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Apple endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Apple endeavours

#80950

Postby odysseus2000 » September 13th, 2017, 9:20 pm

Yesterday I watched the whole launch show for the iPhone model 8,8+ and model 10, watch 3 and 4k Apple TV

I was very taken by the technology, and lusted after the new iPhone and especially the watch although I am too cheap to buy any of it, so it was like being chained to the mast, while the rowers, with wax sealed ears, went past the sirens.

Today I have read many articles on the iPhone, watch. For the most part the technical ones are quite good and tie in with my recollections, but the financial ones were mostly indicative that the writers didn't watch the show and if they did the content was way over their heads. Comments from these folk included:

Chinese phones are better, much cheaper, although when they quoted $500, for a model 10 equivalent I didn't feel that was cheap. There is nothing special in these phones, everything already exists in Samsung and other models. This guy neither watched the show or has a clue about phone technology. Face recognition is useless as folk steal phones that are already switched on and so defeat face recognition -- I guffawed at that. On and on it went, over and over folk writing rubbish indicating they hadn't a clue and many arguing that one should buy puts or short the stock because the technology is lame.

All in all it is disappointing to read such financial rubbish and to be confident that folk will actually believe it and act on it. Whether the folk are baiting in shorts or just as thick as they write I don't know, but I suspect its the latter.

Me. I have been accumulating Apple on weakness and if it goes down more I will buy more. Christmas is coming, lots of iPhones will have been killed by the US hurricanes and the health benefits, potential life saving, for the heart monitor on the watch 3 are in my opinion something special that many will want. I believe these products along with the suite of MacBooks, iPads etc are extremely likely products to significantly run the stock up in the by and by. The valuation is low, the dividend good and there is a buy back. I can't really find anything not to like. If the markets gives me an opportunity to buy lower I will be happy to take it. Of course I could be wrong, we will see and no doubt if I am someone will quote this post, which is all well and good. The financial commentators will not be so easy to point to as having got it wrong.

Regards,

woolly
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Re: Apple endeavours

#81042

Postby woolly » September 14th, 2017, 10:53 am

On and on it went, over and over folk writing rubbish...


And right on cue the very next comment happily obliges!
All their hardware is now just commodity stuff repackaged with the brand.

That couldn't be more wrong! As a matter of strategic direction Apple is increasingly bringing key component design in-house to prevent exactly the scenario you accuse them of, which actually applies to their competitors more than to Apple themselves. They have if anything increased their moat - on top of a commanding lead in mobile processor design this latest product launch revealed a product-ready GPU of their own (Imagination were given plenty of warning...).
Not only that, Apple also invests heavily manufacturing tech, and spends an inordinate amount to train and tool their manufacturing partners in cutting edge production tech developed in-house. They use their scale for strategic effect (notably pre-paying for the entire world supply of memory for the flash-based iPod, for instance) although they are now one of the few companies to suffer from diseconomies of scale - the new iPhone X will not be selling 170 million as there simply isn't the manufacturing capability on the planet for that many high-end OLED displays.

I have been an Apple watcher and fan for years, ever since I worked in a newspaper office with command-line DOS PCs running Word Perfect and a designer let me have a go on a Mac - suddenly here was a computer that anyone could use, that made complex processing tasks logical and intuitive. AAPL has been my best investment by far, as I was lucky enough to buy a chunk during the iPod years, once more after the iPhone announcement, and again when the stock hit a bottom in 2008. I still hold, btw, and that investment currently yields even after tax a very welcome 25%, which with nice circularity funds my Apple habit with plenty to spare. Only downside is the considerable CGT bill should I ever sell.

It astonishes me time and again how people don't just not get Apple but descend into a kind of irrational envy-driven rage at the very thought of the company - how strange that an electronics manufacturer should elicit such reactions from people who profess no interest!

Apple is defining what it is to be a 21st-century global business, and we should be thankful for it - without them we would still be cursing our push-button, menu driven phones, still suffering command-line computers, making do with gadgets merely designed to a budget and to make manufacturing easier and cheaper. Sure, they make mistakes, but they learn fast from them, and adapt constantly and are happy to tread where no human endeavour has yet been as if it were their birthright - AND commit fully to ethical and environmental standards that naysayers continue to deem impossible to uphold without losing competitiveness. Proof, if any is needed, that they are getting it right, is the way the whole industry has copied them time after time, and how well designed, and beautiful, well-engineered products are now what consumers expect and demand.

I'd urge you to watch the first ten minutes of the keynote https://www.apple.com/apple-events/september-2017/, which, as well as being a beautiful introduction to their astonishing new HQ and moving tribute to Steve Jobs, encapsulates just what Apple is.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#81047

Postby odysseus2000 » September 14th, 2017, 11:34 am

wolly
Apple is defining what it is to be a 21st-century global business, and we should be thankful for it - without them we would still be cursing our push-button, menu driven phones, still suffering command-line computers, making do with gadgets merely designed to a budget and to make manufacturing easier and cheaper. Sure, they make mistakes, but they learn fast from them, and adapt constantly and are happy to tread where no human endeavour has yet been as if it were their birthright - AND commit fully to ethical and environmental standards that naysayers continue to deem impossible to uphold without losing competitiveness. Proof, if any is needed, that they are getting it right, is the way the whole industry has copied them time after time, and how well designed, and beautiful, well-engineered products are now what consumers expect and demand.

I'd urge you to watch the first ten minutes of the keynote https://www.apple.com/apple-events/september-2017/, which, as well as being a beautiful introduction to their astonishing new HQ and moving tribute to Steve Jobs, encapsulates just what Apple is.


Absolutely!

Very few folk bother to think about why folk like Apple or about why they are successful.

They have re-invented manufacturing and retail by making things that the entire population can use easily and which folk not only want, but need if they are to be competitive in all aspects of business and in many cases to get the most out of life.

On top of the hardware business there is the web services business which is growing like crazy as its just so easy, convenient and useful when all ones files are easily got at on ones portfolio of Apple devices. Now they have branched into health care which Cook acknowledge in a Fortune interview was a business opportunity and I believe a huge one. If you can have something on your wrist that can save your life, look attractive and be useful why would someone with disposable income not think it was a good thing to have? It is of course an old idea, predicted by Arthur C Clarke and now it has become reality. It feels 21st century not like many other products that feel 20th century.

The big hook with Apple products is that if you get one you tend to like it so much that you get something else and soon a sceptic (as I was before I got an iPad ) becomes a believer. Now I don't even look at competitors and although I don't like spending money when I have had to I have bought Apple and so far I have not regretted any of my three Apple products.

Investors who fail to study Apple and who don't use their products are missing out on a lot of reasons why the company has been so successful. Of course many of the Apple ideas are being incorporated into other products lines, most notably in my opinion by Tesla who have put the consumer first, making cars which have the best crash resistant and occupants protection ever, along with over the air updates and fast formula 1 service. Tesla like Apple are building a reservoir of satisfied customers, something that no other auto manufacturer have managed to do, although Rolls Royce at least at one time had a similar philosophy. Causing Henry Ford to be flabbergasted when a Rolls Royce mechanic turned up to service his Rolls. He by contrasted never wanted to see a car again when it was sold, although he did buy back some of his earlier engines for his museums he was not about customer retention and satisfaction. Musk with PayPal and Tesla has adopted Steve Jobs, Apple like ideas. It will be interesting to see if he has similar success.

Regards,

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Re: Apple endeavours

#81061

Postby woolly » September 14th, 2017, 12:35 pm

Ody, you clearly "get" Apple - they operate on a different level to virtually any other company and see things in a non-linear, holistic way that is hard to emulate unless you and your employees are already operating at that level.

They are as defined by what they say "No" to as much as if not more than by what they pursue to product stage. The rumoured Apple Car is but one example - plenty of spin-off tech from that experiment (ARKit for example) to recoup costs and more, and sadly no car, but from an investor's perspective just as well. Given the upgrade cycle on their existing products is already much longer than the industry average (thanks to great engineering and build quality) any car would take ages to recoup the unimaginable investment needed to get to Apple-type volume from scratch.

I also have a feeling that they dropped it because they foresaw that widespread autonomous electric car adoption would have so many knock-on effects and radically alter all manner of connected businesses (car ownership, parking, power storage and generation, insurance, town planning, transport infrastructure, general work habits) to the extent that worldwide government cooperation would be essential. And governments will be less than willing to cooperate unless Apple gives them (and any other nefarious actor that obtains access) a deliberately insecure OS to enable each and every device we own to become a despot's and spy's wet dream - GPS, audio and camera feeds in everyone's home and pocket, 24-hr surveillance of any- and everyone - can you imagine if anyone tried to get elected on that platform? But this is straying onto another topic that can get people all worked up so I'll leave it at that. Suffice it to say governments are the last people to understand the true ramifications of anything :-)

I quite agree with your views on Telsa - let's hope it is indeed worthy of being another Apple, and it's not just a one-man show. I have a feeling that Apple has decided to sit back and let Telsa (and others) take the risks (and rewards) of being on the bleeding edge for the autonomous car revolution, and is waiting for the picture to clear a little, but when/if they move they will do so with characteristic decisiveness and commitment.

I'd love to own both a Tesla and TSLA but can't justify it at the moment :-(

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Re: Apple endeavours

#88108

Postby odysseus2000 » October 13th, 2017, 10:35 pm

Apple watch saves a life:

https://twitter.com/_jamestgreen/status ... 2741458944

Feel that the commercial opportunity for Apple watch in the medical environment, although currently only a small part of Apple's revenue, may get a lot bigger. There are not so many products that can save your life in the way this one did and that capability will likely increase exponentially going forwards.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#92768

Postby odysseus2000 » November 2nd, 2017, 10:06 pm

Interesting that the latest Apple conference, recording available shortly, was full of extraordinary growth across all sectors & products.

The naysayers who wrote off Apple after the latest iPhone product launch with all kinds of bad comments regarding the technology etc, did me a great favour dragging the price down so that I could buy more for less.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#92790

Postby Clitheroekid » November 3rd, 2017, 1:19 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The naysayers who wrote off Apple after the latest iPhone product launch with all kinds of bad comments regarding the technology etc, did me a great favour dragging the price down so that I could buy more for less.

Hear, hear! I was due a new phone this year, so after some initial hesitation at the price I decided to order an iPhone X. Remarkably, the recent increase in the AAPL share price has more than paid for the phone.

So basically, thanks to having invested in AAPL not that long ago I have received a free iPhone X. This is a far better `dividend' than any other stock I hold :D

Of course this is only a notional `freebie', as I haven't actually sold my AAPL shares, and don't intend to. I think they have achieved - or are at least on the verge of achieving - something quite remarkable in differentiating themselves from their competitors to such an extent that they are now perceived as a luxury brand rather than just another player in a highly competitive field.

This is not to imply that Apple products are overpriced rubbish. I've owned them for over 10 years and I've also owned those manufactured by competitors. Although the Apple products are not necessarily the best in technical terms (though they are pretty much up with the best) I like them simply because of the way they look and feel and operate. There's a very difficult to define aura of quality about them, which to my mind does justify a premium price.

I believe that this means that their products will be bought even if in strictly qualitative terms they are no better than those of their competitors. It also means that they may have entered that much sought after `Rolls Royce' market, where a higher price may actually make the products more desirable simply because they appeal to people who aren't that bothered about technical superiority but simply want to be associated with the brand, and who are not price sensitive.

I believe this highly desirable (and highly profitable) quality has not yet been recognised in the AAPL share price, so I'll be holding on to my shares for the time being.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#92821

Postby PeterGray » November 3rd, 2017, 9:21 am

I think they have achieved - or are at least on the verge of achieving - something quite remarkable in differentiating themselves from their competitors to such an extent that they are now perceived as a luxury brand rather than just another player in a highly competitive field.

Interesting view. The comment I was reading this morning (which I am now unable to find again!) took exactly the opposite view to explain recent success!

It took the view that Cooks model of keeping older, cheaper models available in a way Jobs would not, was the key to recent success - pointing to the massive growth in the Indian market - now one of their most important, but where the iPhone SE is the big seller (and much cheaper than later phones).

In that sense they appear to be moving from being a luxury brand - where I'd argue they have been for some time, towards a more mass market approach.

Peter

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Re: Apple endeavours

#93179

Postby odysseus2000 » November 4th, 2017, 10:12 pm

Does anyone ever bother to listen to the earnings calls?

Model SE is made in India, aimed at Indian market, almost certainly about to move out of the upgrade cycle along with the model 6. Meanwhile Apple are trying to build a stores market in India like they have in China.

Models below 6 no longer get upgrades. They still work, but don't have the latest iOS operating system, no augmented reality etc.

Model x is set in the context that many users buy on credit at $30 per month & trade in their previous generation phone for $300, so that the $1000 price is not as much of a barrier as if it was a straight $1000 pay.

Apple are still luxury orientated, best phone on the planet marketing etc.

Meanwhile, the other aspects to their business are growing. Watch demand strong, currently still not enough to impact the bottom line, but growing fast.

Apple web service growing strongly, now would be a Fortune 100 company in its own right.

Ton more stuff in the earnings call which is free & reached from the Apple site.

Meanwhile there is a nice dividend & it the company which is well within sight of a $1 trillion valuation is priced very cheaply.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#115043

Postby odysseus2000 » February 1st, 2018, 7:47 pm

Kind of interesting earnings due after the close.

The share price has been marked down on earnings cut estimates, many based on reduced iPhone x numbers that have been cut from 40 to 20 million by various brokers & others saying they have cut back on component orders.

Meanwhile there is the potential of Apple bringing a lot of money back from over seas with the new tax regime with currently no specified use, leading to suggestions that there could be a special dividend or much larger buy backs.

Hard call as the leakers were very good on the iPhone x with almost everything known about it before the official launch, so perhaps the leakers have the iPhone 10 numbers & component slow down right too.

If the earnings are better than consensus, if X is selling better, if there is a special dividend or bigger buy back, this share could fly. If none of these perhaps a lot of the sell off has already happened.

I like the risk/reward here & it is now my biggest position after Twitter.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#115096

Postby odysseus2000 » February 1st, 2018, 11:12 pm

Nice results & conference call with shares up about 3.5%.

Although they did not break out iPhone x numbers other than saying it was their best selling phone, the overall growth in active iPhone users was super impressive.

Assuming no big market drop there is a chance of further upside from here imho.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#115183

Postby woolly » February 2nd, 2018, 11:07 am

Enviable results by any normal metrics, but wait for Wall St to put on its 'disappointed' face...

Bear in mind that iPhone X wasn't even available until 1 month into the quarter, and that the quarter this year was 13 weeks, not 14 like last year - all the FUD about the iPhone X tanking was clearly rubbish. In fact it appears to have outsold the iPhone 8.

In a maturing and apparently flooded market, they have pulled off the feat of actually increasing the average iPhone selling price from $694 to $796 - incredible.

Also of note are the plans to reduce the cash hoard to a 'neutral' level - after debt is factored in Apple still has $165 billion on hand to give back to shareholders in one way or another.

But Wall St will only choose to see declining unit shipments YoY, lower guidance for Q2, take your pick - the phrase 'pearls before swine' comes to mind...

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Re: Apple endeavours

#115317

Postby odysseus2000 » February 2nd, 2018, 8:22 pm

Oh well, made a mess of that trade.

Free fire zone for shorts now, no news for 3 months, dividend record date 12th I believe, so longs like me will suffer, perhaps till next earnings.

Meanwhile I have shorted the spike in the vix & will keep shorting if it keeps goIng up.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#121970

Postby Clitheroekid » March 3rd, 2018, 9:07 pm

Interesting to see that Apple is now Warren Buffett's second biggest holding at an eye-watering $28.2bn.

But it's only just behind his biggest holding, Wells Fargo, at $29.3bn, and I would be prepared to bet a substantial sum that within a few months - perhaps even less than that - Apple will become his biggest holding.

http://fortune.com/2018/02/26/warren-bu ... uys-apple/

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Re: Apple endeavours

#122754

Postby odysseus2000 » March 6th, 2018, 10:43 pm

Kind of agree that Apple still looks good here but it has moved a long way and recovered much faster than I expected.

WFC and the banks are difficult to call with the new Fed chairperson (Powell). If he starts going on about higher interest rates WFC could run, especially as its been weak, down from circa $66 to $57 so far in 2018.

If rates do go up or the mood music for rises gets stronger, the financials could run.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#131199

Postby odysseus2000 » April 10th, 2018, 2:19 pm

Apple now runs on 100% renewable energy:

https://amp.fastcompany.com/40554151/ho ... glH7XTFy42

This has huge implications for UK generators & National Grid.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#138707

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2018, 8:21 am

New carbon free method of producing aluminium:

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/05/ ... ng-method/

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Re: Apple endeavours

#156472

Postby Clitheroekid » August 1st, 2018, 12:11 am

Another stonking set of results - https://seekingalpha.com/article/419275 ... app=1&dr=1

I'm expecting the price to reflect these results when the market opens tomorrow, and I'm hoping we will very soon be looking at the first trillion dollar company.

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Re: Apple endeavours

#156603

Postby Clitheroekid » August 1st, 2018, 4:51 pm

So it finally broke the $200 mark for the first time earlier today - https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL - three cheers! :D

The price at which it becomes a $1,000,000,000,000 company is presently just $203.45, but I understand they're likely to announce a large buyback on Wednesday, which will shift the goalposts.

But I've no doubt it will happen in the not too distant future - I just hope it gets there before Amazon!

I wonder how Ronald Wayne will feel at having sold his 10% for $800? It makes the decision of Decca to turn down The Beatles look like a minor error of judgment! Though to his great credit he always seemed to take a very philosophical view of it.

https://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/ass ... 80x439.jpg

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Re: Apple endeavours

#156620

Postby Itsallaguess » August 1st, 2018, 6:26 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:
So it finally broke the $200 mark for the first time earlier today - https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL


I was listening to Radio 5 (Wake up to money) this morning, where they were discussing Apple being worth 6% of US GDP, and that was before the market opened today.

They also discussed the fact that if we then also included Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, and Facebook, the market caps all added up to around 20% of US GDP...

Does that feel justified for these sorts of tech-companies? Those US GDP comparisons are huge, aren't they?

It feels to me that Apple, Amazon and Alphabet might be in a much stronger position to justify their high ratings, but things like Netflix and Facebook feel a great deal more 'fleeting' to me, but I'll admit to staying largely away from this area of the direct markets, and only have exposure to it in a wider sense through a few IT's..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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