The Lemon Fool

Well, Jamie Dimon has changed his tune somewhat (Bargaining stage). I am expecting nice NAV numbers for December any day now, January seems like a small negative so far and may well give away some unrealised PnL - nevertheless I need a breather until next tax year - I have never paid CGT before until now as I was busy exploiting my non-dom status being an European citizen...LOL.

JMN2 wrote:Well, Jamie Dimon has changed his tune somewhat (Bargaining stage). I am expecting nice NAV numbers for December any day now, January seems like a small negative so far and may well give away some unrealised PnL - nevertheless I need a breather until next tax year - I have never paid CGT before until now as I was busy exploiting my non-dom status being an European citizen...LOL.

Bitcoin at 13k as a floor as I was "predicting" did not hold, January NAV below 14k will see a loss. December NAV, which does not matter anymore, showed +48%, life to date NAV +2600%, cost basis carried forward around £4k so the unrealised pnl is pretty punchy...well, in for a penny in for a pound and all that.

I think the bubble has well and truly popped. It was a wonderful ride, Bitcoin has very little intrinsic value, maybe a bit of use for criminal activity but not much else. Certainly the most exciting bubble I've ever ridden, it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get back below $1,000.


Surerera

Surerera wrote:I think the bubble has well and truly popped. It was a wonderful ride, Bitcoin has very little intrinsic value, maybe a bit of use for criminal activity but not much else. Certainly the most exciting bubble I've ever ridden, it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get back below $1,000.

Surerera

Almost one third of the way to saving my £1000 charity bet. Need this to fall to £2500 or so but would not rule out a final hurrah before the final denoument.


GS

Behold the drying up of "greater fools": all who could be hooked had been hooked.

No further "supply", so sputter, stall, ...

The thing is, many of the (handful of!) smarter folks who offloaded into the "ski jump", "roundaphobia" test of 20k will still in their hearts be believers... and won't be able to help themselves from piling back in at "bargain" prices. This should halt and reverse some waterfall declines, causing some sharp (but thin volume) ramps. Offering a veritable lifeline for the slow of observation (you know who you are!) in dire need of a Groundhog Day or thereabouts to salvage something of their "self-regard".

Bottom line: under $100 within two years (likely sooner & likely lower).

RececaDron wrote:Behold the drying up of "greater fools": all who could be hooked had been hooked.

No further "supply", so sputter, stall, ...

The thing is, many of the (handful of!) smarter folks who offloaded into the "ski jump", "roundaphobia" test of 20k will still in their hearts be believers... and won't be able to help themselves from piling back in at "bargain" prices. This should halt and reverse some waterfall declines, causing some sharp (but thin volume) ramps. Offering a veritable lifeline for the slow of observation (you know who you are!) in dire need of a Groundhog Day or thereabouts to salvage something of their "self-regard".

Bottom line: under $100 within two years (likely sooner & likely lower).

I was a believer at $10 and loaded up selling my last 2 BTC at about $17,000, but I can assure you I just stayed for the ride and won't be touching them again, it was a classic beautiful bubble and nothing more.

Surerera

Nicely done! Now stay humble.

It's funny how the media and many onlookers perceive price action. Indeed, BTC only makes up a small part of my portfolio, but I'm still up this month. This definitely isn't a crash, so far it's just a much-needed correction that could turn into a crash. No real blood on the streets yet. Ethereum, my main holding, has only been above its current price for 15 days in its history.

It was pretty obvious that everything had been overbought for the last couple of weeks, mainly shown by projects with just a whitepaper and a twitter account getting billion dollar+ market caps. Those are the things to watch out for, not the headline prices of the main cryptos. That said, some of the current top 10 by market cap are certainly worthless, so the whole landscape needs to get rid of its bubble feel. Money was just chasing the next big thing, not real value, but projects that produce real value will shine through in the end.

will89 wrote:
That said, some of the current top 10 by market cap are certainly worthless, so the whole landscape needs to get rid of its bubble feel.

Money was just chasing the next big thing, not real value, but projects that produce real value will shine through in the end.

I've got to take my hat off to people with such conviction regarding the price of an asset like this, that currently exists in such a fluid regulatory environment -

Bitcoin’s price fell below $10,000 as a dramatic sell-off of all cryptocurrencies entered its second day, amid fears over tighter regulations in Asian markets.

So far, more than $200bn has been wiped off the value of global cryptocurrencies at the peak of the recent sell-off, which extended into Wednesday morning.

The sell-off appeared to be sparked by worries over tighter regulation in the key markets of South Korea and China.

http://www.netimperative.com/2018/01/cr ... gulations/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

It may be that bitcoin will surprise us again at some stage, all this downer sh1t , all those sunny uplands, now in ruins because of some negative price action? So now it's all kaput? That was it? Bitcoin destined to stupor, never to be in play again, withering away?

Can't be that easy.

Some great entertainment on this discussion thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2484019.340

Typical quote to whet the appetite:

I will personally sell at the price above 20k because [I] invested into bitcoin when prices were rising in December last year and after that prices goes down and still they are not recovering but I am sure they will recover soon because maximum of people are holding their coins and soon the prices will rise and will give us all a atmosphere of pleasure so that we all can live an epic life to by spending our bitcoin profit ahead.

Sooo glad people have found an asset that just keeps rising.

Wishing y'all an epic life of bitcoin spending!


GS

GS - It would be funny if it wasn't real people's money. It's perhaps a sorry sign of our society that people can get sucked into something like this, clearly they are desperate to make money but actually have no idea what or why they are buying. I do believe there will always be a market for something like Bitcoin, but it is only necessary for criminal activity (which whether you like it or not will always exist), otherwise it's a lot easier and cheaper to use FIAT.

It was a classic beautiful bubble the likes of which I have never seen before and will probably never see again but I am convinced the party is well and truly over. If I was a more ballsy trader I would be short but it could easily rally 20% in a few hours and I don't want to give back any of the money I made on the way up. Better to leave the party with a good feeling and needless to say I will always have a soft spot for Bitcoin in my heart.

Re your offer of giving to charity as a bet, I've started doing a weekly food shop at Tescos especially for the Food Bank - it's actually a lovely warm feeling doing something like that!

Surerera

Surerera wrote:GS - It would be funny if it wasn't real people's money. It's perhaps a sorry sign of our society that people can get sucked into something like this, clearly they are desperate to make money but actually have no idea what or why they are buying. I do believe there will always be a market for something like Bitcoin, but it is only necessary for criminal activity (which whether you like it or not will always exist), otherwise it's a lot easier and cheaper to use FIAT.

It was a classic beautiful bubble the likes of which I have never seen before and will probably never see again but I am convinced the party is well and truly over. If I was a more ballsy trader I would be short but it could easily rally 20% in a few hours and I don't want to give back any of the money I made on the way up. Better to leave the party with a good feeling and needless to say I will always have a soft spot for Bitcoin in my heart.

Re your offer of giving to charity as a bet, I've started doing a weekly food shop at Tescos especially for the Food Bank - it's actually a lovely warm feeling doing something like that!

Surerera

Well, at the moment I really don't feel like losing that bet, because I am massively short the S&P500 and it's killing me with its bitcoin-style rise so far this year. No idea how I'm escaping this one. The problem is it is a hedge for my long FTSE position but the correlation has completely broken down which is always the risk with hedges.

So well done. You played a blinder with bitcoin, which I think we both agree was a bubble and I have screwed up pretty big over the past six months. I doff my cap again!


GS
P.S. Have you spotted Mark Taber's post about the FCA complaint on his site. Worth a quick look -- but a pretty rum outcome given the huge personal effort, courage and professionalism he has put into it.

GoSeigen wrote:
Well, at the moment I really don't feel like losing that bet, because I am massively short the S&P500 and it's killing me with its bitcoin-style rise so far this year. No idea how I'm escaping this one. The problem is it is a hedge for my long FTSE position but the correlation has completely broken down which is always the risk with hedges.

So well done. You played a blinder with bitcoin, which I think we both agree was a bubble and I have screwed up pretty big over the past six months. I doff my cap again!


GS

Long the FTSE eh? Is this the last bear turning? I'm sure you won't want me harking back (yet again) a couple of years to your assertion that we were in the early stages of a savage bear market when FTSE 100 was around 5500.

As an aside from the cryptononsense (where we are in broad agreement) I first got interested in the stock market around the time of the 1987 crash, after which the FTSE 100 was around 1600 and the Dow 1900. Since then the gap between the two indices has widened to the point where the Dow is around 3.5x the FTSE. I've not checked but would guess it's a similar story for the relative value of other UK vs US indices. That's a pretty strong and long-lasting trend. I would guess it has to do with the more favourable corporate environment that has persisted across the pond?

It may break down at some point especially given how stretched US valuations are, but worth being aware of the history (I'm sure you are).

BoE

GS - Yes I ssaw Mark Taber's post, disgusting as you say but not really a surprise. I've pretty much given up on the FCA for anything, it seems the PI's are there to be shafted and if you aren't prepared for that then don't get involved with markets, especially bond markets, it seems they don't really want us to hold bonds apparently we are much better off in high risk equities.

Sorry to hear about your FTSE/S&P hedge, it seems the FTSE has been one of the worst performing markets over the last year or so. I can't really see why these markets are all going up, I'm very long cash, bonds and Bank Prefs so not getting much out of this bull run.

Good luck


Surerera

Bubblesofearth wrote:
Long the FTSE eh? Is this the last bear turning? I'm sure you won't want me harking back (yet again) a couple of years to your assertion that we were in the early stages of a savage bear market when FTSE 100 was around 5500.

BoE

I've been long FTSE for years BoE, hedged with short S&P futures & ETFs. I don't recognise your claims about what I've said but would be happy to look back if you can reproduce the original TMF thread. I do recall that the thread invited people to guess how far the FTSE could fall and IIRC I was quite happy that it had fallen as far enough already. But you got some sort of bee in your bonnet and have portrayed my position as strongly bearish ever since. I however, have long (since 2013??) taken the view that I should pick stocks and have been buying various sectors (banks, mining, oil, retail, and EM) ever since and have posted regularly to that effect. My holdings have been hedged to some extent thoughout.

You can form your own impressions yourself if you wish, but to try to tell me what I am thinking and what I believe is mildly abusive if you don't mind my saying. If you're truly interested, post the thread here and we'll discuss it.


GS

GoSeigen wrote:I've been long FTSE for years BoE, hedged with short S&P futures & ETFs. I don't recognise your claims about what I've said but would be happy to look back if you can reproduce the original TMF thread. I do recall that the thread invited people to guess how far the FTSE could fall and IIRC I was quite happy that it had fallen as far enough already. But you got some sort of bee in your bonnet and have portrayed my position as strongly bearish ever since. I however, have long (since 2013??) taken the view that I should pick stocks and have been buying various sectors (banks, mining, oil, retail, and EM) ever since and have posted regularly to that effect. My holdings have been hedged to some extent thoughout.

You can form your own impressions yourself if you wish, but to try to tell me what I am thinking and what I believe is mildly abusive if you don't mind my saying. If you're truly interested, post the thread here and we'll discuss it.


GS

I've tried a Google search but, rather annoyingly, can't find how to access TMF threads. Anyway, maybe best left alone if it's getting personal. There was a tongue-in-cheek intention to my previous post but I guess that never really comes across in text.

BoE

Bubblesofearth wrote:I've tried a Google search but, rather annoyingly, can't find how to access TMF threads. Anyway, maybe best left alone if it's getting personal. There was a tongue-in-cheek intention to my previous post but I guess that never really comes across in text.

BoE

That happened a looong time ago and was one thread in very many I've contributed to. One tries to take a nuanced approach to investing: even when I was strongly bullish gilts, I held very dodgy bank debt as well. Now I am rather bearish about gilts but still hold a token amount in case I'm wrong.

There are many things I get wrong about investing. The recovery since the GFC has been very slow but surprisingly sustained. I suspected that the downturn would be long e.g. arguing fiercely with BertEEE that there would be no V-shaped recovery. I also was strongly aware that when bonds had recovered shares should be bought. However I did not anticipate the bond recovery would take ages -- and when the time came to switch to equities I did so too timidly it seems. Or perhaps just misread the US/UK relative situation.

With cryptos, I decided long ago that there was no substance to bitcoin, and hope still to be proved right. But I was completely wrong about the extent to which other punters would buy in to the story -- in hindsight could easily have played the bubble game like Surerera but didn't.

To me the only defence against one's mistakes is to take positions even in the things one does not believe in. So when I had no confidence in equites I was still actively buying against my better judgement; but I figured if I was going to be buying then I better concentrate on cheap, unloved stuff. Thus positions in HSBA, WBS, CMCL, BP, EMG, JPEL, COST, JRS just to name a few have done very very well. It's just a shame that no-one is agreeing that US equity values are stretched. I'm really scratching my head.

Anyway, quite OT here so will stop my musing. Maybe a topic for a fresh thread.


GS
P.S. I'm sure someone here extracted/scraped all the TMF message archives. I wonder if they are easily accessible?

GoSeigen wrote:It's just a shame that no-one is agreeing that US equity values are stretched. I'm really scratching my head.

Almost everyone agrees that US equity values are stretched.

But valuation has never been a timing tool.

GS - If it makes you feel any better I've been actively trading both professionally and as a PI for about 40 years and I still make loads of mistakes, but as long as profits are bigger than losses I'll keep going.


Surerera