Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

How are we doing?

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
OLTB
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1343
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:55 am
Has thanked: 1339 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138380

Postby OLTB » May 11th, 2018, 3:55 pm

Up until very recently I was 100% invested - having noted Itsallaguess's previous comments on other posts that he was about 14% or so in cash. When IMB had it's latest fall I had no spare cash to take advantage of this. I now see the sense of keeping a little of my powder dry to take advantage of any future company/sector downturns when they arise so will ensure that I have a little stash of cash ready to pounce. Always learning...

Cheers, OLTB.

Urbandreamer
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3121
Joined: December 7th, 2016, 9:09 pm
Has thanked: 347 times
Been thanked: 1025 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138396

Postby Urbandreamer » May 11th, 2018, 4:54 pm

Just like OLTB i'm normally 100% invested.

The correction about 3 months ago spooked me (somewhat to my surprise) and I moved quite a bit into cash. At my highest level I was 12% cash.

So how am I doing? Well I have a artificial year end of the 5th of April. Since then I'm up 7.9% as opposed to the FTSE100 which is up 6.9%
I'm currently 8.7% cash and still uneasy about the market. (The correction wiped out most of my gains last year leaving a paltry 1.5% return, but still better than the FTSE 100 which lost that over the same time).

However as others have said, is it really desirable to be 100% equity invested? Our passive friends who plug Vangard lifestyle funds don't seem to think so.
Personally I enjoy investing too much and have too little faith in governments to actually maintain any significant cash pile. I'm going to try and hang on to that cash until September, but don't hold your breath.

Quint
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 185
Joined: January 22nd, 2018, 3:06 pm
Has thanked: 136 times
Been thanked: 73 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138400

Postby Quint » May 11th, 2018, 5:31 pm

Wmnr wrote:Nobody has mentioned sterling. The weaker it is the higher the FTSE goes. I wouldn't be surprised if the FTSE hits 8000 before this Brexit malarky is over.

True, I think sterling volatility is going to be with us for a while. Especially with Mark Carnage and his forward guidance.

swill453
Lemon Half
Posts: 7962
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:11 pm
Has thanked: 984 times
Been thanked: 3643 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138411

Postby swill453 » May 11th, 2018, 6:17 pm

Interestingly (maybe) is that although the FTSE100 isn't quite at its all-time high, the FTSE All Share Total Return index (which is what I measure my performance against) is (by about 1% over its January peak).

Probably not surprising since dividends have been rolling in since then.

Scott.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138431

Postby tjh290633 » May 11th, 2018, 8:01 pm

BrummieDave wrote:And if I thought people would tell me what words it's not appropriate to use at the beginning of a sentence I'd think twice about posting too.

Like Ian Pickering said on another thread yesterday, this isn't school.

I'm at 11% cash btw :D

Maybe the test should be, how would I feel if someone said that about me? Or to quote Thumper, "If you can't find anything nice to say, don't say anything".

TJH

GeoffF100
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4724
Joined: November 14th, 2016, 7:33 pm
Has thanked: 178 times
Been thanked: 1363 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138443

Postby GeoffF100 » May 11th, 2018, 9:09 pm

The FTSE 100 is near its all time high, and my UK shares appear to have done well recently. Vanguard Developed World ex UK is also near its all time high. Vanguard Emerging Markets VFEM peaked on 26th January and has not recovered. I called the top of the developed markets, and put fresh money into bonds. Purely by chance, I sold some emerging markets on 26th January. It looks as though the peak for the developed markets is about to be retested. Will they turn back or punch through? My guess is that they will turn back. Either way, I am sitting on my hands for now.

hiriskpaul
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3852
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:04 pm
Has thanked: 682 times
Been thanked: 1489 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138446

Postby hiriskpaul » May 11th, 2018, 9:59 pm

Excluding property I divide investments into equities, fixed income and "speculative", which is mainly options trading. The last 5 or so years this means 25% equities, mostly ETFs/trackers now, but also get exposure through equity index futures, VCTs, ITs and a small number of individual shares. I topped up to 25% at the end of March/beginning of April, so I now consider myself "fully invested" with respect to equities. I have not calculated it precisely, but I think the portfolio is largely unchanged year to date, excluding dividends.

Fixed income is 50%, but only about 80% invested, the rest in cash. The reason for this is that I hold a lot of undated FI (prefs, PIBS, PSBs) and the cash is a counterweight used to reduce duration. I also sold some LLPC recently to take some risk off the table. FI has been a mixed bag so far this year. Some positive returns from Provident Financial, Premier Oil, Enquest, much unchanged, such as Co-op Group bonds and some capital losses on prefs due to the "Cancel at par" Aviva announcement upsetting the prefs market. Again, I have not tried to calculate precise returns, which is difficult due to accrued interest on bonds, but I suspect I am down because of the Aviva initiated problems.

With my 25% allocation to options trading, the entire variation margin is held in cash, scattered around various instant access accounts or at the broker, so not earning a great deal of interest. However, options trading has been extremely profitable so far this year due to all the volatility that kicked off in February. I have puts expiring next Friday and in 5 weeks time and if they all expire worthless, which looks likely, I will have made a 22% return since February.

Pastcaring
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 171
Joined: November 18th, 2017, 10:35 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 40 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138806

Postby Pastcaring » May 13th, 2018, 2:11 pm

I'm not sure over what period of time but here goes.
From my peak ( early 2015 ) down around 200 K.Doesn' t really bother me.In any given year 25% rise or fall is normal.

The plan was always to live off dividends ,that side has gone great.Around 4% annual compounding since 2015.

Buying shares at low prices and excess income going to DRP means the drop is around 25K.The plan A was always to retire on a net income of double average earnings.

Then plan B was aim for paying average earnings in tax.Thankfully both occurred.

melonfool
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2939
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:18 am
Has thanked: 1365 times
Been thanked: 793 times

Re: How are we doing?

#138870

Postby melonfool » May 13th, 2018, 6:24 pm

During the low point (Feb) I talked myself into selling utes when they got back into the black - they are now back in the black and I can't recall why I thought I would sell them (SSE and Severn Trent). Volatility I think. Though they are good dividend payers.

But, if I sell them now (c£4k worth) then I need to reinvest and if the market is high then it's always a concern.

I admit, I am now moving away from individual shares and more towards ITs. I'm happy to have a core holding of decent shares but I got a bit bored of having to think about it all the time, so I bought two ITs and have since bought AJBell's own fund (the cautious one at this stage) which I am reinvesting all dividends in (once I get £500, though there is no fee to buy this fund currently).

So, maybe I will sell them and buy another IT. I have CQS New City High and Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Income so far. And a few ETFs.

I have c£50k in equities and c£30k in cash, but most of that cash is in a fixed rate/fixed term ISA so I don't need to make any decision about it for another 2 years (one of my better decisions!). I have a couple of regular savers that will end later this year.

Most of my 'spare' money goes into the SIPP now and, for some reason, I prefer to hold funds in there. I am about to move my main pension into it too, so will then need to think about how to invest that, plus my current employer pension which will go into deferment once I leave there in Sept.

Mel

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3131
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 3060 times
Been thanked: 554 times

Re: How are we doing?

#139412

Postby DiamondEcho » May 16th, 2018, 5:30 pm

Wmnr wrote:Nobody has mentioned sterling. The weaker it is the higher the FTSE goes. I wouldn't be surprised if the FTSE hits 8000 before this Brexit malarky is over.


Nor would I. 8k has been a feature on and off the weekly technical forecasts over at FXEmpire for a month or two now; as their long[est] term target level above. We're in a rising wedge pattern right now [since the beginning of April], 7800 beckons on an upward break-out, and then once that is digested 8k.
More Sterling weakness +/or something notably positive re: BREXIT could combine to be the required catalyst.

AleisterCrowley
Lemon Half
Posts: 6381
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 1880 times
Been thanked: 2026 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140427

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 7:29 pm

I have a very bad feeling about this ...

AleisterCrowley
Lemon Half
Posts: 6381
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 1880 times
Been thanked: 2026 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140433

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 8:01 pm

Well, I'm certainly not going to buy anything at the moment.
I may even trim a few. A rare occurrence. Trouble is...which ones?

AleisterCrowley
Lemon Half
Posts: 6381
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 1880 times
Been thanked: 2026 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140443

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 21st, 2018, 9:41 pm

Dunno. Maybe I'll have a look at the weekend.
Yeh, me neither!
I keep meaning to do the basic sums (P/,E div cover, yield, all that guff) and trim a few down
I'm c 25% in cash at the moment
I hold 30 shares
I've done a snapshot recently and the top two - RDSB and BP. - are 21% of the equity portion of the portfolio by value, so a bit overweight oilies...

AleisterCrowley
Lemon Half
Posts: 6381
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 1880 times
Been thanked: 2026 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140467

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 22nd, 2018, 8:27 am

I've never been good at 'taking money off the table' ...
Studies seem to suggest that most people can't time the market successfully.
Even if I did cash in - what percentage should I go for? How best to select candidates? Most importantly, would I be able to get back in again at the right time?
My default position is to stop buying when the market looks overvalued, and sit on the increasing dividend-fuelled cash pile until something happens.
A large correction is going to be painful though

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140472

Postby tjh290633 » May 22nd, 2018, 8:54 am

ap8889 wrote:This is reminiscent of February. Yesterday, between market open and market close, I somehow got 1500 quid richer while doing nothing. Hmmm.

What I should have done last time my portfolio hit this sort of action was sell out and wait for the big rollercoaster that is currently heading higher and higher to go down the inevitable steep drop.

Not sure I have it in me to get off the ride though. Psychology is a bitch.

I've found that riding out a market correction usually works well. Dividends keep rolling in, and the market can turn round quickly. What is difficult is picking the top and anticipating the bottom. Just relax and enjoy the ride.

TJH

richfool
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3492
Joined: November 19th, 2016, 2:02 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 1280 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140477

Postby richfool » May 22nd, 2018, 9:07 am

I have in the past sold some stocks when I felt we were having, or about to have a correction, and then bought them back when the bounce came,- but very tricky to get it right. Either the fall had already got underway by the time I sold, or the bounce back up was underway by the time I bought back in. Plus the bid offer spread which often widens under sell-offs, (and trading costs) reduced the benefit gained if I got the timing right. On top of that, for as long as one is out of the market, one is not getting any dividends or dividend income that may arise.

So apart from perhaps reducing a sector allocation (e.g. the US) now I just leave it there, keep collecting the dividends and trust that if I have chosen my stocks wisely, what goes down will come back up again, and I try and maintain a balanced portfolio with lots of diversity amongst sectors.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140483

Postby Itsallaguess » May 22nd, 2018, 10:13 am

AleisterCrowley wrote:
I've never been good at 'taking money off the table' ...

Studies seem to suggest that most people can't time the market successfully.

Even if I did cash in - what percentage should I go for? How best to select candidates? Most importantly, would I be able to get back in again at the right time?

My default position is to stop buying when the market looks overvalued, and sit on the increasing dividend-fuelled cash pile until something happens.


I think if you're primarily a dividend-seeker, then you might be able to use that primary goal as a driver to help in periods where you might be thinking that the market has got ahead of itself.

Usually, if we're holding a wide spread of individual 'income-oriented' holdings, over a period of time (and more often when a steady, long-term market rise has occurred..), then you might find some of the yields on a small number of your holdings might have dipped into relatively low areas, primarily based on the share-price itself driving the yield lower over time.

In these circumstances, there's often other holdings that might not have had such stellar share-price performance, and who's yield is still quite acceptable when viewed against the rest of your portfolio. Either that, or there may be other income-investments that you don't currently hold that might look better prospects on an income-view, over a holding that might currently lag behind in yield terms.

If this occurs, and you're getting itchy fingers and a feeling that you 'need to do something', then it might be worth considering some rotation out of low-yielding stocks and into some of your higher-yielding shares, or a new 'better-yielding' holding, thus satisfying your primordial urge to be drawn to action, but more importantly also trying to help your dividend-income develop at the same time.

I hold what we might see as a 'hybrid-HYP', with many single-share holdings and a relatively large (around 30%) section of income-oriented Investment Trusts, and this adds an extra layer of options on top of the above potential process, in that if I'm feeling anxious about a particular share-holding that's gone on a rocket price-wise, which has also seen it's yield drop to a relatively low point because of that, I've sometimes rotated a single-share holding into an income-IT at that point, often with a view to increasing my income-level, where an IT might pay a better yield over the single-holding at that point, but more importantly to also take a little 'single-company-risk' out of my portfolio, and spread that capital around an income-IT that's paying a better dividend, but also crucially that's often spread around much more of the market than the single-share it's replaced.

With the above process, I'm clearly not removing much if any 'market-risk' if I'm re-investing any sales-proceeds, but I might feel that I've achieved a 'more robust income-stream' from carrying out such a manoeuvre, where the dividends from the IT might be better spread when viewed against the rest of my single-share holdings, from a market-segment or even world-market point of view. I think having these options available are one of the great advantages of holding income-Investment Trusts in a HYP, and I think it's one of the best moves I've made when I decided to introduce them to my HYP portfolio.

Just a couple of things to think about. Sometimes we can sell and then buy straight away and still be in a 'better position' whilst keeping more or less fully-invested, and because such a process ticks some of the 'primal urge' boxes that we might feel during these periods, it's surprising how much better you feel for both doing 'something', and also that the 'something' leaves you in a better overall-portfolio position, whilst still not dropping into actual cash (over and above whatever level of cash you want to be in at any point..)...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3131
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 3060 times
Been thanked: 554 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140502

Postby DiamondEcho » May 22nd, 2018, 11:21 am

Snorvey wrote:Are we partying like it's nineteen ninety nine?


FTSE100 +14% since the previous peak 18+ years ago around 1-Jan-99. I feel more like we're catching up for lost time and I get no sense of exuberance being expressed, rather quiet cautious optimism.
Back in '99 everyone and his dog was trading and many were making money. Everyone had a share-tip to give, they were very heady times, it felt like the dawn of a digital-era changed everything including all the rules. The irrational exuberance became clear after the bust.

swill453
Lemon Half
Posts: 7962
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:11 pm
Has thanked: 984 times
Been thanked: 3643 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140636

Postby swill453 » May 22nd, 2018, 8:26 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:FTSE100 +14% since the previous peak 18+ years ago around 1-Jan-99. I feel more like we're catching up for lost time

The FTSE 100 breached the 1999 peak in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Did you miss that?

Scott.

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3131
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 3060 times
Been thanked: 554 times

Re: How are we doing?

#140723

Postby DiamondEcho » May 23rd, 2018, 10:56 am

@Swill: Yep I am aware of more recent UK highs, but I was making a comparison to '99 as that figures very large in my memory. That Autumn I'd relo'd to the US to work on the roll-out of that bank's shiny new future digital 'on-line, anywhere, any time' platform, only for the whole $105mm project to go up in flames (with the market), together with my job, shortly afterwards.

Snorvey wrote:Back in those days, the FTSE was full of blue sky crap. ...The market is doing well but it's nothing like the mental conditions that existed in early 2000.

Yep, it was, I saw that before I departed the UK for the US. In the US many people already had the ability to self-invest all set-up and running, generally participation in the stock-markets was much deeper. The availability of the likes of margin trading was quite typical to access, so speculating on leveraged funds was not uncommon. Over there there was an expression: 'When the shoe-shine guy gives you a stock-tip then you know the market is heading for trouble'. That was happening, and it was reflective of how broadly people had bought into the imagined new era/paradigm. I've seen nothing comparable this time yet, but you can bet I'm watching closely! :lol:


Return to “Investment Strategies”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: elephanthunt11 and 5 guests