Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Anonymous,MyNameIsUrl,6Tricia,staffordian, for Donating to support the site

Tech correction

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 7230
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 3273 times
Been thanked: 6465 times

Re: Tech correction

#444239

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2021, 6:58 pm

Quint wrote:
Adamski wrote:
China correction continuing today. BG China Growth down 7.1% today, Pacific Horizon down 4.5% today due to growth fears. Steel output slump not a good sign for global growth. However guess this could/may be a good time to get into China as will eventually overtake the US economy, estimate 2028 be the world's largest economy, and stockmarket valuations will eventually reflect that.


Interesting article by Stephen Yiu (Blue Whale Growth) where he believes China has now become uninvestable due to the unpredictable actions of the government. I sold my only China Trust a while ago and have outsourced this decision to my global managers who are better placed to make a call on this.

Can't link the article as I can't remember where it was, may have been the Telegraph.


It was the Telegraph, and here's a link to the 18th September article -

Stephen Yiu, manager of the £980m Blue Whale Growth fund, said Chinese companies were almost uninvestable because of the political risks.

“There has always been some risk, but it has gone into overdrive. Businesses are no longer run for shareholders but for the Chinese Communist Party.

“Even if revenues keep growing, profits could be confiscated and companies could be nationalised. We have nothing invested in China right now. We did own one stock, Tencent, in 2018,” he said.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, added his voice to the debate, saying investing in China would prove a “tragic mistake”. He said CCP leader Xi Jinping regarded all private companies as instruments of the one-party state and investors who bought shares would face a rude awakening.

But others said political risk did not mean investors could not make money in China. Ewan Markson-Brown, of Crux Asset Management, said: “Investors have to stay on the right side of Beijing. There could still be worse to come for Chinese shares, but I imagine it will be over by the end of the year and there will be a recovery.”

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund group, said while investors should be mindful of the ongoing political tension, China would always be part of a balanced portfolio.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/china-has-become-uninvestable-can-still-profit-asian-stocks/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Adamski
Lemon Slice
Posts: 355
Joined: July 13th, 2020, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 560 times
Been thanked: 150 times

Re: Tech correction

#444721

Postby Adamski » September 23rd, 2021, 1:41 pm

I think George Soros despite his genius might have home bias.

I think US markets are overvalued and have been a long time since recovering from the covid crash, using metrics like market cap to gdp. Conversely China, UK, Europe are undervalued.

At some point in the future, China will overtake the US economy. Then having World markets which are 50% US and 10% China, and classing China as a "developing" country, will not make sense and have to change.

So you're going to get a realignment at some future point, either US - Tech correction down, or China going long way up. You can't do stimulus and money printing for ever, at some stage reality will catch up and you'll get inflation or crash, then we'll all say we saw that coming.

That's my thoughts as to why important to have some exposure to china/ pacific in a balanced portfolio and not be too overweight in the US.

richfool
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3138
Joined: November 19th, 2016, 2:02 pm
Has thanked: 770 times
Been thanked: 823 times

Re: Tech correction

#444733

Postby richfool » September 23rd, 2021, 2:29 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Quint wrote:
Adamski wrote:
China correction continuing today. BG China Growth down 7.1% today, Pacific Horizon down 4.5% today due to growth fears. Steel output slump not a good sign for global growth. However guess this could/may be a good time to get into China as will eventually overtake the US economy, estimate 2028 be the world's largest economy, and stockmarket valuations will eventually reflect that.


Interesting article by Stephen Yiu (Blue Whale Growth) where he believes China has now become uninvestable due to the unpredictable actions of the government. I sold my only China Trust a while ago and have outsourced this decision to my global managers who are better placed to make a call on this.

Can't link the article as I can't remember where it was, may have been the Telegraph.


It was the Telegraph, and here's a link to the 18th September article -

Stephen Yiu, manager of the £980m Blue Whale Growth fund, said Chinese companies were almost uninvestable because of the political risks.

“There has always been some risk, but it has gone into overdrive. Businesses are no longer run for shareholders but for the Chinese Communist Party.

“Even if revenues keep growing, profits could be confiscated and companies could be nationalised. We have nothing invested in China right now. We did own one stock, Tencent, in 2018,” he said.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, added his voice to the debate, saying investing in China would prove a “tragic mistake”. He said CCP leader Xi Jinping regarded all private companies as instruments of the one-party state and investors who bought shares would face a rude awakening.

But others said political risk did not mean investors could not make money in China. Ewan Markson-Brown, of Crux Asset Management, said: “Investors have to stay on the right side of Beijing. There could still be worse to come for Chinese shares, but I imagine it will be over by the end of the year and there will be a recovery.”

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund group, said while investors should be mindful of the ongoing political tension, China would always be part of a balanced portfolio.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/china-has-become-uninvestable-can-still-profit-asian-stocks/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Here was my earlier post on the subject, from the Telegraph on the 18th September, posted here:

viewtopic.php?p=443247#p443247

My concern is a geopolitical dispute involving China, and maybe Taiwan.

Humeau
Posts: 22
Joined: July 24th, 2019, 7:47 am
Has thanked: 7 times
Been thanked: 12 times

Re: Tech correction

#446214

Postby Humeau » September 29th, 2021, 10:38 am

I think China is misunderstood and Ray Dalio has made some pertinent points regarding the situation recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPNTRJxbq_w

Exposure to China can be gained through Prosus on the Euronext. It owns around 30% of Tencent and the complicated structure with Naspers hasn't helped investor sentiment. Looking past all that, I think that there is growth available at a deep discount.

However a tech correction will happen, sooner or later, but I don't think Tencent's business will be weaker as a result and I suspect that some of the side bets made by Prosus will come good eventually.

Adamski
Lemon Slice
Posts: 355
Joined: July 13th, 2020, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 560 times
Been thanked: 150 times

Re: Tech correction

#447801

Postby Adamski » October 4th, 2021, 5:04 pm

Heading toward correction territory again...

Nasdaq 100 down 2.6% today, 7.77% past month

China tech also down, JCGI down 3.3% today, 11.49% past month

Being hit by rising inflation, interest rates and market sentiment. Further to go, or buying opportunity?

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1215
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 462 times
Been thanked: 352 times

Re: Tech correction

#447803

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » October 4th, 2021, 5:06 pm

Adamski wrote:Further to go, or buying opportunity?


I'm so horny!

Adamski
Lemon Slice
Posts: 355
Joined: July 13th, 2020, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 560 times
Been thanked: 150 times

Re: Tech correction

#448022

Postby Adamski » October 5th, 2021, 12:46 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:


Kids borrowed your phone?! or becoming unhinged with your Smithson correction :lol:

AWOL
Lemon Slice
Posts: 287
Joined: October 20th, 2020, 5:08 pm
Has thanked: 180 times
Been thanked: 120 times

Re: Tech correction

#448061

Postby AWOL » October 5th, 2021, 3:13 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
Adamski wrote:Further to go, or buying opportunity?


I'm so horny!


Welcome to LemonHub

Am I the only person that feels increasingly relaxed about having lots of equity exposure the lower markets get. When they are doing well I get nose bleeds, when they sell off I feel that the risk is increasingly to the upside!

Adamski
Lemon Slice
Posts: 355
Joined: July 13th, 2020, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 560 times
Been thanked: 150 times

Re: Tech correction

#448062

Postby Adamski » October 5th, 2021, 3:19 pm

AWOL wrote:Am I the only person that feels increasingly relaxed about having lots of equity exposure the lower markets get. When they are doing well I get nose bleeds, when they sell off I feel that the risk is increasingly to the upside!


Not the only one, being relaxed is uncommon for us retail investors. Retail investors typically panic sell when you get a correction.

That's why the most profitable accounts with hl, aj Bell etc are those frozen awaiting probate, or because the user has forgotten their password and locked themselves out :lol:


Return to “Investment Strategies”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests