism is well placed it will be something of a vindication for the use of Tariffs to re-align trade practices.

It looks likely imho that there will be tariff engagement between the UK and the EU if a clean break Brexit happens which has the potential to work to the UK's advantage given that we are a net importer of European product although things could drag out like the US-China trouble.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257190

Postby odysseus2000 » October 11th, 2019, 4:06 pm

That was a nice, exciting and profitable start to the trading day.

I imagine that the zero commission regime begun by Schwab and now extended to various other US brokers has helped investor sentiment and motivation. Even though the commission rates I was paying were very low compared to how they were last century, the advent of zero commission is a great boon for anyone who trades frequently as I do.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257375

Postby dspp » October 12th, 2019, 2:18 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:US-China close to cease fir in tariff war?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WQ10X

As of typing, US Dow is up over 300 points and lots of US equity looks like it will gap up.

If it goes through it will likely help Trump's re-election chances.

The US markets if the gap up holds will trade just above where they were a year ago, suggesting that if the deal happens markets could move up significantly, likely draggging uk stock with international exposure.

Of course this might be premature and talks may not produce anything, but if the optimism is well placed it will be something of a vindication for the use of Tariffs to re-align trade practices.

It looks likely imho that there will be tariff engagement between the UK and the EU if a clean break Brexit happens which has the potential to work to the UK's advantage given that we are a net importer of European product although things could drag out like the US-China trouble.

Regards,


I don't think China will do any more than string the USA along for the next 6-months. They know that Trump is desperate to avoid a economic disaster, so any deal would be very much on their terms.

regards, dspp

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257492

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2019, 9:00 am

dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:US-China close to cease fir in tariff war?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WQ10X

As of typing, US Dow is up over 300 points and lots of US equity looks like it will gap up.

If it goes through it will likely help Trump's re-election chances.

The US markets if the gap up holds will trade just above where they were a year ago, suggesting that if the deal happens markets could move up significantly, likely draggging uk stock with international exposure.

Of course this might be premature and talks may not produce anything, but if the optimism is well placed it will be something of a vindication for the use of Tariffs to re-align trade practices.

It looks likely imho that there will be tariff engagement between the UK and the EU if a clean break Brexit happens which has the potential to work to the UK's advantage given that we are a net importer of European product although things could drag out like the US-China trouble.

Regards,


I don't think China will do any more than string the USA along for the next 6-months. They know that Trump is desperate to avoid a economic disaster, so any deal would be very much on their terms.

regards, dspp


Looking at what is going on in Honk Kong and the state of the Chinese economy as measured by autos:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3505389-c ... email_link

it seems to me that China has a lot of troubles here and that they need a deal quickly now. Another example is the collapse in sales for NIO electric cars.

Sure China can stall and hope that Trump gets voted out in 2020, but if he doesn't, or if he goes and the next Prez doesn't reverse the tariffs they are in trouble. Xi's power in part comes from the strength of the Chinese economy and without improvements he potentially faces more civil troubles as in Hong Kong and from competitors in his own party for his job.

One of the ways I look at what is happening in China is with the inventory in Poundland. Over the last few months, several items have vanished from Pound land stores: Powerbanks, accelerators for super glues, several battery lines, now what had been alkali batteries are often zinc carbon. I presume that some of this is the weakness in the £ but it all adds up to loss of sales by China and fits in with the narrative of a slowing Chinese economy. It would not surprise me to see a settlement in the US-China tariff dispute, as both sides need it now.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257518

Postby dspp » October 13th, 2019, 11:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:US-China close to cease fir in tariff war?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WQ10X

As of typing, US Dow is up over 300 points and lots of US equity looks like it will gap up.

If it goes through it will likely help Trump's re-election chances.

The US markets if the gap up holds will trade just above where they were a year ago, suggesting that if the deal happens markets could move up significantly, likely draggging uk stock with international exposure.

Of course this might be premature and talks may not produce anything, but if the optimism is well placed it will be something of a vindication for the use of Tariffs to re-align trade practices.

It looks likely imho that there will be tariff engagement between the UK and the EU if a clean break Brexit happens which has the potential to work to the UK's advantage given that we are a net importer of European product although things could drag out like the US-China trouble.

Regards,


I don't think China will do any more than string the USA along for the next 6-months. They know that Trump is desperate to avoid a economic disaster, so any deal would be very much on their terms.

regards, dspp


Looking at what is going on in Honk Kong and the state of the Chinese economy as measured by autos:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3505389-c ... email_link

it seems to me that China has a lot of troubles here and that they need a deal quickly now. Another example is the collapse in sales for NIO electric cars.

Sure China can stall and hope that Trump gets voted out in 2020, but if he doesn't, or if he goes and the next Prez doesn't reverse the tariffs they are in trouble. Xi's power in part comes from the strength of the Chinese economy and without improvements he potentially faces more civil troubles as in Hong Kong and from competitors in his own party for his job.

One of the ways I look at what is happening in China is with the inventory in Poundland. Over the last few months, several items have vanished from Pound land stores: Powerbanks, accelerators for super glues, several battery lines, now what had been alkali batteries are often zinc carbon. I presume that some of this is the weakness in the £ but it all adds up to loss of sales by China and fits in with the narrative of a slowing Chinese economy. It would not surprise me to see a settlement in the US-China tariff dispute, as both sides need it now.

Regards,


I think the NIO collapse is more to do with the fact that the Chinese state has decided that they are an EV loser, and instead swung their state effort behind Tesla as an EV winner. My reading (forget where) is that both NIO and TSLA put in to build a Shanghai factory, but only TSLA got given the slot. The level of integration in a NIO is low, and they are as a result becoming uncompetitive vs the competing vehicles. At least that's my reading around the situation.

Re Poundland might that not be more to do with creditworthiness & working capital at Poundland, rather than in China. See https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -steinhoff and https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -flotation which looks very much like rats wanting to jump ship.

Re China decelleration this is definitely happening, but unlike Trump they don't need to win an election next year. The squeeze between the rock & a hard place will be harder for Trump than for China.

Just my 2c, regards, dspp

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257529

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2019, 12:20 pm

Hi dspp,

Thank you, some excellent points made.

The sort of post & counter post that we need more of at the Lemon.

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257532

Postby dspp » October 13th, 2019, 12:41 pm

ody,

I'm doing my catch-up on Tesla stuff and came across this comments, associated with the news that Shanghai seems to have its paint shop operating (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafac ... out-video/),

"Sometime late in 2020 Q1 Tesla will deliver its 1 millionth vehicle after 17 years in existence. By Sept 30, 2021 they will have delivered their 2 millionth...at which point they will be at a delivery rate of 1 million/yr."

and this,

"Ford has been present in China for more than a decade already. They knew the regulations, market trends and restrictions. They decided to do close to nothing. Now that the double digit growth is gone, as the market saturate, they are suffering.

The only auto sector that is actually growing in China are BEVs and some hybrids. Ford have nothing to show for in the EV front and very unattractive prospect for the hybrids. In 2018 36% sales drop and last quarter another 30.3%, yikes.

With the crackdown on gas vehicles, the push for capable EVs from the government and the ever more competitive local automakers, it doesn't look good for Ford."


I am off to China to see clients shortly. I can absolutely guarantee from my day-job that China is going electric in every way except for air transport. A deceleration of GDP growth is not a reason to change that in their view.

regards, dspp

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257537

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2019, 1:35 pm

It is fascinating & amusing to listen to the callers to Farage lbc call in, going on about the global extinction crisis & how the UK is doing nothing & that China is even worse for co2. If I wanted to pick an area where the UK is doing some things right it would be on renewables, albeit imho outsourcing lots of stuff that could be done here. Meanwhile China is leading the world on BEV & the US, the other bad boy in co2, was the seed bed from which the shortly coming 1 million per year production of BEV grew from.

I have no idea why these facts have not yet reached the main stream media, but I expect it to eventually reach minds & then the price of Tesla equity to ramp very high.

Meanwhile Ford are in the pits followed just behind by the rest of legacy auto which seems determined to dig its own grave.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257709

Postby dspp » October 14th, 2019, 11:07 am

courtesy John Kemp Reuters who titles this "China very cautious about progress in trade talks"


However, uncertainty hovers over many issues, which requires China to stay patient and hold on to its strategic composure.

China's patience and composure stem from the steadiness and resilience of its economy, which has not "collapsed" under maximum-pressure measures but maintained a growth rate of 6.3 percent in the first half of this year, topping all other major economies.

............China has never provoked a conflict, nor will it shy away from one. The country is fully aware of the complexities and difficulties in resolving its economic and trade issues with the United States, and understands that there are snags along the way.

Yet, by having the worst in mind, making the most adequate preparations and striving for the best outcome, China can safeguard its core national interests and the interests of its people.

To remain patient and composed requires that China focus on its own affairs


http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/1012/c90000-9622292.html

China will stall. Trump will cave in to announce a 'win' imho.

- dspp

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257793

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 2:50 pm

dspp China will stall. Trump will cave in to announce a 'win' imho.


What ever happens Trump will announce a win.

I am just not so sure that China is a patient and unconcerned about events as this commentator suggests. It just looks like a bit of marketing propaganda. The situation in Hong Kong must be a worry for the Chinese cabinet.

It will be interesting if you get any steer about how China is doing during your forthcoming visit. My small contacts in Shenzhen seem to have become more cautious and nervous over the last few months.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257810

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 14th, 2019, 4:28 pm

I don't have major contacts in HK or China. My Dad live in HK back in the 90s and I visited there and "Communist" China for a couple of weeks.

My gut feel is that DJT won't get anything out of China that they aren't happy with. I don't think they (the Yanks) have quite grasped that the chosen opponents have got through the Great Leap Forward (and it's attendant famines) and the Cultural Revolution, are likely to not be too fazed by a silly Orange skinned man making threats and squeezing their profits a little. We are after all talking about a culture of people more likely to save, than borrow too, apparently.

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257817

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 4:47 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I don't have major contacts in HK or China. My Dad live in HK back in the 90s and I visited there and "Communist" China for a couple of weeks.

My gut feel is that DJT won't get anything out of China that they aren't happy with. I don't think they (the Yanks) have quite grasped that the chosen opponents have got through the Great Leap Forward (and it's attendant famines) and the Cultural Revolution, are likely to not be too fazed by a silly Orange skinned man making threats and squeezing their profits a little. We are after all talking about a culture of people more likely to save, than borrow too, apparently.


My also limited experience of the Chinese is that they are deal makers and deal doers above all else.

They want to be as prosperous and advanced as possible and to do that they know they must have good access to the US market. Imho, China wants a deal here as fast as it can be got so long as its not too disadvantageous. Witness how they embraced Tesla as the business of the moment in BEV and brought it in with borrowing coming from Chinese banks.

Imho the only other significant nation on the planet with similar interests in trade and business is the US and they both see themselves in the other and the Chinese see someone in Trump who they feel they can deal with, business men to business men.

I could be wrong, but the old adage about the Chinese being risk adverse savers does not square with my personal experience of them as ferocious competitors and hunters for any profitable business.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257825

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 14th, 2019, 5:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I don't have major contacts in HK or China. My Dad live in HK back in the 90s and I visited there and "Communist" China for a couple of weeks.

My gut feel is that DJT won't get anything out of China that they aren't happy with. I don't think they (the Yanks) have quite grasped that the chosen opponents have got through the Great Leap Forward (and it's attendant famines) and the Cultural Revolution, are likely to not be too fazed by a silly Orange skinned man making threats and squeezing their profits a little. We are after all talking about a culture of people more likely to save, than borrow too, apparently.


My also limited experience of the Chinese is that they are deal makers and deal doers above all else.

They want to be as prosperous and advanced as possible and to do that they know they must have good access to the US market. Imho, China wants a deal here as fast as it can be got so long as its not too disadvantageous. Witness how they embraced Tesla as the business of the moment in BEV and brought it in with borrowing coming from Chinese banks.

I know what you mean Ody. They can certainly barter, but I've seen that the world over.

And you are right that they want access to the US market.

I guess my key point when I spoke of the GLF and the Cultural Revolution is that these people will know suffering and hardship like no American has ever encountered. They can stick out the long game much better and the domestic population won't cry and pressure their "representatives". Certainly nothing like Midwestern Farmers, IMO.

Regards Trump, who knows right now? He's got so many troubles at home, I'm surprised he even knows one day to the next. I think he's slowly unravelling and I suspect the House and the Senate will impeach him. The Senate will probably be more than happy, when push comes to shove, to ditch him and throw Mike Pence in there instead. But that's more of a political comment, than a macro economic one.

Matt

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257852

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 7:27 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy
I guess my key point when I spoke of the GLF and the Cultural Revolution is that these people will know suffering and hardship like no American has ever encountered. They can stick out the long game much better and the domestic population won't cry and pressure their "representatives". Certainly nothing like Midwestern Farmers, IMO.

Regards Trump, who knows right now? He's got so many troubles at home, I'm surprised he even knows one day to the next. I think he's slowly unravelling and I suspect the House and the Senate will impeach him. The Senate will probably be more than happy, when push comes to shove, to ditch him and throw Mike Pence in there instead. But that's more of a political comment, than a macro economic one.

Matt



I lived in the US for several years. There are lots of very poor folk there who have real hard lives, not cultural revolution hard, but hard enough compared to poor in the UK.

It is hard to read the political situation re Trump, but having lived there when Clinton was being daily attacked for his alleged affair with Monica, clothes being taken and tested for sexual fluids etc etc and with every Republican and his dog certain they had him, he came out smelling of roses. For now the US markets are too robust for me to take impeachment of Trump as even a very remote possibility. I think he is likely going to get re-elected as his power base his very strong and the democrats don't seem able to unite. However, if the US economy/equity markets dive and enough blame can be put on Trump he can lose.

China is always fretful of Hong Kong and of Taiwan. The party maintains a tight grip on a lot of China but the leaders are far from complacent about what civil unrest might do to them and worse their business image as a progressive country to deal with.

Regards,

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257857

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 14th, 2019, 7:49 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy
I guess my key point when I spoke of the GLF and the Cultural Revolution is that these people will know suffering and hardship like no American has ever encountered. They can stick out the long game much better and the domestic population won't cry and pressure their "representatives". Certainly nothing like Midwestern Farmers, IMO.

Regards Trump, who knows right now? He's got so many troubles at home, I'm surprised he even knows one day to the next. I think he's slowly unravelling and I suspect the House and the Senate will impeach him. The Senate will probably be more than happy, when push comes to shove, to ditch him and throw Mike Pence in there instead. But that's more of a political comment, than a macro economic one.

Matt



I lived in the US for several years. There are lots of very poor folk there who have real hard lives, not cultural revolution hard, but hard enough compared to poor in the UK.

The Great Leap Forward was the killer. Tens of millions died of starvation, no one in West has experienced this for a few 100 years. Do you know what the GLF was? Basically Mao thought he could get China up to speed with the US and the rest, if the population just showed willing and joined in collective crackpot scheme. But the CP mobilised all the massive country to join in. They did absolutely mad things on a huge scale, they scared away song birds because they thought birds were eating the grain, but the demise of the birds f**ked the food chain, and gazillions of far worst pests prevailed and ruined the harvests. They melted down everything they could find to make steel in the vain hope they could export it. But the steel quality was utter shite...

Those are just a couple of examples. Whatever the Yanks can do the Chinese the Chinese can take 100x worse.

For now the US markets are too robust for me to take impeachment of Trump as even a very remote possibility.

We'll have to differ on this one, my friend. I think he's toast personally, and well the markets....

Apologies if you've seen these already, they are a couple of weeks old, first Scaramuccis take on this one and secondly a comparision with RN and WC.

later Matt

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Re: Is the US-China Tariff war winding down?

#257883

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 9:17 pm

TheMotentlorcycleBoy
The Great Leap Forward was the killer. Tens of millions died of starvation, no one in West has experienced this for a few 100 years. Do you know what the GLF was? Basically Mao thought he could get China up to speed with the US and the rest, if the population just showed willing and joined in collective crackpot scheme. But the CP mobilised all the massive country to join in. They did absolutely mad things on a huge scale, they scared away song birds because they thought birds were eating the grain, but the demise of the birds f**ked the food chain, and gazillions of far worst pests prevailed and ruined the harvests. They melted down everything they could find to make steel in the vain hope they could export it. But the steel quality was utter shite...

Those are just a couple of examples. Whatever the Yanks can do the Chinese the Chinese can take 100x worse.


Yes, the cultural revolution was terrible on a similar scale of brutality to what the US did to their indigenous people. The Cherokee trail of tears, the near genocide in the west. Then what was done as Sherman marched through Georgia, burning and destroying everything the South held to be of value. Later you could see what the US white folk did to the black folk even long after Lincoln freed the slaves. You could of course go back to England's history of what Henry 8th did to the monasteries and anyone else who go in his way, or to the atrocities that came after the invasion in 1066, ... The history of the world and human interactions is brutal, few folk realise how lucky we now are in the UK. Even now if you go round some of the dirt poor parts of the South of the US you see a serious level of poverty set in stark comparison to the wealth of the major northern connurbations.

You may of course be right re Trump, Markets etc. If you are the effects on the UK with so much UK investment in the US would not be nice, but we shall see.

Regards,


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