Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77, for Donating to support the site

Rotation into Value

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
BT63
Lemon Slice
Posts: 432
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 59 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471815

Postby BT63 » January 10th, 2022, 5:19 pm

simoan wrote:Well, yes, but it's not even my best performing compounder. I have several others. What about Apple at $15.50 in March 2013? Games Workshop? Diploma? All now on roughly the same rating as when I first bought them despite multi-bagging. All the worst investing mistakes I have made is by selling long term compounders too early based on some strange idea of them being overvalued. Some companies always look overvalued and they are often the best ones to hold for the longer term as they keep on compounding.
All the best, Si


Value investing can work, too. It just happens to be out of fashion recently because what are perceived as growthy investments do well when there is plenty of stimulus. The last couple of years have seen more stimulus in the US than at any time in history.

A great example of value investing was about 10 - 15 years ago, AstraZeneca could be bought for £20 - £30 on a P/E in the mid-single-digits, net cash position, with a high-single-digit dividend yield, and where even if they never developed a new drug again an investor could expect existing drugs to pay back the value of the shares before their patents expired.

Since then, Astra's profits haven't (yet) soared but the shares have re-rated to £83 currently (flirted with £100 last year) and they paid a good dividend along the way while telling Pfizer to go do one when approached for a takeover.

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471816

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2022, 5:30 pm

BT63 wrote:
simoan wrote:Well, yes, but it's not even my best performing compounder. I have several others. What about Apple at $15.50 in March 2013? Games Workshop? Diploma? All now on roughly the same rating as when I first bought them despite multi-bagging. All the worst investing mistakes I have made is by selling long term compounders too early based on some strange idea of them being overvalued. Some companies always look overvalued and they are often the best ones to hold for the longer term as they keep on compounding.
All the best, Si


Value investing can work, too. It just happens to be out of fashion recently because what are perceived as growthy investments do well when there is plenty of stimulus. The last couple of years have seen more stimulus in the US than at any time in history.

A great example of value investing was about 10 - 15 years ago, AstraZeneca could be bought for £20 - £30 on a P/E in the mid-single-digits, net cash position, with a high-single-digit dividend yield, and where even if they never developed a new drug again an investor could expect existing drugs to pay back the value of the shares before their patents expired.

Since then, Astra's profits haven't (yet) soared but the shares have re-rated to £83 currently (flirted with £100 last year) and they paid a good dividend along the way while telling Pfizer to go do one when approached for a takeover.

I am not suggesting value investing does not work. It just depends on your valuation method and what you define as "Value". Personally, I do not use a low PER as a sign of value - the "E" is too easily manipulated by accountants, especially in the case of AstraZeneca! I prefer the measure suggested by others such as Price to Book Value, especially where the Book Value is < 1 and made up of good solid tangible assets e.g. cash, property. I am not immune to investing in such situations myself. I suggest you maybe read the Howard Marks newsletter I linked to earlier to get an idea of what I mean.

All the best, Si

hiriskpaul
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3913
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:04 pm
Has thanked: 703 times
Been thanked: 1552 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471817

Postby hiriskpaul » January 10th, 2022, 5:33 pm

simoan wrote:
hiriskpaul wrote:
simoan wrote:I think it's at times like this that you need to consider the effect of compounding and why this idea of selling quality growth companies is absurd (assuming your investment timescale is longer than the length of your nose). When I first bought my MSFT holding in 2004 US interest rates were 1%. It was acquired at an average price of $27. FY2004 diluted earnings was 76 cents, so it was roughly on a PER of 36. The same as today! And yet the share price is currently $306. I have several other examples. I don't need to tell you what the share price was for "Value" shares because something bad happened in 2008. In particular, the book value of banks turned out to be a complete and utter illusion.

All the best, Si

Cherry picking or what!

Well, yes, but it's not even my best performing compounder. I have several others. What about Apple at $15.50 in March 2013? Games Workshop? Diploma? All now on roughly the same rating as when I first bought them despite multi-bagging. All the worst investing mistakes I have made is by selling long term compounders too early based on some strange idea of them being overvalued. Some companies always look overvalued and they are often the best ones to hold for the longer term as they keep on compounding.

All the best, Si

Ever heard of a a well known value investor called Warren Buffet? He has done quite well down the years, although it is true he has not kept up with the S&P 500, Nasdaq or other growth indexes for the last 10 years or so. We can all Cherry pick.

BT63
Lemon Slice
Posts: 432
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 59 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471818

Postby BT63 » January 10th, 2022, 5:46 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:Ever heard of a a well known value investor called Warren Buffet? He has done quite well down the years, although it is true he has not kept up with the S&P 500, Nasdaq or other growth indexes for the last 10 years or so. We can all Cherry pick.


Wasn't he also ridiculed for underperformance in the late 1990s?

NotSure
Lemon Slice
Posts: 916
Joined: February 5th, 2021, 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 683 times
Been thanked: 314 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471821

Postby NotSure » January 10th, 2022, 5:54 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:Ever heard of a a well known value investor called Warren Buffet?.


Maybe read page 2 of the document simoan linked for a more nuanced appraisal of Buffet's style?

hiriskpaul
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3913
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:04 pm
Has thanked: 703 times
Been thanked: 1552 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471822

Postby hiriskpaul » January 10th, 2022, 5:55 pm

Some more cherry picking.

MSCI USA Growth vs Value annualised returns Dec1974-2009 (35 years)

Growth: 10.7%
Value: 12.5%

2009-2021 (12 years)
Growth: 18.2%
Value: 12.1%

Sometimes growth investing works, sometimes value. Here is something to think about though. Annualised returns again and yes, highly cherry picked:

Mar 1995- Mar 2000:
Growth: 34.1%
Value: 21.1%

Mar 2000- Mar 2005
Growth: -9.4% (Total loss 39%)
Value: +1.3%

Dec 2016 - Dec 2021
Growth: 25.1%
Value: 11.6%

Dec 2021 - Dec 2026
Growth: ?
Value: ?
Place your bets, I will let you know the answer in 2026!

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471824

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2022, 6:01 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:
simoan wrote:
hiriskpaul wrote:
simoan wrote:I think it's at times like this that you need to consider the effect of compounding and why this idea of selling quality growth companies is absurd (assuming your investment timescale is longer than the length of your nose). When I first bought my MSFT holding in 2004 US interest rates were 1%. It was acquired at an average price of $27. FY2004 diluted earnings was 76 cents, so it was roughly on a PER of 36. The same as today! And yet the share price is currently $306. I have several other examples. I don't need to tell you what the share price was for "Value" shares because something bad happened in 2008. In particular, the book value of banks turned out to be a complete and utter illusion.

All the best, Si

Cherry picking or what!

Well, yes, but it's not even my best performing compounder. I have several others. What about Apple at $15.50 in March 2013? Games Workshop? Diploma? All now on roughly the same rating as when I first bought them despite multi-bagging. All the worst investing mistakes I have made is by selling long term compounders too early based on some strange idea of them being overvalued. Some companies always look overvalued and they are often the best ones to hold for the longer term as they keep on compounding.

All the best, Si

Ever heard of a a well known value investor called Warren Buffet? He has done quite well down the years, although it is true he has not kept up with the S&P 500, Nasdaq or other growth indexes for the last 10 years or so. We can all Cherry pick.

You can call it cherry picking if you want but it was just an example to illustrate that you do not need to be clever by trying to "Rotate to Value" as suggested by this thread. I would have had more cherries on my tree if at various points I'd not been duped into thinking some companies were overvalued. This has cost me more money than investments where the share price has gone to zero. I've been hearing the US market is overvalued for many years now and yet these overvalued companies are at the same valuation they were when interest rates were higher years ago, and yet they are way more dominant than they were back then. They can easily cope with inflation too which is the main reason interest rates are rising. Having a longer term perspective that ignores such short term nonsense can pay off if you pick good companies and just do nothing. I was not trying to prove that I'm some kind of genius, quite the opposite!! It's clever dicks that decide to sell growth shares to invest in poorer quality companies that lose out in the long run.

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471827

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2022, 6:12 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:Some more cherry picking.

MSCI USA Growth vs Value annualised returns Dec1974-2009 (35 years)

Growth: 10.7%
Value: 12.5%

2009-2021 (12 years)
Growth: 18.2%
Value: 12.1%

Sometimes growth investing works, sometimes value. Here is something to think about though. Annualised returns again and yes, highly cherry picked:

Mar 1995- Mar 2000:
Growth: 34.1%
Value: 21.1%

Mar 2000- Mar 2005
Growth: -9.4% (Total loss 39%)
Value: +1.3%

Dec 2016 - Dec 2021
Growth: 25.1%
Value: 11.6%

Dec 2021 - Dec 2026
Growth: ?
Value: ?
Place your bets, I will let you know the answer in 2026!

Sorry, I don't find this the least bit useful. I can't even see the cherry tree!!

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6096
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 2342 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471880

Postby dealtn » January 10th, 2022, 9:26 pm

simoan wrote:
Howard Marks wrote a very good newsletter about "Growth vs Value" a few months back if you are interested. I concur with it completely. Here you go: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... -value.pdf



Couldn't agree more. Simple, short, easy to read, and incredible value (pun intended).

Anyone even vaguely interested in this debate should set aside 30 minutes to be educated by this, and then take an extra 30 seconds to subscribe to future words of wisdom from this (free) source.

Hariseldon58
Lemon Slice
Posts: 835
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:42 pm
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 514 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471988

Postby Hariseldon58 » January 11th, 2022, 11:25 am

dealtn wrote:
simoan wrote:
Howard Marks wrote a very good newsletter about "Growth vs Value" a few months back if you are interested. I concur with it completely. Here you go: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... -value.pdf



Couldn't agree more. Simple, short, easy to read, and incredible value (pun intended).

Anyone even vaguely interested in this debate should set aside 30 minutes to be educated by this, and then take an extra 30 seconds to subscribe to future words of wisdom from this (free) source.


I have followed Howard Marks for a number of years his fairly recent book is on Kindle at 99p
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mastering-Market-Cycle-Getting-odds-ebook/dp/B07BH1R2T1/ref=sr_1_4?crid=2PDJSPLLRGVWB&keywords=howard+marks&qid=1641900257&s=books&sprefix=Howard+marks%2Cstripbooks%2C106&sr=1-4

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#471991

Postby simoan » January 11th, 2022, 11:33 am

Hariseldon58 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
simoan wrote:
Howard Marks wrote a very good newsletter about "Growth vs Value" a few months back if you are interested. I concur with it completely. Here you go: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... -value.pdf



Couldn't agree more. Simple, short, easy to read, and incredible value (pun intended).

Anyone even vaguely interested in this debate should set aside 30 minutes to be educated by this, and then take an extra 30 seconds to subscribe to future words of wisdom from this (free) source.


I have followed Howard Marks for a number of years his fairly recent book is on Kindle at 99p
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mastering-Market-Cycle-Getting-odds-ebook/dp/B07BH1R2T1/ref=sr_1_4?crid=2PDJSPLLRGVWB&keywords=howard+marks&qid=1641900257&s=books&sprefix=Howard+marks%2Cstripbooks%2C106&sr=1-4

Worth every penny - all 99 of them! I managed to get it at the same price on Kindle a while ago. I have a hardback copy of his earlier book "The Most Important Thing" which I sadly keep next to the bed so I can read a chapter here and there lest I forget. You can't be reminded of common sense too regularly IMHO.

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#472289

Postby vand » January 12th, 2022, 9:06 am

My value portfolio is mainly composed of dividend paying UK value shares, and here is how it has fared against global growth index in the last 12 months:

Image

A good recent piece here by Phil Huber asking I guess what we all want to know:
https://bpsandpieces.com/blog/posts/the ... ust-begun/

TheMotorcycleBoy
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3246
Joined: March 7th, 2018, 8:14 pm
Has thanked: 2226 times
Been thanked: 588 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#473303

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 15th, 2022, 2:41 pm

My view of "rotation into value", is just that it's buzz phrase which a lot of pundits and the press like to bandy around. Seems quite popular in the US media (e.g. MarketWatch, CNN). I don't think it's anything to get excited about, or react to, because any "benefits" quickly vanish when other players jump onto the band-wagon.

I think that all it really means is when folk think that rates/yield are climbing then equities on a higher PE valuation are of less beneficial than investing in debt/cash, than they were when yields were lower. So people who like to rebalance folis will sell holdings in high PE (low yield) and buy lower PE (higher yields) equities. I don't necessarily think that implies that the stuff being bought into i.e. value is rubbish, it's just priced differently. The market, whilst not being perfect, tries to be efficient, so prices should just reflect current sentiment accordingly.

I personally reckon that the "rotation into value lower PE", is currently manifest in the FTSE350 with money coming out of stocks like CRDA, SPX, HLMA, SCT and into ones like LGEN, TATE etc.

Matt

vand
Lemon Slice
Posts: 758
Joined: January 5th, 2022, 9:00 am
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 350 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#474305

Postby vand » January 19th, 2022, 8:47 am

Nasdaq gets a beating last night, this morning FTSE trades essentially flat.

Over the last 2 months the FTSE100 is up 4% while Nasdaq composite is 10% lower.

People can ignore it or dismiss it, but it is happening.

TheMotorcycleBoy
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3246
Joined: March 7th, 2018, 8:14 pm
Has thanked: 2226 times
Been thanked: 588 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475117

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 21st, 2022, 3:53 pm

The January sale is now on :)

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475141

Postby simoan » January 21st, 2022, 5:02 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:The January sale is now on :)

Yep! Licking my lips at the quality on sale. A good time to be 28% in cash. Very interested in upping my stake in your employer FWIW :)

All the best, Si

TheMotorcycleBoy
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3246
Joined: March 7th, 2018, 8:14 pm
Has thanked: 2226 times
Been thanked: 588 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475165

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 21st, 2022, 5:55 pm

simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:The January sale is now on :)

Yep! Licking my lips at the quality on sale. A good time to be 28% in cash. Very interested in upping my stake in your employer FWIW :)

All the best, Si

Fair play to you!

Despite dissing them a couple of years back, I took the opportunity to open a position in Halma this week. I'm hoping they are still firing on all four cylinders. Do you hold them?

Matt

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475170

Postby simoan » January 21st, 2022, 6:01 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:The January sale is now on :)

Yep! Licking my lips at the quality on sale. A good time to be 28% in cash. Very interested in upping my stake in your employer FWIW :)

All the best, Si

Fair play to you!

Despite dissing them a couple of years back, I took the opportunity to open a position in Halma this week. I'm hoping they are still firing on all four cylinders. Do you hold them?

Matt

No, and not on my radar. Still looks too expensive for my taste on a FY22 PER of 40. Like other top quality companies it got too far ahead of itself IMO and could fall a way further. I do hold Diploma though which I would put in the same category. That's a very long term hold for me and I would say looks better value than Halma currently.

All the best, Si

mc2fool
Lemon Half
Posts: 7891
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:24 am
Has thanked: 7 times
Been thanked: 3049 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475214

Postby mc2fool » January 21st, 2022, 8:44 pm

simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:The January sale is now on :)

Yep! Licking my lips at the quality on sale. A good time to be 28% in cash. Very interested in upping my stake in your employer FWIW :)

All the best, Si

I'll bet retailers love you two ... stick up prices for a year then tickle them down a fraction and you guys declare "sale" and get ready to splurge! :D

Image
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/FTSE/UKX/share-price

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2103
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 469 times
Been thanked: 1465 times

Re: Rotation into Value

#475221

Postby simoan » January 21st, 2022, 9:37 pm

mc2fool wrote:
simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:The January sale is now on :)

Yep! Licking my lips at the quality on sale. A good time to be 28% in cash. Very interested in upping my stake in your employer FWIW :)

All the best, Si

I'll bet retailers love you two ... stick up prices for a year then tickle them down a fraction and you guys declare "sale" and get ready to splurge! :D

You‘re mistaking me for someone that is buying the FTSE100. I have no interest in index tracking the UK index, and little interest in UK large caps, only individual small and mid caps that are trading well, have strong balance sheets, and can pass on input inflation to their customers. I did add some Unilever this week though.


Return to “Investment Strategies”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bruncher, WickedLester and 10 guests