The Lemon Fool

Reading lots about Block Chain and how opinion on this is divided into camps of either a) It’s the future or b) Dot-com sequel 20 years later. If one believes option b, this opens the question of how to either borrow in Bitcoin to invest in Fiat Currency denominated assets or just plain “short” Bitcoin. Anybody have ideas?

YeeWo wrote:Reading lots about Block Chain and how opinion on this is divided into camps of either a) It’s the future or b) Dot-com sequel 20 years later. If one believes option b, this opens the question of how to either borrow in Bitcoin to invest in Fiat Currency denominated assets or just plain “short” Bitcoin. Anybody have ideas?

You've missed a step in the above commentary. It may be the future but overpriced. It might be dotcom junk mk II but underpriced. The price is the key thing and at the moment no-one has a clue where the price should be. Up 25% one day, down 20% the next. 3 bagger one year, down 80% the next.

No-one knows the value mainly because is has no value but everyone involved believes it does (IMO). You really want to fight that?


I'm not going anywhere near. There's heaps of other sensible investments where you can get a nice steady return -- why waste time on this stupidly volatile crock?


GS

YeeWo wrote:If one believes option b, this opens the question of how to either borrow in Bitcoin to invest in Fiat Currency denominated assets or just plain “short” Bitcoin. Anybody have ideas?

If you want to go short, try one of the spread-betting companies. A quick bit of web searching shows that a number of them now seem to be offering Bitcoin as a market.

I am inclined to stick with Tulips. Prettier.

As I understand, the energy consumption required to mine and transact Bitcoins is currently increasing exponentially. I've read somewhere recently "as much as Ireland", and the one chart I've seen (https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/875029997647536128) recalls the "ultraviolet catastrophe" of my university classical physics (subsequently corrected by quantum theory). That cannot last.

And at its height, tulip mania became a huge futures market - very few bulbs actually changed hands - so it's quite droll to see that CBOE, CME have just this week announced listings of Bitcoing futures contracts!

When Bitcoin trade begins to seize up, just like the tulips did, expect the crash to be spectacular! I'd love to short spreadbet Bitcoin, but any trade would be put on out of speculation and greed on my part, rather than measured return. So not for me, but it will be fun to watch ...

moorfield wrote:As I understand, the energy consumption required to mine and transact Bitcoins is currently increasing exponentially. I've read somewhere recently "as much as Ireland", and the one chart I've seen (https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/875029997647536128) recalls the "ultraviolet catastrophe" of my university classical physics (subsequently corrected by quantum theory). That cannot last.

I think I made the 'Ireland' reference in one of my posts. Agreed, the Proof of Work system that Bitcoin runs on is unsustainable long-term. That's why I'm bullish on Blockchain but bearish on Bitcoin. You have to remember that Bitcoin is almost 10 years old now, it's outdated tech, but the whole notion of 'immutability' and a lack of ability to change/improve the system is also one of its selling points.

I'm much more interested in Proof of Stake cryptos, they are the future. Minimal energy required but the same positive attributes that PoW mining provides.

Bitcoin goes mainstream. Facebook, Daily Mail and now Monevator.

http://monevator.com/bitcoin-bubble/

Just read this, and I think it excellently expresses a lot of my own thoughts on Blockchain, Bitcoin et al:

https://decentralize.today/dont-fall-fo ... 42a59fce0a

mrbrightside wrote:Bitcoin goes mainstream. Facebook, Daily Mail and now Monevator.

http://monevator.com/bitcoin-bubble/

Charles Mackay's Madness of Crowds ..?

Raptor wrote:

Moderator Message:
There are 2 threads on bitcoin on different boards. To keep it simple will move this thread from Investment Strategies. Raptor.

[Sorry, OT]
Raptor,

Thanks for your effort keeping things tidy. Just an observation on this intervention.

Different boards exist so that different aspects of a topic may be discussed without going too far on a tangent from board readers' normal interests.

It matters not that two threads with a similar topic exist on different boards: the discussion will be limited and guided by the topic of the board. Just randomly moving established threads from one board to another means that an entire audience for the thread is removed at a stroke and replaced with a different set of contributors with a different focus. I really don't see the point in this unless the moved thread is clearly started in the wrong board. If you wanted readers of both boards to see the thread a link to the original placed on the second board would work well.

In the case of this post, the OP probably wanted to access the expertise of Fools experienced in shorting strategies or derivatives specifically, hence the thread title. Now the thread has been moved to Other Investing" where readers are more focused on esoteric or newby subjects, thereby perhaps thwarting the OP's aim.

In general it's inevitable and acceptable that popular subjects will appear on multiple boards. As I have said before, the situation is different if an identical topic is opened simultaneously by the same poster on multiple boards. That would clearly be a cross post and should be fixed to avoid confusing duplication.

GS

will89 wrote:Just read this, and I think it excellently expresses a lot of my own thoughts on Blockchain, Bitcoin et al:

https://decentralize.today/dont-fall-fo ... 42a59fce0a

You said they are not currencies. This article calls them currencies throughout.

Actually, you argued that the case is settled that they are NOT currencies.

So which is it?


GS

The most common definition of a currency I can find is 'a medium of exchange' which is what bitcoin is intended to be.

You can have state-backed currencies, commodity-based currencies and, now, crypto-currencies but they all share the narrow definition of 'medium of exchange'.

General acceptance as a medium of exchange is important in a broader definition of currency and this is where it could be argued that bitcoin falls down. But a weak argument IMO.

BofE

Just sold some Bitcoin at over $12000. There's quite a difference in prices on the various exchanges.


Surerera