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The reformed broker

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odysseus2000
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The reformed broker

#54376

Postby odysseus2000 » May 17th, 2017, 12:49 am

Kind of interesting & amusing, yet somehow a little disturbing too, odd cuss word:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/05/16 ... um=twitter

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: The reformed broker

#89173

Postby odysseus2000 » October 18th, 2017, 8:14 pm

Very interesting article on bitcoin:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/18 ... onderland/

Regards,

mosschops
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Re: The reformed broker

#89260

Postby mosschops » October 19th, 2017, 10:30 am

His recent one on owning the robots and Kevin Muirs response on Macro Tourist were both great I thought.

odysseus2000
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Re: The reformed broker

#89351

Postby odysseus2000 » October 19th, 2017, 5:28 pm

Mosschops

His recent one on owning the robots and Kevin Muirs response on Macro Tourist were both great I thought.


Do you have links?

Regards,

Itsallaguess
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Re: The reformed broker

#89367

Postby Itsallaguess » October 19th, 2017, 7:55 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
mosschops wrote:
His recent one on owning the robots and Kevin Muirs response on Macro Tourist were both great I thought.


Do you have links?


Here's a link to the first one mentioned -

Just own the damn robots...

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/16 ... mn-robots/

An interesting read, and so it goes...

Itsallaguess

TUK020
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Re: The reformed broker

#89373

Postby TUK020 » October 19th, 2017, 8:14 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Very interesting article on bitcoin:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/18 ... onderland/

Regards,

Crypto tulip bulbs.
Difficult to identify where on the hype curve we are

Itsallaguess
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Re: The reformed broker

#89377

Postby Itsallaguess » October 19th, 2017, 8:24 pm

TUK020 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Very interesting article on bitcoin:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/18 ... onderland/


Crypto tulip bulbs.

Difficult to identify where on the hype curve we are


Absolutely.

This section at the end just about summed it all up -

I’ll let Leigh Drogen have the last word here: “If you read the book Sapiens, then you recognize this as a religion – a story we all tell each other and agree upon. Religion is the adoption curve we ought to be thinking about. It’s almost perfect – as soon as someone gets in, they tell everyone and go out evangelizing. Then their friends get in and they start evangelizing.”

He’s right. Bitcoin is like crossfit – the moment you get in you can’t shut your f***ing mouth about it. I guess I’m guilty of this as well. I just wrote 2500 words about it....


Cheers,

Itsallaguess

GoSeigen
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Re: The reformed broker

#89384

Postby GoSeigen » October 19th, 2017, 8:52 pm

TUK020 wrote:Crypto tulip bulbs.
Difficult to identify where on the hype curve we are


Bitcoin was the big story in Soweto when I visited this summer.

Well, I've a feeling I'm gonna look really stoopid. I'm steadily buying boring old bank stocks and ignoring coin mania, just like I ignored loom bands and yugio cards a couple of years back.


GS

odysseus2000
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Re: The reformed broker

#89391

Postby odysseus2000 » October 19th, 2017, 9:17 pm

GS
Well, I've a feeling I'm gonna look really stoopid. I'm steadily buying boring old bank stocks and ignoring coin mania, just like I ignored loom bands and yugio cards a couple of years back.


Yes, but will the banks ignore it?

As there ever been a serious financial crisis that the banks haven't been burned in?

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mosschops
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Re: The reformed broker

#89392

Postby mosschops » October 19th, 2017, 9:20 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
mosschops wrote:
His recent one on owning the robots and Kevin Muirs response on Macro Tourist were both great I thought.


Do you have links?


Here's a link to the first one mentioned -

Just own the damn robots...

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/16 ... mn-robots/

An interesting read, and so it goes...

Itsallaguess


This is the other one: https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2017/10/17/redux/

odysseus2000
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Re: The reformed broker

#96722

Postby odysseus2000 » November 18th, 2017, 1:06 pm

https://twitter.com/reformedbroker/stat ... 1691311105

Think his appraisal has some merit.

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mosschops
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Re: The reformed broker

#98091

Postby mosschops » November 23rd, 2017, 10:46 am

Thought his post today was very good: http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/11/22 ... ngerously/

odysseus2000
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Re: The reformed broker

#98909

Postby odysseus2000 » November 26th, 2017, 10:17 am

Hi mosschops,

Thanks for high lighting the superb post from The Reformed Broker.

One aspect that he doesn't touch upon is the historical precedents for the current market. Imho Trump, for many of the reasons noted by Josh has, like Reagan, unleashed this huge wave of growth that like 1999 will make folk who ride it well rich & then likely lead to a set of serious unhappiness for the vast majority of folk at some ill defined future date.

Imho the vast majority of the population will know there is money to be made, will eventually get sucked in & then bad things will happen, very like the crash in 2000. The folk skilled in this business including Josh, will make a fortune riding the trend upwards, will get off near the top & will make a fortune riding things downwards.

In practice there will be some range of possibilities from a gradual ramp down that doesn't hurt too many to a violent crash that hurts a lot. This analysis though is particularly useless, because I have no idea what will happen, nor when, nor even if my general thesis will be right.

So as far as I am concerned I am interested in trying to do as good as possible going up & if things look like a top being sensible getting out, always trying to net money as I go & to repeat if there is a down side. I have no idea if I will do well, nor am I buoyed by past success or weighed down by past failures, just that this is my game plan that is set by what I see now & hopefully sensibly guided by past observation without the emotional weight of past success or past failure.

I imagine that is what most folk in the markets, including Josh, are about in various ways that extend from the cons one sees in e.g. Small cap resource stocks through to the Herculean & remarkable wonders of social communication & human interaction of Facebook et al, and what now looks like the next two phases: Artificial Intelligence & Robotics. If I am anywhere near reading these things right the potential for world changing events & great wealth creation is now greater than it has ever been. All of this being powered by renewable energy & lithium ion technology, like coal did for steam, oil did for cars & jets, but this is combined with unprecedented dangers that could easily lead to very bad things happening, some signs of which are already flashing red with the klaxon sounding just a little.

Regards,


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