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Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

How are we doing?

Wider investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere
Snorvey
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Re: How are we doing?

#139413

Postby Snorvey » May 16th, 2018, 5:33 pm

Weak sterling might explain the FTSE100's rise but it doesn't really explain the FTSE250's even more relentless climb.

Snorvey
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Re: How are we doing?

#140424

Postby Snorvey » May 21st, 2018, 6:57 pm

Are we partying like it's nineteen ninety nine?

Everything other than Petrofac up today I think.

He'll, even the British bulldog supermarkets are rising up and rallying to stomp on those nasty German famine relief centres.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: How are we doing?

#140427

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 7:29 pm

I have a very bad feeling about this ...

Snorvey
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Re: How are we doing?

#140432

Postby Snorvey » May 21st, 2018, 7:55 pm

AleisterCrowley wrote:I have a very bad feeling about this ...


A non believer!

Stone him!

AleisterCrowley
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Re: How are we doing?

#140433

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 8:01 pm

Well, I'm certainly not going to buy anything at the moment.
I may even trim a few. A rare occurrence. Trouble is...which ones?

Snorvey
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Re: How are we doing?

#140435

Postby Snorvey » May 21st, 2018, 8:12 pm

Shell, Billiton BAE Aviva are a few of the obvious ones for me. On the other had Tesco for example have recovered strongly and offer a crappy dividend. Maybe it's time to cash in On them? On the other OTHER hand some of my IT's are cracking on too

What to buy? Murray international looks a bit beaten up as do some of the utilities. Vodafone? ITV? IMB?

Dunno. Maybe I'll have a look at the weekend.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: How are we doing?

#140443

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 9:41 pm

Dunno. Maybe I'll have a look at the weekend.
Yeh, me neither!
I keep meaning to do the basic sums (P/,E div cover, yield, all that guff) and trim a few down
I'm c 25% in cash at the moment
I hold 30 shares
I've done a snapshot recently and the top two - RDSB and BP. - are 21% of the equity portion of the portfolio by value, so a bit overweight oilies...

ap8889
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Re: How are we doing?

#140458

Postby ap8889 » May 22nd, 2018, 6:12 am

This is reminiscent of February. Yesterday, between market open and market close, I somehow got 1500 quid richer while doing nothing. Hmmm.

What I should have done last time my portfolio hit this sort of action was sell out and wait for the big rollercoaster that is currently heading higher and higher to go down the inevitable steep drop.

Not sure I have it in me to get off the ride though. Psychology is a bitch.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: How are we doing?

#140467

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 22nd, 2018, 8:27 am

I've never been good at 'taking money off the table' ...
Studies seem to suggest that most people can't time the market successfully.
Even if I did cash in - what percentage should I go for? How best to select candidates? Most importantly, would I be able to get back in again at the right time?
My default position is to stop buying when the market looks overvalued, and sit on the increasing dividend-fuelled cash pile until something happens.
A large correction is going to be painful though

tjh290633
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Re: How are we doing?

#140472

Postby tjh290633 » May 22nd, 2018, 8:54 am

ap8889 wrote:This is reminiscent of February. Yesterday, between market open and market close, I somehow got 1500 quid richer while doing nothing. Hmmm.

What I should have done last time my portfolio hit this sort of action was sell out and wait for the big rollercoaster that is currently heading higher and higher to go down the inevitable steep drop.

Not sure I have it in me to get off the ride though. Psychology is a bitch.

I've found that riding out a market correction usually works well. Dividends keep rolling in, and the market can turn round quickly. What is difficult is picking the top and anticipating the bottom. Just relax and enjoy the ride.

TJH

richfool
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Re: How are we doing?

#140477

Postby richfool » May 22nd, 2018, 9:07 am

I have in the past sold some stocks when I felt we were having, or about to have a correction, and then bought them back when the bounce came,- but very tricky to get it right. Either the fall had already got underway by the time I sold, or the bounce back up was underway by the time I bought back in. Plus the bid offer spread which often widens under sell-offs, (and trading costs) reduced the benefit gained if I got the timing right. On top of that, for as long as one is out of the market, one is not getting any dividends or dividend income that may arise.

So apart from perhaps reducing a sector allocation (e.g. the US) now I just leave it there, keep collecting the dividends and trust that if I have chosen my stocks wisely, what goes down will come back up again, and I try and maintain a balanced portfolio with lots of diversity amongst sectors.

Itsallaguess
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Re: How are we doing?

#140483

Postby Itsallaguess » May 22nd, 2018, 10:13 am

AleisterCrowley wrote:
I've never been good at 'taking money off the table' ...

Studies seem to suggest that most people can't time the market successfully.

Even if I did cash in - what percentage should I go for? How best to select candidates? Most importantly, would I be able to get back in again at the right time?

My default position is to stop buying when the market looks overvalued, and sit on the increasing dividend-fuelled cash pile until something happens.


I think if you're primarily a dividend-seeker, then you might be able to use that primary goal as a driver to help in periods where you might be thinking that the market has got ahead of itself.

Usually, if we're holding a wide spread of individual 'income-oriented' holdings, over a period of time (and more often when a steady, long-term market rise has occurred..), then you might find some of the yields on a small number of your holdings might have dipped into relatively low areas, primarily based on the share-price itself driving the yield lower over time.

In these circumstances, there's often other holdings that might not have had such stellar share-price performance, and who's yield is still quite acceptable when viewed against the rest of your portfolio. Either that, or there may be other income-investments that you don't currently hold that might look better prospects on an income-view, over a holding that might currently lag behind in yield terms.

If this occurs, and you're getting itchy fingers and a feeling that you 'need to do something', then it might be worth considering some rotation out of low-yielding stocks and into some of your higher-yielding shares, or a new 'better-yielding' holding, thus satisfying your primordial urge to be drawn to action, but more importantly also trying to help your dividend-income develop at the same time.

I hold what we might see as a 'hybrid-HYP', with many single-share holdings and a relatively large (around 30%) section of income-oriented Investment Trusts, and this adds an extra layer of options on top of the above potential process, in that if I'm feeling anxious about a particular share-holding that's gone on a rocket price-wise, which has also seen it's yield drop to a relatively low point because of that, I've sometimes rotated a single-share holding into an income-IT at that point, often with a view to increasing my income-level, where an IT might pay a better yield over the single-holding at that point, but more importantly to also take a little 'single-company-risk' out of my portfolio, and spread that capital around an income-IT that's paying a better dividend, but also crucially that's often spread around much more of the market than the single-share it's replaced.

With the above process, I'm clearly not removing much if any 'market-risk' if I'm re-investing any sales-proceeds, but I might feel that I've achieved a 'more robust income-stream' from carrying out such a manoeuvre, where the dividends from the IT might be better spread when viewed against the rest of my single-share holdings, from a market-segment or even world-market point of view. I think having these options available are one of the great advantages of holding income-Investment Trusts in a HYP, and I think it's one of the best moves I've made when I decided to introduce them to my HYP portfolio.

Just a couple of things to think about. Sometimes we can sell and then buy straight away and still be in a 'better position' whilst keeping more or less fully-invested, and because such a process ticks some of the 'primal urge' boxes that we might feel during these periods, it's surprising how much better you feel for both doing 'something', and also that the 'something' leaves you in a better overall-portfolio position, whilst still not dropping into actual cash (over and above whatever level of cash you want to be in at any point..)...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

DiamondEcho
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Re: How are we doing?

#140502

Postby DiamondEcho » May 22nd, 2018, 11:21 am

Snorvey wrote:Are we partying like it's nineteen ninety nine?


FTSE100 +14% since the previous peak 18+ years ago around 1-Jan-99. I feel more like we're catching up for lost time and I get no sense of exuberance being expressed, rather quiet cautious optimism.
Back in '99 everyone and his dog was trading and many were making money. Everyone had a share-tip to give, they were very heady times, it felt like the dawn of a digital-era changed everything including all the rules. The irrational exuberance became clear after the bust.

swill453
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Re: How are we doing?

#140636

Postby swill453 » May 22nd, 2018, 8:26 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:FTSE100 +14% since the previous peak 18+ years ago around 1-Jan-99. I feel more like we're catching up for lost time

The FTSE 100 breached the 1999 peak in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Did you miss that?

Scott.

Snorvey
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Re: How are we doing?

#140682

Postby Snorvey » May 23rd, 2018, 8:58 am

FTSE100 +14% since the previous peak 18+ years ago around 1-Jan-99. I feel more like we're catching up for lost time and I get no sense of exuberance being expressed, rather quiet cautious optimism.
Back in '99 everyone and his dog was trading and many were making money. Everyone had a share-tip to give, they were very heady times, it felt like the dawn of a digital-era changed everything including all the rules. The irrational exuberance became clear after the bust.


Ok, so I think DE meant +14% since the heady days of 1999/2000. Back in those days, the FTSE was full of blue sky crap. The FTSE Techmark was talked about more than the main indexes. There was even a Share Channel on satellite tv with Justin Urquart Stewart and that Louise girl and David whassisname from Cantor Fitzgerald.

So I agree with DE. The market is doing well but it's nothing like the mental conditions that existed in early 2000.

DiamondEcho
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Re: How are we doing?

#140723

Postby DiamondEcho » May 23rd, 2018, 10:56 am

@Swill: Yep I am aware of more recent UK highs, but I was making a comparison to '99 as that figures very large in my memory. That Autumn I'd relo'd to the US to work on the roll-out of that bank's shiny new future digital 'on-line, anywhere, any time' platform, only for the whole $105mm project to go up in flames (with the market), together with my job, shortly afterwards.

Snorvey wrote:Back in those days, the FTSE was full of blue sky crap. ...The market is doing well but it's nothing like the mental conditions that existed in early 2000.

Yep, it was, I saw that before I departed the UK for the US. In the US many people already had the ability to self-invest all set-up and running, generally participation in the stock-markets was much deeper. The availability of the likes of margin trading was quite typical to access, so speculating on leveraged funds was not uncommon. Over there there was an expression: 'When the shoe-shine guy gives you a stock-tip then you know the market is heading for trouble'. That was happening, and it was reflective of how broadly people had bought into the imagined new era/paradigm. I've seen nothing comparable this time yet, but you can bet I'm watching closely! :lol:


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