Re: Greenspan: Bonds Are in a Bubble, Stagflation Is Coming
Posted: August 9th, 2017, 12:22 am
UK infrastructure is an interesting subject.
On one hand I can empathise with FredBloggs, but on the other hand I can’t. If the UK was grid locked and headed to third world status then one would expect to see symptoms like long delays for mail, parcels, huge queues at airports, dropping off in overseas visitors, steep falls in London property, failing private Schools as foreign parents declined to send their children here for their education.
In reality I have never known packages come so quickly. Often things I buy are here the next day or the day after. The vans are always full of stuff and the drivers say they are super busy. There are loads of foreign tourists all over the place, likely enjoying the weak pound. Heathrow coped with the massive olympic traffic a few years back. London housing is still booming as are private Schools. Folk are living longer and prosperity is the highest it has ever been.
Meanwhile many countries have spent a lot of money (this means raising a lot of taxes) building new airports, new railways and nuclear power plants and the folk who look at these things feel this is evidence of their emergence as first world nations. The problem with a lot of this is that what is being built is rapidly going out of date.
The UK lead the world in nuclear power and then folk looked at the cost of the power and we mostly gave it up. Good move as the coming revolutions in renewables, smart grid and batteries are much more cost effective and much more secure. A nuclear reactor can be a blessing but it is also a magnet for terrorists and hostile nations and the clean up of the spent fuel is a very expensive business.
The UK lead the world in railways but that began over 180 years ago, many things have changed. Electrification via overhead lines is out of date due to improving batteries, autonomous road transport, drones and likely soon hyper-loop technology.
Airports are now likely as big as they are ever going to get and with electric propulsion for at least short haul with vertical take-off the needs for lots of runways decreases and with hyperloop technology one may see many declines in air transport as hyper loops will be more direct and faster.
The pitfalls of investing in old technology are that it will be replaced by new stuff and the art is more about keeping old infrastructure going for as long as possible and then upgrading when something better, faster and cheaper comes along. The UK is exceptionally well positioned for that.
Regards,
On one hand I can empathise with FredBloggs, but on the other hand I can’t. If the UK was grid locked and headed to third world status then one would expect to see symptoms like long delays for mail, parcels, huge queues at airports, dropping off in overseas visitors, steep falls in London property, failing private Schools as foreign parents declined to send their children here for their education.
In reality I have never known packages come so quickly. Often things I buy are here the next day or the day after. The vans are always full of stuff and the drivers say they are super busy. There are loads of foreign tourists all over the place, likely enjoying the weak pound. Heathrow coped with the massive olympic traffic a few years back. London housing is still booming as are private Schools. Folk are living longer and prosperity is the highest it has ever been.
Meanwhile many countries have spent a lot of money (this means raising a lot of taxes) building new airports, new railways and nuclear power plants and the folk who look at these things feel this is evidence of their emergence as first world nations. The problem with a lot of this is that what is being built is rapidly going out of date.
The UK lead the world in nuclear power and then folk looked at the cost of the power and we mostly gave it up. Good move as the coming revolutions in renewables, smart grid and batteries are much more cost effective and much more secure. A nuclear reactor can be a blessing but it is also a magnet for terrorists and hostile nations and the clean up of the spent fuel is a very expensive business.
The UK lead the world in railways but that began over 180 years ago, many things have changed. Electrification via overhead lines is out of date due to improving batteries, autonomous road transport, drones and likely soon hyper-loop technology.
Airports are now likely as big as they are ever going to get and with electric propulsion for at least short haul with vertical take-off the needs for lots of runways decreases and with hyperloop technology one may see many declines in air transport as hyper loops will be more direct and faster.
The pitfalls of investing in old technology are that it will be replaced by new stuff and the art is more about keeping old infrastructure going for as long as possible and then upgrading when something better, faster and cheaper comes along. The UK is exceptionally well positioned for that.
Regards,