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Taking a look at global emerging markets?

Wider investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere
FredBloggs
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Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165224

Postby FredBloggs » September 9th, 2018, 5:04 am

Over the years, I have always had a dire experience of investing in emerging markets. In the past I have bought and held until I got fed up of, Templeton Emerging Markets, Aberdeen Emerging Markets (truly dire IIRC) and even bought Fleming Chinese (now JPM Chinese?) at launch a long time ago. But........... Sentiment is presently poor and falling, investment returns have not generally been good. My attention is drawn to JPM Emerging Markets IT. It has made money the last year, just about. And trades at about 12% discount, which I like when thinking about ITs. Presently it has no gearing. Might keep half an eye on this and may think about tucking a chunk away once things get really gloomy. AIC page on this IT is here - https://www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/173/performance

Urbandreamer
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165231

Postby Urbandreamer » September 9th, 2018, 8:35 am

Why are you interested in EM Fred. Possibly I should phrase that as what specifically attracts you to them?

A year ago I invested in TEM and am currently down about 8%. I was drawn to them reading a peice by their then manager explaining the growth possibilities of tech companies in EM. Saddly that manager has moved on to join his old boss, who was keen on EM resource stocks (something that I'm less interested in). So Fred, what's the apeal for you? Is it just that you feel they are oversold?

FredBloggs
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165237

Postby FredBloggs » September 9th, 2018, 9:06 am

Urbandreamer wrote:Why are you interested in EM Fred. Possibly I should phrase that as what specifically attracts you to them?

A year ago I invested in TEM and am currently down about 8%. I was drawn to them reading a peice by their then manager explaining the growth possibilities of tech companies in EM. Saddly that manager has moved on to join his old boss, who was keen on EM resource stocks (something that I'm less interested in). So Fred, what's the apeal for you? Is it just that you feel they are oversold?

Good questions. Well, if I have any strategy at all, I'd describe it as opportunistic. And that may help answer your other questions too. If there's money to be made there, I'll buy into it. My track record here is dire so I'm not jumping in. You make a good point as well, it is often the very worst time to buy into something when folks are suggesting that you do so. Sentiment towards EM is poor and getting poorer by the day. Argentina, Turkey etc.... I always click the buy button too early, I can't help myself in that I'm afraid. But this is a developing situation to watch carefully, I reckon. JPM EM IT? Looking at it, decent discount, top drawer returns, a small divi, still making money, stakes in some huge Chinese tech names. Negatives - For me, almost no Korea (I am very much a Korea fan) and no Vietnam. Though Korea isn't really emerging any more and Vietnam is perhaps late stage frontier.

tjh290633
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165289

Postby tjh290633 » September 9th, 2018, 12:21 pm

Have you looked at BNY Mellon Newton Oriental? My wife has held it for about 20 years or so, with decent results.

TJH

FredBloggs
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165292

Postby FredBloggs » September 9th, 2018, 12:32 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Have you looked at BNY Mellon Newton Oriental? My wife has held it for about 20 years or so, with decent results.

TJH

Never heard of it, thanks. I'll take a look.

hiriskpaul
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#165993

Postby hiriskpaul » September 12th, 2018, 10:37 pm

The MSCI EM index is down around 6% this year, a mere blip when it comes to EM rather than a blood on the streets opportunity, but discounts are reasonably wide right now and if you want a punt I would go with the JPM IT. I have a fairly big position in Templeton Emerging Markets and they annoyed me a little while ago when they introduced the policy of allocating some management fees and expenses to capital in order to increase dividends, thereby unnecessarily increasing my income tax bill. To be fair, JPM do the same annoying thing. I am also concerned about TEM being too loaded up on Chinese tech stocks and raising gearing recently to buy more!

I target 10% EM in my global equities portfolio and see no reason to change that at present (like I said, no blood on the streets). I am however underweight due to falls this year and will probably top up next time I reinvest accumulated divis in our ISAs, which will be around the beginning of October. However I have been making additional investments in global EM via ETFs as recent evidence has shown that active managers have no edge when it comes to EM, despite the supposedly less efficient markets. I guess I might be tempted into JPM with the current discount, but the fees are a bit off-putting.

FredBloggs
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#166090

Postby FredBloggs » September 13th, 2018, 1:39 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:The MSCI EM index is down around 6% this year, a mere blip when it comes to EM rather than a blood on the streets opportunity,
Hmmm, I believe "blood on the streets" was coined by Mark Mobius? I'll leave you with this little nugget https://www.ii.co.uk/ipos/mmit/documents/

hiriskpaul
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#166096

Postby hiriskpaul » September 13th, 2018, 2:03 pm

Mobius may have used the phrase but I think it goes back way before him!

I have held TEM since 1990 and so am very familiar with Mobius. Overall his results were good and he made a good call in staying out of the dot-com bubble, but the performance was very erratic. He is no closet tracker and if you bought in at the start of one of his poor periods you would not have a very high opinion. I will not be investing in his new fund.
Last edited by hiriskpaul on September 13th, 2018, 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

FredBloggs
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#166097

Postby FredBloggs » September 13th, 2018, 2:05 pm

I have held TEMIT in the (fairly distant) past. It must have been in one of his quieter periods, I recall being fairly unimpressed by him at the time.

Hariseldon58
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Re: Taking a look at global emerging markets?

#166173

Postby Hariseldon58 » September 13th, 2018, 8:59 pm

I held warrants in Templeton Emerging Markets in the 1990’s, they had years to run and did not require much a rise to be a good investment, well years later, they broke even !

I too have held Emerging markets for 25 years + and on a long time frame they do well but they can stagnate for years too and I think now they are a better momentum play, buy when people start to enthuse and have a policy in place to get you out before they have a bad run.

I have been reducing and booked a 50% gain and personally I won’t be leaping back in for a while !


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