Re: Jeremy Grantham says US market is now in bubble phase
Posted: January 10th, 2023, 10:56 am
Yes, I think the one line summary is that the superbubble has been pricked but not yet fully deflated.
As far as I can tell, his latest public discussion of this was in August:
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... final-act/
There was then a flurry of third party reporting on what he said. I think this pensioncraft video is a good description of JGs thinking at the time:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
It is a particularly pivotal moment for me because I have decided to become much more passive. In particular, I have decided to stop trading options. I had a great year in 2022, but it is very time consuming and somewhat addictive. I don't want to spend so much time on financial matters while I am physically and mentally fit and able to enjoy other activities. I am also cognisant of Warren Buffet's quote "Never risk what you have and need for what we don’t have and don’t need". I could lose a substantial amount of money on options if a major shock came along at the wrong time.
The stopping of option trading has released a large amount of cash that I will passively invest. The question is, what should my asset allocation be? It is good to hear arguments from people like JG as otherwise my instinct would push me towards a very high allocation in global equities.
As far as I can tell, his latest public discussion of this was in August:
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... final-act/
There was then a flurry of third party reporting on what he said. I think this pensioncraft video is a good description of JGs thinking at the time:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
It is a particularly pivotal moment for me because I have decided to become much more passive. In particular, I have decided to stop trading options. I had a great year in 2022, but it is very time consuming and somewhat addictive. I don't want to spend so much time on financial matters while I am physically and mentally fit and able to enjoy other activities. I am also cognisant of Warren Buffet's quote "Never risk what you have and need for what we don’t have and don’t need". I could lose a substantial amount of money on options if a major shock came along at the wrong time.
The stopping of option trading has released a large amount of cash that I will passively invest. The question is, what should my asset allocation be? It is good to hear arguments from people like JG as otherwise my instinct would push me towards a very high allocation in global equities.